Grantland's Zach Lowe profiles the Blazers

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Portland is a franchise to watch.
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Word.
 
[LMA] was inconsistent in executing Stotts's scheme against the pick-and-roll, and his typical rim-protection technique amounted to politely waving at an opposing player mid-dunk. He can be much better, and he'll have to be if Portland wants any hope of snagging one of those last two playoff spots.
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Word.
 
That was a fantastically detailed and well-written breakdown. I think Lowe has become one of the best basketball writers around.

This was a particularly important paragraph in my mind:
Zach Lowe said:
In the last 10 years, only 32 teams have made the postseason while ranking 16th or worse in points allowed per possession. Most of those teams — 20 of 32 — compensated with a top-five offense, and 25 of 32 sported top-10 overall offenses. The seven exceptions — the teams that made the playoffs despite being mediocre or worse on both ends — all played in the Eastern Conference during its prolonged nadir. In other words: If you want to make the playoffs in the West with a so-so defense, you better actually have a so-so defense (and not a plain bad one), and you better score the hell out of the ball on offense.
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This was a great article. It had the plus and minus of the team. I would agree with most of them; especially how terrible we were at the pick and roll. I will admit that Aldridge's defense wasn't up to his normal self last season too.
 
But some of the failure stems from the lack of a standout defender on the roster. Aldridge has been solid, and often better, but he was not there last season. Matthews might be the team's best defender; he's feisty, smart, and hyper-alert, but he can only do so much with his God-given size and athleticism. Batum looks the part, but even his fans within the organization would admit he's become overrated on that end. He has the speed and length to guard multiple positions, and he has put it all together for occasional stirring stretches of defense and highlight chase-down blocks.
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WORD
 
very nice article, though it's hard to agree with (this article's or anyone's) conclusions about playoffs without assessing the similar weaknesses of other teams.

Would a Williams/Leonard for Asik/Canaan trade have any interest for the Rockets?

edit: salaries don't work, Matthews would have to be in there.
 
Last edited:
It may be that Portland has built itself a core with a ceiling lower than we'd expect given the starry names and droolworthy skill sets — a core that needs a major long-term jolt from free agency or the internal development of a very young player other than Lillard.
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I think this will end up being pretty accurate. I DO think this team is built for regular season success, but we're still miles away from being a contender. We're going to need a dramatically different roster in order to get there.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
very nice article, though it's hard to agree with (this article's or anyone's) conclusions about playoffs without assessing the similar weaknesses of other teams.

Would a Williams/Leonard for Asik/Canaan trade have any interest for the Rockets?

edit: salaries don't work, Matthews would have to be in there.
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I would totally do it. Asik is the perfect contract to bring in because it expires in 2 years (Going with that foot out model). I would be much happier knowing we have a center combo of Lopez and Asik, then Lopez and Leonard.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
That was a fantastically detailed and well-written breakdown. I think Lowe has become one of the best basketball writers around.
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Yup, he's really articulate and thoughtful in his pieces. He carries Grantland's bball coverage.
 
Did anyone notice the footnotes on possible "Aldridge trade scenarios"? Its pretty ironic that they resemble a lot of what our forum suggested.

Butler might be the sticking point here — the guy whose presence makes or breaks this deal. A lot of executives, pretending to stand in Olshey's shoes, would make this deal in a heartbeat provided Butler is included. But dealing Butler could create a major gap on the wing for the Bulls, both this season and next, since Luol Deng has just one year left on his contract. Boozer is not the most appealing centerpiece from Portland's perspective, and his contract mirrors Aldridge's almost exactly, meaning the Blazers get no cap relief in that exchange.

My three favorite fake Aldridge trades, for the record:
(1) Aldridge for Blake Griffin straight-up. The Clips get a veteran pick-and-pop partner for Chris Paul in their pursuit of a ring right now, while Portland gets a star locked into a long-term deal. File this as damn near impossible; the Clips aren't trading the guy who re-created their franchise.
(2) Aldridge to Detroit for Greg Monroe, one of Detroit's young wings, one future first-round pick, and the expiring contract of Rodney Stuckey. The Pistons get a big man who can actually shoot, a legit no. 1 option for their funky roster, and they don't have to worry about David Falk's inevitable demand for a Monroe max contract. The Blazers get a young big who is already a borderline All-Star, and some other goodies.
(3) Aldridge to Oklahoma City for Serge Ibaka, Jeremy Lamb, and two future first-round picks. Wouldn't this be fun? Sure, it creates some tax issues for OKC in 2014-15 and beyond, but good luck dealing with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Aldridge. Still: The Thunder may look at this as a major defensive downgrade, and as a needlessly complicated introduction of someone unwilling to play the third banana.

