For all the "next year" guys in here....

[MIXUM]

I dont see why everyone is so set on us being great "next year." I mean lets really think about it with our roster assuming no trades our made...

Oden - How long will it take for him to get in game shape? Will he be the same as he was before his latest injury? Usually its takes a long time to get your legs back after missing 5 + months. And even if he does all of the above... CAN HE STAY HEALTHY? Or are we saying next year by Xmas?

Batum - I still see people say he might not be back this year. It seems very different on depending who you are talking too. Again, does he come back like he was as a rookie? A 2nd season slump? Anyway its gonna take time to get his legs back as well. And i doubt he starts unless webster plays god awful the last 50 games.

Outlaw - Wont be back unless he takes a big discount. Theres a chance that happens cause hes hurt. However I don't think he's back. Who fills his role?

Rudy - Is he injury prone? Seems a bit like hes always banged up. However he will be back. No pun intended. Instant backup to Roy.... assumig he doesnt get beat down again all summer playing euro ball.

Blake - I doubt hes back. Highly doubt it. But who knows. Im assuming Bayless takes this spot? Again I dont think bayless is a pg.

Pryz - I think he will be back..... in a suit till at least mid december at best. Therefore we we need a backup center. hmmm kinda like we do now. And again, will Joel ever be the same? How long will it take to get into form? If ever?


So listen, my point is..... theres lots of questions for next year. If healthy can this team play together with Greg? You saw how bad it was early this year. If not for a soft schedule... we would have been in more trouble. I see lots of you saying "next year" but with guys coming back from major injuries having not played for so long... can you really count on this team being that good? And again thats if Oden even stays healthy. Right now we have a chance to make a trade and improve a VERY GOOD record instead of regressing. Playoff experience is something Roy and LA need even if we get bounced in round 1. Its still MAJOR learning for them. I know you are all gonna say im being negative but "next year" is no gurantee. We will be right back where we were in November when no one could play together. How about worry about this 20-12 team and play now and make some moves for the future so we have insurance for greg and la. Outlaw and Blake arent gonna be back anyway. Lucky for us they are expiring anyway. Thats a break for us.... for once in a good way. Im just shocked so many have written this year off. And its cause they are like our GM.. scared to make a trade and lose the love fest with guys like Rudy if they are included in a deal. Thats the real truth.


Oh and Dwight Jaynes agrees.... http://www.dwightjaynes.com/

 

[Nikolokolus]

I dont see why everyone is so set on us being greaT "next year." I mean lets really think about it with our roster assuming no trades our made...

Oden - How long will it take for him to get in game shape? Will he be the same as he was before his latest injury? Usually its takes a long time to get your legs back after missing 5 + months. And even if he does all of the above... CAN HE STAY HEALTHY? Or are we saying next year by Xmas?

Batum - I still see people say he might not be back this year. It seems very different on depending who you are talking too. Again, does he come back like he was as a rookie? A 2nd season slump? Anyway its gonna take time to get his legs back as well. And i doubt he starts unless webster plays god awful the last 50 games.

Outlaw - Wont be back unless he takes a big discount. Theres a chance that happens cause hes hurt. However I don't think he's back. Who fills his role?

Rudy - Is he injury prone? Seems a bit like hes always banged up. However he will be back. No pun intended. Instant backup to Roy.... assumig he doesnt get beat down again all summer playing euro ball.

Blake - I doubt hes back. Highly doubt it. But who knows. Im assuming Bayless takes this spot? Again I dont think bayless is a pg.

Pryz - I think he will be back..... in a suit till at least mid december at best. Therefore we we need a backup center. hmmm kinda like we do now. And again, will Joel ever be the same? How long will it take to get into form? If ever?


So listen, my point is..... theres lots of questions for next year. If healthy can this team play together with Greg? You saw how bad it it was early this year. If not for a soft schedule... we would have been in more trouble. I see lots of you saying "next year" but with guys coming back from major injuries having not played for so long... can you really count on this team being that good? And again thats if Oden even stays healthy. Right now we have a chance to make a trade and improve a VERY GOOD record instead of regressing. Playoff experience is something Roy and LA need even if we get bounced in round 1. Its still MAJOR learning for them. I know you are all gonna say im being negative but "next year" is no gurantee. We will be right back where we were in November when no one could play together. How about worry about this 20-12 team and play now and make some moves for the future so we have insurance for greg and la. Outlaw and Blake arent gonna be back anyway. Lucky for us they are expiring anyway. Thats a break for us.... for once in a good way. Im just shocked so many have written this year off. And its cause they are like our GM.. scared to make a trade and lose the love fest with guys like Rudy if they are included in a deal. Thats the real truth.


