Grade the Blazers' roster changes

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Grade for changes in draft and free agency?

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wizenheimer said:
like Bones said, you're wrong about Portland's draft pick situation

the 2021 is lottery protected and if 2021 is not conveyed the same protection rolls over till the next draft. IIRC, this obligation lasts till 2027, which I believe (might be wrong) is the limit of future pick trades

so, in terms of assets Portland has at their disposal this season, they have no 1sts to offer because of the Septien rule

chances are the Blazers make the playoffs this season; so they'd send the 2021 first to Houston. Then, they'd have future 1sts to bargain with. But not till then
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Not necessarily true.
Portland can relax the protections on the '21 pick to make sure it conveys. If they do that - then they'd have future picks at their disposal to trade
 
wizenheimer said:
like Bones said, you're wrong about Portland's draft pick situation

the 2021 is lottery protected and if 2021 is not conveyed the same protection rolls over till the next draft. IIRC, this obligation lasts till 2027, which I believe (might be wrong) is the limit of future pick trades

so, in terms of assets Portland has at their disposal this season, they have no 1sts to offer because of the Septien rule

chances are the Blazers make the playoffs this season; so they'd send the 2021 first to Houston. Then, they'd have future 1sts to bargain with. But not till then
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If Portland wanted to trade, say, a 2023 first, they'd have to go to Houston and change the protections on their pick. If Houston isn't contending, and Portland knows they'll make the playoffs at the deadline, I could see them tossing some cash and the rights to some foreign dude to Houston to get them to remove the protections from our 2021 first so that we can trade our 2023 1st.
 
tester551 said:
Not necessarily true.
Portland can relax the protections on the '21 pick to make sure it conveys. If they do that - then they'd have future picks at their disposal to trade
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No, Portland has to get Houston to agree to relax the protections, and if Houston is in the hunt, they may not elect to do so because they wouldn't want to help out a western conference rival.

However, you're making a different argument than the original post on the subject, and we currently cannot trade a single future 1st.
 
wizenheimer said:
like Bones said, you're wrong about Portland's draft pick situation

the 2021 is lottery protected and if 2021 is not conveyed the same protection rolls over till the next draft. IIRC, this obligation lasts till 2027, which I believe (might be wrong) is the limit of future pick trades

so, in terms of assets Portland has at their disposal this season, they have no 1sts to offer because of the Septien rule

chances are the Blazers make the playoffs this season; so they'd send the 2021 first to Houston. Then, they'd have future 1sts to bargain with. But not till then
Click to expand...
Like I've said a bunch of times I don't think picks really matter because Olshey wants to see what this core (and probably what this whole roster) can do for a full season, so I doubt that he will be active out there pursuing trades. That doesn't mean we won't see a "consolidation" trade or any other trades that another team offers that Olshey likes or makes a counter on but I just think if this team stays around .600 that Olshey won't be shopping anyone. So I think we will convey that pick to Houston on draft day and be able to make trades using first rounders starting with the 2023 and on, if this team doesn't perform up to Olshey's expectations or if Olshey is relieved of his position due to the team's performance after this season is over.
 
tester551 said:
Not necessarily true.
Portland can relax the protections on the '21 pick to make sure it conveys. If they do that - then they'd have future picks at their disposal to trade
Click to expand...

sure....but the post I responded to talked about a consolidation trade...this season...for a star. And in order to relax protections, Houston would have to agree
 
BonesJones said:
No we can't. That 2021 pick is projected through several years.
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Yes you can, you can trade 2023 and forward picks conditionally on the 2021 pick conveying.