The Rockets would surely covet Aldridge, leading to a popular fake trade making the rounds among league executives: Aldridge to Houston for Asik, Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas, salary filler, and picks. Suffice it to say, the folks bandying this one around are higher than average on Asik, and lower than average on Aldridge. I'd be shocked if Portland even thought about this — at least for now.
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Olshey: Paul Allen Has Never Wanted Blazers To Do Full Rebuild

With injuries to Brandon Roy and Greg Oden that ended their tenures with the Portland Trail Blazers, the franchise has remained a fringe playoff team.

Damian Lillard was the NBA's Rookie of the Year last season and the Blazers have resisted trading LaMarcus Aldridge for younger players.

"Paul Allen has never wanted to rebuild," says Neil Olshey. "He does not want to take three steps backward in order to take four steps forward. So we decided we were just going to have one foot in, and one foot out."

Aldridge is now 28, while Nicolas Batum is 25 and Lillard is 23.

"Something like 45 wins is OK with a young roster, starting a bunch of rookie scale guys, and when you have all this cap room in 2015," Olshey said. "But if you're capped out with no flexibility, hovering around 45 wins? That's not acceptable."
 
Re: Olshey: Paul Allen Has Never Wanted Blazers To Do Full Rebuild

Link?
 
Re: Olshey: Paul Allen Has Never Wanted Blazers To Do Full Rebuild

SlyPokerDog said:
Link?
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It's in the Grantland thread. Why don't we all just create threads with our favorite part of the article? Maybe a Grantland Article Subforum?
 
Zach Lowe said:
The Blazers don't have aspirations of being an elite defense next season. If they can get to somewhere around league-average and combine that with a top-eight offense, they'll have a good shot at making the playoffs. And the ingredients for a very strong offense are here. They scored 106.4 points per 100 possessions when Aldridge, Lillard, Batum, and Matthews shared the floor together, about equivalent to Houston's no. 6 overall mark last season, per NBA.com. And Portland had the best offense in the league for a 15-game stretch that started with Eric Maynor's arrival via trade and ended when the season went into total free fall.
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This is the part that has me most excited about Lillard's improvement as a 2nd year player increasing our chances to make the playoffs. I remember back around the all-star break, a lot of people were claiming Lillard had hit the rookie wall. His scoring was down and so were his FG% and 3FG%. Then, in came Eric Maynor, a solid back-up PG that allowed Lillard to play off the ball for 0 or 12 minutes a game. In addition to that 15 game stretch where the Blazers had the best offense in the league, March actually ended up being the best month of Lillard's rookie year - by far. He averaged 21.3 ppg on .476 FG% and and incredible 4.67 3FG%. He scored more, got to the line a lot more and had as many assists while averaging fewer MPG in March than in December, January, February and April.

In truth Lillard didn't hit the rookie wall (obviously - just look at those March numbers). Teams made stopping Lillard, and getting the ball out of his hands, the focus of their defensive preparation. With a decent back-up PG, Lillard was now able to play of the ball, which made him every harder to stop - take the ball out of Lillard's hands? No problem, give it to Eric Maynor and let him create for Damian. If Eric Maynor made Damian Lillard that much better, imagine what Mo Willams can do for him. Of course, Lillard will remain our starting PG and the main driver of our offense, but I can't wait to see about 12 minutes a game of Lillard and Mo Willams playing together.

