giving KP some credit

[BrianFromWA]

Gotcha.

 

[Cake]

I've never had a problem with KP's ability to identify and draft talent, my only complaint is that he doesn't appear to know how to balance a roster. Great work by Jeff and Dante ... and this team still will have the same chemistry issues they had at the start of training camp until he thins the herd.

How so?

In my mind, if healthy, we have:

3 point guards: Miller, Blake, Mills
1 combo guard: Bayless
2 shooting guards: Roy, Fernandez
3 small forwards: Webster, Outlaw, Batum
1 combo forward: Cunningham
2 power forwards: Aldridge, Howard
1 forward/center: Pendergraph
2 centers: Oden, Przybilla

How much more balanced can you get? If we didn't have a lot of injuries, we'd be arguably the most balanced team in the league.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Bear with me a moment, I'm going to try something. Here's the Total PER for the top 6 players in each Championship team going back 8 years.

2009 Lakers: 113.7
2008 Celtics: 111.1
2007 Spurs: 119.4
2006 Heat: 114.5
2005 Spurs: 114
2004 Pistons: 104.2
2003 Spurs: 107.9
2002 Lakers: 111.5

Here's last year's Blazers: 107.2

Rudy, Joel, and Travis were the bottom three of the top 6, all hovering around 15. To go from shouting distance to really contending, we need our starting SF to give us 17 PER, our starting PG to give us 16 PER, and our fist guy off the bench to give us 16 PER.

The problem with this year is that we never got to see Batum play with the full starting lineup. Next year should be interesting: Roy and LMA are down in PER, but Oden and Bayless more than made up for it in their gains this year, giving us a net positive. If Batum can come in and be 16 PER player, we're suddenly in the 112 PER range.

PER does nothing to capture defense however.

 

[Nikolokolus]

How so?

In my mind, if healthy, we have:

3 point guards: Miller, Blake, Mills
1 combo guard: Bayless
2 shooting guards: Roy, Fernandez
3 small forwards: Webster, Outlaw, Batum
1 combo forward: Cunningham
2 power forwards: Aldridge, Howard
1 forward/center: Pendergraph
2 centers: Oden, Przybilla

How much more balanced can you get? If we didn't have a lot of injuries, we'd be arguably the most balanced team in the league.

How many of those guards are good perimeter defenders? How many of those forwards or centers are low post threats? It's not just about positions, it's also about roles and strengths.

 

[the ob]

That is two posts now that I have read from you, that makes me think you are a chi-mo[/QUOTE]

bendavis503,

1) you heckled another poster about this, not me. if you are going to talk smack, at least keep it straight
2) the point of my heckle was that you spend time with third graders. Do I really have to spell that out to you?
3) I am here to talk blazers and a little ducks and not to get into a war of words with people.
4) this is the second post of mine where you decided to talk smack when unprovoked. maybe you have something better to do?
5) I have no desire to continue this with you. you are not very good at it and it is boring.

can we please get back to discussing the blazers?

p.s. please do not hack my computer.....

 

[BlazerCaravan]

PER does nothing to capture defense however.

I thought you wanted to talk PER since you were mentioning LMA's PER. That said, yeah, defense is under-appreciated in the calculation; it explains why Detroit had the lowest PER of any of the last 8 champions. That's good though, since we're getting better defensively this year over last.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I thought you wanted to talk PER since you were mentioning LMA's PER. That said, yeah, defense is under-appreciated in the calculation; it explains why Detroit had the lowest PER of any of the last 8 champions. That's good though, since we're getting better defensively this year over last.

I mentioned PER as a sort of catch-all to describe the kind of offensive output star players usually need to provide in order to dominate a game or a playoff series at that end of the court (The Piston's being a notable exception in the past twenty years). Almost all championship teams usually count on having at least two "star" players with a PER north of 20-21; efficient and/or dominant production on the offensive end of the floor -- that is to say at least two players worthy of and capable of beating a double team.

If LaMarcus were a dominant defender I think you could make an argument that you don't need him to be a 'super star' player or post a guady PER, but he's playing some of the most passive and porous post defense I think I've ever seen from him in his career; that's not a good sign for a guy who just inked an 11 million dollars five year extension. Hopefully he picks it up in the second half of the season like he usually does, but at this point I think it's becoming increasingly likely that he's a lot closer to his ceiling than not.

