Game Thread GAME# 30: BLAZERS @ CLIPPERS - DECEMBER 17, 2018 - MONDAY, 7:30 PM, NBCSNW

[Labinot41]

FUN FACT: The Blazers currently rank 5th in the league in RPI, as they have the 3rd hardest SOS.

What is rpi ?

 

[BonesJones]

You can say that and yes even believe it but this conversation has been going on for years. SOS is based little on fact and circumstance. It ends up making intelligent people sound like they are completely dumbfounded by what goes on during a season. If someone is basing any part of their discussion on SOS they might as well be saying " We beat the Raptors and the Raptors just beat the Warriors so we are better than the Warriors". We are talking 20 plus years of discussion about SOS on multiple boards with literally hundreds of different posters. RPI is just as bad.

In the end STATS are simply stats. They work well to prove a point that people perceive to be correct. But no stat ever tells the whole story.

What? Simply put, RPI is results based, that goes further than a W/L record to rank teams, since W/L record can be deceiving because of a number of factors, including SOS.

Simply put, if we played an average schedule so far, we'd likely be 18-11 instead of 16-13. It also says we'll face easier teams over the rest of the season than other teams will. How in the world does that compare to "We beat TOR, TOR beat GS, so we're better than GS"?

 

[BonesJones]

What is rpi ?

Ratings Percentage Index. The formula is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

While it may seem weird that average opponent winning percentage makes up 75% of the formula, you have to remember that individual winning percentage is going to have a lot more deviation than an average winning percentage of multiple teams.

 

[BonesJones]

RPI has been used in college basketball as a main factor in determining and seeding NCAA Tournament teams each year. They scrapped it for a new "NET" rating this year, we'll see how that works. The flaw with using RPI to rank college teams is that it can overrate mid-majors due to major scheduling differences among groups of teams. This isn't the case in the NBA, since everyone plays nearly the same schedule after the season, and there's a much smaller talent disparity between NBA teams than there is between, say, Duke and Missouri State. Therefore, I'd argue that RPI is a more valid stat in the NBA than it is in college.

 

[kjironman1]

What? Simply put, RPI is results based, that goes further than a W/L record to rank teams, since W/L record can be deceiving because of a number of factors, including SOS.

I call bullshit on this. At the end of the season it's how many games you won. Everybody has the exact same SOS when the season is over. You can try to butter it up anyway you want but it's all about W/L record at the end of the season. Trying to say what the record would be if they played different teams is absolutely ridiculous at very best.
The same thing goes for the Playoffs. When all is said and done how many games did you win. Last year they got swept. If they make the playoffs this year they have a chance to try again. That is why it's called the second season. Even more so if you are going to try to make an assumption on how a team will do by looking at RPI or SOS you are again being ridiculous at very best. Playoff basketball never equates to season performance.

And furthermore.Trying to compare NCAA rankings to Pros is off the charts Apples and Oranges. Because there is way way less a talent disparity it doesn't even compute close to the same as College and is why it can only really find a place in college. It's what they use to justify the obscene disparity in rankings for the NCAA Tournament which is another money grab that is another topic altogether.

***Sorry Bones we are gonna have to agree to disagree on this. I ain't gonna budge on RPI or SOS. In my humble opinion they both suck as a stat to base anything worthwhile on. ***

 

[BonesJones]

I call bullshit on this. At the end of the season it's how many games you won. Everybody has the exact same SOS when the season is over. You can try to butter it up anyway you want but it's all about W/L record at the end of the season. Trying to say what the record would be if they played different teams is absolutely ridiculous at very best.
The same thing goes for the Playoffs. When all is said and done how many games did you win. Last year they got swept. If they make the playoffs this year they have a chance to try again. That is why it's called the second season. Even more so if you are going to try to make an assumption on how a team will do by looking at RPI or SOS you are again being ridiculous at very best. Playoff basketball never equates to season performance.

And furthermore.Trying to compare NCAA rankings to Pros is off the charts Apples and Oranges. Because there is way way less a talent disparity it doesn't even compute close to the same as College and is why it can only really find a place in college. It's what they use to justify the obscene disparity in rankings for the NCAA Tournament which is another money grab that is another topic altogether.

***Sorry Bones we are gonna have to agree to disagree on this. I ain't gonna budge on RPI or SOS. In my humble opinion they both suck as a stat to base anything worthwhile on. ***

Not necessarily, but close. You have East vs. West, and then differences in strengths of divisions where you guaranteed 4 games instead of 3 or 4 against other conference teams. But yes, it is very similar at the end of the season.

