Boob-No-More
Why you no hire big man coach?
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I don't think we'll be hurt all that much by the Pacers' attack on O since their best players are wings and that's where our D is the strongest. The problem will be their ridiculous defense that will not only take away threes, but also any inside drives. If we score over a 100, we should win, but if it's in the 80s or even 90s, we're screwed. They play a really boring/methodical game that is ugly as hell to watch.
I posted these tidbits in another thread, but they seem more appropriate here:
Hoping for a win, but against Indiana's defense, it will be tough. They are a defensive juggernaut - and it's not just Hibbert shutting down the paint. Their Defensive EFF of 85.6 is ridiculous. There are only two other teams in the league with a Defensive EFF below 100. They are the Spurs (Defensive EFF = 97.3) and the Heat (Defensive EFF = 99.4). They also have a ridiculous Opp FG% of .390. Second best is Houston at .422. They don't just lead the league in these two key defensive stats they lead by ridiculously large margins over some very good defensive teams (Spurs, Heat and Rockets).
Our biggest advantage is 3-point shooting. We are 3rd in the league with 3FG% = .414. The Pacers are 14th in the league with 3FG% = .364. On the defensive end, the Blazers are currently 2nd at defensing the 3 (Opp 3FG% = .323), but the Pacers aren't far behind (4th in Opp 3FG% = .332). So, will we be able to get open 3-pointers against Indiana's defense? And, if we do, will our guys be able to knock them down.
The good news is Indiana doesn't defend the 3 on the road (Opp 3FG% = .353, 10th in the league) as well as they do at home (Opp 3FG% = .314, 2nd in the league).
With Hibbert shutting down the paint, we need Batum and Matthews to REALLY step up tonight. Unfortunately, and maybe it's just the small sample size, but both players are shooting the 3 considerably worse at home than on the road.
Nicolas Batum:
Home: 3FG% = .351
Away: 3FG% = .429
Wesley Matthews:
Home: 3FG% = .439
Away: 3FG% - .561
The good news is Damian Lillard shoots the 3 better at home:
Damian Lillard:
Home: 3FG% = .438
Away: 3FG% - .375
But, we can't just rely on Damian and LaMarcus against a tough team like Indiana, we need other people (Nic and Wes) to step up. The good news is our bench shoots the 3 much better at home:
Mo Williams:
Home: 3FG% = .429
Away: 3FG% - .348
Dorell Wright:
Home: 3FG% = .421
Away: 3FG% - .321
Dorell Wright may be a real wildcard here. Last season, in 4 games against Indiana, he averaged 13.5 ppg and shot .444 from 3-point range against them. I wonder if Stotts will look to go with the big line-up for stretches tonight with Batum at the 2 and Wright at the 3.
All-in-all, as a team, the Blazers shoot the 3 slightly worse at home (.405, 8th in the league) than on the road (.420, 4th in the league). Let's hope the home cooking is working and the shots are falling tonight.
Go Blazers!!!
BTW, I'm REALLY excited about tonight's game. I grew up and played high school and college ball in Indiana - I even watched the movie Hoosiers last night on cable. I've now lived half my life in Indiana and half in Oregon. I'm happy for all my friends and family back home that the Pacers are doing well, but of course I'm absolutely ecstatic about my Blazers and their 14-3 start. I'm hoping for a good, hard fought game with the Blazers winning on a last second shot. I really hope it's a close game and it goes down to the final seconds. An occasional blowout can be fun, but it's the close games against the tough, playoff tested teams that build confidence and character.
Our starters vs. their starters:
It's interesting that in all the key advanced team stats, Indiana is currently dominating the league. As I posted above, their team defense isn't just the best in the league, it's the best by a ridiculous margin over San Antonio, Miami and Houston.
As a team, their Deff (Efficiency differential = Offensive eff - Defensive eff) of 27.8 leads the league. San Antonio at 23.5 and Miami at 22.2 are the only other teams with Deff > 20 (the Blazers are 6th in the league at Deff = 11.4). So, it appears the Pacers have a rather substantial advantage in Deff. However, if you just look at the starters, the gap narrows considerably.
Indiana has the best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 27.5, but the Blazers have the second best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 22.6.
And if you look at our starters at home Deff vs. Indiana's starters on road Deff, it's practically a tie:
Portland Home Deff = 17.3
Indiana Road Deff = 17.8
I know every game is a unique event, but I hope it ends up being close and we can pull it out at the end.
BNM