If we trade for a star it's pretty obvious 2021 will be conveyed.
 
wizenheimer said:
sure....but the post I responded to talked about a consolidation trade...this season...for a star. And in order to relax protections, Houston would have to agree
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Sorry I’m slow to the party. Real life intrudes from time to time. You made good points about the inability of the Blazers to add a first round pick this season and their unwillingness to go into the LT. That does limit trade possibilities, but it certainly doesn’t eliminate them. The Blazers have assets other teams would like, and at attractive prices. A rebuilding team may not need as much incentivization in the form of first round picks when they actually want some of our guys for their rebuild. No, you’re not going to get a top young star, but a fading one with a short time on his contract might well be available on those terms. The most obvious example would be Aldridge. I’m not advocating for that deal, just using him as an example.
 
wizenheimer said:
like Bones said, you're wrong about Portland's draft pick situation

the 2021 is lottery protected and if 2021 is not conveyed the same protection rolls over till the next draft. IIRC, this obligation lasts till 2027, which I believe (might be wrong) is the limit of future pick trades

so, in terms of assets Portland has at their disposal this season, they have no 1sts to offer because of the Septien rule

chances are the Blazers make the playoffs this season; so they'd send the 2021 first to Houston. Then, they'd have future 1sts to bargain with. But not till then
Click to expand...

Incorrect, picks can be worded to trade conditionally. So the Blazers two years after the HOU trade conveys which obviously it would in 2021 then pick gets traded to next team. The Blazers can make such trade immediately.

The wording on the protection gets convoluted but the trade can still take place fine. It happens all the time.
 
BonesJones said:
If Portland wanted to trade, say, a 2023 first, they'd have to go to Houston and change the protections on their pick. If Houston isn't contending, and Portland knows they'll make the playoffs at the deadline, I could see them tossing some cash and the rights to some foreign dude to Houston to get them to remove the protections from our 2021 first so that we can trade our 2023 1st.
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False, it can be worded to trade two years after pick goes to Houston. Trade can happen immediately. No approval from Houston is necessary. Teams do this all the time.
 
Tince said:
One of those two is responsible for acquiring coaches and players.

How many times has Olshey brought in a player that was in those categories the previous season and/or how many players have left Stotts only to jump into one of those categories the next season?

Doesn't seem like the different coaching is making these players jump in or out of these catgories.
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Fair enough, but with the obvious caveat - we can't say how someone like Leonard would have turned out with different coaching at the begining of his career.
 
Buffalo Custard said:
Fair enough, but with the obvious caveat - we can't say how someone like Leonard would have turned out with different coaching at the begining of his career.
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True, but you can say that about any player/coach combination. It's not like he went to Miami and turned into this talent under Spo that Portland never saw. I'm open to evidence that the Portland coaching staff developes players better/worse than most NBA coaching staffs.
 
Tince said:
True, but you can say that about any player/coach combination. It's not like he went to Miami and turned into this talent under Spo that Portland never saw. I'm open to evidence that the Portland coaching staff developes players better/worse than most NBA coaching staffs.
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I look at players in and outside Stotts teams.

Ed Davis, Plumlee, Harkless, Amimu, Crabbe, Nurk had much better success here than other teams.

Will Barton and ??? were much better away from Stotts.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
I look at players in and outside Stotts teams.

Ed Davis, Plumlee, Harkless, Amimu, Crabbe, Nurk had much better success here than other teams.

Will Barton and ??? were much better away from Stotts.
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They all played with Dame and not someone of his talent since. My guess is that being on the court with Dame did more for their production than Terry having them run around handing the ball off to a guard in the world's most expensive version of the weave.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Incorrect, picks can be worded to trade conditionally. So the Blazers two years after the HOU trade conveys which obviously it would in 2021 then pick gets traded to next team. The Blazers can make such trade immediately.

The wording on the protection gets convoluted but the trade can still take place fine. It happens all the time.
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I'm not convinced that's accurate

Portland traded:

• Trevor Ariza
• rights to Isaiah Stewart
• draft pick (first round pick protected top 14 in 2021-27, else 2027 second round pick)

the time limit for trading future 1st's is 7 years. Which is how far out that pick is traded. There is no guarantee that the 1st will ever convey. Portland could end up in the lottery for 7 straight drafts

I'm not sure if there is a legal "condition" in this case. Maybe Portland could trade a 1st under the condition that it conveys as soon as is legal after the 2021-2027 pick conveys to Houston. But since it might not ever convey and the 2nd traded pick could simply expire against the time limit, it would have almost no value