RPI becomes more and more reflective of actual W/L record the further you go into the season, because opponents winning percentage evens out to .500.

I'm not saying to base post-season performance off of RPI, for the reasons you stated. I'm saying it can be accurately reflective of how a teams performed compared to it's schedule over a stretch of regular season games. If you play the best 10 teams in the league over 10 games and go 5-5, that's better than playing the bottom 10 teams in the league over 10 games and going 7-3. The 1st team would be most likely (accurately) rated higher by RPI.

And what are you talking about with "Trying to compare NCAA rankings to Pros is off the charts Apples and Oranges. Because there is way way less a talent disparity it doesn't even compute close to the same as College and is why it can only really find a place in college"? Did you misunderstand what I was saying? Please clarify.

So you don't think that a team going 16-13 over a the hardest schedule in the league is more likely to finish with a better record than a team that went 17-12 over the easiest schedule in the league?

 

[kjironman1]

And what are you talking about with "Trying to compare NCAA rankings to Pros is off the charts Apples and Oranges. Because there is way way less a talent disparity it doesn't even compute close to the same as College and is why it can only really find a place in college"? Did you misunderstand what I was saying? Please clarify.

I'm saying exactly what i said. But again you seem to have left off the main point?

It's what they use to justify the obscene disparity in rankings for the NCAA Tournament which is another money grab that is another topic altogether.

The NCAA uses the tournament as a money grab. They use this stat to establish the rankings and seeds for the tournament. They deem certain programs more marketable than others and make decisions for revenue. That is and has been the true use for RPI. It doesn't translate well for teams in college and it most certainly should never be used for translation in the NBA. The way it is interpreted can be manipulated in too many ways.

*** But again these are my opinions.***

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

Need take care of business on la

 

[THE HCP]

 

[THE HCP]

You guys see who is standing WAAAAAAAAY down there by the tree?? It’s him!

 

[KeepOnRollin]

You guys see who is standing WAAAAAAAAY down there by the tree?? It’s him!

Did you just assume its gender?!?

 

[THE HCP]

Did you just assume its gender?!?

It's Melo god damnit!!!!!!

 

[THE HCP]

 

[KeepOnRollin]

It's Melo god damnit!!!!!!

 

[stampedehero]

Time to win 10 in a row like we did in '014. Do not like the Clippers at all. Perhaps our bench can hand them their fourth home loss.
>It looks like Marjanovic had his head shrunken by mysterious means.

 

[BonesJones]

I'm saying exactly what i said. But again you seem to have left off the main point?


The NCAA uses the tournament as a money grab. They use this stat to establish the rankings and seeds for the tournament. They deem certain programs more marketable than others and make decisions for revenue. That is and has been the true use for RPI. It doesn't translate well for teams in college and it most certainly should never be used for translation in the NBA. The way it is interpreted can be manipulated in too many ways.

*** But again these are my opinions.***

You're very uninformed. Simply put, this is like me telling you how to do your job.

I've spent years creating a formula weighing the numerous factors that the committee does to try to accurately reflect where they seed teams. From how much time I've spent on this, I can tell you that RPI is a very small factor when everything is said in done. They use many 3rd party advanced metrics (BPI, Sagarin, KenPom, etc) as well as things such as "wins vs. tournament teams". Last season, they left the highest ranked RPI team out of the tournament ever in USC because they had no wins verse non-automatically qualifying tournament teams. USC is much more marketable than the team they put in right ahead of them in Saint Bonaventure. Teams aren't seeded because of marketability or revenue. They'll get pretty much the same revenue regardless, because it doesn't matter whether UCLA is a 3 or a 5. You're talking about 7 or 8 bubble teams being in or out, and they've shown no pattern of catering to "more marketable" schools. They put VCU in over power conference teams in 2011 when VCU made the Final Four as an 11 seed. The committee is also made up of ADs, Conference Chairmen, and other contributors that don't have a stake in overall tournament revenue.

I assume you're going to say that I'm not accepting you disagreeing with me or whatever, but I have a ton of experience with this, and you're off-base.

 

[BonesJones]

I'm saying exactly what i said. But again you seem to have left off the main point?


The NCAA uses the tournament as a money grab. They use this stat to establish the rankings and seeds for the tournament. They deem certain programs more marketable than others and make decisions for revenue. That is and has been the true use for RPI. It doesn't translate well for teams in college and it most certainly should never be used for translation in the NBA. The way it is interpreted can be manipulated in too many ways.

