Fish or cut bait.

[BGrantFan]

you've suggested that Oden's best days athletically may be behind him, that he might be just mediocre once he returns... very little in the history of hoops supports these possibilities being what we're likely to see transpire.

You are making up an argument that I never made. Where did I say Oden would be mediocre? Why? That said, isn't it possible that his best days athletically may be behind him?

I don't see why they aren't good examples of how broken bones do heal and guys can return to the pounding of hoops. They are much older so expectations for their production should be lowered accordingly, but certainly they had the exact same sort of critics who didn't believe that they would ever make it back like we hear from Greg's detractors on a daily basis. Since GO will be 23 next season and this is something he's expected to make it fully back from, the projections for his production should still be on the rise.

STOMP

A counter point could be that it may be years before Oden is healthy enough to be consistently productive. If that is the case (I'm not saying it will be), is it in the best interest of the organization to wait years for that to happen, or would it make more sense to try and get some more immediate help by using Oden in a trade? As I posted, I want Oden to stay and to be healthy, but I think some of you are taking an either/or position. There is a lot of gray involved for me with regard to Oden and how his career here will play out over time.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Where did I say Oden would be mediocre?

Right here:

Grant Hill was an elite player before his injuries. He's a 15 PER player post-injuries. If Oden is going to be mediocre once he gets healthy, then it may be time to cut bait. Plus, Ilgauskas isn't really an inside player. His best offense is taking an open 15' set shot. He was never close to being the athlete that Oden is/was.

BNM

 

[BGrantFan]

Right here:



BNM

Touche, but I was replying to STOMP's assertion that Grant Hill was an argument for keeping Oden. I don't expect him to be a mediocre player, but since Grant Hill is one, I was assuming in that hypothetical that Oden would be one as well.

 

[STOMP]

You are making up an argument that I never made. Where did I say Oden would be mediocre? Why? That said, isn't it possible that his best days athletically may be behind him?

BNM already linked the quote. Yes, most anything is possible including Greg's best athletic days being behind him. Extremely unlikely, but possible.

A counter point could be that it may be years before Oden is healthy enough to be consistently productive. If that is the case (I'm not saying it will be), is it in the best interest of the organization to wait years for that to happen, or would it make more sense to try and get some more immediate help by using Oden in a trade? As I posted, I want Oden to stay and to be healthy, but I think some of you are taking an either/or position. There is a lot of gray involved for me with regard to Oden and how his career here will play out over time.

Unless someone is clairvoyant there is no way of knowing whats going to happen with the health of any of the players. About the best guessing that can be done to project the future is to look at the general trends of the masses and the relative health of the individuals. Greg's busted kneecap is projected to be healed by the end of this season not years from now. If we're going to consider the extremely unlikely, it's possible Jerryd Bayless grows a foot between now and the next training camp and creates a real logjam mess of how to keep Portland's many centers happy.... omg! what are we going to do

STOMP

 

[BGrantFan]

Unless someone is clairvoyant there is no way of knowing whats going to happen with the health of any of the players. About the best guessing that can be done to project the future is to look at the general trends of the masses and the relative health of the individuals. Greg's busted kneecap is projected to be healed by the end of this season not years from now. If we're going to consider the extremely unlikely, it's possible Jerryd Bayless grows a foot between now and the next training camp and creates a real logjam mess of how to keep Portland's many centers happy.... omg! what are we going to do

STOMP

Fair enough. Recent history shows that Oden gets injured, and that the injuries cause him to miss significant chunks of a season. Nobody knows what the future holds. Hopefully it isn't what we've seen in the past. I also don't get the Bayless comparision, but I'm sure there was a point. There really is no right or wrong answer on Oden, since nobody I know can predict the future.

 

[oldmangrouch]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

No, none of us can predict the future, etc, etc. We can, however, learn from the past. We have 3 years of data that says that Oden is a huge risk.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

 

[Wheels]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

No, none of us can predict the future, etc, etc. We can, however, learn from the past. We have 3 years of data that says that Oden is a huge risk.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

so what do you do about the situation? Realistically who do we get for him? I'd rather gamble on his being a building block for a title.. than trade him for someone who is sure to get us into the 2nd round and the occasional WCF. Thats what it comes down to for me.

