Game Thread GAME# 37: BLAZERS @ HEAT - JANUARY 5, 2020 - SUNDAY, 3:00 PM, NBCSNW

[Tince]

I think the issue defensively is rebounding. So their a mediocre to bad defense right now anyways but they give up the 2nd most opponent offensive rebounds in the NBA, which means a lot of times they get “stops” they dont actually get stops.

Thats where injuries have hurt them, their left with whiteside as the only good rebounder left.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-offensive-rebounds-per-game

Totally agree with you about this year.

My response was regarding to the post that Stotts defensive strategy over the tenure of his time in Portland has been bad, in particular the 3pt defense. I don't think saying Game 1 of the WCF was a mess or Dragic lighting us up tonight should over shadow 600 games worth of data. The data says under Stotts we've been a little better than the league average on 3pt% defense and near the best at limited the number of 3's teams attempt. The data tells me for every time I can recall Curry, Dragic, or JJ Barea going off on us, there must be more times or more teams struggling with than same problem than us.

 

[TBpup]

The problem with 'a little better than average' in the Playoffs means you are probably ranked near the bottom of teams that are actually still remaining. We are already last in assists, near the bottom in forcing turnovers, at or near the bottom in fast break points. To be a real contender, those ranking need to be higher....end of story.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Totally agree with you about this year.

My response was regarding to the post that Stotts defensive strategy over the tenure of his time in Portland has been bad, in particular the 3pt defense. I don't think saying Game 1 of the WCF was a mess or Dragic lighting us up tonight should over shadow 600 games worth of data. The data says under Stotts we've been a little better than the league average on 3pt% defense and near the best at limited the number of 3's teams attempt. The data tells me for every time I can recall Curry, Dragic, or JJ Barea going off on us, there must be more times or more teams struggling with than same problem than us.

They were around 20th for opposition Offensive rebounds given up last year and way better the year before top 10(?). I just dont think you can combine mediocre to bad defense and give up tons of offensive boards and expect that to work. Maybe if you’re a good defensive team you can deal with it...

 

[wizenheimer]

The data says under Stotts we've been a little better than the league average on 3pt% defense and near the best at limited the number of 3's teams attempt..

that's not true though

yes, Portland was top-10 or close in opponent 3pt% with the Aldridge team, when they had solid defenders at 4 positions. Then that defense made sense. But since 2015-16, the beginning of the Dame/CJ team, Portland's average opponent 3pt% ranking has been 22nd

 

[Tince]

1st, let's be clear about something...at no point did I say Portland intentionally gives "wide open" three's to quality shooters. That isn't the plan and sometimes Portland executes the plan. But if you think the Blazers haven't been punked by wide open three's by quality shooters I refer you to game 1 of the Warrior series last year and a cat named Curry

2nd, where are you getting those numbers?

Portland opponent 3pt% ranks:

2015-16 - 28th
2016-17 - 27th
2017-18 - 16th
2018-19 - 20th
2019-20 - 17th

that's from bbref

(I didn't feel like posting the numbers from the Aldridge team because as I said, a defense that will work moderately when the defenders are guys like Matthews, Batum, and Crabbe is probably not the same defense you want when the defenders are CJ, Napier, and Curry)

that's simply not good for a playoff team with designs of being a contender. Yes, Portland tends to give up fewer attempts but think about why that may be. When a ball-handler comes around a screen and finds open shooting space, he's also going to find an open driving lane, and a lot of ball-handlers will drive instead of immediately gunning up a three like Dame and CJ. In other words, yeah, Portland gives up fewer three's, but some of that, perhaps a lot of that, is because the lane is open into the paint

and what might be the result if that's true?

2105-16 - Blazers rank 30th in opponent FG% in the 16-23' zone and rank 26th in opponent FT/FGA
2016-17 - Blazers rank 22nd in opponent FG% in the 16-23' zone and rank 28th in opponent FT/FGA
2017-18 - Blazers rank 29th in opponent FG% in the 16-23' zone and rank 18th in opponent FT/FGA
2018-19 - Blazers rank 16th in opponent FG% in the 16-23' zone and rank 16 in opponent FT/FGA

I think the biggest issue people have with that scheme, including me, isn't so much the defense but that it seems un-adaptable and static...always the same no matter the opponent. When was the last time you saw Portland aggressively jumping the PnR like teams always do against Portland & Dame? Yeah, me neither

First off, I'm an idiot. The data I was looking at was overall team defensive rating, not 3pt%. I got that off NBA.com and was using this is another thread and somehow got my wires crossed (not the first time).

