Ford on Lillard

[Reep]

Ford: . . . To all of those who accused me of overrating Damian Lillard before the draft, it looks like I underrated him. To all of those who accused me of underrating Austin Rivers before the draft, it looks like I overrated him.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-121101/nba-early-season-highlights-lowlights

I loved Lillard before the draft, and he is still showing me more than I expected.

 

[Boise Blazer]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-121101/nba-early-season-highlights-lowlights

I loved Lillard before the draft, and he is still showing me more than I expected.

He has been so good at times that it almost scares me. Maybe too many bad breaks with my favorite players in the past but I feel like someone is messing with me and ready to pull the rug out from under this dream. At the very least its not like we havent earned it as Blazers fans to hit the jackpot for once.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I also had no idea that he was that quick. He may have got his shot blocked by Howard but he absolutely BLEW by Nash last night on that one play. Sometimes Im speechless at how fast he is.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Lillard looked really good last night, maybe too good. Nash, Duhon and Blake aren't exactly defensive stoppers. Let's see how he does against the likes of OKC, Houston, etc. before the book is written.

 

[Natebishop3]

Lillard looked really good last night, maybe too good. Nash, Duhon and Blake aren't exactly defensive stoppers. Let's see how he does against the likes of OKC, Houston, etc. before the book is written.

Not that the defense was great last night, but you think Jeremy Lin is a stopper?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Not that the defense was great last night, but you think Jeremy Lin is a stopper?

No, not at all, but Houston is a lot younger and faster than the Lakers.

In any case I'm not saying I think Lillard is a tease, I'm just curious how responds to teams once there's a little bit of film on him and once he goes up against a more cohesive defensive effort than we saw from the Lakers.

FWIW, I think he'll have some inevitable ups and downs, but will eventually settle into a being a pretty consistent 18/8 kind of guy (career numbers, not necessarily rookie numbers).

 

[Natebishop3]

No, not at all, but Houston is a lot younger and faster than the Lakers.

In any case I'm not saying I think Lillard is a tease, I'm just curious how responds to teams once there's a little bit of film on him and once he goes up against a more cohesive defensive effort than we saw from the Lakers.

FWIW, I think he'll have some inevitable ups and downs, but will eventually settle into a being a pretty consistent 18/8 kind of guy (career numbers, not necessarily rookie numbers).

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't think 18 and 8 is out of reach for him this season. He didn't even play that well last night on offense and he put up 23 and 11. I mean, it seemed like he didn't play nearly as well as we've seen him play and he put up those numbers? I think that says something.

Westbrook will be a challenge for him. No doubt. I think Lillard likes challenges though. He usually rises to the occasion. I remember once last night where Nash scored on him and he got this look on his face like, "oh hell no!"

 

[Boise Blazer]

Not that the defense was great last night, but you think Jeremy Lin is a stopper?

It will be interesting to see how he plays against another fast PG in Westbrook. That match up should tell us a lot. Not that I consider RW a good defedner but he is quick.

 

[EGame]

With the way this kid can score and shoot, I'd be a little disappointed if his career average is 18 points. I think he can get at least 20 a game. I'd be thrilled with 8 assists as a career average, however. But with how talented this kid is and the fact that he CAN shoot, I think 18 would be a bit underwhelming IMO. Maybe I just have unrealistic expectations, though, so who knows.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Here's the list of career 18/8 players for reference ...

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

adjust expectations accordingly.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

With the way this kid can score and shoot, I'd be a little disappointed if his career average is 18 points. I think he can get at least 20 a game. I'd be thrilled with 8 assists as a career average, however. But with how talented this kid is and the fact that he CAN shoot, I think 18 would be a bit underwhelming IMO. Maybe I just have unrealistic expectations, though, so who knows.

I think he'll get what his team needs him to get. Duncan could have put up Kobe numbers all these years, but he'd rather win.

 

[Boise Blazer]

Here's the list of career 18/8 players for reference ...

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

adjust expectations accordingly.

Looking at that chart makes me wonder: Whats the opinion on how close of a comparison Lillard is to Isiah Thomas?

 

[Natebishop3]

Here's the list of career 18/8 players for reference ...

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

adjust expectations accordingly.

Career, sure, but I think it's reasonable that he could average 18 and 8 for his rookie season. It's the later in their careers that it becomes more difficult. Take Brandon Roy for example. If he continues to play, his averages will only dip further and further.

 

[BBert]

Rookie point guard Damian Lillard scored 23 points and dished out 11 assists in his NBA debut. He is only the third player in NBA history (Oscar Robertson in 1960 and Isiah Thomas in 1981) to score at least 20 points and dish out at least 10 assists in his first NBA game.

Adjust expectations accordingly.

 

[PapaG]

Career, sure, but I think it's reasonable that he could average 18 and 8 for his rookie season. It's the later in their careers that it becomes more difficult. Take Brandon Roy for example. If he continues to play, his averages will only dip further and further.