 

[RoyToy]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

No, none of us can predict the future, etc, etc. We can, however, learn from the past. We have 3 years of data that says that Oden is a huge risk.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

If he wasn't 22 years old and a possible senior in college right now I'd agree with you. Instead, he's young as shit and still very much worth the time considering his latest injury isn't very serious at all.

If Oden was riddled with injuries in college and came out everyone on this forum would want to take a flier on him, and so would everyone else in the NBA.

You're entitled to your opinion I guess.

 

[oldmangrouch]

BTW, some of you need to go back and reread the first post.

The question before the house was whether you would trade Oden for the *Kings'* pick. Not the 30th pick, or the 20th pick, or the 15th pick. A top 6 pick, with a reasonable shot at the top 3.

Either course is a gamble - but which is the lesser gamble? Sorry, but I really can't conceive of anybody saying keeping Oden is the better gamble!

 

[RoyToy]

BTW, some of you need to go back and reread the first post.

The question before the house was whether you would trade Oden for the *Kings'* pick. Not the 30th pick, or the 20th pick, or the 15th pick. A top 6 pick, with a reasonable shot at the top 3.

Either course is a gamble - but which is the lesser gamble? Sorry, but I really can't conceive of anybody saying keeping Oden is the better gamble!

That's because you don't seem to value what a potentially healthy Greg Oden can do for the Blazers. You're so frustrated you aren't allowing yourself to see the other side. You're like one of those people you have to tell to go cool off before you can have a rational conversation.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

No, none of us can predict the future, etc, etc. We can, however, learn from the past. We have 3 years of data that says that Oden is a huge risk.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

For me, you dont' even start considering it for another 5 years when Oden will be 27 - a time when many big men enter the prime of their careers. Not the answer YOU wanted to hear, but Oden has shown he is insanely productive when on the court in spite of all the injuries and his very limited NBA experience.

We have two other proven NBA centers under contract and hold the Bird rights to both. I see no reason to give up on Oden and trade him for pennies on the dollar when his value is at rock bottom. Frankly, that seems like a pretty fucking stupid thing to do. What are you going to get for him right now? Not much - nothing close to what he could be if he's able to put the injuries behind him. Big men who can dominate at both ends are very rare. You don't give up on one who has shown he can be extremely productive at such a young age with so little experience.

And I don't see how keeping Oden holds us back anymore than trading him. If we trade him when his value is at its lowest, are we going to getback something that makes us title contenders? No way. Trading him makes us good enough to be a one and done team for years, maybe occasionally making the second round, never getting a high enough draft pick to grab an impact player in the draft. Really, noit a whole lot more than if we keep him and he's injured for the next five years. On the other hand, if we keep him, and he puts the injuries behind, it greatly increases our odds at contending for a championship.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

That's because you don't seem to value what a potentially healthy Greg Oden can do for the Blazers. You're so frustrated you aren't allowing yourself to see the other side. You're like one of those people you have to tell to go cool off before you can have a rational conversation.

I disagree.

 

[Boob-No-More]

BTW, we once had another young center, taken 1st overall, who battled injuries the entire five years he was in Porrtland - missing a total of 201 games in five seasons. If we would have traded him after his third season, we'd have exactly zero NBA championship banners hanging from the Rose Garden rafters.

Oh, and he was older as rookie than Oden is now.

BNM

 

[STOMP]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug?

I've answered your question many times, you just haven't agreed with the answer. I'm willing to trade anyone on the roster for the right deal. I'd be more willing to pull the plug on Greg if he actually had sustained an injury or two that would affect him longterm or if he hadn't shown significant improvement from year 1 to year 2. Hoops is a rough sport and guys do get injured all the time. You seem to see Greg's injuries as inevitable/unavoidable while I see them as pretty random and am willing to roll with the punches because of the obvious promise in his game.

btw... remember our debates this past offseason about the 2nd year Blazers ramping it up in their Soph years? Well of course injuries have affected 3 of the 4, but a quick check of the respective PERs reflects what I was predicting at least so far. Jerryd's PER has gone from 8.2 to 15.2, Batum 12.9 to 15.9, Greg 18.1 to 23.4. Rudy has struggled following back surgery falling from 15.5 to 13.4... I'm expecting that number to rise as we go along.

I'm done. I am sick of this argument.

sure, whatever...

