Game Thread GAME# 61: BLAZERS @ HAWKS - FEBRUARY 29, 2020 - SATURDAY, 4:30, NBCSNW

[TBpup]

Memphis had lost 4 in a row, and yet with just 1 win, they are back to 4 up in the loss column.

Just end the frustration now and pull the plug. All that is happening now is the running up of alcohol (medical) bills.

 

[PDXFonz]

Memphis had lost 4 in a row, and yet with just 1 win, they are back to 4 up in the loss column.

Just end the frustration now and pull the plug. All that is happening now is the running up of alcohol (medical) bills.

Pulling the plug is for Bath Takers!!!

#ShowerCrew

 

[Darkwebs]

Blazers finished the game with 14 assists.
Trae Young had 15 assists.

 

[AldoTrapani]

Man I can’t wait for the lottery

 

[wizenheimer]

You're correct, my math was wrong. Improving 3.5 spots is the correct number.

What metric would you suggest is a good measure of determining if Portland's defense improves more/less than other NBA teams throughout the season? I don't think what I pulled is the best, but I don't have anything better.

Even if I omit the 2016-2017 (which would not be right in my opinion), you're looking at a near 0 change on average over the other 3 seasons. That would tell me that Portland improves at a normal rate or if they're not improving on defense, the other NBA teams don't improve either.

I'm not sure there is a good metric because there are simply too many variables that would alter team equations. For instance, we're talking about the 2016-17 season, seeing the big jump in defensive rating, and attributing it to Nurkic; but he missed 7 of the 25 games after the all-star break. Let me suggest just as an important factor as the addition of Nurkic: because of an injury, Aminu missed 21 games before the all-star break, but played in every game after the break. I think Aminu always had an underrated impact on the defense.

so yeah, injuries can really skew defensive numbers over the course of a season

another factor, obviously, is strength of schedule and home/road splits. Portland had the 2nd or 3rd most difficult SOS pre-allstar break this year. And the 4h easiest after the all-star break. it's a lot easier to defend bad teams (although you wouldn't believe that after watching the game tonight)

 

[Cugel]

Blazers finished the game with 14 assists.
Trae Young had 15 assists.

that stat says it all. stoffense is doomed to fail.

 

[Tince]

I'm not sure there is a good metric because there are simply too many variables that would alter team equations. For instance, we're talking about the 2016-17 season, seeing the big jump in defensive rating, and attributing it to Nurkic; but he missed 7 of the 25 games after the all-star break. Let me suggest just as an important factor as the addition of Nurkic: because of an injury, Aminu missed 21 games before the all-star break, but played in every game after the break. I think Aminu always had an underrated impact on the defense.

so yeah, injuries can really skew defensive numbers over the course of a season

another factor, obviously, is strength of schedule and home/road splits. Portland had the 2nd or 3rd most difficult SOS pre-allstar break this year. And the 4h easiest after the all-star break. it's a lot easier to defend bad teams (although you wouldn't believe that after watching the game tonight)

I agree with all the variables you listed above.

I'm just looking for data that can confirm/disprove the claim that Stotts' teams don't improve on defense throughout the season. Defensive rating change throughout the season, over a large enough sample size should reduce the impact of injuries, trades, schedule, etc. as all those things should even out.

 

[jlprk]

After every game, I look at the last page of the game thread, and there is Tince gamely defending against any changes in the team. Before clicking on the thread I thought, a couple of management's designated cleanup batters will be there in the last pages. And the usual suspects were there.

 

[BonesJones]

I just did some pre/post all star team defensive rating comparisons.

2018-2019: Down 2 spots
2017-2018: Up 7 spots (#3 in the NBA in 2nd half)
2016-2017: Up 13 spots
2015-2016: Down 4 spots

Last four seasons, on average, Portland improved nearly 5 (edit: 3.5) spots on defense after the all star break.

@BonesJones I don't think this is a black/white metric to measure defensive improvement in comparison to the rest of the league, but it was the easiest thing for me to pull. Can you think of any metric than can easily be pulled to measure if Portland doesn't "improve" on defense as much as other teams throughout the season?

Nurkic's trade is responsible for 2017.
We had an easier schedule to finish the seawon in 2018.

Theres variance too.

Thats not the way to gauge it.

 

[BonesJones]

I agree with all the variables you listed above.

I'm just looking for data that can confirm/disprove the claim that Stotts' teams don't improve on defense throughout the season. Defensive rating change throughout the season, over a large enough sample size should reduce the impact of injuries, trades, schedule, etc. as all those things should even out.

Yeah, those stats cant prove anything because of the the number of variables at play. If we bring in defensive minded players, we'll get better defensively without it being due to Stotts. If we have an easier schedule past the ASB, naturally our defensive numbers will improve without us actually improving our defense.

 

[BonesJones]

You're correct, my math was wrong. Improving 3.5 spots is the correct number.

What metric would you suggest is a good measure of determining if Portland's defense improves more/less than other NBA teams throughout the season? I don't think what I pulled is the best, but I don't have anything better.

