Grantland: The Ultimate Crapshoot

[Rhal]

http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/

Just read this Bill Simmons article that looked at the last 19 drafts talking about the best players from those drafts. Regardless of how you think Simmons ranks the players in those drafts, it makes me want to run from the lottery and not look back.
There have been a few people who have talked the last few years about how crappy the draft actually is and this article is a prime example of that.

 

[Draco]

Yeah its a good article. Draft is so unpredictable, yes its a place to add talent but you don't want to intentionally screw up other aspects of your basketball operations just to get a few higher draft picks.

How many players were drafted in the lottery actually became solid starters and stayed with the team that drafted them? Its extraordinarily rare.

 

[PDXFonz]

I almost ranked Beal over Lillard, but didn’t want to start a civil war with the city of Portland

Hmm

 

[julius]

Am I reading that right that he says the 15th pick in the 2012 draft was the best player taken?

Question 4: Is there any rhyme or reason to snaring one of the best three picks in an NBA draft, period?

I know, I know … we’re dealing with a fairly small sample size, and I’m definitely not trying to out-FiveThirtyEight anyone over at FiveThirtyEight. This column is for entertainment purposes only, and really, just a convoluted excuse for me to redraft everyone from 1995 through 2013. But here’s where the best, second-best and third-best players were drafted over the past 19 years.

Best picks: nos. 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 9, 9, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 28

Because it has to be going from 95-2013, and not 2013-95. The #28 pick in the 1995 draft was Greg Ostertag.

 

[Hobbesarable]

Am I reading that right that he says the 15th pick in the 2012 draft was the best player taken?




Because it has to be going from 95-2013, and not 2013-95. The #28 pick in the 1995 draft was Greg Ostertag.

And the #28 pick in the 2013 draft was Livio Jean-Charles.

 

[Hobbesarable]

Am I reading that right that he says the 15th pick in the 2012 draft was the best player taken?




Because it has to be going from 95-2013, and not 2013-95. The #28 pick in the 1995 draft was Greg Ostertag.

They are out of order. The 28 value signifies the 2001 draft when Tony Parker was selected.

 

[Rhal]

Hmm

Haha yea there are definitely a few rankings that had me shaking my head but it wouldn't be Bill Simmons if he didnt take at least one shot at the Blazers in an article that mentions them.

 

[julius]

They are out of order. The 28 value signifies the 2001 draft when Tony Parker was selected.

ooooooh

 

[Rhal]

Am I reading that right that he says the 15th pick in the 2012 draft was the best player taken?




Because it has to be going from 95-2013, and not 2013-95. The #28 pick in the 1995 draft was Greg Ostertag.

Yea he thinks Kawini from the Spurs is better then Irving.

 

[BBert]

Haha yea there are definitely a few rankings that had me shaking my head but it wouldn't be Bill Simmons if he didnt take at least one shot at the Blazers in an article that mentions them.

Or the Blazers fans. He likes us or he wouldn't tease us the way he does every chance he gets. Plus he needs the hits.

 

[Rhal]

Or the Blazers fans. He likes us or he wouldn't tease us every chance he gets. Plus he needs the hits.

I listen to his podcasts and he does talk about loving portland and their fans but he cant help poking the fans with a stick every now and then.

 

[Sinobas]

Blazers on that whiff list too many times!

 

[Mediocre Man]

The two most important aspects of the draft are scouting and medical evaluations. If you have those two aspects, tanking for talent is a great way to build a dynasty.

Blazers are a great example of that.

They got bad on purpose to rebuild this beast and came away with three high lottery years

05, 06, 07

Webster, Aldridge, Roy, Oden

Obviously had we drafted different people we may not have had those same picks, but Paul, Aldridge and Durant is a big 3

Poor scouting hurts rebuilding teams

 

[cmeese47]

Am I reading that right that he says the 15th pick in the 2012 draft was the best player taken?



Because it has to be going from 95-2013, and not 2013-95. The #28 pick in the 1995 draft was Greg Ostertag.

He is listing them by number not by year.

 

[cmeese47]

The two most important aspects of the draft are scouting and medical evaluations. If you have those two aspects, tanking for talent is a great way to build a dynasty.

Blazers are a great example of that.

They got bad on purpose to rebuild this beast and came away with three high lottery years

05, 06, 07

Webster, Aldridge, Roy, Oden

Obviously had we drafted different people we may not have had those same picks, but Paul, Aldridge and Durant is a big 3

Poor scouting hurts rebuilding teams

Great example except for the whole part where we passed on Chris Paul or Deron Williams for Webster and shit the bed taking Oden over Durant.

 

[Draco]

The two most important aspects of the draft are scouting and medical evaluations. If you have those two aspects, tanking for talent is a great way to build a dynasty.

Blazers are a great example of that.

They got bad on purpose to rebuild this beast and came away with three high lottery years

05, 06, 07

Webster, Aldridge, Roy, Oden

Obviously had we drafted different people we may not have had those same picks, but Paul, Aldridge and Durant is a big 3

Poor scouting hurts rebuilding teams

I think you missed the entire premise of the article. Teams consistently cannot figure out who the best players will end up being in a draft. Historically many of the best players fall to spots all over the draft.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Great example except for the whole part where we passed on Chris Paul or Deron Williams for Webster and shit the bed taking Oden over Durant.

Wasn't that my example?

 

[cmeese47]

Wasn't that my example?

