Fivethirtyeight simulation

[dviss1]

You realize that Picks are "participation awards"... Participation awards are handed out to teams that didnt make the playoffs.

Logic. You did that to yourself. Nice try, though.

Ouch Stren! Stop hurtin' em' like that!

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I don't really want to pile on, but I'll answer part of your question, and it disagrees with many on these boards:

My total guess based on almost nothing is... Free Agency is Plan B. Plan A is that we trade for a good, young player under contract using our "assets" (Players, the pick we just got, but most importantly, cap space.

There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

We gain absolutely nothing getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs. HAVE YOU SEEN OUR RECORD LATELY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS? I said that when we won 13 out 16 games playing great basketball. I said that when we were 8-9 games below .500. A lottery pick to a small market team rebuilding is golden. You cant put a value on those lottery picks. Thats how important they are for teams in our situation. If we find a team willing to trade away a good starter, what can we offer them? If the Kings deal Cousins what can we offer them? ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) In order to get something good you have to have something another team wants. The majority thinks that players like Leonard, Vonleh, Aminu, Harkless and others are good trade chips because they are cheap but that is just wrong. Those players dont hold near the value that some of you think. We were able to get them cheap for a reason

So many fans are SO sure that Olshey can get a good free agent to sign this summer. You need to stop and ask yourself where will we be if he can’t? SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THAT. How do we inject talent into this franchise when you don’t have a lottery pick? Are we once again forced to bring in the type of players we did this summer? Players who have some potential but players other teams have already given up on. Players like Aminu, Harkless, Vonleh??

We just need talent pure and simple. I don’t care where it comes from. Draft, trade, free agency doesn't matter. Just Get It Olshey…..just get it!

I understand how difficult it is to get good free agents to come here but Olshey has to cash in this summer. These past HUGE BLOWOUT losses have shown us how bad our frontcourt really is.

 

[Nate]

If we make the playoffs with these players, under the given circumstances (no chemistry, blah, blah, etc.) Then I'm pretty sure we don't need to be hoping/relying on some rookie to come in here, and vault us into contender status...

Boston got their asses handed to them last year in the first round, and look at them now, tied for 3rd in the East.

And yes, I know, Boston has a bunch of picks. But the team they have on the floor this year, is the exact same one as last year. Doesn't look like they needed that extra lotto pick. The rookie, or the trade asset.

Who are they even building around? Isaiah Thomas is they're best player... CJ is better than Isaiah....

Dame might be MVP within the next few years. I doubt that this pick is going to determine whether or not he brings a championship to Portland... But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe if we make the playoffs this year, that will prevent our team from winning a championship. At least until Dame is gone of course (because Dames chance of winning a championship will be determined by this 2016 draft pick). And then we can quit wasting all our time in the playoffs, and start acquiring some draft picks!

 

[Nate]

Maybe the Bulls should've tanked the 85-86 season...

 

[rasheedfan2005]

There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

We gain absolutely nothing getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs. HAVE YOU SEEN OUR RECORD LATELY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS? I said that when we won 13 out 16 games playing great basketball. I said that when we were 8-9 games below .500. A lottery pick to a small market team rebuilding is golden. You cant put a value on those lottery picks. Thats how important they are for teams in our situation. If we find a team willing to trade away a good starter, what can we offer them? If the Kings deal Cousins what can we offer them? ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) In order to get something good you have to have something another team wants. The majority thinks that players like Leonard, Vonleh, Aminu, Harkless and others are good trade chips because they are cheap but that is just wrong. Those players dont hold near the value that some of you think. We were able to get them cheap for a reason

So many fans are SO sure that Olshey can get a good free agent to sign this summer. You need to stop and ask yourself where will we be if he can’t? SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THAT. How do we inject talent into this franchise when you don’t have a lottery pick? Are we once again forced to bring in the type of players we did this summer? Players who have some potential but players other teams have already given up on. Players like Aminu, Harkless, Vonleh??

We just need talent pure and simple. I don’t care where it comes from. Draft, trade, free agency doesn't matter. Just Get It Olshey…..just get it!

I understand how difficult it is to get good free agents to come here but Olshey has to cash in this summer. These past HUGE BLOWOUT losses have shown us how bad our frontcourt really is.

So we lose this years first round pick but that guarantees we get next years. So even if we over achieve for 2 years we still get this precious pick.

 

[Strenuus]

If we make the playoffs with these players, under the given circumstances (no chemistry, blah, blah, etc.) Then I'm pretty sure we don't need to be hoping/relying on some rookie to come in here, and vault us into contender status...

Boston got their asses handed to them last year in the first round, and look at them now, tied for 3rd in the East.

And yes, I know, Boston has a bunch of picks. But the team they have on the floor this year, is the exact same one as last year. Doesn't look like they needed that extra lotto pick. The rookie, or the trade asset.

Who are they even building around? Isaiah Thomas is they're best player... CJ is better than Isaiah....

Dame might be MVP within the next few years. I doubt that this pick is going to determine whether or not he brings a championship to Portland... But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe if we make the playoffs this year, that will prevent our team from winning a championship. At least until Dame is gone of course (because Dames chance of winning a championship will be determined by this 2016 draft pick). And then we can quit wasting all our time in the playoffs, and start acquiring some draft picks!

Ex.

Act.

Ly.