Even if I omit the 2016-2017 (which would not be right in my opinion), you're looking at a near 0 change on average over the other 3 seasons. That would tell me that Portland improves at a normal rate or if they're not improving on defense, the other NBA teams don't improve either.

The eye test. People always try to find a stat for everything in order to explain whats hapoening but a lot of stats have noise.

 

[BonesJones]

Look I understand what you are saying but it doesn’t work one way without it working the other. If 16-17 was all Nurk then obviously 19-20 is all Nurk right?
Players make a difference in all cases. Not just the ones you want them to.

No, you don't understand. We're not judging the overall effectiveness of the defense, we're discussing the overall improvement of individual players defensively. So acquiring Nurk improved our defense without any of our individual players improving due to the coaching staff.

This year, I'm making the argument that none of the players that are playing havent improved defensively due to our coaching (the only one who's improved said he did so because he watched a ton of defensive film on his own). It doesn't matter if we have Nurkic or not since it's not a discussion based on overall effectiveness of the defense, and is instead based on individual improvement.

 

[Paine Tablet]

Is Stotts of the belief that players such as Nassir Little in particular do not improve as efficiently with playing time as without? Of course I know the answer and it's why I can't watch.

 

[Tince]

The eye test. People always try to find a stat for everything in order to explain whats hapoening but a lot of stats have noise.

The eye test is tough because we all see things through a different lens.

 

[Tince]

Yeah, those stats cant prove anything because of the the number of variables at play. If we bring in defensive minded players, we'll get better defensively without it being due to Stotts. If we have an easier schedule past the ASB, naturally our defensive numbers will improve without us actually improving our defense.

Don't you think over a large enough sample size that injuries, schedule strength, and roster make-up should average out and therefore make the average change in defensive rating from the 1st half of the season and the 2nd half a telling measure? Perfect no, but better than saying it's what I (or you) see?

 

[tester551]

This year, I'm making the argument that none of the players that are playing havent improved defensively due to our coaching (the only one who's improved said he did so because he watched a ton of defensive film on his own). It doesn't matter if we have Nurkic or not since it's not a discussion based on overall effectiveness of the defense, and is instead based on individual improvement.

Who are you referring to here? I'm assuming its Trent...
Where was that quote. I missed it

 

[Tince]

Who are you referring to here? I'm assuming its Trent...
Where was that quote. I missed it

He was referring to Trent.

The logic that Trent gets credit for his improved defense because he said he watched film on his own isn't very strong though. I think it's safe to assume a lot of players watch film on their own and we have no clue who watches more film or the validity of their claims.

 

[BonesJones]

The eye test is tough because we all see things through a different lens.

Do you really think the team or players have improved defensively as the season has gone along? I think Melo was better when he first played here. Same with Ariza. I think we've regressed.

 

[BonesJones]

He was referring to Trent.

The logic that Trent gets credit for his improved defense because he said he watched film on his own isn't very strong though. I think it's safe to assume a lot of players watch film on their own and we have no clue who watches more film or the validity of their claims.

What do you mean it isn't strong? It's exactly what he said. So what if others do? The point is that the only player who's improved noticeably on the defensive end said his improvement came through his own means, not because of help from the coaching staff.

 

[Tince]

What do you mean it isn't strong? It's exactly what he said. So what if others do? The point is that the only player who's improved noticeably on the defensive end said his improvement came through his own means, not because of help from the coaching staff.

Sorry, I'm not questioning that Trent said it, I'm sure he did. My point is that because someone says they did something:

1) Doesn't mean they did it
2) Doesn't mean they do it more than others
3) Doesn't mean what they did was the main contribution them improving

Self-assessments are often some of the most inaccurate.

 

[BonesJones]

Sorry, I'm not questioning that Trent said it, I'm sure he did. My point is that because someone says they did something:

1) Doesn't mean they did it
2) Doesn't mean they do it more than others
3) Doesn't mean what they did was the main contribution them improving

Self-assessments are often some of the most inaccurate.

Who cares, he's the outlier. That's the problem.

 

[Tince]

Do you really think the team or players have improved defensively as the season has gone along? I think Melo was better when he first played here. Same with Ariza. I think we've regressed.

The assessment that I questioned was when someone (can't remember who) said "Stotts teams never improve defensively throughout the season." or something along those lines. I took that to mean over the course of his career in Portland and I can't say in comparison to other teams that I can say this is a true statement.

I think this current team sucks on defense... And offense.

 

[Tince]

Who cares, he's the outlier. That's the problem.

Sorry, I thought you were saying that because Trent watched film on his own that's why he got better on defense. I think I took what you said wrong.

I don't watch enough teams/players at a micro-level anymore to judge what the average improvement during the course of a season should be and compare it to Portland. Our defense stinks, we agree on that for sure.

 

[BonesJones]

Sorry, I thought you were saying that because Trent watched film on his own that's why he got better on defense. I think I took what you said wrong.

