Forum Game Game #3 Predictions, Blazers vs Wizards, 10/22/2018

[Hoopguru]

I know, it's hard when the rules are only posted in the preseason one. From what I've gathered you are supposed to pick the player that will contribute the most value according to this formula:
Player contribution prediction:

Predict which player will have the greatest contribution points for the game. You post the name of the player and their contribution points. The contribution points are calculated as follows:

Points & Rebounds (face value)
Assists & Blocks (value * 1.5)
Steals (value * 2)
Turnovers (value * -2)

Those that picked the right player will be placed above anyone who didn't and then those that did guess the correct player will be ranked by who was closest to the actual value.

thanks man...

 

[kjironman1]

Blazers 122
Wiz 118

Lillard 35

Starters 75
Bench 47

 

[kjironman1]

I wasn't referring to you. We have a CJ 28 and 33. I'm pretty confident those people just mean points because I doubt we could win the game if CJ is our top contributor with only 28. It would have to be a crazy balanced game scoring and rebounding wise without many assists.


@TorturedBlazerFan I'm sure you know these already, ha ha, but this is for you:
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Kinda depends on what the bench scores . The Blazers could very well have CJ being the top scorer at 33 and win if the bench brings 40 to 50 points. It’s that extra half point per assist that gets weird?

 

[stampedehero]

Blazers 121 Wizardos 115
Dame for 33
Starters 70 Bench 51

 

[hoopsjock]

Kinda depends on what the bench scores . The Blazers could very well have CJ being the top scorer at 33 and win if the bench brings 40 to 50 points.

Once again, are you saying he will score 33 points or be worth 33 contribution points? They are completely different things.

 

[kjironman1]

Once again, are you saying he will score 33 points or be worth 33 contribution points? They are completely different things.

It’s that extra half for a assist that gets weird? I went with Lillard at 35 overall.

 

[kjironman1]

Once again, are you saying he will score 33 points or be worth 33 contribution points? They are completely different things.

Seems to me like you are thinking too much. But I just throw a number out there and see what happens?

 

[hoopsjock]

It’s that extra half for a assist that gets weird? I went with Lillard at 35 overall.

Seems to me like you are thinking too much. But I just throw a number out there and see what happens?

I'm not overthinking it, but if Dame only has 35 contribution points that is either a below average game for him or he likely wouldn't be the highest contributor that game if that makes sense. Sure the team seems more balanced this year so it could in theory be fine.

Going off of last year's stats for Dame he averaged 38.5 contribution points per game. It would be interesting to see how many games he scored less than that was he still the top contributor? It would also be interesting to see if there was any correlation between Dame's contribution number and wins and losses. If Dame has a lower than average contribution score my guess is it's because it was a blowout either way and he didn't play as much, CJ or Nurk had a monster game, or the scoring was very spread out.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I'm not overthinking it, but if Dame only has 35 contribution points that is either a below average game for him or he likely wouldn't be the highest contributor that game if that makes sense. Sure the team seems more balanced this year so it could in theory be fine.

Going off of last year's stats for Dame he averaged 38.5 contribution points per game. It would be interesting to see how many games he scored less than that was he still the top contributor? It would also be interesting to see if there was any correlation between Dame's contribution number and wins and losses. If Dame has a lower than average contribution score my guess is it's because it was a blowout either way and he didn't play as much, CJ or Nurk had a monster game, or the scoring was very spread out.

I have all that data. Don't feel like doing the analysis.

At least right now..

 

[PHXBlazer1]

Blazers 117
Bullets 112

 

[kjironman1]

I'm not overthinking it, but if Dame only has 35 contribution points that is either a below average game for him or he likely wouldn't be the highest contributor that game if that makes sense. Sure the team seems more balanced this year so it could in theory be fine.

Going off of last year's stats for Dame he averaged 38.5 contribution points per game. It would be interesting to see how many games he scored less than that was he still the top contributor? It would also be interesting to see if there was any correlation between Dame's contribution number and wins and losses. If Dame has a lower than average contribution score my guess is it's because it was a blowout either way and he didn't play as much, CJ or Nurk had a monster game, or the scoring was very spread out.

My thinking is this is a different team than last year. But yes I will take a more balanced effort from the team.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

check out Blazers IG stories. the blazers going into the Moda are all in haloween costumes

 

[hoopsjock]

My thinking is this is a different team than last year. But yes I will take a more balanced effort from the team.

Well so far Dame is averaging 41.5 contribution points in 3.6 minutes less per game! So it's possible that Dame could be more efficient on a more balanced team making his contribution value stay the same or go higher.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Going off of last year's stats for Dame he averaged 38.5 contribution points per game. It would be interesting to see how many games he scored less than that was he still the top contributor?

Last year Dame was the top average contributor with his average ranking for contribution points being 1.5. He had 37 of 73 games when his contribution was less than his overall average (since average should be about the middle value, this feels right).

Of the games he contributed less than his season average his was still the top contributor 15 of those games.

It would also be interesting to see if there was any correlation between Dame's contribution number and wins and losses.

Dame Averaged 39.7 contribution points last year in Blazer wins and 35.9 contribution points in Blazer losses.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

We have a CJ 28 and 33. I'm pretty confident those people just mean points because I doubt we could win the game if CJ is our top contributor with only 28.

