Greg's extension

[Fez Hammersticks]

He's due for an extension this summer, so, what do you think is fair?

The Pro's:

* 23 PER
* DRtg - 100
* 9 RPG in 24 MPG
* 22 years old

The Bad:

* Misses first 6 weeks at Ohio State with fractured wrist (2006)
* Misses 82 games - Micro Fracture Sugery (2007)
* Misses 21 games (2008)
* Misses 61 games (2009) - Fractured patella
* Is his body made to be a professional athlete?
* High foul rate

 

[Minstrel]

The injury numbers are as scary as the production numbers are fantastic.

Split the difference between $0 (value of a player who doesn't play) and $14 million (value of a healthy center of Oden's production)?

 

[julius]

I'm not sure the "missing 6 weeks" while at THE OSU is really a "bad", since he came back early.

It's a "bad" in the sense it's an injury, but he hasn't had any complications from it.

At this point, he's worth a 3 year extension, maybe 20 million.

 

[crowTrobot]

wouldn't surprise me if we let him go to RFA, given a lockout/new CBA would coincide with that.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I'm not sure the "missing 6 weeks" while at THE OSU is really a "bad", since he came back early.

It's a "bad" in the sense it's an injury, but he hasn't had any complications from it.

At this point, he's worth a 3 year extension, maybe 20 million.

I think it's pretty significant in the fact that the last time he played without injury was during a 20-game season as an 18 year old HS senior. Do you invest a lot of money based purely on potential? With his fragile body I'd probably let him go into restricted free agency and make him earn his next contract.

 

[RoyToy]

At some point during a season Oden is going to get injured or need rest, it just happens. Everyone in the NBA gets injured, especially when you're a physical player like Greg. As long as he can get 65-70 games a year in I'll be happy.

 

[Draco]

I'd pay up to 8 million a year, if he wants more than that he can wait until RFA.

 

[THE HCP]

I thought this thread was about another picture of his cock! On the real, I think you have to pay him $10M a year on potential alone.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Unless he is willing to accept a team friendly deal, I would let him go the RFA route.

Letting Oden leave as a FA would make Portland a laughing stock....but it would be better than overpaying him to stay. PA, KP, et al may have to swallow their pride and do what is best for the team.

 

[alex42083]

No way the Blazers pay him $10 mil a year, and nor should G.O. think he should be in a position to be demanding that much IMO.

 

[Nikolokolus]

What's worse, risking letting him go into restricted free agency next year and some team throws a lot of money at him forcing you to match or let him walk, or overpaying him when he hasn't demonstrated an ability to stay on the court for more than 1/3 of the time and even then he only manged to average around 24 minutes per game because of foul trouble? I do know that he's certainly not worth a max contract at this point, but his potential probably does catapult him into the 8-10 million per year range even with the health concerns.

I dunno, it seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition ... I'd probably offer him a 3 year extension at 10 million per year or an 8 million/year extension for more guaranteed years (like 5) and see if he bites. My guess is that he and his agent will never go for that and will instead want him to have one monster year to prove that he's worth more on the open market.

My best guess? He comes back, stays "reasonably" healhty, goes into restricted free agency where some team will offer him a 9-10 million/year deal for 4 years and the Blazers will match.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

Yeah I gotta say when I saw the thread title I wasn't thinking about his contract.

 

[julius]

I don't know what they'll end up doing, but whatever it is, Bill Simmons and people in the media (and here) will complain about it.

If it's 3 years and 20 million, it's too much...if it's 2 years and 15? It's not long enough and he'll leave because he got short-changed.

If it's 4 years and 30 million? It's too long, too much and he's an anchor!

 

[Todd]

I wouldn't give him anything until he proves he can show up and play consistently.

 

[RoyToy]

I don't know what they'll end up doing, but whatever it is, Bill Simmons and people in the media (and here) will complain about it.

If it's 3 years and 20 million, it's too much...if it's 2 years and 15? It's not long enough and he'll leave because he got short-changed.

If it's 4 years and 30 million? It's too long, too much and he's an anchor!

3yr/20M would be perfect in my opinion. So perfect I may call it a best case scenario.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

This video kinda sums up the tough decision you have to make on the money/length of his contract.

Before the injury he was developing into an elite center. He was playing great and even making people somewhat forget Kevin Durant, and then *BAM* you lose him again to injury.

[video=youtube;h3VCcwqsi5M]

 

[BlazerCaravan]

What's the deadline for extending before he's definitely going to be an RFA? November 1?

It's a tough decision, but I think the Blazers will offer something like this (salaries are approx):

Years 1-3: guaranteed (7m, 7.5m, 8m)
Year 4: team option (8.5m)
Year 5: player option (9m)

Likely incentives worth $3m per year
Unlikely incentives worth $3m per year

Maximum contract: 5 years/$70m
Minimum contract: 3 years/$22.5m
Likely contract: 4 years/$43m

Whether Oden accepts this is his choice, but his injuries have given Portland a great position to negotiate from. I also happen to think Oden will prove to be worth it over time.

 

[alex42083]

That video just makes me even more depressed after what could have been this season with a healthy Greg. UGH.

That fast break against Minnesota with G.O. and LA running the break together was just a thing of beauty.

And that game against Chicago where Roy, LA and Greg each had 20 points and epitomized what we expected out of our Big 3, and playing well together ..... UGH, that's frustrating to have another wasted season without G.O.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

And that game against Chicago where Roy, LA and Greg each had 20 points and epitomized what we expected out of our Big 3, and playing well together

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200911230POR.html

Roy: 18 points/7 assists
LMA: 24 points/12 rebounds
Oden: 24 points/12 rebounds

That game was awesome. I've listened to it several times now, and it is just fun beyond fun.

 

[julius]

man that video was both exciting and depressing.

 

[THE HCP]

man that video was both exciting and depressing.

I feel the same mid-way through having dirty pirate hooker style sex with your mom!

 

[THE HCP]

Ya that game early at Minny was great! He showed what he was capable of. Don't even know what his final stats were, but he was a blast to watch!

 

[Wheels]

wtf that end part of the video wasnt necessary!

 

[julius]

I feel the same mid-way through having dirty pirate hooker style sex with your mom!

normally she says you start crying mid-way through it.

 

[Natebishop3]

I would do a three or four year deal at around 8 million per season.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I would do a three or four year deal at around 8 million per season.

I'd consider it a small investment for a high risk/very high reward player.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

In Greg's case I think the team has to seriously consider letting him play without an extension this year and letting him get to RFA. I usually think it is better to lock a player up earlier rather than potentially getting into a bidding war, but the injuries are just too scary.

 

[BGrantFan]

At some point during a season Oden is going to get injured or need rest, it just happens. Everyone in the NBA gets injured, especially when you're a physical player like Greg. As long as he can get 65-70 games a year in I'll be happy.

He has yet to reach 65 games in a season on his rookie contract. Now what?

 

[Nikolokolus]

In Greg's case I think the team has to seriously consider letting him play without an extension this year and letting him get to RFA. I usually think it is better to lock a player up earlier rather than potentially getting into a bidding war, but the injuries are just too scary.

I just had a funny thought (more 'oh shit' less 'haha') with the looming lockout, if Greg is a restricted free agent during the year the league shut down, he wouldn't necessarily be a restricted free agent coming back in the summer of 2012, he'd be unrestricted.

The Blazers may have to lock him up unless they think they can live with an unrestricted Greg Oden.

 

[Sug]

5 years 60 mil with the first 3 years being 30 mil based on games played bench marks, the last two years being 15mil a season with no clauses for games played.