I don't watch enough teams/players at a micro-level anymore to judge what the average improvement during the course of a season should be and compare it to Portland. Our defense stinks, we agree on that for sure.

Don't you find it ironic that the one player that has come out and said that he watched film on his own is the only one who has improved this year?
Don't you find it ironic that the Blazers media team makes a big deal out of any defensive-minded practice the Blazers have?
Don't you find it ironic that the Blazers haven't fixed a number of defensive mental mistakes that they've been making all season?
Don't you find it ironic how Stotts usually simply attributes "shot-making" to winning/losing games in his postgame press conferences?
Don't you find it ironic how no players credit a member of the coaching staff with defensive improvement when players on other teams across the league do?
Don't you find it ironic that we run one defensive scheme 99% of the time other than a lazy 2-3 zone?
Don't you find it ironic that most players won't get benched no matter how poorly they're playing defense?

Seems like there's a lot there for them to all be coincidences... I think Stotts doesn't value defense enough.

 

[kjironman1]

This year, I'm making the argument that none of the players that are playing havent improved defensively due to our coaching (the only one who's improved said he did so because he watched a ton of defensive film on his own). It doesn't matter if we have Nurkic or not since it's not a discussion based on overall effectiveness of the defense, and is instead based on individual improvement.

I do understand what you are trying to say. I happen to disagree.
First 1M has absolutely improved on defense. To say he didn't is flat out wrong. Next Trent Improved on defense. Saying the only reason is because he looked at film again is flat out wrong. Skal Absolutely improved on defense. Saying he didn't is flat out wrong again. Little also has started to come around saying he is not better than the beginning of the season is again wrong. Biggie over the last two weeks has absolutely improved on both sides of the court. Gabriel actually is being effective at times without fouling though not much yet? Lets see where he is in a month and if they keep him where he is after a training camp and summer league? Over the last few season various players improved. Pat Con, Jake Layman and Seth Curry to name a few.

Here is where i also disagree. Did you want to see Melo improve? Really? You already know Lillard did indeed improve. CJ this year has been on again off again but there is no question his blocks and steals are up. I think his overall defensive rating is down but that might be because of the players he has on the court with him? Ariza is Ariza he is who he is.
Then you want to go all in on who is playing. If in 17' the only reason they got better was because of Nurkic????

So acquiring Nurk improved our defense without any of our individual players improving due to the coaching staff.

I guess the only person that improved the defense over the years was Olshey? Or the schedule makers?

We're not judging the overall effectiveness of the defense, we're discussing the overall improvement of individual players defensively.

The original question was about the Blazers overall effectiveness throughout a season getting better or worse but you feel it's not improvement based on players. Even worse you doubled down on it with this. So this draws me to believe that you do indeed feel this has something to do with the team as a whole?

Nurkic's trade is responsible for 2017.
We had an easier schedule to finish the seawon in 2018.

Theres variance too.

Thats not the way to gauge it.

Now you want to say we are talking about something else?

He was referring to Trent.

The logic that Trent gets credit for his improved defense because he said he watched film on his own isn't very strong though. I think it's safe to assume a lot of players watch film on their own and we have no clue who watches more film or the validity of their claims.

There is also another that has taken this road. Collins has here is a story from before the season about working on film. He has since delved even more into it.
https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/...-has-long-been-preparing-for-this-moment.html
It seems Nurkic as well as Hood are on the film train also. Correct me if i'm wrong but the Blazers employ a coach named Jim Moran he was a video coordinator. And then that guy who is always holding the Ipad with the videos running. That is Jannero Pargo.
Then of course there is Johnathan Yim. He is about as good a video coordinator as there is out there. The only way these players have an opportunity to study film is because of the coaching staff. To say any player did this all on his own again speaks volumes about the poster.

 

[HailBlazers]

@kjironman1 i like your retort there about the assistant coaches but is it really necessary to add the low key personal attack at the end?

@Tince has been acknowledged for his ability to disagree respectfully, everyone here could take a page out of his book.

 

[kjironman1]

@kjironman1 i like your retort there about the assistant coaches but is it really necessary to add the low key personal attack at the end?

@Tince has been acknowledged for his ability to disagree respectfully, everyone here could take a page out of his book.

In this case i believe you are correct. That could be construed as a personal attack. I didn't feel it was. Saying these things about the entire Coaching staff speaks volumes.

 

[kjironman1]

@Tince has been acknowledged for his ability to disagree respectfully, everyone here could take a page out of his book.

Did you happen to feel the beginning of his response to me was "respectful"? Because from my response i obviously do "Understand".
I don't play victim. So lets not go there. I don't care how he responds to me. But if he wants to post to me directly like that then he is going to get it back. Sorry.

 

[SIeepwalker]

I guess it's Nas turn to be in Stotts dog house... sigh

 

[kjironman1]

I guess it's Nas turn to be in Stotts dog house... sigh

He's gonna get more run now. Season is pretty much over. It'll be good for him.