As for team defense, you're right the team has gotten marginally better on this end of the court, but I think there are a few caveats to this improvement. We played quite a few poor offensive teams to start the year and our centers were erasing a lot of mistakes and breakdowns on the perimeter, which consequently lead to another problem: early foul trouble for our bigs. Overall, even when fully healthy, this is not what I would consider a top tier defensive team, and is unlikely to become one unless some of the young guys like Batum and Bayless fully live up to their potential (no guarantees), or the roster is bolstered with some established players who have already proven what kind of D they can provide on the perimeter.

Don't get me wrong, KP has done a nice job turning around a really awful team and making them good, but there's a lot of consolidation left to be done, or I don't ever see this current incarnation of the team ever being great.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

He knows how to draft. I'm eating crow after throwing KP under the bus when we didn't draft Blair.

Pendergraph is a beast!

Howard looks like the player he was in Dallas.

But I still think letting RLEC expire for nothing is a mistake. His huge contract with insurance covering most of it was a rare asset.

 

[the ob]

Don't get me wrong, KP has done a nice job turning around a really awful team and making them good, but there's a lot of consolidation left to be done, or I don't ever see this current incarnation of the team ever being great.

I agree with this part. The difficult part is knowing exactly what we will need going into the future. we had our need addressed at center and now that position is a big question mark. we also need a SF badly. I think we might have to be patient at this point until we know what all our needs are.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I agree with this part. The difficult part is knowing exactly what we will need going into the future. we had our need addressed at center and now that position is a big question mark. we also need a SF badly. I think we might have to be patient at this point until we know what all our needs are.

It's really not that difficult. Ask yourself a couple of questions. 1) Who is your core (top three or four most important players), and 2) what are your core players best at and worst at?

For me that's Brandon, LMA and ... Well, Oden I guess when/if healthy (but I don't know that you should count on that anymore) and possibly Nicolas and maybe Bayless moved into that conversation as borderline core pieces of the puzzle, although both are still pretty long on 'potential' and pretty short on 'proven production'. What are the strengths and weakness of that group?

 

[the ob]

I guess that is what I am saying. Right now there are so many players that are question marks. Will oden be plagued by injuries forever? will joel ever be back to full strength? bayless, rudy, batum, and pendergraph all have great potential but will they live up to it on a consistent basis? I guess that is why I would worry about a major consolidation until we know exactly what pieces we still need. We might need a center (starting or backup). we do not know just yet. The one thing that we do know if that we have way to many guards and we could still use a SF. that is the one move I would feel comfortable making right now.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I guess that is what I am saying. Right now there are so many players that are question marks. Will oden be plagued by injuries forever? will joel ever be back to full strength? bayless, rudy, batum, and pendergraph all have great potential but will they live up to it on a consistent basis? I guess that is why I would worry about a major consolidation until we know exactly what pieces we still need. We might need a center (starting or backup). we do not know just yet. The one thing that we do know if that we have way to many guards and we could still use a SF. that is the one move I would feel comfortable making right now.

That is also my concern....too many question marks.

A team might be able to tolerate 1 injury prone player - just as they can tolerate 1 knucklehead in an otherwise stable locker-room - but this team looks like a freaking MASH unit.

If KP is actually building his plans around the notion that Oden, Joel, Rudy, Batum, and Outlaw will all be healthy going forward, then he is walking a tightrope with no net.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Happy New Years all . . . and I'll give KP his props. I like having KP as the GM and think he has done some good and great things.


Some posters think I am some kind of KP hater because I said this is a time for him to step up and deal with a tough situation. Never said it was an easy sitaution or that KP is a terrible GM, even said this is a great time for him to shine, but it must have read like I hate KP.

Don't hate KP, liked him from the day he replaced Nash. Here is to hoping we can use the term pritchslapped (wispering it this time) in 2010.

 

[oldguy]

...

Well, if you believe that teams usually get about 80% of their production from 20% of their roster (ie their stars) then I tend to think that if Roy and Aldridge were still healthy the team might not be dominant, but they'd still be performing at a somewhat high level. If the 20% go down for an extended period it doesn't matter how much depth you have, you're going to struggle.

...

I'm not much of a stats guy, but unless I'm missing something, that doesn't look right.

The team plays an average of 10 players per game. 20% of those players would be two, and I'm assuming the two would be Roy and LA. They play 31% of the minutes.