I haven't double checked your data, but I have zero question it is accurate. Those numbers are not good overall and I'm surprised this year is nearly the best of the past 5 years because I don't think anyone, including myself thinks the perimeter defense is getting better; it seems awful this year.

Your PnR coverage is a great question. Maybe this is why Spoelstra was thrilled to get rid of Whiteside, because in the modern NBA guys with his foot speed can't defend at 30ft. Makes you wonder if you're better with centers like Bam or in our case, Collins, vs Whiteside or Nurk. I'm assuming you don't think Whiteside at 30ft is a good idea, but maybe it is.

 

[wizenheimer]

They were around 20th for opposition Offensive rebounds given up last year and way better the year before top 10(?). I just dont think you can combine mediocre to bad defense and give up tons of offensive boards and expect that to work. Maybe if you’re a good defensive team you can deal with it...

even before the injuries, this year's team was going to be weaker at rebounding. Aminu was a much better rebounder than Zach. Harkless was a much better rebounder than Hood; Meyers was as about as good a rebounder as Skal; Turner a better rebounder than Bazemore. Portland got worse at rebounding across the rotation except for Whiteside. That was a choice that Olshey made

 

[Tince]

The problem with 'a little better than average' in the Playoffs means you are probably ranked near the bottom of teams that are actually still remaining. We are already last in assists, near the bottom in forcing turnovers, at or near the bottom in fast break points. To be a real contender, those ranking need to be higher....end of story.

Totally agree. This year we are awful. Being average in all categories would lead to an average team, we agree. If you could pick 3-5 statistical categories that you think represent a team that will win, what would you pick? Obviously every team is average or worse in a handful of statistical categories, so determining which ones actually matter is what I'm always looking for.

 

[hoopsjock]

I think the biggest issue people have with that scheme, including me, isn't so much the defense but that it seems un-adaptable and static...always the same no matter the opponent. When was the last time you saw Portland aggressively jumping the PnR like teams always do against Portland & Dame? Yeah, me neither

This last part has been my #1 issue with Stotts. No defense works against every team. Even if Stotts' scheme was by far the best single coverage you could possibly play if you're going to play one type of defense, it still wouldn't be right to only play that style. This is why we struggle in a playoff series or against good teams. If a team knows exactly how you will defend certain situations or PnR then it's too easy for them to get good looks. Stotts actually changed up his defense in the WCF after Game 1 but that leads to the next problem is that the players were trying to figure out how to run a different defense that they hadn't tried all season which meant that the rotations were just a fraction of a second too slow and when you play a well oiled machine like the Warriors they make you pay. Then what happens is the Blazers play that "new" defense the whole game and the Warriors figure it out by halftime and make adjustments while the Blazers continue to run the same coverages.

So not only do you need to run different types of defenses against different teams but you also have to be able to mix up coverages within each game (at least against good teams) if you want to be an elite defensive team. That way when a guy like Goran Dragic is shooting lights out you can throw different things at him. There are lots of good players in this league that can make tough shots and score no matter what the defense is but if you try multiple things you simply tip your cap and try better next time. Instead it's like we just let players get comfortable and into rhythms without trying to alter that.

The funny thing is Stotts has seen first hand how effective traps can be against Dame but if he was coaching against Dame he wouldn't trap him. That's completely insane to me. Plumlee used to BEG Stotts to let him trap and hedge harder off of screens. They actually did it against Harden one game and he shit his pants and Houston blew a big lead. After that game we hedged a few times but it quickly faded back into the old way of doing things.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

even before the injuries, this year's team was going to be weaker at rebounding. Aminu was a much better rebounder than Zach. Harkless was a much better rebounder than Hood; Meyers was as about as good a rebounder as Skal; Turner a better rebounder than Bazemore. Portland got worse at rebounding across the rotation except for Whiteside. That was a choice that Olshey made

How do you know if Zach was going to become a better rebounder or not? Do you remember where Aminu was when he first got to Portland or his third year in the league?
Aminu’s trb% in year 2 of his career was a tiny bit less than Zachs, in his 2nd year.
I dont know if Zach was going to make a leap this year or not but we never really got to figure that out.