 

[Chris Craig]

There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

We gain absolutely nothing getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs. HAVE YOU SEEN OUR RECORD LATELY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS? I said that when we won 13 out 16 games playing great basketball. I said that when we were 8-9 games below .500. A lottery pick to a small market team rebuilding is golden. You cant put a value on those lottery picks. Thats how important they are for teams in our situation. If we find a team willing to trade away a good starter, what can we offer them? If the Kings deal Cousins what can we offer them? ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) In order to get something good you have to have something another team wants. The majority thinks that players like Leonard, Vonleh, Aminu, Harkless and others are good trade chips because they are cheap but that is just wrong. Those players dont hold near the value that some of you think. We were able to get them cheap for a reason

So many fans are SO sure that Olshey can get a good free agent to sign this summer. You need to stop and ask yourself where will we be if he can’t? SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THAT. How do we inject talent into this franchise when you don’t have a lottery pick? Are we once again forced to bring in the type of players we did this summer? Players who have some potential but players other teams have already given up on. Players like Aminu, Harkless, Vonleh??

We just need talent pure and simple. I don’t care where it comes from. Draft, trade, free agency doesn't matter. Just Get It Olshey…..just get it!

I understand how difficult it is to get good free agents to come here but Olshey has to cash in this summer. These past HUGE BLOWOUT losses have shown us how bad our frontcourt really is.

I don't think we will get our asses handed to us in the playoffs...we will play well...will we win a series? Get to the second round? Further? Probably not, and I'm not going to claim we are because I'm not delusional. Yet, we have the opportunity to succeed in the playoffs and that is exciting in itself.

We do gain something playing in the playoffs, even if we lose. We gain experience, and that's important for a young team that is playing some amazing basketball and surpassing expectations and surmounting the odds.

This summer in the off season Olshey will go after free agents, before that maybe try to dangle expiring contracts for a draft pick...or be the go between for a couple teams and collect yet another asset. We roll the dice. We get when the gettings good, and on the off chance that a big name free agent breaks the line and escapes back into the water...we keep throwing in the line...if we snag a guy that makes sense, add him...

If we get no free agents, no draft picks or assets on draft night, no trades...which I'm sure some of not all of these will happen...even if they don't we have a young team that plays amazing basketball and has a year of experience together...and we send them at it again and bide our time...

In Neil Olshey I trust

 

[PtldPlatypus]

There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

Just one last thing. This sentence you used as your preface really tells us all we need to know about you. The level of arrogance needed to believe that your opinion is so infallible that no amount of contrary evidence or perspective could conceivably overcome your staunch faith in your own viewpoint is, quite frankly, astonishing. As the old saying goes, minds are like parachutes; they only work when they're open.

 

[Orion Bailey]

There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

We gain absolutely nothing getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs. HAVE YOU SEEN OUR RECORD LATELY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS? I said that when we won 13 out 16 games playing great basketball. I said that when we were 8-9 games below .500. A lottery pick to a small market team rebuilding is golden. You cant put a value on those lottery picks. Thats how important they are for teams in our situation. If we find a team willing to trade away a good starter, what can we offer them? If the Kings deal Cousins what can we offer them? ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) In order to get something good you have to have something another team wants. The majority thinks that players like Leonard, Vonleh, Aminu, Harkless and others are good trade chips because they are cheap but that is just wrong. Those players dont hold near the value that some of you think. We were able to get them cheap for a reason

So many fans are SO sure that Olshey can get a good free agent to sign this summer. You need to stop and ask yourself where will we be if he can’t? SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THAT. How do we inject talent into this franchise when you don’t have a lottery pick? Are we once again forced to bring in the type of players we did this summer? Players who have some potential but players other teams have already given up on. Players like Aminu, Harkless, Vonleh??

We just need talent pure and simple. I don’t care where it comes from. Draft, trade, free agency doesn't matter. Just Get It Olshey…..just get it!

I understand how difficult it is to get good free agents to come here but Olshey has to cash in this summer. These past HUGE BLOWOUT losses have shown us how bad our frontcourt really is.

I question whether you actually have the teams long term best interests at stake. Seems you live of the rim of your nose with regards to the Blazers and you just don't seem to get it. A pick this year, a pick next year. Nothing changes. The pick can be used in the off season regardless of the yer, for a trade.
The very guys you mentioned that haven't been in the playoffs are the very ones who need the experience. SO they can make the next step next year like many of our returning players have done this year compared to last year. I know you said no one can change your mind, but you cant be this pigheaded as to not see that almost everyone now sees that making the playoffs is a far better choice of action for this young maturing team?

Your focused on the blowouts we have had to some elite teams in the league. Perspective mAn... Perspective... Long term thinking. Long term goals. At this point a late to mid lottery pick does us nothing this year compared ot next year. If anything having it next year is better. We can better ascertain our current youngs and who will develop and who wont and then go after that position in next years draft.

Come on man.. Get on the band wagon ...Its a MUCH funner ride than.. well being wrong.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Just one last thing. This sentence you used as your preface really tells us all we need to know about you. The level of arrogance needed to believe that your opinion is so infallible that no amount of contrary evidence or perspective could conceivably overcome your staunch faith in your own viewpoint is, quite frankly, astonishing. As the old saying goes, minds are like parachutes; they only work when they're open.

Incredible!!! 100 Likes to you sir!!!!

 

[Rhal]

I'd argue that in the summer our pick we can suddenly trade is worth more then the 14th pick in a weak draft because a team willing to part with a top player would rather have a top 5 protected picik that becomes unprotected down the line in a package for their star then the 14th pick in a weak draft especially if they talk themselves into thinking we are the next Phoenix Suns.