Oh and Dwight Jaynes agrees.... http://www.dwightjaynes.com/

Bravo. This is actually the best argument or post you've ever made (that I've bothered to read anyway). I also agree that this team probably needs some kind of consolidation move and if Blake and Travis aren't in the long term plans then I hope KP has enough wherewithal to move them (if he can). But the problem arises that when you are operating from a position of weakness other GMs are going to attempt to "woodshed" you.

I will disagree on one point, I think the season is 'lost' but it's not because I'm scared to see KP trade away guys like Rudy, it's 'lost' because in the longterm (eg 50 games) there doesn't seem to be a lot of quality big men that teams would be willing to part with by just dangling Blake, Rudy, Travis, Bayless, Miller, etc. There's an axiom of trading amongst NBA GMs and that is, "you never trade big for small" and unless some team is desperate for a wing or second string point guard and they are overloaded with big men I just don't see a whole lot of opportunities out there on the trade front.

 

[MIXUM]

in todays nba with teams being cheap..... i think creative gms can find ways to help their teams. KP needs to step up..... the team has..... now its kp's turn to show them he wants to help....instead f using the tireed line " i like what we have"

gimmie a break... kp can get something if he wants to. your telling me these teams like the bobcats wouldnt jump at the chance.

 

[donkiez]

I agree but I'm cautios about making a move this year because it could just compond our problem next year. I was browsing through espn rumors and it appears big z and Camby are both available this year and they have expiring contracts. Not sure if we would be willing to part with some pieces to get these guys though, but either one could push us over the top this year.

 

[MIXUM]

cambys hurt

 

[RR7]

What sort of moves do you have in mind that would help us this season, and not hurt long term? You mention the Bobcats "jumping at the chance", Chandler's hurt again, and has injury concerns. Diop is overpaid and worthless. Nazr? I don't see what we can work out with Charlotte to help us grab a big man that is going to help anything. I know you say it isn't your job to come up with stuff, that it is KP's job, but I am curious of what reasonable options you see that might help us this year and beyond, and not hurt us long term? Who is out there, readily available for what we can give up, that will help us this season and beyond? It's easy to criticize without viable options. I can call for KP to go out and land Carmelo, and for him to figuire it out, I'm not the GM, but not have a viable way of how to get him. I'm curious as to some deals you think would be reasonable both for us AND the other team.

As for next season, I think this year IS helping a bit. Yes, there will be adjustments still, because Greg is out. I think the biggest benefit is the improving play of Bayless, and getting him accustomed to playing big minutes, and playing well alongside Roy and LMA. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens once Rudy gets back. I imagine we will see Webster lose time, as well as Blake, if Rudy is healthy upon his return.

 

[MIXUM]

dude im not taking to other gms... but i can tell you theres options. theres always teams who want to shed salary. I said this a month a go... KP has gotta take a damn stand on this season and decide. Either tank or compete. Quite honestly I think this last week really screwed him cause if he doesnt get help... it sends a bad message to this team and really just sends up a white flag which kills spirit for the year.

Like i said... good gms find a way. Its his next step to become a top gm or an average one. Just like this team is taking the next step .... so does our gm. Hes gotta step up now.

 

[RR7]

I understand you aren't talking to GMs. But he is. So you KNOW there are options, but you can't come up with those options, because you don't talk to other GMs. Well then how do you know they are there? And how do you know he hasn't explored all the options, and found that in order to trade for someone, we wouldhave to hurt ourselves for the future, for a mvoe that might not help a ton this season anyways. You have an opinion on everything else, but have no opinions on who you would want to see traded for? Nothing. You have no solutions, just complaints about the problems, which is the annoying part. Or, the easy part, because coming up with something that helps both sides is difficult. Who do you think is looking to get rid of talent for savings? What could we get off of those teams?

 

[magnifier661]

Well next year, we will have plenty of talent. I would rather KP and Nate see how tightening the rotation will improve this ball club. I would rather they pick a nice 8-9 core group that play solid together and not worry about having two "starting caliber" teams on the floor in all the games.

 

[MIXUM]

im just saying that we are 20-12 IN THIS YEAR and we should at least make every year effort for post season.

 

[RR7]

I agree. Who do you think we should go after, and what do you think would get it done?

 

[Further]

Mixum - my one big worry about our players for next year is Joel. That injury looks like the kind you never really recover from. Oden should return to full strength (hopefully he does not get hurt again) but I dont really worry about his recovery. Rudy I think will be fine, he just never took a day off basketball and is body got tweeked. From what I understand of the surgery, recovery should be easy. Batum is young and hopefully the docs did fine. Basically Joel is my one big worry.