STOMP

 

[RoyToy]

BTW, we once had another young center, taken 1st overall, who battled injuries the entire five years he was in Porrtland - missing a total of 201 games in five seasons. If we would have traded him after his third season, we'd have exactly zero NBA championship banners hanging from the Rose Garden rafters.

Oh, and he was older as rookie than Oden is now.

BNM

Nope, time to give him up for potentially the 6th pick in the NBA draft! Yeah! And none of the players touch Greg Oden's potential! Yeah!

 

[Shooter]

Not me. I believe in Greg Oden and his future health.

Do you really? I'd be interested in hearing your reasons for such optimism.

 

[hasoos]

Oden pretty much has one more shot at it IMO, and if he gets busted up again, then I am pretty much done waiting for anything good to come of that.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Oden pretty much has one more shot at it IMO, and if he gets busted up again, then I am pretty much done waiting for anything good to come of that.

Which is sort of why I posted this thread in the first place. Even now I highly doubt the Kings would make the proposed deal, but with one more injury, forget about it; Greg's value will be basically null.

The gamble comes down to which do you think is more likely, Greg putting his injury woes behind him, or if not do you try to get some value before it evaporates completely? -- I still see either outcome being almost equally likely, which is why I was so fascinated by the idea.

 

[BGrantFan]

If he wasn't 22 years old and a possible senior in college right now I'd agree with you. Instead, he's young as shit and still very much worth the time considering his latest injury isn't very serious at all.

If Oden was riddled with injuries in college and came out everyone on this forum would want to take a flier on him, and so would everyone else in the NBA.

You're entitled to your opinion I guess.

If Oden had missed 67% of his collegiate games the past three years, which is what he's missed for the Blazers, I don't think anybody would take him #1 overall in the draft. Taking a chance on a guy is one thing. Building your franchise around him is quite another.

 

[Minstrel]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

I and others have answered that question several times. Unless you refuse to count as a "straight answer" anything other than "Pull the plug now. He's the greatest disappointment in a line of Blazers disappointments."

At this point in time, what it would take for me to give up on him are two more seasons of either serious injury or poor play. At that point, I'd be willing to say that Oden is almost certainly not going to be a franchise player.

I'm sure you think that's a crazy amount of time to give Oden, but I fail to see how it's not a straight answer. There's no prevarication or attempts to avoid setting a line. Are we agreed that you've received a "straight answer" to your question and you won't continue to every few months say "I ask this and ask this and no one will give me a straight answer?"

 

[RoyToy]

If Oden had missed 67% of his collegiate games the past three years, which is what he's missed for the Blazers, I don't think anybody would take him #1 overall in the draft. Taking a chance on a guy is one thing. Building your franchise around him is quite another.

I know he wouldn't go #1, which is why I didn't say that. I did say however teams would be lining up to take a chance on him because he's still really young. It just puts it into perspective.

Giving up on him before he's 25 would be a huge mistake imo. His potential is so big it's just ridiculous to even think about.

 

[Minstrel]

Do you really? I'd be interested in hearing your reasons for such optimism.

My reason is that he has yet to sustain an injury of the type that changes a player's athletic ability. And that he was largely injury free through his five years of playing "high level ball" prior to the NBA (high school, AAU, college).

Right now, there's no particular reason to believe that it's worse than two very bad strokes of luck, neither of which were structurally damaging. Had he struggled with injuries throughout his playing career (including the levels I mentioned above) then he'd clearly just be an injury magnet. Right now, I don't think that is or should be the default expectation.

 

[oldmangrouch]

For me, you dont' even start considering it for another 5 years when Oden will be 27 - a time when many big men enter the prime of their careers. Not the answer YOU wanted to hear, but Oden has shown he is insanely productive when on the court in spite of all the injuries and his very limited NBA experience.

BNM

You're right, not an answer I agree with - but is is a straight answer, and I appreciate that.

And again - the premise of the thread is not to trade Oden for pennies on the dollar, but to trade him for a high lotto pick in a what appears to be a pretty good draft.

 

[BGrantFan]

I know he wouldn't go #1, which is why I didn't say that. I did say however teams would be lining up to take a chance on him because he's still really young. It just puts it into perspective.

Giving up on him before he's 25 would be a huge mistake imo. His potential is so big it's just ridiculous to even think about.

