Expectations for next year.

[Ed O]

I think all three are reasonable goals, but I don't think they'll be easy and I don't think they should be expectations.

Even winning 60 games, which is a big deal, doesn't guarantee that the team will make the WCF. Too many things have to go right for anything short of a powerhouse team to expect to make it to the conference finals.

Aldridge has a tough road to actually make the all-star team, and there's a chance he could "deserve" it without making it. I still think Oden has big things in store next year and 15/10 seems reasonable to me. Again, though, so many things can go wrong.

Ed O.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

My Expectations (which are close to KingSpeed's):

1 - LMA to average 20/10 for the season. I expect him to perform at his "post All-Star game" level all season.
2 - 59 wins: 34 at home and 25 on the road. We *have* to improve on the road. That's entirely mental.
3 - Roy to maintain. I can't possibly expect him to improve... that's too much to ask of anyone.
4 - Oden to average 14/9 for the season. I expect he'll become the 3rd quarter offensive focus.
5 - 6 playoff wins. Anything more is gravy for me.

 

[barfo]

I expect at least 40 wins. Anything above that requires us to not have major injuries next year. I don't guess LMA will be an all-star. I have hopes for improvement from Oden.

barfo

 

[KingSpeed]

My Expectations (which are close to KingSpeed's):

1 - LMA to average 20/10 for the season. I expect him to perform at his "post All-Star game" level all season.
2 - 59 wins: 34 at home and 25 on the road. We *have* to improve on the road. That's entirely mental.
3 - Roy to maintain. I can't possibly expect him to improve..

I actually do expect him to improve. He upped his scoring average in the playoffs to 27 ppg. I expect that to continue into next season. This guy has not reached his ceiling yet.

 

[Drttimmy]

Expectations?

Joel and Blake just had their career years, and at their age it is highly likely that they will regress. Barring a big trade, 50 wins could be optimistic.

Objectivity is good, but you might be giving the other Western teams too much credit. The West appears to be getting weaker and Portland is on the "uprise". We have some flaws, but objectively looking at the other teams reveals just as many and more.

A team like the Rockets is really vulnerable to a team with low post scorers, as I think they'll soon find out against the Lakers. If we had a legitimate low post threat we would have probably won in 6.

Of course, you might be right if Roy is out for any extended amount of time.

We won a lot of games this year simply by outworking teams--see the number of times we fought back from deficits and also being the top rebounding team. The legs should still be there and the ability to motivate these guys should still be there for McMillian. In a few years when these guys understand the need to pace themselves better, their skill level should improve enough to offset the drop in 48 minute intensity. Thats my take anyway.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Next year will be the year we work smarter, not harder, to beat teams, saving our energy more for the playoff run. Roy's mentally prepared; he knows what's up. And the west is definitely going to be weaker: San Antonio, Utah, Phoenix and Dallas are all going to be older. New Orleans is a shambles. It's a three-team race again: Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers. Only this time, there will be a little more room between 3 and 4.

Next year may be the last year the West has more moderately good teams than the East, too.

 

[anonymous gambler]

If I were the GM- I'd trade Batum/parts for G. Wallace- giving us a third scorer and better D. Then I would sign Bibby or Andre Miller with the full mid-level exception. I would pick up Outlaw's option and either let Blake go or trade him for a slightly better pick. The roster would end up being:

Bibby/Bayless/Sergio
Roy/Rudy
Wallace/Webster
Aldridge/Outlaw/draft pick
Oden/Pryzbilla

Aldridge would continue his improving play and come back stronger after another offseason working out.

Roy would come back slightly better as well- hungrier after his first postseason.

But only one of the two makes the all-star game.

Greg comes back with his old explosiveness- averages 15/10/2/2

The Blazers win 60 wins and lose to the Lakers in the finals- just barely.

 

[Tince]

If I were the GM- I'd trade Batum/parts for G. Wallace- giving us a third scorer and better D. Then I would sign Bibby or Andre Miller with the full mid-level exception. I would pick up Outlaw's option and either let Blake go or trade him for a slightly better pick. The roster would end up being:

Bibby/Bayless/Sergio
Roy/Rudy
Wallace/Webster
Aldridge/Outlaw/draft pick
Oden/Pryzbilla

Aldridge would continue his improving play and come back stronger after another offseason working out.

Roy would come back slightly better as well- hungrier after his first postseason.

But only one of the two makes the all-star game.

Greg comes back with his old explosiveness- averages 15/10/2/2

The Blazers win 60 wins and lose to the Lakers in the finals- just barely.

Who are these "parts" that you are trading along with Batum? Batum's salary is 8 million dollars less than Wallace's, and our highest paid player next year will be Joel.

Bibby and Miller are going to be asking for more than the MLE (which we don't have anyway).

