FiveThirtyEight previews the NBA season

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BlazerCaravan

BlazerCaravan

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-rise-of-the-warriors/

Portland is projected 7th in the West, looks like.

paine-feature-nba-por1.png


I like how LMA is good at everything and bad at nothing... while T-Rob? Not so much. The "pile of poo" icon is a nice touch. Knowing how driven by analytics the Blazers staff is, I wonder if the data behind this reading of T-Rob is similar to the data that's telling Stotts not to bother with T-Rob in pre-season.
 
Last edited:
How can passing not be a strength for Blake?
 
BlazerWookee said:
Five Thirty Eight is Steve Blake? I thought he was in bed doing nothing for three days, how could he have done all this work on a season preview?
Click to expand...

He called his former teammate Steve Nash for help.
 
OK, I don't care what these guys think, but I LOVE their symbol for "Poor Player" - a steaming pile of shit. Can someone please make that into an emoticon we can use in this forum?

BNM
 
We do have crap head. :craphead:
 
I like this part:
Andrew Flowers said:
With Aldridge, Portland has an invaluable asset: a great player whose talents run counter to the prevailing trends in the league.
Click to expand...
 
So here's their ranking:

1. Golden State
2. Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Mavs
5. OKC
6. Grizzlies
7. Portland
8. Houston

Here's mine. I'm thinking of suing.
 
It's an interesting article, but their rankings are based on two ESPN advanced stats: RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement). And, they aren't using last years values for these stats, they are using projected values for 2015. I have no idea how those projections are calculated, but I do question the validity of using those individual stats to project player impact and especially team wins/losses.

For example, for the 2013-2014 season, Andre Iguodala had the 3rd highest RPM in the entire league and the 11th highest WAR. If you average those two rankings that means, according to their chosen methodology, Andre Iguodala was the 7th best player in the entire NBA last season. No wonder they picked the Warriors to win the West. When your 3rd (or 4th) best player is the 7th best player in the entire league, you're bound to win a lot of games. The problem is, Andre Iguodala is not the 7th best player in the league, and everyone knows it. So much for their methodology.

I don't have the time to do it, but based on their methodology, I bet if you went back and used their methodology and the actual RPM and WAR values from 2013-2014, they would probably conclude the Warriors won the West and we all know they didn't.

By their methodology, Channing Frye was the 13th best player in the NBA last season. I like Channing, but REALLY? And, Bricky Rubio is better than Damian Lillard (by a significant amount - guess the Rubes were right after all). And, congratulations to Nick Collison for having the 7th highest RPM in the entire league. Maybe there is still hope for Joel Freeland to reach superstar status using these sophisticated stats.

After looking at their methodology, I find it hard to take their conclusions seriously, but I did enjoy reading their observations and comments.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
It's an interesting article, but their rankings are based on two ESPN advanced stats: RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement). And, they aren't using last years values for these stats, they are using projected values for 2015. I have no idea how those projections are calculated, but I do question the validity of using those individual stats to project player impact and especially team wins/losses.

For example, for the 2013-2014 season, Andre Iguodala had the 3rd highest RPM in the entire league and the 11th highest WAR. If you average those two rankings that means, according to their chosen methodology, Andre Iguodala was the 7th best player in the entire NBA last season. No wonder they picked the Warriors to win the West. When your 3rd (or 4th) best player is the 7th best player in the entire league, you're bound to win a lot of games. The problem is, Andre Iguodala is not the 7th best player in the league, and everyone knows it. So much for their methodology.

I don't have the time to do it, but based on their methodology, I bet if you went back and used their methodology and the actual RPM and WAR values from 2013-2014, they would probably conclude the Warriors won the West and we all know they didn't.

By their methodology, Channing Frye was the 13th best player in the NBA last season. I like Channing, but REALLY? And, Bricky Rubio is better than Damian Lillard (by a significant amount - guess the Rubes were right after all). And, congratulations to Nick Collison for having the 7th highest RPM in the entire league. Maybe there is still hope for Joel Freeland to reach superstar status using these sophisticated stats.

After looking at their methodology, I find it hard to take their conclusions seriously, but I did enjoy reading their observations and comments.

BNM
Click to expand...

I hate all these advanced stats (besides shooting stuff because those stats don't lie)... Eye test is always the way to go.
 
Boob-No-More said:
It's an interesting article, but their rankings are based on two ESPN advanced stats: RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement). And, they aren't using last years values for these stats, they are using projected values for 2015. I have no idea how those projections are calculated, but I do question the validity of using those individual stats to project player impact and especially team wins/losses.

For example, for the 2013-2014 season, Andre Iguodala had the 3rd highest RPM in the entire league and the 11th highest WAR. If you average those two rankings that means, according to their chosen methodology, Andre Iguodala was the 7th best player in the entire NBA last season. No wonder they picked the Warriors to win the West. When your 3rd (or 4th) best player is the 7th best player in the entire league, you're bound to win a lot of games. The problem is, Andre Iguodala is not the 7th best player in the league, and everyone knows it. So much for their methodology.

I don't have the time to do it, but based on their methodology, I bet if you went back and used their methodology and the actual RPM and WAR values from 2013-2014, they would probably conclude the Warriors won the West and we all know they didn't.

By their methodology, Channing Frye was the 13th best player in the NBA last season. I like Channing, but REALLY? And, Bricky Rubio is better than Damian Lillard (by a significant amount - guess the Rubes were right after all). And, congratulations to Nick Collison for having the 7th highest RPM in the entire league. Maybe there is still hope for Joel Freeland to reach superstar status using these sophisticated stats.

After looking at their methodology, I find it hard to take their conclusions seriously, but I did enjoy reading their observations and comments.

BNM
Click to expand...

Those stats are supposed to be combined with others to mean anything. Examples: like PER vs usages etc.
 
The Lakers have 3 steaming piles of shit in their starting lineup.
 
They are going to be terribad, and it makes me happy
 
Rastapopoulos said:
So here's their ranking:

1. Golden State
2. Clippers
3. San Antonio
4. Mavs
5. OKC
6. Grizzlies
7. Portland
8. Houston
Click to expand...

Sorry, but this is shit. The Spurs should be no worse than 2nd. I'm not sure how the team that won 54 games with a shit-ass bench (Portland), is going to be 7 games and 2 spots lower, considering their bench is better this year.

Sure, the team probably over achieved a bit last year, but they were among the top 4 spot in the west for what, 75% of the season? Their bench IS better, even if Robinson seems to have not shown great improvement.

Houston, who barely finished above Portland and lost Lin, Asik and Parsons (for basically nothing)....is 2 games worse!?

538 should probably stick to political predictions.
 
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One thing to like about this is it gives us a first round matchup with the Clips - I'll take that!
 
If Defense is Aldridge strength but not Batum's or RoLo's they surely didn't watch them play.
 
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