I agree that giving up on him now is a bad idea, and I'd like to see him locked up for 4-5 more years this summer at a fair price. With that agreement, however, comes the very real chance that it may not end up being the correct decision. I'm in the keep Oden camp, but I won't blame the trainers, organization, the coach, the refs, or unicorns if he doesn't become the player I think he will be in a few years. Injuries are a very real concern. I just don't see how people can honestly deny that injury should not factor into any decision on Oden.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I and others have answered that question several times. Unless you refuse to count as a "straight answer" anything other than "Pull the plug now. He's the greatest disappointment in a line of Blazers disappointments."

At this point in time, what it would take for me to give up on him are two more seasons of either serious injury or poor play. At that point, I'd be willing to say that Oden is almost certainly not going to be a franchise player.

I'm sure you think that's a crazy amount of time to give Oden, but I fail to see how it's not a straight answer. There's no prevarication or attempts to avoid setting a line. Are we agreed that you've received a "straight answer" to your question and you won't continue to every few months say "I ask this and ask this and no one will give me a straight answer?"

OK, I was guilty of hyperbole. A few people are willing to give a concrete answer, but you must admit that most are just saying "not yet."

 

[BGrantFan]

OK, I was guilty of hyperbole. A few people are willing to give a concrete answer, but you must admit that most are just saying "not yet."

I don't really see a problem with "not yet" as an answer. Depending on what Pritchard decides this summer, we could have another entire season before making the big decision on Greg.

 

[Minstrel]

OK, I was guilty of hyperbole. A few people are willing to give a concrete answer, but you must admit that most are just saying "not yet."

Yeah, but I understand why people say that. It's somewhat hard to say when you'll "give up" on something. Generally, it's an "I'll know it when it happens" thing.

To do it with Oden, I basically had to think back to what caused me to give up on other players in the past.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I agree that giving up on him now is a bad idea, and I'd like to see him locked up for 4-5 more years this summer at a fair price. With that agreement, however, comes the very real chance that it may not end up being the correct decision. I'm in the keep Oden camp, but I won't blame the trainers, organization, the coach, the refs, or unicorns if he doesn't become the player I think he will be in a few years. Injuries are a very real concern. I just don't see how people can honestly deny that injury should not factor into any decision on Oden.

You hit on a very important point. In the next few months, one of 3 things is going to happen.

Option A). Oden agrees to a cheap extension that mitigates the risk to the team. Not likely.

Option B). Oden demands an LMA/Bargnani type extension. I know many people disagree, but I consider this suicidal for the team.

Option C). Oden doesn't sign an extension, starts down the road to free agency, and the team risks losing him for nothing.

 

[BGrantFan]

Yeah, but I understand why people say that. It's somewhat hard to say when you'll "give up" on something. Generally, it's an "I'll know it when it happens" thing.

To do it with Oden, I basically had to think back to what caused me to give up on other players in the past.

I don't really give up on Blazers. If they are on the team, I hope they help the team win games. Is there a moment of clarity when a personal decision is made to finally give up on a player? I've yet to experience that feeling. I'm still convinced that Charles Smith could have been a legitimate starting SG.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I've answered your question many times, you just haven't agreed with the answer. I'm willing to trade anyone on the roster for the right deal. I'd be more willing to pull the plug on Greg if he actually had sustained an injury or two that would affect him longterm or if he hadn't shown significant improvement from year 1 to year 2. Hoops is a rough sport and guys do get injured all the time. You seem to see Greg's injuries as inevitable/unavoidable while I see them as pretty random and am willing to roll with the punches because of the obvious promise in his game.

btw... remember our debates this past offseason about the 2nd year Blazers ramping it up in their Soph years? Well of course injuries have affected 3 of the 4, but a quick check of the respective PERs reflects what I was predicting at least so far. Jerryd's PER has gone from 8.2 to 15.2, Batum 12.9 to 15.9, Greg 18.1 to 23.4. Rudy has struggled following back surgery falling from 15.5 to 13.4... I'm expecting that number to rise as we go along.

sure, whatever...

STOMP

You know, I'm supposed to be the cranky one...right?

Not to nitpick, but I actually said I thought Batum could make a big jump this season. I want to believe in Bayless as well - but the numbers disguise the fact that he is alarmingly erratic. Right now, he is in the Webster/Outlaw "who the heck knows what you will get any given game" category. On Rudy, we will just have to agree to disagree.