 

[wizenheimer]

First off, I'm an idiot. The data I was looking at was overall team defensive rating, not 3pt%. I got that off NBA.com and was using this is another thread and somehow got my wires crossed (not the first time).

I haven't double checked your data, but I have zero question it is accurate. Those numbers are not good overall and I'm surprised this year is nearly the best of the past 5 years because I don't think anyone, including myself thinks the perimeter defense is getting better; it seems awful this year.

Your PnR coverage is a great question. Maybe this is why Spoelstra was thrilled to get rid of Whiteside, because in the modern NBA guys with his foot speed can't defend at 30ft. Makes you wonder if you're better with centers like Bam or in our case, Collins, vs Whiteside or Nurk. I'm assuming you don't think Whiteside at 30ft is a good idea, but maybe it is.

no problem man. we all make mistakes, I think my last one was just now

it does bring up the question about traditional C's. Are they becoming obsolete? Whiteside is not good on the perimeter and in the PnR. That's obvious and Nurkic was/is better. I think people have mythologized Nurkic's defense a bit. Still, it's best if he's not out on the edges much.

Collins? maybe but the issues I see with him are 1) in his first 2 seasons, much of his foul trouble came when he had switched on to mobile forwards and 2) he's a crappy rebounder. Collins has a rebound rate of 12%; Abedayo's rate is 17.4%. And we're already talking about Portland's rebounding problems. Imagine how bad they'd be if Collins was the C and not Whiteside or Nurkic

 

[hoopsjock]

I haven't double checked your data, but I have zero question it is accurate. Those numbers are not good overall and I'm surprised this year is nearly the best of the past 5 years because I don't think anyone, including myself thinks the perimeter defense is getting better; it seems awful this year.

And this is why I believe it's scheme, not talent. Everyone thinks Harkless and Aminu were such great defenders but shouldn't that reflect in the numbers then like you always say?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

And this is why I believe it's scheme, not talent. Everyone thinks Harkless and Aminu were such great defenders but shouldn't that reflect in the numbers then like you always say?

numbers wise they ere both a heck of a lot better than Melo is especially on defense, bazemore's ok.. After that though we got Tolliver and Mario I guess who are just bad.

 

[hoopsjock]

Your PnR coverage is a great question. Maybe this is why Spoelstra was thrilled to get rid of Whiteside, because in the modern NBA guys with his foot speed can't defend at 30ft. Makes you wonder if you're better with centers like Bam or in our case, Collins, vs Whiteside or Nurk. I'm assuming you don't think Whiteside at 30ft is a good idea, but maybe it is.

Game 1 of the season against Denver I saw Whiteside hard hedge Murray coming off a screen allowing the guard to recover and then got back to his man quick enough to prevent a pass to him, but that must have been instincts because it's been coached out of him.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Game 1 of the season against Denver I saw Whiteside hard hedge Murray coming off a screen allowing the guard to recover and then got back to his man quick enough to prevent a pass to him, but that must have been instincts because it's been coached out of him.

Or Jokic is also really slow.

 

[wizenheimer]

How do you know if Zach was going to become a better rebounder or not? Do you remember where Aminu was when he first got to Portland or his third year in the league?
Aminu’s trb% in year 2 of his career was a tiny bit less than Zachs, in his 2nd year.
I dont know if Zach was going to make a leap this year or not but we never really got to figure that out.

what are you talking about? I wasn't projecting Zach's rebounding rate ahead to 2023. Last August I was projecting him ahead 2 months

and if he was going to make a jump in rebounding he was off to a bad start. His rebounding rate dropped 43% in the two games he played. Sure, sample size, but it was not a good sign

 

[hoopsjock]

numbers wise they ere both a heck of a lot better than Melo is especially on defense, bazemore's ok.. After that though we got Tolliver and Mario I guess who are just bad.

So the 3 point % defense is better this year because we have worse individual defenders?

 

[hoopsjock]

Or Jokic is also really slow.

Or Jokic got in foul trouble and wasn't in the game every time it happened.

 

[wizenheimer]

So the 3 point % defense is better this year because we have worse individual defenders?