And what do the Blazers need now. We need a Big. And what will we need next year if Joel does not come back - A Big. So what we do need now and in the future is a Big. The problem is that we dont have many healthy pieces to trade. But hopefully we can find someone. I would be looking to trade anyone but Roy, LMA, Oden, Bayless and Batum. All the rest including Miller, Rudy, Webster... should be available for a decent Center.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Well next year, we will have plenty of talent. I would rather KP and Nate see how tightening the rotation will improve this ball club. I would rather they pick a nice 8-9 core group that play solid together and not worry about having two "starting caliber" teams on the floor in all the games.

Amen.

The danger of looking at our current situation is proclaiming, "See!? We have all this depth that will help us stay afloat. Thank God for all those players that were languishing on the bench." ... as if planning for this rash of injuries by carrying too many rotation players is a plan for success. Your best players win you games, reserves and secondary players fill in the gaps, roster spots 9-15 should be held for replacement level players that can sub in a pinch for 10-15 minutes a night if somebody above them gets hurt. If you are banking on a so-called second unit to win you games, then it means your starters probably aren't that good to begin with and they probably need a talent upgrade anyway.

 

[Further]

Well I would like two starting caliber centers. With Oden being injury prone and bigs picking up lots of fouls in general, I think if there is any position where it makes sense to have two starting caliber players its at Center. IF Joel is not to return at full strength next year, we need to put allour chips on the table to get us a good C.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Well I would like two starting caliber centers. With Oden being injury prone and bigs picking up lots of fouls in general, I think if there is any position where it makes sense to have two starting caliber players its at Center. IF Joel is not to return at full strength next year, we need to put allour chips on the table to get us a good C.

Yeah that would be nice, the question becomes, "who?"

I don't see a whole lot of teams eager to part with legitimate starting quality bigs. the best hope may be that Golden State really is serious about being willing to part ways with Anthony Randolph, or maybe Gortat could be prised away from Orlando (though I'll bet they are banking on him being there for the playoffs).

KP will probably end up just adding a guy like Rod Benson from the D-league with our hardship exemption and call it done.

Next year, maybe that third big-guy who can play a little forward and center is Joel Freeland?

 

[C_note]

Rudy - Is he injury prone? Seems a bit like hes always banged up. However he will be back. No pun intended. Instant backup to Roy.... assumig he doesnt get beat down again all summer playing euro ball.

Did you not see the fall he took from Ariza? How the fuck do you call something like that
"injury prone" ?

 

[ebott]

Outlaw - Wont be back unless he takes a big discount. Theres a chance that happens cause hes hurt. However I don't think he's back. Who fills his role?

I disagree with this. I think Outlaw is back for his current contract. With him being out we've seen how valuable he is to us. After all, you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone. Being injured all year he's not gonna get a big money offer from anybody else.

Oh and Dwight Jaynes agrees.... http://www.dwightjaynes.com/

What Jaynes mostly seems to be harping on is that for this team to ever be a championship contender we're going to need Greg Oden. Also that Greg Oden is going to need to be an effective post scorer.

So it's a very simple choice. You believe in Greg Oden and we're a future championship contender. Or you don't believe in Greg Oden and we're not.

 

[MIXUM]

i believe in a healthy greg oden....


healthy is a big problem

 

[Nikolokolus]

I disagree with this. I think Outlaw is back for his current contract. With him being out we've seen how valuable he is to us. After all, you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone. Being injured all year he's not gonna get a big money offer from anybody else.

As an off-the-bench scorer who can create his own shot? For my money I'd rather have Bayless.

Furthermore, Travis is likely to get a better contract offer than his current one from some other team ... I doubt the Blazers bend over backwards to keep him.

 

[Further]

Yeah that would be nice, the question becomes, "who?"

I don't see a whole lot of teams eager to part with legitimate starting quality bigs. the best hope may be that Golden State really is serious about being willing to part ways with Anthony Randolph, or maybe Gortat could be prised away from Orlando (though I'll bet they are banking on him being there for the playoffs).

KP will probably end up just adding a guy like Rod Benson from the D-league with our hardship exemption and call it done.

Next year, maybe that third big-guy who can play a little forward and center is Joel Freeland?

I totally forgot about Freeland. He did not want to come over yet because he wanted playing time. I have no idea if it would be possible to convince him to come over mid-season, but he would be near guaranteed quality minutes in the NBA. I would love to see him come over.

 

[Further]

As an off-the-bench scorer who can create his own shot? For my money I'd rather have Bayless.

Furthermore, Travis is likely to get a better contract offer than his current one from some other team ... I doubt the Blazers bend over backwards to keep him.

I was thinking that the Blazers don't want to trade Outlaw because he is Roy's best friend on the team. However, If some other team offers a better contract to Outlaw, then they can part ways without the Blazers looking like bad guys to Roy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I totally forgot about Freeland. He did not want to come over yet because he wanted playing time. I have no idea if it would be possible to convince him to come over mid-season, but he would be near guaranteed quality minutes in the NBA. I would love to see him come over.

