Is The Stock Market About To Crash?
‘Very, very concerning’ echoes of the 90s dot-com bubble are being heard loud and clear by nervous market experts.
A 12-year-old bull market; SPAC mania; IPOs that more than double on the first trading day; an army of amateur traders and GameStop mania. It certainly feels like irrational exuberance–and it triggers alarms for those who remember the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. “The parallels we have today are historically very, very concerning,” notes Jim Stack, president of Whitefish, Montana’s InvesTech Research and Stack Financial Management. “The current froth is the icing on the cake, and when you look through it, you see a lot of other underlying issues.”
Despite a steep 30% market correction last year, the longest bull market on record has helped the S&P 500 surge nearly 300% over the past ten years–roughly in line with the growth in the ten years preceding the dot-com crash in 2000, after which stocks plunged 40% over two years. Forbes analyzed 11 key market metrics that flashed warning signs just before the stock market crashed in March 2000. Bearish signals outweigh bullish ones, but contrarian investors should take comfort in the old adage that stock markets tend to climb a “Wall of Worry.”
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Interesting article, read the rest here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonath...-stock-market-about-to-crash/?sh=2e62d4c171de
SPACs, IPOs and pump mania is a little concerning, but overall I am not worried. More money has been lost trying to anticipate crashes than has been lost during crashes. If we crash next week I will buy more twice as fast, if we dont I will keep on with my plan of putting x amount of dollars into the market every month and when the market dips I put extra in. I started my career just before the dot com crash and lost 60% of everything in 2008. Shit happens, but if you buy good companies and ride out the bad times then it pays off almost every time. Time is an asset as much as money, and in almost every instance I made my money back plus some by hanging on, I cost myself money in the long run when I panic sold.
My theory on why now is different is that the dot com was created because the internet was new, people were excited about it and enamored with its possibilites, so a bunch of shit companies with a lot of promise but no real product or solid business model ran up the prices with promises of the future. Today things are different because our technology and infrastructure is finally catching up to our imagination. Things are being made that were only dreams or not even dreams back in 2000. AI, robotics, drone, delieveies, genetics, data analysis, target advertising, 3d printing, 5g, VR, battery tech, green energy and more are all exploding in ability and development on a level we have never seen before. Its currently changing and its going to change everything about our lives, this is the next industrial revolution and it is happening right now. This is an exciting time in history and a golden opportunity for investors. Today isnt 2008 because that happened based of criminal financial activity, but we did learn from 2008 and what we learned was to throw money at financial problems as fast as possible. Thats what happened after the covid crash and it worked, but it also created more money which is now coming back to the market and increasing the value of everything. And I mean everything, house values are though the roof, collectibles are up big, bitcoin, gold, and more. The only thing that is down is the dollar. There is also another wild card factor emerging and that is the Robinhood investor. All this meme stonk stuff is getting new people, with new money involved. Lots will get burned, lots will disengage, but many will stay.
If your new to investing you live by a few rules. Never invest money you might need for something else, your money needs to be able to sit as long as it takes to make its profit which could mean years. Dont enter the market all at once, ease in so you dont get caught at a top. Buy and hold good companies all my best returns have been long term holds. Be honest with yourself, is your purchase a gamble or an investment. Chasing meme stocks is fun, but boring slow returns is also fun because making a little bit of money is always more fun than losing any.