I'd appreciate you showing me a link proving what you're saying is a legal trade. I can't recall any other trades where a single
pick is conditionally protected for 7 straight years

WesleyMatthews said:
False, it can be worded to trade two years after pick goes to Houston. Trade can happen immediately. No approval from Houston is necessary. Teams do this all the time.
Click to expand...

again, "2 years after" could be 2029 and teams can only trade picks 7 drafts in advance which is the protection time-frame of that draft pick
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm not convinced that's accurate

Portland traded:

• Trevor Ariza
• rights to Isaiah Stewart
• draft pick (first round pick protected top 14 in 2021-27, else 2027 second round pick)

the time limit for trading future 1st's is 7 years. Which is how far out that pick is traded. There is no guarantee that the 1st will ever convey. Portland could end up in the lottery for 7 straight drafts

I'm not sure if there is a legal "condition" in this case. Maybe Portland could trade a 1st under the condition that it conveys as soon as is legal after the 2021-2027 pick conveys to Houston. But since it might not ever convey and the 2nd traded pick could simply expire against the time limit, it would have almost no value

I'd appreciate you showing me a link proving what you're saying is a legal trade. I can't recall any other trades where a single
pick is conditionally protected for 7 straight years



again, "2 years after" could be 2029 and teams can only trade picks 7 drafts in advance
Click to expand...

Its true Portland cannot 100% trade a pick.

Portland can trade a pick now that transfers 2 years after the Hou pick. In theory it could never be given if as you said Portland was in the lottery the next 6 years straight. The trading partner would have to accept that chance. So you can say Portland could 99.5% trade a pick or whatever the odds Portland trades for another star and ends up in the lottery for 6 straight years.

In practice Portland can trade first round picks that have basically the same value as a year ago, when were talking about trades for a star.

They can also give a trading partner swaps instead of picks.
 
An example with some similarities is the Lakers trading away picks in the Nash trade and then Dwight Howard trade. Lakers kept keeping their pick since they were so shitty and eventually Orlando didn't get a pick they thought they would get.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
False, it can be worded to trade two years after pick goes to Houston. Trade can happen immediately. No approval from Houston is necessary. Teams do this all the time.
Click to expand...
You're correct, I was just talking about if they wanted to trade a solid first, not a contigent one.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Its true Portland cannot 100% trade a pick.

Portland can trade a pick now that transfers 2 years after the Hou pick. In theory it could never be given if as you said Portland was in the lottery the next 6 years straight. The trading partner would have to accept that chance. So you can say Portland could 99.5% trade a pick or whatever the odds Portland trades for another star and ends up in the lottery for 6 straight years.

In practice Portland can trade first round picks that have basically the same value as a year ago, when were talking about trades for a star.

They can also give a trading partner swaps instead of picks.
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the issue I'm having with it is that pick's protection limits would have to extend 9 years into the future, but the cap is at 7 years. I'm still not convinced the league office would say it meets CBA requirements.

now maybe, the life of contingent conditions would only extend 7 years then expire. Maybe that could meet CBA requirements. Practically speaking, another team could expect that the Blazers would be in the playoffs at least once in the next 4 seasons, so there would be a good chance that 2nd pick would convey

but, Portland would be stupid to trade that 2nd pick without protections. Dame and CJ will be over 35 at the outer edge of the protections of the Houston pick. And that loops right back around to what I was initially saying: an encumbered, contingent, protected draft pick, with a chance not to convey, would have very little trade value. Not much more value, if any, than a 2nd round pick. That, coupled with the Blazers being hard-capped and seemingly determined to stay under the tax threshold, means Portland's trade leverage, this season, is significantly limited compared to other teams. At least it is when a star is on the market (assuming Olshey still refuses to trade CJ, or Zach and Simons)
 
wizenheimer said:
the issue I'm having with it is that pick's protection limits would have to extend 9 years into the future, but the cap is at 7 years. I'm still not convinced the league office would say it meets CBA requirements.

