Game Thread GAME# 48: ROCKETS @ BLAZERS - JANUARY 29, 2020 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM, ESPN & NBCSNW

[GhostOfPGA]

Ok, lets look at the season as a whole....

Lillard ----- 1,333 points on 912 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Whiteside - 687 points on 472 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Hood ----- 230 points on 172 FGAs (1.34 p/a)
Skal ------- 190 points on 147 FGAs (1.29 p/a)

Trent ------- 202 points on 176 FGAs (1.15 p/a)
McCollum - 952 points on 833 FGAs (1.14 p/a)
Anthony --- 522 points on 466 FGAs (1.12 p/a)
Little ------- 128 points on 115 FGAs (1.11 p/a)
Simons ---- 435 points on 406 FGAs (1.07 p/a)

McCollum & Anthony are right in the middle of a bunch of 1-2 year players.... with "meh" efficiency.

*** I didn't put Mario, Baze or Tolliver on here 'cause we know they suck ***

This makes me miss Hood.

 

[wizenheimer]

CJ and Melo didn’t take many “bad” shots last night. CJ had some bad passes and decisions but his shots were all pretty much in his wheelhouse. Melo just couldn’t hit shots, shit happens.

I disagree. In the game against Indiana CJ didn't go MeJ more than 4 or 5 times. He stayed within the offense and didn't pound ball and burn shot clock. His assisted FG rate in that game was 67%. He scored 1.33 points/shot when his season average is 1.14

last night, he went MeJ way too much and it killed offensive flow. I saw other Blazers standing around and watching CJ. His assisted FG rate last night was 33% (3-9) and he scored 1.15 points/shot. Dame was at 1.74 points/shot; Ariza 1.50; Whiteside 1.67; Trent 1.43; Little 2.00

Apparently, CJ thinks his 'wheelhouse' is iso and going one on one. I guess clever ball-handling creates illusion. But the thing is CJ is not an efficient scorer. His clever ball-handling doesn't yield good efficiency, largely because he can't get to the line, and when he does, he's not that dependable. CJ should not be dominating and stopping the ball as much as he does. He over-dribbles and burns clock for an average result, and with the ball in his hands, the offense doesn't run well because he's a poor facilitator.

CJ's assisted FG rate should be close to 60% instead of the 36% it is. He's good in catch and shoot, spot up, and one dribble moves. But he's bad in iso. How bad? Right now, CJ is averaging 0.86 points per possession in isolation. That puts him in the 47th percentile. That means more than half of the NBA is better than him. Dame is in the 90th percentile, and what makes that even more glaring a difference is that Dame is always facing the best defender and the focus of the defense. CJ drafts off that and is still bad

points/shot:

Dame 1.46
Whiteside 1.45
Hood 1.34
Skal 1.29
Ariza 1.24 (full season; 1.53 in Portland)
Trent 1.15
CJ 1.14
Melo 1.12
Simons 1.07

look at that ranking with the fact in mind that Portland averages, as a team, 1.24 points/shot. Any player below that average should be shooting less in favor of the players that are above that line. But that doesn't happen with CJ...he shoots a ton. He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb

 

[GhostOfPGA]

I disagree. In the game against Indiana CJ didn't go MeJ more than 4 or 5 times. He stayed within the offense and didn't pound ball and burn shot clock. His assisted FG rate in that game was 67%. He scored 1.33 points/shot when his season average is 1.14

last night, he went MeJ way too much and it killed offensive flow. I saw other Blazers standing around and watching CJ. His assisted FG rate last night was 33% (3-9) and he scored 1.15 points/shot. Dame was at 1.74 points/shot; Ariza 1.50; Whiteside 1.67; Trent 1.43; Little 2.00

Apparently, CJ thinks his 'wheelhouse' is iso and going one on one. I guess clever ball-handling creates illusion. But the thing is CJ is not an efficient scorer. His clever ball-handling doesn't yield good efficiency, largely because he can't get to the line, and when he does, he's not that dependable. CJ should not be dominating and stopping the ball as much as he does. He over-dribbles and burns clock for an average result, and with the ball in his hands, the offense doesn't run well because he's a poor facilitator.