List of NBA players who averaged 16/7 for the first 10 seasons of their career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...at=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=per

 

[handiman]

Some of the deep shots Lillard took last night were questionable, but they were rhythm shots that you expect of natural scorers. And that's exactly what he is. Yeah, he's pretty damn good at distributing the ball, but he's clearly got a scorer's mentality. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 20 ppg this year.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I have a feeling as he develops as a scorer his assist number wont be that high. I think he has the ability but I dont think that will be what this team need in the years to come. I would imagine that he will always be in the 5-7 ast/gm range. Again I hope Im wrong and Im also beginning to almost urealistically expect more and more of him every time i see him.

 

[Natebishop3]

Some of the deep shots Lillard took last night were questionable, but they were rhythm shots that you expect of natural scorers. And that's exactly what he is. Yeah, he's pretty damn good at distributing the ball, but he's clearly got a scorer's mentality. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 20 ppg this year.

It's possible, but I think the scoring will see ups and downs. He shouldn't have trouble getting assists though, with Aldridge, Batum and Wes.

 

[tlongII]

I think we'll see some 40 point games from the kid. When he gets hot from the perimeter he'll be unstoppable.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think we'll see some 40 point games from the kid. When he gets hot from the perimeter he'll be unstoppable.

I don't know... he's too unselfish for that. We've got too many other scorers and I think he likes to dish the ball. 20 points per game is totally doable for this kid, but I think he also wants the 10 assists.

 

[e_blazer]

Here's the list of career 18/8 players for reference ...

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

adjust expectations accordingly.

Obviously, that's a cream the cream of the crop list. One thing that should be said, however, is that Lillard is a purer shooter, especially from deep, than either Magic or Isiah.

But I do think that a sample size of more than a game or two would be helpful before we crown him as a top-4 PG in NBA history.

 

[Natebishop3]

Obviously, that's a cream the cream of the crop list. One thing that should be said, however, is that Lillard is a purer shooter, especially from deep, than either Magic or Isiah.

But I do think that a sample size of more than a game or two would be helpful before we crown him as a top-4 PG in NBA history.

Maybe I'm remembering Isiah differently than you are, but he was an insane scorer. He could pretty much score at will.

Edit - I guess you are right. He was a terrible three point shooter. Career 29% shooter from deep.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

In any case I'm not saying I think Lillard is a tease, I'm just curious how responds to teams once there's a little bit of film on him and once he goes up against a more cohesive defensive effort than we saw from the Lakers.

This is my thinking. The league is going to adjust and he will face tougher competition. I like what I see so far though.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think too much is being made about Lillard having to adjust to defenses... he is used to teams game planning entirely around him. The difference is, he realizes when the defense is keying on him so he tries to get his teammates involved. That's why you will often see him start out slow because he's working on finding his teammates, like Aldridge or Batum or Wes. Later on in the game he'll call his own number and put up some points.

 

[BBert]

I see he was 7-17 from the field. That surprises me, since every shot he took I expected to go in.

 

[Spud147]

This is my thinking. The league is going to adjust and he will face tougher competition. I like what I see so far though.

I think his main problem is going to be physical and mental fatigue this season. He definitely looked worn out by the end of the game last night. He's going to have to figure out how to pace himself.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I think too much is being made about Lillard having to adjust to defenses... he is used to teams game planning entirely around him. The difference is, he realizes when the defense is keying on him so he tries to get his teammates involved. That's why you will often see him start out slow because he's working on finding his teammates, like Aldridge or Batum or Wes. Later on in the game he'll call his own number and put up some points.

Do you feel the same after last nights game? I think DL will be fine, but it is different when Chico St. runs a scheme and a Pro team.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Do you feel the same after last nights game? I think DL will be fine, but it is different when Chico St. runs a scheme and a Pro team.

I think it was pretty obvious that Dallas schemed specifically for Lillard last night and I think it affected his decision making and his rhythm. Despite that it wasn't like he was shooting hotly contested threes, they just were't falling for him and that kind of snowballed.

Hopefully he, along with Stotts, can come up with some effective counters for those double teams on the high pick and roll.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Do you feel the same after last nights game? I think DL will be fine, but it is different when Chico St. runs a scheme and a Pro team.

It's on Lillard's teammates to adjust too, so he doesn't get stranded because some power forward decided to just roll after the pick. So, institutionally, Stotts and team will help Lillard perform at his best by adjusting to that sort of swarming defense he's sure to get now. Maybe run Lillard off the ball a bit too.

 

[Spud147]

I think it was pretty obvious that Dallas schemed specifically for Lillard last night and I think it affected his decision making and his rhythm. Despite that it wasn't like he was shooting hotly contested threes, they just were't falling for him and that kind of snowballed.

Hopefully he, along with Stotts, can come up with some effective counters for those double teams on the high pick and roll.

That's a pretty big compliment when a teams defense is focused on a rookie in his 4th game when you've got an All Star on the floor with him. He talked about watching a lot of tape and learning from it in college. Adjustments are nothing new to him and I think the earlier he starts experiencing these defensive pressures the earlier he'll learn to beat them. I'm not worried about a slump or problem with his confidence. I say take the heat now and learn faster!