 

[MrJayremmie]

Well we can take back around 9mil in salary more than we give out this off-season.

But I really wouldn't want to trade Batum.

 

[Tince]

Well we can take back around 9mil in salary more than we give out this off-season.

But I really wouldn't want to trade Batum.

And I'm an idiot, thank you!

If we made that trade on draft day, and our salary cap space was less than the MLE, would we then get a MLE exception? I was under the impression that if you go into the off-season with more than the MLE, you do not get a MLE exception, but I'm unsure when the "off-season" begins.

 

[MrJayremmie]

1. You are not an idiot my good man.
2. I heard something like that too, but I can't confirm anything.

 

[anonymous gambler]

Who are these "parts" that you are trading along with Batum? Batum's salary is 8 million dollars less than Wallace's, and our highest paid player next year will be Joel.

Bibby and Miller are going to be asking for more than the MLE (which we don't have anyway).

There are only so many players that will get more than the MLE- it's a matter of numbers- better free agents like Boozer will get those offers.

The parts that we can trade include our trade exception, webster's contract, possibly a resigned Frye if they want him, Outlaw and Blake (about 4 million each)

We're not necessarily below the salary cap for next year- it could be jimmied so that we stay above and get our midlevel- for instance, keeping both Outlaw/Blake and resigning Frye for the right amount to make him an expiring contract. Then we trade with Charlotte and use the midlevel to resign the best free agent loser among the point guards.

 

[Tince]

There are only so many players that will get more than the MLE- it's a matter of numbers- better free agents like Boozer will get those offers.

The parts that we can trade include our trade exception, webster's contract, possibly a resigned Frye if they want him, Outlaw and Blake (about 4 million each)

We're not necessarily below the salary cap for next year- it could be jimmied so that we stay above and get our midlevel- for instance, keeping both Outlaw/Blake and resigning Frye for the right amount to make him an expiring contract. Then we trade with Charlotte and use the midlevel to resign the best free agent loser among the point guards.

I understand, but I thought Frye and most likely Blake, would be gone in the plan listed above.

I would expect Bibby and Miller to stay with their current teams if all they can get is the MLE.

 

[anonymous gambler]

I understand, but I thought Frye and most likely Blake, would be gone in the plan listed above.

I would expect Bibby and Miller to stay with their current teams if all they can get is the MLE.

Yeah, the plan depends on them preferring to come to Portland, money being equal. I think it's a good sign that Miller skipped his last team meeting.

Of course, this all would have been easier if we'd traded for a small forward at the trade deadline, when we still had Raef's contract.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm pretty much in favor of Brandon Roy's expectations for next season: an NBA championship.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/05/after_bitter_loss_sweeter_visi.html

 

[Tince]

I'm pretty much in favor of Brandon Roy's expectations for next season: an NBA championship.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/05/after_bitter_loss_sweeter_visi.html

That's his goal, not his expectation.

I think a lot of people on this board think those two are one in the same, but they're not.

 

[e_blazer]

That's his goal, not his expectation.

I think a lot of people on this board think those two are one in the same, but they're not.

Granted, there's a degree of difference, but if you want to achieve your goals, they'd better also be your expectations.

 

[TripTango]

Granted, there's a degree of difference, but if you want to achieve your goals, they'd better also be your expectations.

So you are on the Blazers? Awesome -- keep those goals and expectations high, my man.

As for me, MY goals for the coming season are almost the same as last year: attend as many home games as my budget allows, and celebrate big wins by drinking as much as my body allows. I feel I was pretty successful at this last season, but there's always room for improvement. This year I'd like to diversify my Free-Throw Jinx repertoire while coming up with a few original chants. Starting a clever nickname would be awesome, but maybe expecting a bit too much at this stage of my fan career.

 

[Nikolokolus]

So you are on the Blazers? Awesome -- keep those goals and expectations high, my man.

As for me, MY goals for the coming season are almost the same as last year: attend as many home games as my budget allows, and celebrate big wins by drinking as much as my body allows. I feel I was pretty successful at this last season, but there's always room for improvement. This year I'd like to diversify my Free-Throw Jinx repertoire while coming up with a few original chants. Starting a clever nickname would be awesome, but maybe expecting a bit too much at this stage of my fan career.

Post of the day!

 

[Public Defender]

I agree with Roy, that at this point, the Blazers' goal ought to be a championship.

But as far as expectations go, I think the Blazers should win a first round series next year. If they can manage more than that, it's gravy. But in terms of moving forward in their development, and preparing themselves for a championship window, that's the next step. The West is still going to be really tough, and the Blazers are going to have setbacks like any team, so if they can take one significant step forward - repeating as a top four team, but actually keeping HCA and winning a series - that'd be great.

 

[THE HCP]

55 wins and lose in the 2nd round.