*** But again these are my opinions.***

As far as the NBA goes, it's a basic formula, used to analyze a teams performance in regards to the toughness of matchups they've faced. Whether you think the premise is relevant enough or not, is another discussion. They do a good job of reflecting that premise though.

 

[BonesJones]

 

[hoopsjock]

Nice video but you have the title backwards (in the actual video.

 

[Lanny]

2017-18 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
16 - 13
(5-9 Road)
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
17 - 11
(9-3 Home)


_____________________________
---------PROBABLE STARTERS---------

PG

DAMIAN LILLARD VS SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER

SG

C.J. McCOLLUM VS AVERY BRADLEY

SF

MAURICE HARKLESS VS TOBIAS HARRIS

PF

AL-FAROUQ AMINU VS DANILO GALLINARI

C

JUSUF NURKIC VS MARCIN GORTAT


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WHEN: 7:30 PM (PST), MONDAY, 12/17/2018

WHERE: STAPLES CENTER, LOS ANGELES, CA

TV BROADCAST:

RADIO BROADCAST:

​

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--------------BENCH--------------
- PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -

CURRY , BALDWIN , SIMONS

TURNER , STAUSKAS , TRENT Jr.

LAYMAN , SWANIGAN

COLLINS , LEONARD


- LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS-

BEVERLEY , TEODOSIC , THORNWELL

WALLACE , HARRELL , SCOTT

MOTLEY , DELGADO , MARJANOVIC



INJURIES
TRAIL BLAZERS
None
CLIPPERS
Lou Williams (hamstring): OUT
Jerome Robinson (foot): OUT
Luc Mbah a Moute (knee): OUT



HEAD COACHES

- VS –

TERRY STOTTS --- DOC RIVERS

OFFICIAL CLIPPERS' GAME NOTES
OFFICIAL BLAZERS' GAME NOTES ​

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We've got the advantage at every position plus the bench plus the coach. They've only got home court advantage.

 

[BlazerBeav]

We've got the advantage at every position plus the bench plus the coach. They've only got home court advantage.

And really, do they have a homecourt advantage? Seems like the Clipper games are always some of the strongest Blazer fan turnouts around the country. DC might be the best, and we show very well in Phoenix and Sacramento too.

 

[oldmangrouch]

We've got the advantage at every position plus the bench plus the coach. They've only got home court advantage.

You are joking...right? You think Aminu and Harkless are better than Gallinari and Harris?? And when was the last time STotts gave us an advantage?

 

[Scalma]

And really, do they have a homecourt advantage? Seems like the Clipper games are always some of the strongest Blazer fan turnouts around the country. DC might be the best, and we show very well in Phoenix and Sacramento too.

I’m there usually every time they play in LA and yeah, the turnout is usually good. Better than against the Lakers. Tickets are super easy to find for Clippers games. For example, if I wanted to go tonight, I could get something in the 100 section for 40 bux.

As for the game, I’m not going to miss Lou Williams. Fully expect Gallinari and Harrell to go off though.

 

[kjironman1]

You are joking...right? You think Aminu and Harkless are better than Gallinari and Harris?? And when was the last time STotts gave us an advantage?

If the Blazers don't keep him off the 3 point line Gallinari will drop 30 on them tonight. He is shooting over 45% from three and is averaging 19 a game. He is easily having one of his best seasons of his career.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I’m there usually every time they play in LA and yeah, the turnout is usually good. Better than against the Lakers. Tickets are super easy to find for Clippers games. For example, if I wanted to go tonight, I could get something in the 100 section for 40 bux.

As for the game, I’m not going to miss Lou Williams. Fully expect Gallinari and Harrell to go off though.

Blazer Fans LA was selling them for 50!

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I'll be there but not gonna make it for the Pre-game shootaround. fucking WORK like a MOTHERFUCKER yo. ALL I DO ALL DAY IS WORK WORK WORK @HCP

 

[wizenheimer]

just a minor factoid:

Portland has lost 8 straight games, on the road, against 'playoff' teams. The average margin of loss has been 17 points. That's right, 17 points. That's pretty ugly

 

[illmatic99]

Is Dame playing

 

[BonesJones]

Nice video but you have the title backwards (in the actual video.

I have the thumbnail backwards lol

 

[riverman]

Getting back to back wins after the losing streak is a gut check win but one we need. Go Blazers!