I think we have to probably wait till game 82 to judge if it's actually better. Every other season had an 82 game sample size, this one isn't even half done

 

[hoopsjock]

I think we have to probably wait till game 82 to judge if it's actually better. Every other season had an 82 game sample size, this one isn't even half done

Yes, I agree. I just hate using individual defensive stats for anything.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

So the 3 point % defense is better this year because we have worse individual defenders?

well just because it's ranked a couple spots higher than last year I wouldn't say it's better, it's still just bad.
Here's the thing though last year they had the same schemes and coaches and were a heck of a lot better than they are this year with the same coaches and scheme's. The changes are the roster which is drastically worse (partially because of injuries), and they are drastically worse at winning basketball games. So yeah the scheme's bad and has been bad, but the biggest changes to the team are who's playing and who's on the team. The roster stinks.

 

[hoopsjock]

well just because it's ranked a couple spots higher than last year I wouldn't say it's better, it's still just bad.
Here's the thing though last year they had the same schemes and coaches and were a heck of a lot better than they are this year with the same coaches and scheme's. The changes are the roster which is drastically worse (partially because of injuries), and they are drastically worse at winning basketball games. So yeah the scheme's bad and has been bad, but the biggest changes to the team are who's playing and who's on the team. The roster stinks.

There have been very few games where I thought both the players had energy and focus the entire game and that the coaching staff tried everything possible to fix that.

Until that occurs I just can't agree that the roster is the problem.

Complacency has set in.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

what are you talking about? I wasn't projecting Zach's rebounding rate ahead to 2023. Last August I was projecting him ahead 2 months

and if he was going to make a jump in rebounding he was off to a bad start. His rebounding rate dropped 43% in the two games he played. Sure, sample size, but it was not a good sign

You were saying Aminu is just a better rebounder than Zach. I'm saying Zach in theory is on the upswing portion of his career, and yes he had two games that weren't special, but we don't know if he was in for a jump or not. Obviously right or wrong the Blazers thought he was going to make a jump this year.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

There have been very few games where I thought both the players had energy and focus the entire game and that the coaching staff tried everything possible to fix that.

Until that occurs I just can't agree that the roster is the problem.

Complacency has set in.

So yesterday you said it was injuries and then coaching. Now it's scheme? Which makes me think you do think it's coaching...
Injuries are part of the roster. You also seemed to get annoyed that I thought you were insinuating that the problem is the coaching. Now you're saying the problem is the coaching.

 

[hoopsjock]

So yesterday you said it was injuries and then coaching. Now it's scheme? Which makes me think you do think it's coaching...
Injuries are part of the roster. You also seemed to get annoyed that I thought you were insinuating that the problem is the coaching. Now you're saying the problem is the coaching.

I listed what my issues were in order. Having Nurk and Collins back can help compensate for shit coaching therefore the injuries are the biggest problem.

But I'm so fucking sick of the injury and roster excuse when players are constantly out of position on defense, don't play as a team, there's very little ball movement, and there's a complete lack of focus and energy. These are coachable things. I've watched 3 full Raptors games this season other than the Blazer game and in those games I've seen Nurse try a box and one, a full court press, a trapping 1-3-1 zone, and multiple PnR coverages and those have mostly been in games where they've been playing guys like Malcolm Miller, Terrence Davis, and Chris Boucher heavy minutes. If they lose it's not from a lack of trying. Then I watch the Heat tonight who started two undrafted players who aren't good defenders and Meyers Leonard and they made the Blazers offense look terrible until the 2nd half when they actually started playing with urgency.

But don't worry, they had ONE practice the other day where they focused on just defense so it will all get better soon!

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I listed what my issues were in order. Having Nurk and Collins back can help compensate for shit coaching therefore the injuries are the biggest problem.

But I'm so fucking sick of the injury and roster excuse when players are constantly out of position on defense, don't play as a team, there's very little ball movement, and there's a complete lack of focus and energy. These are coachable things. I've watched 3 full Raptors games this season other than the Blazer game and in those games I've seen Nurse try a box and one, a full court press, a trapping 1-3-1 zone, and multiple PnR coverages and those have mostly been in games where they've been playing guys like Malcolm Miller, Terrence Davis, and Chris Boucher heavy minutes. If they lose it's not from a lack of trying. Then I watch the Heat tonight who started two undrafted players who aren't good defenders and Meyers Leonard and they made the Blazers offense look terrible until the 2nd half when they actually started playing with urgency.