The biggest thing with Joel is that if he waits until this July he's no longer bound by the rookie scale and can negotiate for up to the full MLE ... my guess is that they'd probably offer him something in the Martell range (4.5-5 million per year). If he came over this year, he'd be making peanuts for the next three years as the 30th overall pick (~1-2 million per year).

 

[andalusian]

I was thinking that the Blazers don't want to trade Outlaw because he is Roy's best friend on the team. However, If some other team offers a better contract to Outlaw, then they can part ways without the Blazers looking like bad guys to Roy.

I get the same feeling. I would not be surprised to see Outlaw back on the roster with the same kind of deal Webster got. Heck, if they manage to do that - that would be great. Outlaw gives you get production for this kind of salary.

 

[ebott]

As an off-the-bench scorer who can create his own shot? For my money I'd rather have Bayless.

Some would also put Rudy on that list. But I think not having Outlaw around has shown us that it's always good to have more guys that can create their own shot. You probably don't want a lineup with Bayless, Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there all at once very often, but it's nice to have all those guys at your disposal.

Furthermore, Travis is likely to get a better contract offer than his current one from some other team ... I doubt the Blazers bend over backwards to keep him.

I highly doubt anyone offers him more than the MLE. He's out for the season with a broken foot. Who offers a guy with a broken foot a big contract?

 

[ebott]

i believe in a healthy greg oden....


healthy is a big problem

How much of a problem is it? Sam Bowie played more in his first three seasons than Greg has.

The way I look at it you either believe in Greg Oden or you trade him.

But maybe that's being a little narrow minded. Maybe you fit in with the John Canzano frame of mind that you keep Greg knowing that if he's healthy and productive for one year that could mean you win a championship.

Looking back at the Sam Bowie situation, we were close to a championship in 91 and 92. Bowie was healthy and productive those years. Maybe if we would have kept him around we would have won one.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Looking back at the Sam Bowie situation, we were close to a championship in 91 and 92. Bowie was healthy and productive those years. Maybe if we would have kept him around we would have won one.

Not entirely fair, since Duck was healthy and productive in both years... If we'd had Sabas though...

I get your point, though. I'm willing to stick with Greg Oden expecting that he may only have 3 or 4 "healthy" seasons in the NBA. And that's because when he's healthy, he can be completely dominant. It's a risk I'm willing to take, personally.

 

[Further]

Some would also put Rudy on that list. But I think not having Outlaw around has shown us that it's always good to have more guys that can create their own shot. You probably don't want a lineup with Bayless, Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there all at once very often, but it's nice to have all those guys at your disposal.



I highly doubt anyone offers him more than the MLE. He's out for the season with a broken foot. Who offers a guy with a broken foot a big contract?

You are likely correct, but the one thing that Outlaw does have in his favor is the season that his contract is up. A ton of teams are all clearing space to get the Bron, Wade and Boshes that are out there. But, most likely, Bron and Wade stay put. Bosh might not even get signed by one of these money teams, he could end up leaving in a sign and trade. That leaves a lot of teams with a lot of money to spend. And, as the Blazers got Miller last season because we had cash to spend, a lot of teams this off-season will be in the same boat. Outlaw might get over MLE just because a small bidding war happens over the scraps that are left from bron chase.

 

[RR7]

I think that will ultimately hurt Outlaw, having other teams looking at the big names, and saving their money, if those guys delay, the smaller tier guys will either take what they can get, or be stuck waiting and waiting and waiting, and risk missing out. If someone offered him 5 years 20 million, I think he'd take it as opposed to waiting for ALL of the pieces to settle, just to hope for an additional million or two a year, which might not come.

 

[KingSpeed]

As an off-the-bench scorer who can create his own shot? For my money I'd rather have Bayless.

Furthermore, Travis is likely to get a better contract offer than his current one from some other team ... I doubt the Blazers bend over backwards to keep him.

Travis isn't just about offense off the bench. He brings us versatility that allows us to move LMA to the center position for stretches.

 

[KingSpeed]

How much of a problem is it? Sam Bowie played more in his first three seasons than Greg has.

The way I look at it you either believe in Greg Oden or you trade him.

But maybe that's being a little narrow minded. Maybe you fit in with the John Canzano frame of mind that you keep Greg knowing that if he's healthy and productive for one year that could mean you win a championship.

Looking back at the Sam Bowie situation, we were close to a championship in 91 and 92. Bowie was healthy and productive those years. Maybe if we would have kept him around we would have won one.

Didn't we trade Bowie for Buck Williams? Buck was the difference between winning and losing in those years.