Fox news poll has Obama ahead of Romney

[Further]

Fox news poll

If the election were held today who would you vote for:
Obama 48%
Romney 44%



Obama favorable/unfavorable numbers
53/43

Romney favorable/unfavorable numbers
49/45



I cherry picked a couple of questions that I see as most important, but there are a bunch of interesting questions on every issue from jobs to social issues, so check it out if interested.


I just thought this was telling since it comes from a conservative news site. Thoughts?

 

[MickZagger]

Its how I expect it to remain as well.

 

[TehChad]

The only thing Romney is winning is a plane ticket home.

 

[Denny Crane]

Thoughts? For most of the polling season, Fox has had Obama up by quite a bit. I don't think that was a biased thing for them to do and report. However, they changed to poll only likely voters and Romney is ahead. He's ahead in other polls of likely voters, too.

 

[Further]

Thoughts? For most of the polling season, Fox has had Obama up by quite a bit. I don't think that was a biased thing for them to do and report. However, they changed to poll only likely voters and Romney is ahead. He's ahead in other polls of likely voters, too.

In the poll I posted, likley voters have Obama at 48 to Romney 43. Romney is behind, and by quite a lot.

Question 3

By the way, favorability numbers were also likely voters (question 4)? LV stands for likely voters

 

[Denny Crane]

yeah, he was ahead in the first poll of likely voters, though.

I think this one reflects the convention bounce, which appears to be dissipating now.

 

[Further]

yeah, he was ahead in the first poll of likely voters, though.

I think this one reflects the convention bounce, which appears to be dissipating now.

Could be, I only hang out and talk politics with a select group of friends and family, and none of them are in the undecided group, so gauging those who could still swing is hard for me. I do wonder how today's politics will affect the race. It seems to me, from watching CNN, that Romney may have screwed up today by politicizing the recent attacks hours after they occurred.

Either way, I think the race is close enough that the debates could have a huge effect on the outcome of the election.

 

[maxiep]

National polls are almost worthless at this point. I'm interested in swing state* polls (individually). I wish someone would run polls like that based on several different models (2004, 2008, 2012) and post the differences so we could better arrive at our own conclusions.

*The states I would call "swing" are: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

 

[Further]

I just found this state by state electoral polling map

I don't know about reliability of the site or how they weigh the polls, but they claim to base the map on "analysis will rely on hundreds of national and statewide public opinion surveys" including just about every poll i have heard of.
Here is a list of their sources.

 

[maxiep]

I just found this state by state electoral polling map

I don't know about reliability of the site or how they weigh the polls, but they claim to base the map on "analysis will rely on hundreds of national and statewide public opinion surveys" including just about every poll i have heard of.
Here is a list of their sources.

Thanks for that site. I hadn't yet seen it. realclearpolitics.com is where I go for my polling data. Repped.

 

[Denny Crane]

Could be, I only hang out and talk politics with a select group of friends and family, and none of them are in the undecided group, so gauging those who could still swing is hard for me. I do wonder how today's politics will affect the race. It seems to me, from watching CNN, that Romney may have screwed up today by politicizing the recent attacks hours after they occurred.

Either way, I think the race is close enough that the debates could have a huge effect on the outcome of the election.

I think you're right about Romney. I even made a post with a similar observation. He'd have been better off linking the whole Libya thing with Solyndra, effectively saying Obama tried to pick winners and losers and makes bad investments. And that the last time a situation like this occurred was under Jimmy Carter's watch. There's a nuance to saying those things that people will get and the media can't get into fact check mode with the intent to make him look bad.

I do think it's fair to criticize the president for his foreign policy.

In response to your state by state electoral map... I'd be very careful about looking at the average of a number of polls. Do you think that even makes sense to average polls like they do? Consider that Fox poll you posted has very different results based upon registered and likely voters. So averaging polls means you're averaging polls that aren't the same methodology.

I prefer to look at the analysis of Charlie Cook, who's a stat geek with no apparent agenda. I don't think he averages the polls or solely relies on them. He's been doing this for a few decades now.

http://cookpolitical.com/

(he's got it at 201 Obama, 191 Romney, 84 toss up)

 

[jlprk]

Here is a list of their sources.

It doesn't say that they average them mathematically. I'd guess they have some subjective, weighted merging method.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I'm glad to see so many people excited of 4 more years of this.

 

[maxiep]

Rasmussen's latest poll. Again, since individual pollsters stay with roughly the same methodology, the insight is in tracking the trends, not the actual numbers. As of today, it's Gov. Romney with 47% and President Obama with 46%, 3% voting for another candidate and 5% undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

 

[Denny Crane]

It doesn't say that they average them mathematically. I'd guess they have some subjective, weighted merging method.

Nope, it's a simple average of the poll results.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

They have Obama at 48.4

Rasmussen 46 + Fox News 48 + Reuters 48 + Gallup 50 + ABC 49 + CNN 52 + IBD 46 = 339
/ 7 polls = 48.428