Five Games Til Christmas. Time To Turn the Corner.

[KingSpeed]

@ Suns
Warriors
Magic
Timberwolves
Pelicans

All 5 of these games are winnable and if we win them, a 15-16 record will probably be good for 7th in the West. On top of that, it would move our record to 10-4 when Dame and Carmelo both play. It's been an awful season so far but if we can run the table here, it'll make for a very Merry Christmas. Making a couple trades, pick up a FA, and bring Nurk back. Win 50 games and push the Lakers or Clippers in the second round.

 

[Labinot41]

No games are winnable this year

 

[ABM]

@ Suns
Warriors
Magic
Timberwolves
Pelicans

All 5 of these games are winnable and if we win them, a 15-16 record will probably be good for 7th in the West. On top of that, it would move our record to 10-4 when Dame and Carmelo both play. It's been an awful season so far but if we can run the table here, it'll make for a very Merry Christmas. Making a couple trades, pick up a FA, and bring Nurk back. Win 50 games and push the Lakers or Clippers in the second round.

Gotta love your energy...

 

[stampedehero]

The team could go on a five game streak. We have the means to accomplish the goal.

 

[wizenheimer]

the schedule is certainly 'built' for a mini hot streak before Christmas, but I'm inclined to think Portland will find a way to lose one of the next 5 games....they just can't seem to avoid a really bad game every week

for a while I've been thinking they'd end up at 17-17 by the end of the year. Looks more like it will be 16-18, but maybe they'll surprise me. 15-19 would be bad

problem is they are 1-10 against teams with winning records and they have a 20 game stretch starting New Year's day when they play 13 teams with winning records, the last I counted. If they are 5 or 6 games below .500 by the 54 game mark, they are going to have a difficult time avoiding a 7th or 8th seed, and I don't think they have a prayer against either of the LA teams in the playoffs

 

[TBpup]

One would hope they could have a winning streak against those mostly garbage teams.....at home no less. Not sure it will prove anything about turning a corner unless that translates to some momentum against teams they might actually play in the Playoffs.

 

[illmatic99]

It's like you haven't paid attention to this team all year. No game is truly winnable.

 

[kjironman1]

The team might change here in the next week.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

One would hope they could have a winning streak against those mostly garbage teams.....at home no less. Not sure it will prove anything about turning a corner unless that translates to some momentum against teams they might actually play in the Playoffs.

3 of those garbage teams have better records than the Blazers do...

 

[TBpup]

3 of those garbage teams have better records than the Blazers do...

...which is very sad given that none of those teams have Dame/CJ/Melo/Whiteside.

 

[e_blazer]

I’m sitting here trying to figure out what some of you are finding fault with about KingSpeed’s post. He’s right in that all of those games are “winnable”. None of the opponents are top teams and four of the games are at home. Additionally, the team has had several days off to work on playing more cohesive basketball. They are games the Blazers should have circled as must wins if they want to get into contention for a playoff spot. Winnable doesn’t imply that winning all five is a lock, but that it should be the goal.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I’m sitting here trying to figure out what some of you are finding fault with about KingSpeed’s post. He’s right in that all of those games are “winnable”. None of the opponents are top teams and four of the games are at home. Additionally, the team has had several days off to work on playing more cohesive basketball. They are games the Blazers should have circled as must wins if they want to get into contention for a playoff spot. Winnable doesn’t imply that winning all five is a lock, but that it should be the goal.

I dont think anyone found “fault” in his post though. Just pointing out that while they’re “winnable” games, the Blazers could lose some of them and a few of those teams actually have better records than the Blazers do.

i appreciate KS’s optimism, and I hope they win all those games but the conversation isnt calling out KS for being wrong.

BTW, havent seen you around that much lately hope you’re doing well!

 

[THE HCP]

I’m sitting here trying to figure out what some of you are finding fault with about KingSpeed’s post. He’s right in that all of those games are “winnable”. None of the opponents are top teams and four of the games are at home. Additionally, the team has had several days off to work on playing more cohesive basketball. They are games the Blazers should have circled as must wins if they want to get into contention for a playoff spot. Winnable doesn’t imply that winning all five is a lock, but that it should be the goal.

It’s like when you are watching golf....... and Jim Nantz says, “This is a make-able putt.” Well, yes, TECHNICALLY it is, but aren’t they ALL make-able Jim?

