Can the Warriors' Steph Curry break the box-and-one?
When the Warriors play badly, the punditry conversation usually turns to Steph Curry. There are arguments over his current status and past legacy. The content ranges from dryly observational, to legitimately provocative and all the way to completely contrived provocation. It can be a distraction from some more basic questions about the current predicament the Warriors find themselves in, given their roster and how it’s performing.
The real trouble might have started not this season, nor the last one. Much of it might stem from the 2019 NBA Finals, when Raptors coach Nick Nurse demonstrated success with a “gimmick defense” that ignored other Warriors’ players in favor of guarding Curry with a box-and-one. That defense was sprung in the minutes Klay Thompson missed, offering a dismal preview of what was to come should Thompson ever get injured, which, unfortunately, he did (twice).
Now, with the Warriors so deprived of shooters and playmakers, we are seeing variations of that defense. As the Trail Blazers demonstrated on Friday night, it can almost look like a modified zone, with defenders sagging hard off shooters who’ve yet to prove it. Here, I have quite a few such clips, all ending in a Kelly Oubre Jr. miss. In the first example, Draymond Green was the ignored man as Curry drew a near triple-team. The swing pass ended in the aforementioned result.
Curry missed a few good opportunities to get going in the first half. By the second half, the Blazers’ modified zone was making life more difficult. With their defensive approach, the Blazers managed to crowd Curry behind the arc
and pack the paint. Of course, this is only possible if you completely ignore the Warriors’ other perimeter threats.
It’s all such a dare.
It gets even more compressed for Curry when Kevon Looney is in. Right now, Looney is far better than James Wiseman at knowing where to go, but defenses respect his movement far less. See how packed the paint is before, again, another Oubre miss.
Even in semi-transition, it was hard for Curry to get loose. Also, look at the hot potato that follows Curry passing it out of trouble. Understandably, Oubre does not seem especially eager to shoot.
I mean, this is ridiculous.
We can ask questions about how well Curry should be able to perform in these conditions and whether any true “superstar” makes the playoffs regardless of cast. That’s almost beside the point, I think. In my opinion, the more pertinent question for the Warriors is the following: How sustainable is this? Even if Curry turns the corner and starts hitting more of those off-the-dribble 3-pointers he’s known for, this does not appear to be a recipe for success. It’s not advisable for your main offensive threat to absorb almost the entirety of the defense’s focus, night after night. It’s asking for an insane amount of wear and tear, in service of a season that can’t go far. Not only is this not a plan for the postseason, but it’s not a plan for preservation either.
Remember, Curry is 32 and on the skinnier, smaller side for an NBA player. If the Warriors do make the playoff fringe, and Curry stays healthy enough, he’s probably running on fumes by then.
In fairness to the Warriors, they did not anticipate another season-ending Klay Thompson injury. In a fair critique of the Warriors, they did not build a roster that addressed weaknesses that Nick Nurse exposed. While Oubre almost certainly won’t continue to shoot 4 percent from long range, the supporting offense isn’t likely to force defenses out of their intense surrounding of Curry. In the short term, the Warriors are about as constrained as Curry himself. They lack assets to improve their lot, though the disabled player exception could come in handy. It won’t be easy, but they probably need to make a move. Because right now, one of the game’s most creative, paradigm-shifting players is stuck in a box.
Ethan Strauss.
OFFICIAL WARRIORS' GAME NOTES 