Zach Lowe said:
That's a small sample size, but it has raised hope internally that Portland can achieve the "elite offense/average defense" profile it will take for them to make the playoffs.
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I doubt if we can be the best offense in the entire league (15 games is a small, but not insignificant sample size), but I think we can be VERY good offensively, and with Robin Lopez protecting the rim our defense should be greatly improved. So, once again, our two biggest weaknesses from last season (worst bench in NBA history and non-existent interior defense) have both been addressed. So, if we can be a top 8 offense and play average defense, we have a REALLY good shot at making the playoffs.

This is my kind of article - well researched, very objective and balanced. It's refreshing to see a writer support his conclusions with actual evidence and examples. It seems like so many of these preseason predictions are based on the authors gut feelings and personal biases, combined with a lack of knowledge of the teams they don't cover on a daily basis. I look forward to reading more articles from Zach Lowe.

BNM
 
Re: Olshey: Paul Allen Has Never Wanted Blazers To Do Full Rebuild

Zybot said:
It's in the Grantland thread. Why don't we all just create threads with our favorite part of the article? Maybe a Grantland Article Subforum?
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SPD must be slow. I think there is something wrong with him mentally
 
Re: Olshey: Paul Allen Has Never Wanted Blazers To Do Full Rebuild

Zybot said:
It's in the Grantland thread. Why don't we all just create threads with our favorite part of the article? Maybe a Grantland Article Subforum?
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Thanks.
 
I skimmed/read parts of this article. I am going to read it later. Thanks for posting it. It seems rather in depth and the point seems to be that we have given ourselves many options whether LMA stays or goes. Also excited about our defense being improved. Olshey also is pretty humble and gives credit to his whole team and Paul Allen. I like him as our GM.
 
It's crazy--an analysis of the Blazers that isn't just a massive sunshine-pump, and we "lemmings" aren't lambasting it? Instead, we're actually responding positively to it? What's going on here?!
 
Boob-No-More said:
... and with Robin Lopez protecting the rim our defense should be greatly improved. So, once again, our two biggest weaknesses from last season (worst bench in NBA history and non-existent interior defense) have both been addressed. So, if we can be a top 8 offense and play average defense, we have a REALLY good shot at making the playoffs.
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Don't get me wrong, I think having an actual C playing the position will be a big help to our defense. But I'm still dubious about us being an average defensive team. I'll wait to see what the coach actually implements, but roster improvements alone will not get us from "horrible" to "average". It appears we now have three starters (Lopez, Nic, Wes) that are above average defenders. Hopefully Lillard's time with The Glove will get him close to average, but I think that might be a stretch to expect at this point. But really it all comes down to having a solid defensive philosophy with all five players properly playing their part - if coach can't make that happen the personnel doesn't really matter.
 
Cant help but wonder what this write up would be like if we were in the East ... the West is just plain tough. I am firmly in the camp that says our starters were good enough last season to nearly get us to the playoffs and they will only get better. Our bench has changed night and day and worst case scenario is they win us a few more games. So I can see anywhere from the 5-8 seed but I would love for a few of the upper teams to flop and snag the 4th seed for HCA. That would be fun.
 
blue9 said:
D But really it all comes down to having a solid defensive philosophy with all five players properly playing their part - if coach can't make that happen the personnel doesn't really matter.
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^^ This

Don't really have much faith in Stotts, tbh.
 
blue9 said:
Don't get me wrong, I think having an actual C playing the position will be a big help to our defense. But I'm still dubious about us being an average defensive team. I'll wait to see what the coach actually implements, but roster improvements alone will not get us from "horrible" to "average". It appears we now have three starters (Lopez, Nic, Wes) that are above average defenders. Hopefully Lillard's time with The Glove will get him close to average, but I think that might be a stretch to expect at this point. But really it all comes down to having a solid defensive philosophy with all five players properly playing their part - if coach can't make that happen the personnel doesn't really matter.
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We just need to "stay connected" and "scrap".

he he.
 
I've basically said the major points in that article numerous times on this board. It doesn't take a Grantland writer to figure it out. Even the Batum stuff I've said, yet I'm just "negative".

Next season the Blazers will be a mediocre/below average defense and an offense that will score pts, with a lot of them coming from 3's. If they can improve in both areas a little bit they have a chance at a lower seed next year, kind of like the 2012-2013 Houston Rockets, the 8th seed last year.

That's your 2013-2014 Portland Trail Blazers.
 
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