Game Thread GAME# 54: CELTICS @ BLAZERS - APRIL 13, 2021 - TUESDAY, 7:00, TNT & NBCSNW

[kjironman1]

Good news: We won the all-important assist battle!

I agree with your position that assists don't correlate to wins but you have to admit when the team shows they can share the ball they seem to score better.
However i would also say offensive rebounds could indeed have a much bigger impact like we all watched in this game.
One possession had 4 offensive rebounds and a toss off of a celtic player to get possession back that eventually netted 3 points. Those missed opportunities for an assist never materialized. If one had early in that possession the offensive rebounds don't happen?

 

[crandc]

you think we lost the game on a missed shot? really?

In a close game everything matters.

It's one thing to criticize a coach or player, but the absolute hate is not OK. One person here said he has never hated anyone as much as he hates Stotts. Seriously.

That is really out of line.

 

[PCmor7]

Not my opinion. Just the facts.

OK

 

[kjironman1]

In a close game everything matters.

It's one thing to criticize a coach or player, but the absolute hate is not OK. One person here said he has never hated anyone as much as he hates Stotts. Seriously.

That is really out of line.

Yep!
Completely out of line.
Saying they want a player injured is just as out of line.

 

[illmatic99]

In a close game everything matters.

It's one thing to criticize a coach or player, but the absolute hate is not OK. One person here said he has never hated anyone as much as he hates Stotts. Seriously.

That is really out of line.

game threads are toxic places where people vent. no excuse for that stuff but this is nothing new.

it's a function of expectations.

 

[SIeepwalker]

You're better than this, right?

no

 

[TBpup]

Never did hear anything address for why Melo and CJ were in the game on the final posession where Tatum hit a '3'. Dame/CJ/Powell/Melo/Nurkic guarantees that Tatum (who is most likely to take the final shot), will either have a poor, very poor, or undersized defender on him for that final shot.

Meanwhile, RoCo and DJ (2 guys acquired for defense) are sitting on the bench. I'm not a fan of Olshey, but that is entirely on Stotts who had the resources available to put his team in a better position to win in that circumstance.

#Fail

 

[kjironman1]

game threads are toxic places where people vent. no excuse for that stuff but this is nothing new.

it's a function of expectations.

Complicit is a word.

 

[Cugel]

Yeah the two acquired for defense specifically: on the bench.
You can't make this shit up.
And don't expect Nas to grow on 7 min a game either. Another head scratcher.

 

[TBpup]

Yeah the two acquired for defense specifically: on the bench.
You can't make this shit up.
And don't expect Nas to grow on 7 min a game either. Another head scratcher.

In the first half when Little played ~4 minutes, he didn't touch the ball a single time on offense. His only touches came off of rebounds and then he would go reluctantly go to the corner. He hasn't has a stretch of play over 4 minutes in the last two games yet is one of the better defenders who actually WANTS to take on the toughest repsonsibility, and one of the higher efficiency scorers.

Un-freaking-believable.

 

[Hoopguru]

In a close game everything matters.

It's one thing to criticize a coach or player, but the absolute hate is not OK. One person here said he has never hated anyone as much as he hates Stotts. Seriously.

That is really out of line.

Yeah, whatever happened to one for all, and all for one.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

is Portland going to be able to hold off Dallas for 6th seed?

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only a 1 game lead for Portland in loss column...but that's effectively 2 games because Blazers own the tiebreaker

I'd be worried about the Grizzlies and San Antonio, too.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Exactly. And a big reason we were in this is because of Melo. The problem isn’t too much Melo. It’s not enough Melo. When he’s on, it’s always competitive. When he’s off, we’re terrible.

Despite him scoring 25, we were a minus 7 while he was on the court. We lost by one point.

 

[twobullz]

Have the Blazers won any games this year wearing the Spurs jerseys?

 

[Tince]

You're better than this, right?

Better than what? I should be upset? What would that accomplish?

I wish we would've won. Upset? Angry? Emotionally out of balance? Ready to wish injury on another person? Not at all.

 

[Tince]

where did you get those numbers? They are interesting but I'd like more context

I just pulled the standing off basketball reference, added the # of all-stars each team add, and popped it into a pivot table.

I can send you over the raw data if you'd like.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Despite him scoring 25, we were a minus 7 while he was on the court. We lost by one point.

And to give some season long context: He is rated 76th out of 80 power forwards on real plus minus . Even his offensive real plus minus is negative. His overall real plus minus is minus 3.39; which is pretty bad for a team that has won 8 more games than they lost.

 

[TBpup]

And to give some season long context: He is rated 76th out of 80 power forwards on real plus minus . Even his offensive real plus minus is negative. His overall real plus minus is minus 3.39; which is pretty bad for a team that has won 8 more games than they lost.

None of that seems to matter to The Walnut. Defense, efficiency.....not part of the equation for the Ter-Bear.

 

[Tince]

I agree with your position that assists don't correlate to wins but you have to admit when the team shows they can share the ball they seem to score better.
However i would also say offensive rebounds could indeed have a much bigger impact like we all watched in this game.
One possession had 4 offensive rebounds and a toss off of a celtic player to get possession back that eventually netted 3 points. Those missed opportunities for an assist never materialized. If one had early in that possession the offensive rebounds don't happen?

I'm with you on all your later points.

I'm all for any offense that scores efficiently over a long period of time. I prefer watching the free flowing ball movement to isolation basketball, so all things being equal, this was way better. I think it's clear that Nurk provides a totally different skill set allowing us to run different action off his movement. Melo obviously scored at a rate higher than we can likely depend on, so our total scoring might've been over-inflated there. On the flip side, I thought Dame/CJ shot under their expected percentage given the looks they got.