But don't worry, they had ONE practice the other day where they focused on just defense so it will all get better soon!

The Raptors are better than the Blazers talent wise. I get it the coaching isnt great, but the Blazers basically have Dame and then if you want to say CJ and WS are good fine, but after that, thats it. You know as well as anyone that draft position isnt a true gauge on talent.

Our bench is a bust in Mario, a guy who wasnt supposed to play in Little, a guy they were expecting to play a big role but isnt ready, Simons. Then a 6’7 SF being asked to play Center in Tolliver.... They just arent a well constructed team.

Nick Nurse wouldnt make the Blazers a good team, because they just arent a good team. Its not an injury excuse, its just the truth the roster is bad, and the coaching is bad.

Im not defending Stotts, I dont really care much either way if he’s fired, in fact maybe that’ll inspire them to win a few games, but it wont change the fact there 2nd best player has been out all year, their 3rd best player is CJ, and Melo is both a bad offensive and defensive player at this point.

 

[hoopsjock]

The Raptors are better than the Blazers talent wise. I get it the coaching isnt great, but the Blazers basically have Dame and then if you want to say CJ and WS are good fine, but after that, thats it. You know as well as anyone that draft position isnt a true gauge on talent.

Our bench is a bust in Mario, a guy who wasnt supposed to play in Little, a guy they were expecting to play a big role but isnt ready, Simons. Then a 6’7 SF being asked to play Center in Tolliver.... They just arent a well constructed team.

Nick Nurse wouldnt make the Blazers a good team, because they just arent a good team. Its not an injury excuse, its just the truth the roster is bad, and the coaching is bad.

Im not defending Stotts, I dont really care much either way if he’s fired, in fact maybe that’ll inspire them to win a few games, but it wont change the fact there 2nd best player has been out all year, their 3rd best player is CJ, and Melo is both a bad offensive and defensive player at this point.

See the coaches and players seemingly have adopted this same philosophy that they just suck so why even try?

You keep just dismissing the roster as bad but that doesn't dispute anything I've said about fixable problems. If Tolliver gets scored on because he's 5 inches shorter than the guy he's guarding and he just shoots over the top of him then fine, that's a roster issue. That's not what's happening though. There are multiple times a game players don't even know where to stand off ball or who they're even suppose to be guarding.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

See the coaches and players seemingly have adopted this same philosophy that they just suck so why even try?

You keep just dismissing the roster as bad but that doesn't dispute anything I've said about fixable problems. If Tolliver gets scored on because he's 5 inches shorter than the guy he's guarding and he just shoots over the top of him then fine, that's a roster issue. That's not what's happening though. There are multiple times a game players don't even know where to stand off ball or who they're even suppose to be guarding.

It could be that they have a bunch of low iq defenders. Pops has coached some of the best defenses in the history of the NBA, but they arent good this year, theres a chance that he didnt forget how to coach a defense and a drastic decrease in high IQ basketball players and talent has hurt them.

Saying the whole team is clueless, well ok Id agree and yeah some of thats coaching, but guess what Miami fans said that Whiteside was a clueless team defender last year, is Spoelstra a good or a bad coach?

 

[H.C.]

Same posts, same posters, different year.

Reading some of these posts you would think we're Charlotte.
Not a franchise less than a year removed from the WCF.
Sure got swept again. But that's the 3rd round. Many of this forum believed round 1 was the ceiling Lillard & CJ could get to.
They were wrong.
Just like they're wrong now.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Same posts, same posters, different year.

Reading some of these posts, you would think we're Charlotte.
Not a franchise less than a year removed from the WCF.
Sure got swept again. But that's the 3rd round. Many of this forum believed round 1 was the ceiling Lillard & CJ could get to.
They were wrong.
Just like they're wrong now.

I think they’ll be fine with some roster moves and maybe coaching, and health. Its just that they need all 3 of those things to get back to the wcf.

Im not upset or emotional at all about where the Blazers are at right now. Just saying what my opinion is.

 

[BonesJones]

Don't you think of Dragic was 1/7 throughout the game and then hit a late 3 people would be all over Stotts for leaving him open at the end?

No, they wouldnt...