Adding the 96.5 ppg, 20 apg, 41.5 rpg, 6 stpg and 5 bpg the team averages 169 'production units' (PU's) per game. Between Roy's 23/5/5/1/0 and LA's 16/8/2/1/.5, that's 61.5 PU's. 61.5/169 = 36% of the teams' production. Am I missing something, because that seems a long way from 80%.

Where does that come from?

Go Blazers

 

[oldguy]

I agree it's always good to add more talented players to your roster when you have the opportunity, but there is a tipping point where the law of diminishing returns kicks in. I just think he's carrying too many young or rookie scale guys that are worried about their next contract (as they should be), worried about their minutes and are at their best scoring the ball and not enough defensive minded guys, hustle guys and glue guys.

For instance I would gladly trade Webster and Rudy for Shane Battier even though he has mediocre PER of 11 but he would fill a role better than either and add veteran savvy to this roster without crowding the rotation with yet another mouth to feed.

All of these players added to our roster only make sense if KP is viewing them as trade able assets to be cashed in, so far I'm not sure KP sees it this way.

I wouldn't like that trade at all.

That seems to me to be gaining a little (maybe) in the short term, but hurting the team long term. Battier is on the downside of his career, and wouldn't improve the Blazers for long, if at all. I sure don't see him as the guy that puts the Blazers into the finals this season.

Otoh, I see Rudy as part of a championship caliber three guard rotation, getting enough minutes for him to stay happy. Rudy is young enough to fit the Blazers contender window.

Go Blazers

 

[oldguy]

Count me as one giving KP LOTS of credit. I get a kick out of all the wanna be GM's saying he sucks, or is weak.

KP has said he likes the guys we have, and feels good about going to war with them. They are still winning with that formula. In my book that makes KP right, again.

Go Blazers

 

[Nikolokolus]

I wouldn't like that trade at all.

That seems to me to be gaining a little (maybe) in the short term, but hurting the team long term. Battier is on the downside of his career, and wouldn't improve the Blazers for long, if at all. I sure don't see him as the guy that puts the Blazers into the finals this season.

Otoh, I see Rudy as part of a championship caliber three guard rotation, getting enough minutes for him to stay happy. Rudy is young enough to fit the Blazers contender window.

Go Blazers

I wouldn't worry too much about the trade because I'm pretty sure Daryly Morey would want no part of it.

Battier is about 3X the defender Martell is, and about 10X smarter. Battier might only be able to really provide high level play for another couple of years, but he's exactly the kind of player I want Nicolas to learn from in practice.

As for Rudy, he plays the same position as our best player; you're kidding yourself if you think he's going to be satisfied with A) 20-25 minutes a night and B) taking less money to stay here so he can be second fiddle to Brandon Roy.

 

[jlprk]

This technique works. Earlier in the summer, KP let the two worst PER guys go.

Then Bayless, not Rodriguez, should have gone. And maybe Batum.

24.0 Roy
19.4 Randolph
19.1 Aldridge
18.1 Oden
15.5 Fernandez
15.4 Przybilla
15.1 Outlaw
14.4 Blake
12.9 Batum
12.5 Rodriguez
11.4 Diogu
10.3 Ruffin
10.0 Frye
08.2 Bayless
-8.4 Webster

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html
(go down to Advanced and click on PER column heading)

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm not much of a stats guy, but unless I'm missing something, that doesn't look right.

The team plays an average of 10 players per game. 20% of those players would be two, and I'm assuming the two would be Roy and LA. They play 31% of the minutes.

Adding the 96.5 ppg, 20 apg, 41.5 rpg, 6 stpg and 5 bpg the team averages 169 'production units' (PU's) per game. Between Roy's 23/5/5/1/0 and LA's 16/8/2/1/.5, that's 61.5 PU's. 61.5/169 = 36% of the teams' production. Am I missing something, because that seems a long way from 80%.

Where does that come from?

Go Blazers

the 80-20 rule is mostly a reference to the Pareto Principle and while it doesn't perfectly translate to basketball, the fact remains that teams usually need 2 or 3 stars to provide the bulk of their scoring, rebounding and other measurable statistical output. 2 stars out of 9 player rotation is 22% and while they probably won't score 80% of their team's points, they probably should be producing about 50% of them and assisting or otherwise creating opportunities with steals, offensive rebounds etc. to comprise another 30% of a team's scoring output.