I hope we continue to try more of what we saw tonight. Obviously I prefer wins to assists/style of play... but if we can have all 3, great!

 

[kjironman1]

On the flip side, I thought Dame/CJ shot under their expected percentage given the looks they got.

No question.

The Blazers easily could have scored 130 last night. We watched Lillard get probably the quietest 28 i have ever seen. No question he could have dropped 40 with the open looks he got. We all know CJ could have added 10 more. Take some away from Melo and add some to what Boston could have got as well and you still get the win.

 

[donkiez]

The way we closed out the 3rd quarter cost us the game. We had a good quarter then the last minute or two were just a mess of laziness and distraction.

 

[wizenheimer]

I just pulled the standing off basketball reference, added the # of all-stars each team add, and popped it into a pivot table.

I can send you over the raw data if you'd like.

thanks, but no thanks. I have enough trivia on my plate.

what was the sample size? 1 season? 10?

Portland and Dame have been really overachieving then, because their 1-all-star winning percentage since the Aldridge team broke-up is .560. Of course, there is a difference between all-star and top-15 player

 

[Tince]

thanks, but no thanks. I have enough trivia on my plate.

what was the sample size? 1 season? 10?

Portland and Dame have been really overachieving then, because their 1-all-star winning percentage since the Aldridge team broke-up is .560. Of course, there is a difference between all-star and top-15 player

Great question... that chart was just this season, but I have a mini off-season project where I plan to compile 20-30 seasons worth of data for various things and this will certainly be included. I've already started chipping away at the project and I'm seeing fairly strong trends pop up. I want to dig on the best way to "rank" players, but I don't have any metric I love. Any suggestions?

I had pulled a couple other seasons of standings/all-stars and the correlation is very strong. I think there is more bias between regular season record and all-star selections in compared to post-season success and all-star selections.

 

[PCmor7]

I just pulled the standing off basketball reference, added the # of all-stars each team add, and popped it into a pivot table.

I can send you over the raw data if you'd like.

It's incredible that the Celtics have lost so many games this year ... a quirk in the schedule has them playing more teams with more than two all-stars than anyone else in the NBA.

 

[wizenheimer]

Great question... that chart was just this season, but I have a mini off-season project where I plan to compile 20-30 seasons worth of data for various things and this will certainly be included. I've already started chipping away at the project and I'm seeing fairly strong trends pop up. I want to dig on the best way to "rank" players, but I don't have any metric I love. Any suggestions?

I had pulled a couple other seasons of standings/all-stars and the correlation is very strong. I think there is more bias between regular season record and all-star selections in compared to post-season success and all-star selections.

well, going by the long-running discussion here, I think it would be interesting to gauge the average defensive ratings of the 4 teams that make it to the conference finals, and among those 4 teams, the rate at which the higher ranked defense won the series. Just glancing at the last 20 years of the NBA finals, my sense is that the higher ranked defense won about 60-70% of the time, but that might be wrong. I suppose you could expand that to the teams that advance past the first round

in that same vein, it might be interesting to see if rating/point differentials actually translate to higher winning percentages in the playoffs

 

[BBert]

Never did hear anything address for why Melo and CJ were in the game on the final posession where Tatum hit a '3'. Dame/CJ/Powell/Melo/Nurkic guarantees that Tatum (who is most likely to take the final shot), will either have a poor, very poor, or undersized defender on him for that final shot.

Meanwhile, RoCo and DJ (2 guys acquired for defense) are sitting on the bench. I'm not a fan of Olshey, but that is entirely on Stotts who had the resources available to put his team in a better position to win in that circumstance.

#Fail

I'll take this as proof that my dream Powell/Little/Jones/RoCo/Nurk end-game need-a-stop lineup was nothing more than an hallucinogenic fantasy.

Oh, BTW: That lineup can also score.

Are the Blazers trying to win games or stroke egos?

Le Sigh

 

[Tince]

It's incredible that the Celtics have lost so many games this year ... a quirk in the schedule has them playing more teams with more than two all-stars than anyone else in the NBA.

I like what you attempted there.

If you prefer one team sample sizes, I have a lot of other stats you would love.

 

[Tince]

well, going by the long-running discussion here, I think it would be interesting to gauge the average defensive ratings of the 4 teams that make it to the conference finals, and among those 4 teams, the rate at which the higher ranked defense won the series. Just glancing at the last 20 years of the NBA finals, my sense is that the higher ranked defense won about 60-70% of the time, but that might be wrong. I suppose you could expand that to the teams that advance past the first round

in that same vein, it might be interesting to see if rating/point differentials actually translate to higher winning percentages in the playoffs

All good stuff. All of that should be easy to pull.

My next question regarding the data we find with the conference final teams defensive rating. If it's average, good, or great, what do we attribute that to? Players? Length? Scheme?

 

[BBert]

In the first half when Little played ~4 minutes, he didn't touch the ball a single time on offense. His only touches came off of rebounds and then he would go reluctantly go to the corner. He hasn't has a stretch of play over 4 minutes in the last two games yet is one of the better defenders who actually WANTS to take on the toughest repsonsibility, and one of the higher efficiency scorers.

Un-freaking-believable.

I saw a couple of times NAS had an opening to make a play on offense, but instead thought about it and realized he had to give the ball up so Melo could go ISO 20 feet from the basket. Maddening.

 

[Natebishop3]

is Portland going to be able to hold off Dallas for 6th seed?

View attachment 38065
View attachment 38066

only a 1 game lead for Portland in loss column...but that's effectively 2 games because Blazers own the tiebreaker

Nope. I think we maybe win 7 more games the rest of the way. We're going to finish right around .500.