Greg Oden -Tick Tock!

[Fez Hammersticks]

July 7th has passed and he has yet to be extended.

For the Blazers wouldn't it be smart to see if he can stay healthy this season and then match any RFA offer he gets next summer?

I'm sure his agent wants him to sign this summer as the pending lock out is just around the bend and the owners want to clobber the players.

It's kind of like the Carmelo Anthony situation, he might sign the 3-year $60m extension as it's just too much money on the table before the lockout and likely restructuring of contracts.

Do you bite the bullet and extend him or play it safe?

 

[EGame]

No way I extend him unless he takes an offer that is fair (which means not overpaying him by a good amount). In his and his agents mind, they will play the card of "number 1 pick, huge potential" which means he deserves a nice pay day, when in reality he doesn't deserve jack shit. Of course, it isn't his fault he doesn't deserve it, but injuries have proven to be a problem with him and very well could derail his career.

 

[Pinwheel1]

You wait until September to see how he is doing and then you extend for a fair price. We have leverage this year. 10 million a year would be smart for both sides.

 

[alex42083]

G.O. hasn't earned it yet. Unlike Roy and LA, I wouldn't mind playing the waiting game with Greg.

 

[Sug]

Nope, you wait.

 

[THE HCP]

5 years/50 million. You don't want to lose him!

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Extend him. It's a gamble, but one we have to take. I like 4 years/32 million with a team option year at $10 million for year 5.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

wait

 

[Nikolokolus]

After the Superfriends just teamed up in Miami I figure our chances are pretty slim to win a title, but that chance reduces to zero if Greg leaves in free agency or if he gets hurt and can't perform. So fuck it, you might as well gamble on the chance that he can stay healthy and perform. I said it in another thread, but I'd front load an extension with a signing bonus (if possible) so even though the cap hit would be no different, the actual year over year salary commitment would actually decrease if he had a de-escalating deal, which might insulate the team from some of the risk associated with him. I'd offer 4 years with a partially guaranteed or team option 5th ... and an average salary of 10 million per year.

If there wasn't a looming lockout between the years that he'd be a restricted and unrestricted free agent then I wouldn't hesitate to let him go into restricted free agency, but with the potential for a lost season (and thus no chance to negotiate an extension during that time) -- Oden as an unrestricted free agent doesn't much appeal to me (even with all of the risks).

 

[EGame]

Now I am not up to speed with contract extensions, but isn't there a certain point in the season where there is a deadline and after that passes you can no longer negotiate until the following summer? Perhaps it is October? Anyway, if it is true, perhaps we could base his salary off of his play before the deadline, but if the deadline is early in the season, could be not enough of a sample size.

 

[Minstrel]

Losing him isn't a risk...he's an RFA next year. The risk to not extending him now is that he has a healthy season and a very good one. 80 games, say, at 22-23 PER with excellent defense. Then a team with cap space and the desire to make a splash offers him a max deal. Now you can keep him, but you're extending him at max money. Maybe that's fine, if he has a season like the one I described. But what if he has a season that doesn't totally convince you (60 games played, say) but DOES convince just one team to gamble and offer him a max deal. Do you match?

There is a definite risk to not extending him now. I'm not sure whether Portland should take that risk or not...a lot would depend on internal evaluations of Oden.

 

[EGame]

Losing him isn't a risk...he's an RFA next year. The risk to not extending him now is that he has a healthy season and a very good one. 80 games, say, at 22-23 PER with excellent defense. Then a team with cap space and the desire to make a splash offers him a max deal. Now you can keep him, but you're extending him at max money. Maybe that's fine, if he has a season like the one I described. But what if he has a season that doesn't totally convince you (60 games played, say) but DOES convince just one team to gamble and offer him a max deal. Do you match?

There is a definite risk to not extending him now. I'm not sure whether Portland should take that risk or not...a lot would depend on internal evaluations of Oden.

No the risk is the NBA lockout which means no negotiations go on and the possiblity that he goes from RFA to UFA. I am not sure how it works, but I see people talking about how this is very much a possibility.

 

[Minstrel]

No the risk is the NBA lockout which means no negotiations go on and the possiblity that he goes from RFA to UFA. I am not sure how it works, but I see people talking about how this is very much a possibility.

I suppose that might be true. I keep forgetting about an impending lockout.

 

[jlprk]

And the answer is--extend if he's uninjured by the Nov. 1 deadline. Don't if he's injured again.

 

[mgb]

Extend him for as many years as you can and make how much $$ determine by how much he plays and other incentives.

 

[Mediocre Man]

5 years/50 million. You don't want to lose him!

I agree with this. Take the chance of looking like an ass if he gets hurt again rather than losing him if he doesn't

 

[STOMP]

5 years/50 million. You don't want to lose him!