 

[illmatic99]

It’s like when you are watching golf....... and Jim Nantz says, “This is a make-able putt.” Well, yes, TECHNICALLY it is, but aren’t they ALL make-able Jim?

Having lost to CLE and GS already, and blown out by OKC at home, we are the team that most of these opponents should consider as favorable, not the other way around. The only two teams we have a better record than among those listed, we have already lost to.

 

[e_blazer]

I dont think anyone found “fault” in his post though. Just pointing out that while they’re “winnable” games, the Blazers could lose some of them and a few of those teams actually have better records than the Blazers do.

i appreciate KS’s optimism, and I hope they win all those games but the conversation isnt calling out KS for being wrong.

BTW, havent seen you around that much lately hope you’re doing well!

I’m doing fine, thanks for asking. I’m out of town visiting my son and his family. I haven’t been posting as much partly because of that and, I guess, partly because the negative vibe around here isn’t much fun.

I think that the Blazers will get things together and start winning, as long as there aren’t more injuries. There’s just been so much upheaval in the roster that they’re behind where other teams are at. I have a lot of trust in Dame’s ability to push the team to a winning path. He’s done it so many times in his time here that I just expect to see it. Now looks like a good time to start.

 

[e_blazer]

It’s like when you are watching golf....... and Jim Nantz says, “This is a make-able putt.” Well, yes, TECHNICALLY it is, but aren’t they ALL make-able Jim?

You lost me at “watching golf”.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I’m doing fine, thanks for asking. I’m out of town visiting my son and his family. I haven’t been posting as much partly because of that and, I guess, partly because the negative vibe around here isn’t much fun.

I think that the Blazers will get things together and start winning, as long as there aren’t more injuries. There’s just been so much upheaval in the roster that they’re behind where other teams are at. I have a lot of trust in Dame’s ability to push the team to a winning path. He’s done it so many times in his time here that I just expect to see it. Now looks like a good time to start.

I felt like I was pretty positive til Hood got hurt, that seems to have finished me. Im still gonna be watching and cheering though. Anyways glad you’re doing well.

 

[GhostOfPGA]

Fuck... 10-21 now

 

[Hoopguru]

the schedule is certainly 'built' for a mini hot streak before Christmas, but I'm inclined to think Portland will find a way to lose one of the next 5 games....they just can't seem to avoid a really bad game every week

for a while I've been thinking they'd end up at 17-17 by the end of the year. Looks more like it will be 16-18, but maybe they'll surprise me. 15-19 would be bad

problem is they are 1-10 against teams with winning records and they have a 20 game stretch starting New Year's day when they play 13 teams with winning records, the last I counted. If they are 5 or 6 games below .500 by the 54 game mark, they are going to have a difficult time avoiding a 7th or 8th seed, and I don't think they have a prayer against either of the LA teams in the playoffs

Missing most of the starting front court has been a huge part in why we have struggled.
I the Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers were missing their starting front courts most of the season they's have struggles also. Just my opine.

 

[wizenheimer]

Missing most of the starting front court has been a huge part in why we have struggled.
I the Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers were missing their starting front courts most of the season they's have struggles also. Just my opine.

ok now, Nurk doesn't count because he's been out for months, his absence is/was baked into the condition of the team, and Whiteside is a more than adequate replacement. Plus, the Blazers were essentially 9-14 with Hood so he wasn't making any significant difference in their winning rate. Hood's injury is just an excuse, IMO, and it's not one that withstands any scrutiny

so all Portland is really missing when it comes to their current record is Zach. But if you begin to extrapolate using winshares/48 then winshares:

winshares/48:
CJ McCollum .065 Nassir Little .055 Zach Collins .052 Anfernee Simons .044

winshares:
CJ McCollum 1.3 Nassir Little 0.3 Zach Collins 0.1 Anfernee Simons 0.5

...you end up with 23 more games of Zach being worth about 1 more win. But that's assuming, falsely, that the combination of Melo, Hezonja, and lately Skal don't add any more winshares. In other words, Zach playing in all these games he missed might have been worth 1 more win, and maybe 2 at best, if you assume he left an outsized hole because of poor roster construction. I think that's a bad assumption though, mainly because the two biggest failures of this Portland team, by far, have been perimeter defense and rebounding...and Zach is good at neither

the point being I think people are leaning way too heavily on the injuries to excuse the performance of this team. There's a lot more wrong with this team than the injuries

 

[Strenuus]

Wins against garbage teams mean nothing if we can't win against teams we would actually meet in the playoffs.