Nope. I meant CJ would be our high scorer with 28. And I predicted a win.

CJ = 28
Dame and Nurk will both score mid-20’s and Sauce will again be big off the bench with 19.

 

[hoopsjock]

Last year Dame was the top average contributor with his average ranking for contribution points being 1.5. He had 37 of 73 games when his contribution was less than his overall average (since average should be about the middle value, this feels right).

Of the games he contributed less than his season average his was still the top contributor 15 of those games.




Dame Averaged 39.7 contribution points last year in Blazer wins and 35.9 contribution points in Blazer losses.

Wow @GrandpaBlaze, you didn't have to do that but that is fan-freaking-tastic work from you! Thanks!

 

[hoopsjock]

We have a CJ 28 and 33. I'm pretty confident those people just mean points because I doubt we could win the game if CJ is our top contributor with only 28.

Nope. I meant CJ would be our high scorer with 28. And I predicted a win.

CJ = 28
Dame and Nurk will both score mid-20’s and Sauce will again be big off the bench with 19.

But we are supposed to pick how many contribution points they have not just points scored.

 

[kjironman1]

Well so far Dame is averaging 41.5 contribution points in 3.6 minutes less per game! So it's possible that Dame could be more efficient on a more balanced team making his contribution value stay the same or go higher.

There isn’t a right or wrong hoops. It’s a prediction game. I went with 35 for Lillard.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

There isn’t a right or wrong hoops. It’s a prediction game. I went with 35 for Lillard.

I think he realizes that lillard at 35 is a possibility. I think he was making a point that Dames been really efficient this year and playing less minutes (both really good signs in my opinion!)

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

But we are supposed to pick how many contribution points they have not just points scored.

I guess we need Gramps to weigh in. I understood:

Predict game score;
Predict Blazer high scorer;
Predict Blazer starters and Blazer bench scoring

No?

 

[hoopsjock]

Wow @GrandpaBlaze, you didn't have to do that but that is fan-freaking-tastic work from you! Thanks!

I'm guessing that means that Dame was the top contributor in about 50 of the 73 games played then? Based on your research for last year that means if you guessed 38 or less for Dame you were only right 15 out of 37 times (roughly 40%). Just by having Dame as your guess though you would be right nearly 70% of the time.

 

[hoopsjock]

I guess we need Gramps to weigh in. I understood:

Predict game score;
Predict Blazer high scorer;
Predict Blazer starters and Blazer bench scoring

No?

Nope it's Blazer high contributor using this formula:
Player contribution prediction:

Predict which player will have the greatest contribution points for the game. You post the name of the player and their contribution points. The contribution points are calculated as follows:

Points & Rebounds (face value)
Assists & Blocks (value * 1.5)
Steals (value * 2)
Turnovers (value * -2)

That's @GrandpaBlaze's exact words.

 

[ripcityboy]

Ahhhhh. So the next team on Dwight Howard's wonderful tour of the league continues. Well Nurk And Collins should be more than enough for him.

 

[hoopsjock]

There isn’t a right or wrong hoops. It’s a prediction game. I went with 35 for Lillard.

I never said anything about you being right or wrong. I was curious how likely it would be to win (which you predicted) while Dame had a lower than average output (which you also predicted). You can guess whatever you want.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I guess we need Gramps to weigh in. I understood:

Predict game score;
Predict Blazer high scorer;
Predict Blazer starters and Blazer bench scoring

No?

1. Yes.
2. No - Predict high contribution point person (points + rebounds + (assists * 1.5) + (blocks * 1.5) + (steals * 2) - (turnovers * 2)
3. Yes.

Imagine the following lines:
CJ - 29 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers
Dame - 24 points, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, 2 turnovers

CJ Contribution = 32.5 (29 + 3 + 4.5 + 2 - 6)
Dame Contribution = 36 (24 + 2 + 12 + 2 - 4)

CJ is the high scorer but Dame is the overall contribution winner. You would have wanted to pick Dame.

Gramps...

 

[hoopsjock]

There isn’t a right or wrong hoops. It’s a prediction game. I went with 35 for Lillard.

This all started because it was obvious some were thinking it was points scored in the game, not using some formula. I just wanted to make sure we were all predicting the same thing otherwise the results are skewed towards those that followed the directions. I want to win this game because my prediction was close, not just default.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Blazers 121
Wizzies 109

Dame 39.5

Starters 76
Bench 45

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Going by the prediction averages at this point, Blazers will win 119-110.

Woohoo! We don't need to play! Blazers win!!!!

 

[kjironman1]

This all started because it was obvious some were thinking it was points scored in the game, not using some formula. I just wanted to make sure we were all predicting the same thing otherwise the results are skewed towards those that followed the directions. I want to win this game because my prediction was close, not just default.

It’s a long season and I’m sure you will be at the top. You have a very analytical type approach. I on the other hand always fall out of the running because I don’t get my prediction in enough times. I’m pretty much the yearly LOSER!

 

[ripcityboy]

I am going to miss seeing Gortat out there for the Wizards. He is always a handful.