CJ's assisted FG rate should be close to 60% instead of the 36% it is. He's good in catch and shoot, spot up, and one dribble moves. But he's bad in iso. How bad? Right now, CJ is averaging 0.86 points per possession in isolation. That puts him in the 47th percentile. That means more than half of the NBA is better than him. Dame is in the 90th percentile, and what makes that even more glaring a difference is that Dame is always facing the best defender and the focus of the defense. CJ drafts off that and is still bad

points/shot:

Dame 1.46
Whiteside 1.45
Hood 1.34
Skal 1.29
Ariza 1.24 (full season; 1.53 in Portland)
Trent 1.15
CJ 1.14
Melo 1.12
Simons 1.07

look at that ranking with the fact in mind that Portland averages, as a team, 1.24 points/shot. Any player below that average should be shooting less in favor of the players that are above that line. But that doesn't happen with CJ...he shoots a ton. He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb

I’m talking about the shots in general, he didn’t take a lot of what I’d consider bad shots. I do agree that his ball movement and decision making sucks though.

 

[bobf]

Wow. Yeah I am shocked that's Batum's career BPM is that high.

 

[bobf]

you're right....I was kind of blurring distinctions in my brain that late in the day

on the other hand, the baseline for BPM is an average player on an average team; BPM is an estimate of how many points/100-possessions above, or below, that baseline the player contributes. So, I'd think there might be a little bump, or drag, to a players production depending on the quality of his team

it's kind of interesting thinking about that baseline and at the career BPM of current, and past, Blazers:

Lillard +4.2
Batum +2.3
Aldridge +1.5
Ariza +1.4
Nurkic + 1.3
Matthews +0.9
Whiteside +0.8
Melo +0.8
Harkless +0.4
CJ + 0.2
Lopez 0.0
Aminu -0.1
Curry -0.1
W. Barton -0.4
Tolliver -0.6
Hood -1.0
Kanter -1.1
Bazemore -1.2
Meyers -1.3
Collins -1.4
Turner -2.0
Hezonja -3.1

looking at that list, the only one that surprises me is Batum.

and, how good is Dame?

another thing: what the fuck was Olshey thinking last summer?

 

[bobf]

I’d don’t know what Olshey was thinking last summer. His moves made us about 9 wins worse based on BPM/RPM and minutes played. It’s even worse than it looks on your list when you take into account that Tolliver is old and much worse than his average would indicate. Also, Tolliver and Hezonja are even worse when you look at their RPM stats. Fortunately Trent, Little, Skal, and now Ariza may be poised to fill in the gaping holes.

 

[bobf]

Ok, lets look at the season as a whole....

Lillard ----- 1,333 points on 912 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Whiteside - 687 points on 472 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Hood ----- 230 points on 172 FGAs (1.34 p/a)
Skal ------- 190 points on 147 FGAs (1.29 p/a)

Trent ------- 202 points on 176 FGAs (1.15 p/a)
McCollum - 952 points on 833 FGAs (1.14 p/a)
Anthony --- 522 points on 466 FGAs (1.12 p/a)
Little ------- 128 points on 115 FGAs (1.11 p/a)
Simons ---- 435 points on 406 FGAs (1.07 p/a)

McCollum & Anthony are right in the middle of a bunch of 1-2 year players.... with "meh" efficiency.

*** I didn't put Mario, Baze or Tolliver on here 'cause we know they suck ***

I think you’d be better off using TS% than points per shot. Probably won’t change the order of your list but it’s a closer reflection of efficiency as it counts possessions used up on FTA and not just FGA.

I agree with your points though. CJ is not that efficient. Melo... I’ll be glad when he’s gone. He sucks but he sucks with style so he’s totally overrated. One thing about CJ though. In the playoffs when it gets much tougher to score... CJ can still score so relatively speaking he becomes more efficient than he is in regular season.

 

[Tince]

I’d don’t know what Olshey was thinking last summer. His moves made us about 9 wins worse based on BPM/RPM and minutes played. It’s even worse than it looks on your list when you take into account that Tolliver is old and much worse than his average would indicate. Also, Tolliver and Hezonja are even worse when you look at their RPM stats. Fortunately Trent, Little, Skal, and now Ariza may be poised to fill in the gaping holes.

This is probably why Vegas and the national media predicted a decrease in our win total, while the locals who wanted a change for the sake of change felt the need to overvalue the moves to justify them.

Our scheme didn't get drastically worse, but the roster (moves and injuries) sure did.

 

[HailBlazers]

I’d don’t know what Olshey was thinking last summer.

"Man I really f'ed us in 2016."

 

[TBpup]

Ok, lets look at the season as a whole....

