Would it really be worth it to have a somewhat expensive backup for "just in case"?
Yes. Neither Joel nor Greg have proven to be ironmen to this point in their careers. Having both of them, has us covered if/when one is injured. Also, when both are healthy, neither needs to play 40 minutes. Thus, foul trouble is less of an issue, as is fatigue - which reduces the chance of injury. There are PLENTY of overpaid big men in this league that make more AND produce less than Joel. I think he's a vital piece for this team's championship aspirations.
There is a thing called salary cap and with all the young talent we have to re-sign, I'm not sure if Joel will be part of it when he's not necessarily needed.
There's also this thing called Bird Rights. The Blazers have the Bird Rights on all their young players, plus Joel, etc. They can re-sign them all for any amount up the max. contract without concern for the salary cap. In fact, Paul Allen can max out all 15 roster spots if he so chooses. He wouldn't, as that doesn't make sense, but anyone he wants to keep, he will ragardless of the salary cap.
If Oden becomes even close to what we expect him to be, he'll be getting 35-40 minutes a game. That means Joel will get 8-13 minutes unless Oden gets in foul trouble. I'm not sure he's willing to accept such little play time.
I don't think Oden will ever be a 40 MPG, 82-game per season player. Few players are. In fact, there isn't a single player in the league this season averaging 40 MPG. Given Oden's injury and foul troubles, I just don't think that's realistic. There's also very few players who are averaging > 35 MPG who haven't missed any games. Point being, there will be plenty of games over the course of the season where the Blazers back-up center will get more than 15 minutes, and in many cases more than 20 minutes.
Joel has never been the type to cause problems over PT. He didn't complain earlier in the season when Greg was starting. In fact, he thrived - knowing he could come in off the bench and be aggressive without worrying about foul trouble, fatigue, etc. If both players are healthy, and Oden lives up to expectations, I could see Oden getting about 32 - 34 minutes which leaves 14 - 16 for the back-up center. If you factor in injuries, foul trouble and an occasional twin towers line-up, it wouldn't be difficult for the Blazers back-up center to get > 20 MPG. Which seems about right for Joel - especially if we're talking 2 - 3 years from now when Joel's current contract is up and he's 32 - 33 years old.
BNM
