Finishing record prediction

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How many wins will the Blazers finish the season with?

  • Total voters
    64
Rodolfo

Rodolfo

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Oct 20, 2008
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47
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48
Thought I'd post a poll on where everyone thinks we'll finish the season in the Win Column.
I'm feeling 52 wins.
 
I also am thinking 52 wins.
 
I've said 52 since the beginning of the season. No reason to change now.
 
I picked 52 games before the season started and am sticking with it.
 
Nate is going to continue his trend:(the year before McMillan) 21-61.....then 32-50......then 41-41....... now 52-30........next 61-21? (wishful thinking, my guess would be 55-57 if we make some tweaks to the roster).

How many wins do you guys think it will take for Nate to have a good chance for COY?

55?....we do have the youngest playing rotation in the L, that should be worth something shouldn't it?
 
I started the season at 53, and I am sticking to my predcition...the schedule is not nearly as tough as the first half...can the youngsters hold up...the RIP CITY REVIVAL continues!!!
 
My preseason prediction was 52, before the blazers wouldn't let Oden work out. I then, still before the season, amended it to 50. I'm sticking to my 50 win prediction (which was a lot higher than many, but is now apparently lower than many). If I'm too low, I will be thrilled!!

Who the heck put 46 or lower? If we win only 12 of our last 27, we finish with 47. Pretty damn pessimistic.
 
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I'm giving them a comfy cushion of 15-12 for the rest of the way, despite the fact that they haven't had a single 15-12 stretch or worse at any point this whole season. Excluding the top four teams in the league (with whom we are 2-5 against), Portland is 12-9 against teams with records of .500 or better. I'm betting we do better than 4-7 against that tier (I personally feel 6-5). I'm going with 1-2 against the top tier (We have to beat the Lakers at least once. We always beat them twice) and 10-3 against the under .500 tier, which would be consistent with our 21-6 record against it. That would leave us between 15-12 and 17-10, or 50-52 wins.
 
I can't remember exactly what I said in the preseaon prediction thread -- I think it was 47 wins maybe? I went with 48, because I'm trying to ....

beepos800.jpg
 
Wizard Mentor said:
My preseason prediction was 52, before the blazers wouldn't let Oden work out. I then, still before the season, amended it to 50. I'm sticking to my 50 win prediction (which was a lot higher than many, but is now apparently lower than many). If I'm too low, I will be thrilled!!

Who the heck put 46 or lower? If we win only 12 of our last 27, we finish with 47. Pretty damn pessimistic.
Click to expand...

Do you really have to look to figure that out? That's a lot more predictable than our final record.
 
MARIS is one of the two who predicted 55 or more and MIXUM is one of the two who predicted 46 or less. LOVE IT! I still would love to give them a thread and argue about Sergio... that would be awesome.

Anyway, I picked 50. We have a pretty tough schedule from here on out, so I think 50 would be awesome, and will probably get us around 6th.
 
The Blazers have 27 games left. To win just 46 games would mean the Blazers would go 9-18. That seems almost ludicrous to me.
 
15-12 is what we need to go to win 50 games! How awesome is that. I really couldn't even imagine us being in this position when I did my preseason predictions.
 
I think I started the season at 55 wins.
We're currently 35-20, or winning at .636. That's after playing the hardest part of our schedule.
To get to 55 wins we'd need to go 20-7, or win at a .740 rate.
Oden is down right now, but he sounds like he'll be coming back soon. Otherwise, Portland is pretty healthy, unlike a lot of other normally tough teams in the league. (Ginobili, Arenas, Garnett, McGrady, Amare, Boozer.)
I'll stick with my original prediction, but I realize it's really on the high end, and I'll be happy with anything in the 50's.
 
Speaking of preseason predictions, those of you who participated in the Western Conference Prediction Game (remember that), I have you on record!
 
at the beginning of the year I predicted 55 wins if they avoided injuries to key players. With Batum's emergence, I don't view the loss of Martell as a big deal. Blake is a borderline key player though and losing Oden for stretches definitely hurts so my projection slides down a bit. I went with 54 but probably should have chosen 53.

STOMP
 
STOMP said:
at the beginning of the year I predicted 55 wins if they avoided injuries to key players. With Batum's emergence, I don't view the loss of Martell as a big deal. Blake is a borderline key player though and losing Oden for stretches definitely hurts so my projection slides down a bit. I went with 54 but probably should have chosen 53.

STOMP
Click to expand...

I think most teams undergo injuries to guys at the Blake/Oden level. Probably nearly all teams do. (Just like most teams probably expect to have one guy surprise them with a breakout year--as Batum has for us.) And the depth of the Blazers makes them even more able to withstand injury setbacks.

The key is to avoid injuries to your elite players more than anything, and Portland has been reasonably lucky there. Roy has missed 4, and Aldridge hasn't missed any.

The big reason I see that my 55 win prediction is a little bit of a stretch is that I just overrated Rudy and Oden.

As good as Rudy has been, I thought he'd be more dominant. He just looked so good in the Gold Medal game, and I bought into the hype. But his midrange shot has been surprisingly bad, and he hasn't been the assist guy I thought he'd be. Teams have learned to play him for the 3 pointer or the lob. That's ok, though--I can see the other tools in him and he'll get there eventually.

And I hadn't anticipated how much foul trouble Oden would have. Shaq averaged 4 fouls a game in his first year, and he was older, he'd played basketball the season before, and he wasn't 3 steps slowed from microfracture surgery. And now it's more of a "guard's game" where it's easier for big men to pick up fouls by playing slashers too physically. I should have taken that lesson to heart. In hindsight it seems pretty obvious that my expectations of him weren't that realistic.

In the final stretch I'm hoping an easier schedule and more experience for Oden and Fernandez will lead to a higher winning percentage than we've seen so far.
 
crandc said:
Speaking of preseason predictions, those of you who participated in the Western Conference Prediction Game (remember that), I have you on record!
Click to expand...

Mind posting that? I seem to remember I picked us 4th, but not sure.
 
So after 56 votes over 83% of the voters think we'll hit at least 50 wins. I think we've got it in us to make it happen! Playoffs baby!
 
I guessed 50 before the regular season began, and I suppose I'll stick with it. I'm hoping for 52-54, though...
 
i went with 49.

Just went game by game After tonight's Houston loss. That's just 14-12 with 13 home games remaining.

I went very conservative to the point of almost going with "sure" wins and "sure" losses. Didn't try and steal any games either way because those end up canceling each other out anyway.


Hope it's enough. It should be.
 
Looks like we're going to get at least 52 wins. 54 sounds pretty damn sweet too!
 
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