Lol should read to the bottom next time

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I liked Bill Simmons a hell of a lot better before I could picture him and hear his whiney voice in my head as I read him. And Wade gets 4 stars (as does Iverson - he's an iconic player, but not really because he helped his team much on the court, except for that one Larry Brown year where they built the team to cover for his flaws) but both Parker and Ginobili only get 2? Pah. But the whole exercise is sort of warped anyway: we all would have ranked Brandon Roy the top player in his draft if his knees hadn't given out. It all depends on when you do this. There's no way Carter-Williams will be ranked top of his draft in a couple of years - he's a ROY like Tyreke Evans or Damon Stoudamire.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The two most important aspects of the draft are scouting and medical evaluations. If you have those two aspects, tanking for talent is a great way to build a dynasty.

Both of those are WAY behind dumb luck. Scouting would've told you Evan Turner was a superstar in the making. Medical evaluations means everybody passes on Batum and Dejuan Blair. The problem is, you're picking unfinished products. Even Brandon Roy - everyone thought he was done developing and he would be a solid starter at best, but he kept getting better... until those knees gave out.

And suppose "medical evaluation" tells you: he's broken bones a few times - like Embiid. So what? Can you infer that it's going to keep happening? Or were those just accidents? Zydrunas Ilgauskas looked like he was done before he started. Then he had a long and productive career.

 

[jlprk]

I liked Bill Simmons a hell of a lot better before I could picture him and hear his whiney voice in my head as I read him.

I don't have cable. Isn't he 6-6, with a booming baritone?

 

[GriLtCheeZ]

Great example except for the whole part where we passed on Chris Paul or Deron Williams for Webster and shit the bed taking Oden over Durant.

Don't forget we got Jarrett Jack as well!

 

[Rhal]

Both of those are WAY behind dumb luck. Scouting would've told you Evan Turner was a superstar in the making. Medical evaluations means everybody passes on Batum and Dejuan Blair. The problem is, you're picking unfinished products. Even Brandon Roy - everyone thought he was done developing and he would be a solid starter at best, but he kept getting better... until those knees gave out.

And suppose "medical evaluation" tells you: he's broken bones a few times - like Embiid. So what? Can you infer that it's going to keep happening? Or were those just accidents? Zydrunas Ilgauskas looked like he was done before he started. Then he had a long and productive career.

Pretty much agree with this. Just think how things would be different if some lucky breaks went our way for instance. We win the coinflip to get Hakeem, suddenly that changes two franchises history. If we take Durant over Oden that changes two franchises histories as well. We don't trade Thomas for LMA and we and the Bulls look vastly different as well.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Both of those are WAY behind dumb luck. Scouting would've told you Evan Turner was a superstar in the making. Medical evaluations means everybody passes on Batum and Dejuan Blair. The problem is, you're picking unfinished products. Even Brandon Roy - everyone thought he was done developing and he would be a solid starter at best, but he kept getting better... until those knees gave out.

And suppose "medical evaluation" tells you: he's broken bones a few times - like Embiid. So what? Can you infer that it's going to keep happening? Or were those just accidents? Zydrunas Ilgauskas looked like he was done before he started. Then he had a long and productive career.

Armchair GM's always have an I told you so mentality. There is never a right answer before picking these guys really. San Antonio has gotten really good at taking productive players though, It would be interesting to see if they were all luck, and if not, what they do to pick the right guy.

 

[Hobbesarable]

Pretty much agree with this. Just think how things would be different if some lucky breaks went our way for instance. We win the coinflip to get Hakeem, suddenly that changes two franchises history. If we take Durant over Oden that changes two franchises histories as well. We don't trade Thomas for LMA and we and the Bulls look vastly different as well.

I wonder how much the health report became a factor when drafting Roy and Oden. And how much of that was KP's doing.

Did he just roll the dice and hope for the best?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Lets not give the fans a free pass on the CP3 fuck up either. There were a select few on most Blazer message boards who were in favor of Paul. As I recall the phrase "another midget PG" (referring to Damon) was the brilliant reasoning for not wanting him.

 

[Rhal]

I wonder how much the health report became a factor when drafting Roy and Oden. And how much of that was KP's doing.

Did he just roll the dice and hope for the best?

People keep questioning this and yes they both had red flags but we will never know how badly those red flags were viewed as. I can't even come up with comparisons to players who deteriorated as fast as both of them.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Lets not give the fans a free pass on the CP3 fuck up either. There were a select few on most Blazer message boards who were in favor of Paul. As I recall the phrase "another midget PG" (referring to Damon) was the brilliant reasoning for not wanting him.

I remember that too. Weren't more people in favor of Deron than Paul?

 

[Rhal]

Armchair GM's always have an I told you so mentality. There is never a right answer before picking these guys really. San Antonio has gotten really good at taking productive players though, It would be interesting to see if they were all luck, and if not, what they do to pick the right guy.

There is no data I have that backs this up but It seems like good teams picking at the end of the draft have a better time at finding rotational talent because they aren't drafting on potential but rather fit.

 

[Rhal]

Lets not give the fans a free pass on the CP3 fuck up either. There were a select few on most Blazer message boards who were in favor of Paul. As I recall the phrase "another midget PG" (referring to Damon) was the brilliant reasoning for not wanting him.

Also Telfair showed some great promise his rookie year and people thought he could take the jump into quality starter.