 

[Hoopguru]

ok now, Nurk doesn't count because he's been out for months, his absence is/was baked into the condition of the team, and Whiteside is a more than adequate replacement. Plus, the Blazers were essentially 9-14 with Hood so he wasn't making any significant difference in their winning rate. Hood's injury is just an excuse, IMO, and it's not one that withstands any scrutiny

so all Portland is really missing when it comes to their current record is Zach. But if you begin to extrapolate using winshares/48 then winshares:

winshares/48:
CJ McCollum .065 Nassir Little .055 Zach Collins .052 Anfernee Simons .044

winshares:
CJ McCollum 1.3 Nassir Little 0.3 Zach Collins 0.1 Anfernee Simons 0.5

...you end up with 23 more games of Zach being worth about 1 more win. But that's assuming, falsely, that the combination of Melo, Hezonja, and lately Skal don't add any more winshares. In other words, Zach playing in all these games he missed might have been worth 1 more win, and maybe 2 at best, if you assume he left an outsized hole because of poor roster construction. I think that's a bad assumption though, mainly because the two biggest failures of this Portland team, by far, have been perimeter defense and rebounding...and Zach is good at neither

the point being I think people are leaning way too heavily on the injuries to excuse the performance of this team. There's a lot more wrong with this team than the injuries

I agree that this team has more wrong but not even having Nurk & Collins together is a factor. So you think based on your stats that if Nurk and Collins were healthy, even without Melo we'd pick up 1 win?

 

[Hoopguru]

I would think if we had the following team healthy from day one we have at least 5 more wins than we do now? I may be wrong?

Center - Nurk/Whiteside/Collins/Skal
Big Forward - Collins/Melo/Skal/Tolliver/Herz
Small Foward - Hood/Baze/Ant/Melo
SG - CJ/Ant/Baze/Hood/Trent
PG - Dame/Ant/CJ/Baze

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I would think if we had the following team healthy from day one we have more at least 5 more wins than we do now? I may be wrong?

Center - Nurk/Whiteside/Collins/Skal
Big Forward - Collins/Melo/Skal/Tolliver/Herz
Small Foward - Hood/Baze/Ant/Melo
SG - CJ/Ant/Baze/Hood/Trent
PG - Dame/Ant/CJ/Baze

We probably dont get Melo without the injuries (which Im ok with).

 

[Strenuus]

I would think if we had the following team healthy from day one we have at least 5 more wins than we do now? I may be wrong?

Center - Nurk/Whiteside/Collins/Skal
Big Forward - Collins/Melo/Skal/Tolliver/Herz
Small Foward - Hood/Baze/Ant/Melo
SG - CJ/Ant/Baze/Hood/Trent
PG - Dame/Ant/CJ/Baze

Even more of a reason to let off the gas this year. We Will be fine next year. Whats wrong with that?

 

[KingSpeed]

Wins against garbage teams mean nothing if we can't win against teams we would actually meet in the playoffs.

They mean everything. You have to win them to get a good playoff seed. Also regular season games against good teams don’t tell the story about how playoffs will go. Blazers were 1-7 vs Nuggets and Thunder last year and took out both in the playoffs.

 

[KingSpeed]

Btw, the Blazers were 24-35 in 2016-17 season and still made playoffs. It’s a long season.

 

[wizenheimer]

Btw, the Blazers were 24-35 in 2016-17 season and still made playoffs. It’s a long season.

do you mean the year they only won 41 games, getting the 8th seed, and got swept in the first round losing by an average of 18 points a game?

 

[TBpup]

do you mean the year they only won 41 games, getting the 8th seed, and got swept in the first round losing by an average of 18 points a game?

Not exactly something to look forward to...especially if it costs you a good Lottery pick.

 

[Strenuus]

They mean everything. You have to win them to get a good playoff seed. Also regular season games against good teams don’t tell the story about how playoffs will go. Blazers were 1-7 vs Nuggets and Thunder last year and took out both in the playoffs.

I dont care about previous years. They arent this year. THIS years team sucks against actual talented teams. I dont seek comfort in stats thst have no bearing on this year. Don't get fooled by them, they mean nothing with this current crop of guys.

We suck this year against good teams. Why make the playoffs to get stomped? Theres more pride in retreating then whopping their ass when we are healthy.

Its really not that hard of a concept.