now maybe, the life of contingent conditions would only extend 7 years then expire. Maybe that could meet CBA requirements. Practically speaking, another team could expect that the Blazers would be in the playoffs at least once in the next 4 seasons, so there would be a good chance that 2nd pick would convey

but, Portland would be stupid to trade that 2nd pick without protections. Dame and CJ will be over 35 at the outer edge of the protections of the Houston pick. And that loops right back around to what I was initially saying: an encumbered, contingent, protected draft pick, with a chance not to convey, would have very little trade value. Not much more value, if any, than a 2nd round pick. That, coupled with the Blazers being hard-capped and seemingly determined to stay under the tax threshold, means Portland's trade leverage, this season, is significantly limited compared to other teams. At least it is when a star is on the market (assuming Olshey still refuses to trade CJ, or Zach and Simons)
Click to expand...

It can't go to 9 years. It would say in that case at 7 years it becomes a protected second round pick or such. Trading partner would have to accept such pick. In practice that would have almost zero change in picks value because if Portland acquires a star it would seem extremely unlikely Blazers don't convey the pick in 2021 to Houston let alone multiple years later.

The wording on the protection and year of the pick would be very convulted and confusing. But it would have almost no change in value of pick traded now. That was my whole point of initial reply, the limit on trading a pick has almost zero impact on Portland ability to put draft equity into a trade now to acquire another star.

Yes technically there is a bunch of fine print but Blazers still have tons of draft equity to trade, as opposed to teams like the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, etc that are without 4-6 years of picks. The Blazers have only traded away one.

Blazers obviously wouldn't want pick to be unprotected, but if they could get a real star like Beal maybe they say fuck it and take the risk. They have these options.
 
Wiz,

Neil could make this argument you are making as a negotiation in trades. "I can't trade the pick we already did. It needs all sorts of confusing protections. Will you take Nassir Little instead? "

I still believe there is tons of draft equity the Blazers can throw into a trade but if you think Neil is really playing 4d chess maybe he insisted on the 7 year protection to give him a fake limit in future trade talks.
 
In retrospect... anyone want to change their grade?

For me, although I love RoCo dearly, even that trade gets worse as time goes by. We were mad at Ariza, but he was useful for Miami, and we could've got Saddiq Bey AND whomever is available this year...
 
Rastapopoulos said:
In retrospect... anyone want to change their grade?

For me, although I love RoCo dearly, even that trade gets worse as time goes by. We were mad at Ariza, but he was useful for Miami, and we could've got Saddiq Bey AND whomever is available this year...
Click to expand...

I've thought about that as well, and I think one of the biggest things we should be trying to do now is to get him to sign an extension. Something between 2/24 - 2/30. Even with one year left on his deal, he would easily recoup a late first or more from a championship contender. Also just based on his role and his play style, I'm not super worried about him declining. He will be basically the same player until he decides to retire. Getting him to sign an extension can make him even more of an asset in case we decide to blow it up. We may be able to recoup both firsts when he gets moved.

Also I don't think Saddiq Bey, Isiah Stewart, or whoever that pick ended up being would have made much of a difference. Nice players, but not ones that change the course of your franchise, and not as good as RoCo in the short term.
 
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wait a second. @Fez Forthright voted A+ in this poll and constantly trashes Neil at every chance he gets?

And @wizenheimer gave Olshey a B- while his posts indicate that should have been an F?

@SlyPokerDog gave an A? what?

man I wish i had you guys giving out grades in college.
 
In hindsight, I can't believe no one gave lower than a B-. Yikes.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Like:
Covington
Not re-signing Whiteside
Unloading Hezonja
Re-signing Hood

Meh:
Re-acquiring Kanter

No idea:
CJ Elleby

Honestly confused:
Derrick Jones Jr.

Don't like:
Not getting Xavier Tillman
Not getting Millsap
Not getting Cassius Winston
Not getting a backup PG with high BBIQ
Re-signing Melo
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This was the most spot on evaluation. Only miss was re-signing Hood, but that turned out fine since he became filler in a deal for a better player.

Tillman would have been great instead of Kanter. Millsap would have been good since he would have replaced DJJ's minutes and also wouldn't have been on the other side killing us in the playoffs. Think you should have gave lower than a B-!
 
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