You can quibble over the accuracy of the stats and how it all divides out, but it doesn't change the general "rule"

 

[andalusian]

Then Bayless, not Rodriguez, should have gone. And maybe Batum.

I am pretty sure that he did it only for people that had a consistent playing time to get into the rhythm. It is very hard to make any decision about people that played as little as JB did last year.

By the end of the year they had 3 years of data and 2600 minutes of play for Sergio, 2 years of Data in Portland and 2000 minutes of play for Frye, but only 600 minutes of play over one year for JB.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Then Bayless, not Rodriguez, should have gone. And maybe Batum.

Sorry, I wasn't clear; I meant among the players who had a chance to play in 07-08 and 08-09. Bayless likely got a pass by virtue of being a rookie and the 11th player in the rotation. Frye and Sergio both played themselves clean out of a job in Portland.

It's very kind of you to list all the PERs and direct me to the web page, but really you were just being condescending.

 

[jlprk]

I didn't mean to be condescending. I come from the ESPN board, where I saved experienced readers some confusing search time by pointing them directly to what I was talking about.

Anyway, the Intel method is the slow boat to China. If I did my job by deleting the 2 most useless things every year, it would take a century to turn the company (team) around. (And the boss would still expect me to point him directly to what I'm talking about.)

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I didn't mean to be condescending. I come from the ESPN board, where I saved experienced readers some confusing search time by pointing them directly to what I was talking about.

Anyway, the Intel method is the slow boat to China. If I did my job by deleting the 2 most useless things every year, it would take a century to turn the company (team) around. (And the boss would still expect me to point him directly to what I'm talking about.)

LOL, fair enough. In truth, he dropped the bottom 5 players, but 3 were inconsequential. Anyway, on a 10-man rotation, dropping the bottom two is still 20%... so think about that percentage more than the absolute numbers. IMHO, I think he's doing fine with this method.

 

[oldguy]

I wouldn't worry too much about the trade because I'm pretty sure Daryly Morey would want no part of it.

Battier is about 3X the defender Martell is, and about 10X smarter. Battier might only be able to really provide high level play for another couple of years, but he's exactly the kind of player I want Nicolas to learn from in practice.

As for Rudy, he plays the same position as our best player; you're kidding yourself if you think he's going to be satisfied with A) 20-25 minutes a night and B) taking less money to stay here so he can be second fiddle to Brandon Roy.

What, me worry?

I was just putting in my two cents on your trade idea. I don't like the idea of giving up Rudy for a two year rental on a guy that may not even start when Nic gets healthy. Even if he's going to mentor Nic. It doesn't seem like either of us thinks Battier gets the team over the hump.

As for trading Rudy, I could live with that, if it improves the team for the long haul. I've been saying since around this time last year that if the Blazers can't get Rudy minutes this year, he would want out of Portland. I don't think it's a given that he's gone because Brandon plays on the same team.

The three guard rotation could give Brandon 34 minutes a night and Rudy and JB could each get around 31, depending on who's hot. Maybe that's kidding myself, but Rudy might stick around for a major role like that.

If not, oh well, but I'd like to see the Blazers do better than Battier.

Go Blazers

 

[STOMP]

As far as balancing said roster, if some GM would just take Outlaw and Blake off our hands, and give us a backup Center in return, we'd be balanced. Regardless, both those guys are expiring, so really all KP has to do to balance the roster is wait and save Paul Allen some bucks.

While I agree that the team could add some size to their mix to achieve more balance, I'd rather that guy be a PF then center. Aldridge is a solid option guarding most Bigs and would make a fine tandem paired with another good PF. When teamed with Travis they present a tough small ball look but I'd love to see another talented good sized PF to pair LA with too.

I'm very curious if Freeland can be an option. How legit is his 6'10? How athletic is he? Can he D up at all? What about Claver? Travis sure doesn't seem to have the team over the barrel in his upcoming free agency and the economy in general isn't exactly booming... I wouldn't be surprised to see him back on the cheap if these youngins are in camp next offseason.

STOMP

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm very curious if Freeland can be an option. How legit is his 6'10? How athletic is he?

Freeland in action

Can he D up at all?

I think he'd get outmuscled pretty easily. For the time being he's mostly a blocks guy - think of him as Birdman type.

What about Claver?

Watch Claver starting at 48 seconds in in this video.

Also this:
[video=youtube;DhSmBuB81tg]