I'd hope that both sides are talking about an extension. Injury is a part of the game and thankfully none of his should affect his long-term physical ability. Yes there is a concern that he could turn out to be that rare Mr Glass type, but I'd guess it's much more likely that he's just had some bad luck. Signing him at a lessor amount due to these concerns gives the club more opportunity to spend on the rest of the roster. Batum is obviously going to be due a significant raise shortly and hopefully other guys will prove worthy as well

I'd definitely take the gamble on Greg at the figures you suggest

STOMP

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

It may be Oden doesn't want an extension. Maybe he wants a good year under his belt so he can ask for $12,000,000.00 per season.

 

[Nikolokolus]

It may be Oden doesn't want an extension. Maybe he wants a good year under his belt so he can ask for $12,000,000.00 per season.

Keep this thing in mind, there is no way that the league's insurer doesn't put him on the exception list. Anybody who offers him a contract is going to be on the hook for the full amount if he misses more seasons or is forced into early retirement.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Keep this thing in mind, there is no way that the league's insurer doesn't put him on the exception list. Anybody who offers him a contract is going to be on the hook for the full amount if he misses more seasons or is forced into early retirement.

Agreed; even if he plays all 82 games, averages 24/12/4, and takes the team to the WCF, he's still a risk. He'd probably be worth a max deal, but he's still a risk.

 

[maxiep]

After the Superfriends just teamed up in Miami I figure our chances are pretty slim to win a title, but that chance reduces to zero if Greg leaves in free agency or if he gets hurt and can't perform. So fuck it, you might as well gamble on the chance that he can stay healthy and perform. I said it in another thread, but I'd front load an extension with a signing bonus (if possible) so even though the cap hit would be no different, the actual year over year salary commitment would actually decrease if he had a de-escalating deal, which might insulate the team from some of the risk associated with him. I'd offer 4 years with a partially guaranteed or team option 5th ... and an average salary of 10 million per year.

If there wasn't a looming lockout between the years that he'd be a restricted and unrestricted free agent then I wouldn't hesitate to let him go into restricted free agency, but with the potential for a lost season (and thus no chance to negotiate an extension during that time) -- Oden as an unrestricted free agent doesn't much appeal to me (even with all of the risks).

The Bulls front-loaded the contracts of Nocioni and Hinrich, IIRC. It's not a bad strategy if you are facing cap hell.

 

[southnc]

G.O. hasn't earned it yet. Unlike Roy and LA, I wouldn't mind playing the waiting game with Greg.

This.

 

[BGrantFan]

Losing him isn't a risk...he's an RFA next year.

Oden could always gamble and accept the qualifying offer, couldn't he? That would make him an unrestricted free agent, wouldn't it?

 

[Nikolokolus]

G.O. hasn't earned it yet. Unlike Roy and LA, I wouldn't mind playing the waiting game with Greg.

Nope, you wait.

wait

This.

You all are missing the key, there is no wating. With the near guarantee of a long lockout in 2011-2012, Greg goes from "possibility to extend now" straight to "unrestricted free agency" in 2012-2013. It's either extend him now or he's probably going to walk -- and who could blame him after his star crossed run so far in Portland.

We all hate the risk of signing him to a long term deal and then seeing him flame out again with an injury, but you all should hate the idea of losing him for nothing more.

 

[Minstrel]

Oden could always gamble and accept the qualifying offer, couldn't he? That would make him an unrestricted free agent, wouldn't it?

Sure, but that seems extremely unlikely unless he just hated the Blazers, because it would be a massive risk for him. I don't see a lack of immediate extension now creating that sort of hatred.

 

[Ed O]

I love Oden and I want him to be a Blazer another decade, but without knowing what he'd want as an extension, it's tough to say whether it's better to sign him now or wait.

Max deal? Wait.

$8m per for four or five years? Sign him immediately.

Ed O.

 

[Biggie]

He should take a pretty cheap extention you'd think.

 

[Trader Ed]

my opinion is you sign him an take care of bunsiess now. The biggest reason is... if you let it go to a RFA status.. someone like Utah is going to seek revenge for being pissed at us for giving them offer sheets to match in consecutive... and they are going to do it back to us and make the numbers worse for us.

So you do it now and make the numbers to our liking. You also do it now to get GO cheap while he feels he has let us down. You also make it incentive based.

 

[Nikolokolus]

my opinion is you sign him an take care of bunsiess now. The biggest reason is... if you let it go to a RFA status.. someone like Utah is going to seek revenge for being pissed at us for giving them offer sheets to match in consecutive... and they are going to do it back to us and make the numbers worse for us.

So you do it now and make the numbers to our liking. You also do it now to get GO cheap while he feels he has let us down. You also make it incentive based.

I have a few quibbles. It won't be a cash strapped team like the Jazz that offer him a huge RFA offer sheet, it will probably be somebody like Dan Gilbert of the Cavs (Utah could never take the chance that we don't match). Secondly, GO won't be negotiating the contract himself, his agent will. So forget about him taking less money because he "feels bad" his agent doesn't feel badly, he's going to try and get him paid based on his potential and also based on what other big men of his ilk have received. I fully expect Greg to earn at least Andrew Bynum money (5/50 million+)

 

[maxiep]

My question is, do the contracts keep ticking through even though there's a lockout or is the lockout treated as a long offseason?