Geoffrey C. Arnold's poorly written article...

[tlongII]

http://www.oregonlive.com/nba/index.ssf/2009/04/blazers_remain_in_mix_for_high.html

Even if the Blazers win their final two games (against Oklahoma City and Denver at home), they will need Denver, Houston and San Antonio to each lose their final two games to capture the second seed.

The Blazers' hopes rest on Denver losing at home Monday night against lowly Sacramento. Considering the way Denver is playing (13-2 in last 15 games, 32-8 record at home and defeating the Kings by 19 and 33 points), an upset by the Kings seems unlikely. But the Kings did defeat the Nuggets 114-106 in Sacramento on March 8.

If the Nuggets win Monday night, the race for second is over for the Blazers. Then the Blazers will turn their collective eyes to the third seed. Things get more complicated because they're in a tight race with Houston and San Antonio. If those teams finish in a three-way tie, the Blazers will fall to the fifth seed.

If the Blazers and Houston finish with identical records, the Rockets win the tiebreaker based on winning the season series against Portland. So the Blazers will be rooting for New Orleans to win at Houston Monday night and for the Rockets to lose at Dallas in their regular-season finale Wednesday.

Anyone else notice something wrong with these statements?

 

[Nikolokolus]

http://www.oregonlive.com/nba/index.ssf/2009/04/blazers_remain_in_mix_for_high.html
Anyone else notice something wrong with these statements?

The only part I see that he got wrong was saying that San Antonio needs to lose two games, since we have the tie breaker with them, but aside from that why wouldn't we be rooting for the Rockets to lose to New Orleans and then Dallas?

 

[crandc]

Speaking of which, could someone kindly explain the 3-way tie issue?

I understand that if the Blazers and Rockets are tied, the Rockets get the edge due to winning the season series. And if the Blazers and Spurs are tied, the Blazers get the edge for the same reason. But a 3 way tie between Houston, San Antonio, and Portland puts Houston 3, San Antonio 4 and Portland 5 and I can't quite figure this out. I can see Houston as division winner would get 3 but how does the fact of Houston and San Antonio also being tied invalidate the Portland/SA tie breaker? So far I have not seen a lucid explanation of a 3 way tie breaker (which is beginning to sound a bit pornographic, but maybe that's just a Monday thing).

 

[Nikolokolus]

Speaking of which, could someone kindly explain the 3-way tie issue?

I understand that if the Blazers and Rockets are tied, the Rockets get the edge due to winning the season series. And if the Blazers and Spurs are tied, the Blazers get the edge for the same reason. But a 3 way tie between Houston, San Antonio, and Portland puts Houston 3, San Antonio 4 and Portland 5 and I can't quite figure this out. I can see Houston as division winner would get 3 but how does the fact of Houston and San Antonio also being tied invalidate the Portland/SA tie breaker? So far I have not seen a lucid explanation of a 3 way tie breaker (which is beginning to sound a bit pornographic, but maybe that's just a Monday thing).

It all comes down to who owns the tiebreaker between San Antonio and Houston. As I understand it, if both teams win out, San Antonio holds an edge over Houston and would win their division which automatically guarantees them at the least a 4 seed (and in this case they'd be above Houston, so they'd have the 3 seed -- assuming Denver locks up the NW Division). With the division winner issue in the SW Division resolved it moves to the next tie breaker which Houston holds over us; they'd get the 4 seed and we get the 5th.

Edit:
Correction I actually believe Houston holds the slightest edge over San Antonio if both should win out and it comes down to each team's record against the other playoff bound teams (as it takes several tie breakers to get to one that separates the two). Houston has a better record against the elite than San Antonio. So basically we hold our destiny in our own hands; if we win out the worst we do is 4th.

 

[tlongII]

The only part I see that he got wrong was saying that San Antonio needs to lose two games, since we have the tie breaker with them, but aside from that why wouldn't we be rooting for the Rockets to lose to New Orleans and then Dallas?

If we win out we only need Denver to lose 2 games. San Antonio and Houston only need to lose one game for us to be ahead of them.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If we win out we only need Denver to lose 2 games. San Antonio and Houston only need to lose one game for us to be ahead of them.

That might be a pretty big 'if.' OKC isn't going to be any cake walk tonight and depending on whether or not Denver clinches tonight they could be fielding a full roster on Wednesday.

 

[tlongII]

That might be a pretty big 'if.' OKC isn't going to be any cake walk tonight and depending on whether or not Denver clinches tonight they could be fielding a full roster on Wednesday.

Maybe, but Arnold is using that "if" in his article. He says "even if" the Blazers win both games they need all the other teams to lose both of their's. That is clearly false.

 

[Sedatedfork]

If we win out we only need Denver to lose 2 games. San Antonio and Houston only need to lose one game for us to be ahead of them.

Actually we would only need Denver to lose to Sacramento if we win out (since that assumes we will beat Denver in the final game of the season).

 

[tlongII]

Actually we would only need Denver to lose to Sacramento if we win out (since that assumes we will beat Denver in the final game of the season).

True dat. Unlikely as it may be.

 

[crandc]

I was wondering because, at least in the local newspaper, whenever the 3 teams were tied they listed in the order Houston/San Antonio/Portland and I thought it should be Houston/Portland/San Antonio.

Well, being in Oakland, I can say, Just Win, Baby.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I was wondering because, at least in the local newspaper, whenever the 3 teams were tied they listed in the order Houston/San Antonio/Portland and I thought it should be Houston/Portland/San Antonio.

Well, being in Oakland, I can say, Just Win, Baby.

Actually it shows Spurs/Houston/Portland at NBA.com and ESPN.com

San Antonio leads due to a technicality but that's only because Houston hasn't played as many division games as the Spurs; both have the same amount of division losses at 6, if both were to win out they'll be tied in that respect and would settle the division based on their records against conference playoff teams, where Houston holds the lead.