Lillard ----- 1,333 points on 912 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Whiteside - 687 points on 472 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Hood ----- 230 points on 172 FGAs (1.34 p/a)
Skal ------- 190 points on 147 FGAs (1.29 p/a)

Trent ------- 202 points on 176 FGAs (1.15 p/a)
McCollum - 952 points on 833 FGAs (1.14 p/a)
Anthony --- 522 points on 466 FGAs (1.12 p/a)
Little ------- 128 points on 115 FGAs (1.11 p/a)
Simons ---- 435 points on 406 FGAs (1.07 p/a)

McCollum & Anthony are right in the middle of a bunch of 1-2 year players.... with "meh" efficiency.

*** I didn't put Mario, Baze or Tolliver on here 'cause we know they suck ***

Good post....'bigger picture'.

"He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb."

That is downright abyssmal and very selfish.

 

[illmatic99]

CJ's problem is his inability to get to the line. He shoots decently from everywhere, but if even 2 of those FGAs from midrange became 4 FTAs, he'd be so much more efficient.

These are the only players in the league putting up 20 ppg on less than 4 FT attempts per game. This is unheard of that he can't even make 2 free throws a game given how much he has the ball in his hands.



He struggles to get contact and is so focused on making midrange shots instead. Even if he could make two of those midrangers into three point attempts, I think it could work to increase his TS% and indirectly his p/a to a decent level.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Good post....'bigger picture'.

"He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb."

That is downright abyssmal and very selfish.

If we're looking at CJ's FGA, we should be looking at his EFG, not his TS%. He's only 71st in the league in EFG, not as bad as the 152nd in TS%. And actually only 20th in the NBA in FGA/100p. So his usage vs efficiency is not quite as bad as you suggest. I mean, it's not great, but also not egregious.

 

[wizenheimer]

If we're looking at CJ's FGA, we should be looking at his EFG, not his TS%. He's only 71st in the league in EFG, not as bad as the 152nd in TS%. And actually only 20th in the NBA in FGA/100p. So his usage vs efficiency is not quite as bad as you suggest. I mean, it's not great, but also not egregious.

I don't really agree. Maybe that's my bias because I've never liked eFG or found it an accurate representation of shooting or scoring. Any shooting stat that completely disregards FT's is incomplete. I know it's not artful, but drawing fouls and making FT's are a critical part of the game. That's because they are an end product of many possessions. If CJ is poor at that 'skill', then many Blazer possessions are ending in an inefficient manner. And considering CJ's usage and FGA's, that's a significant percentage of Portland's possessions.

last season, CJ had a better eFG% than Dame. He had better 2ptFG and 3ptFG percentages as well. But Dame scored 4.8 more points/game on only 1.4 more FGA/game. Dame averaged 1.35 points/shot vs CJ at 1.18. Dame had a .588 TS% while CJ had a .553 TS%. Looking at all that, there's no doubt who was the better scorer and better shooter; TS% reflects all that. Dame outscored CJ by 3.6 points/game from the FT line. eFG% completely ignores those points, and that makes me tend to generally ignore eFG%

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I don't really agree. Maybe that's my bias because I've never liked eFG or found it an accurate representation of shooting or scoring. Any shooting stat that completely disregards FT's is incomplete. I know it's not artful, but drawing fouls and making FT's are a critical part of the game. That's because they are an end product of many possessions. If CJ is poor at that 'skill', then many Blazer possessions are ending in an inefficient manner. And considering CJ's usage and FGA's, that's a significant percentage of Portland's possessions.

last season, CJ had a better eFG% than Dame. He had better 2ptFG and 3ptFG percentages as well. But Dame scored 4.8 more points/game on only 1.4 more FGA/game. Dame averaged 1.35 points/shot vs CJ at 1.18. Dame had a .588 TS% while CJ had a .553 TS%. Looking at all that, there's no doubt who was the better scorer and better shooter; TS% reflects all that. Dame outscored CJ by 3.6 points/game from the FT line. eFG% completely ignores those points, and that makes me tend to generally ignore eFG%

I don't disagree that TS is superior to EFG when looking at overall scoring efficiency. All I'm saying is that if we're specifically looking at his FGA, EFG is the more relevant efficiency stat. If we're looking at usage rate, for example, then TS makes much more sense.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't disagree that TS is superior to EFG when looking at overall scoring efficiency. All I'm saying is that if we're specifically looking at his FGA, EFG is the more relevant efficiency stat. If we're looking at usage rate, for example, then TS makes much more sense.

ok....I guess

I'm not really clear it is on what you're trying to gauge....?

when I used FGA's, points/shot and TS%, what I was going for was to gauge the product of a possession. Who used that possession and how he ranks compared to others. Measure a possession's efficiency in generated points....the scoreboard in other words.

the efficiency ratio between two's and three's gauges those things poorly, IMO