Guess who's leading the league in mid-range jumpers?

[magnifier661]

Woah wait a minute Brian!!! We had this mid range argument last season. We pulled love, ibaka and a few others you mentioned and they do not shoot the 16-23 better than Aldridge. I want to see this proof to this claim of yours

 

[Pinwheel1]

Y
LMA shooting the jumper is taking away from someone else shooting somewhere else on a more efficient shot, or himself shooting from a better place on the floor.

You are assuming that his teammates or himself can always get a better shot. That is a big IF.
In the past our offense was so pathetic and predictable that getting a quality shot was few and far between.

We will see what happens this year. The last two games gives me hope because how well the ball movement has been. If it continues you can throw out the stats from previous years, and just focus on this year since they are the only stats that matter. I am guessing if teams have to focus more on Wes, Nic, and Damian, Mo and Wright.....LMA will get better shots.

But seriously you can't see with your own eyes that LMA is a good mid range shooter? When everyone else in the NBA thinks differently you are going to disagree because of moneyball? I respect your opinion a lot. Just not when it comes to LMA. Which is fine, I don't need to agree with everyone.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm pretty sure I won that one also.
Here's LMA 16-23 feet. Last year was 41.8%.

link to last year's league-wide 16-23'. LMA was #49, behind (among others):
Kaman, Bosh, Dirk, Gasol, Speights, West, Ibaka, KG, Anderson, Arthur, Scola, Nicholson, Bass, LeBron, Jared Dudley, Boozer, Durant, Duncan, Melo, Millsap, Vucevic, Horford and Lee.

Love is a career 39%, but since he has some 3's from that range his eFG% is higher. (I don't know how to pull out 3's from the corner, which are inside 23', from the stats. If someone else does, let me know).

 

[Jayps15]

Woah wait a minute Brian!!! We had this mid range argument last season. We pulled love, ibaka and a few others you mentioned and they do not shoot the 16-23 better than Aldridge. I want to see this proof to this claim of yours

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/ibakase01/shooting/2013/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01/shooting/2013/

Here's Ibaka and Aldridge from last year, 44.7% for Ibaka, 3% better than Aldridge.

Love on the other hand is not as good as Aldridge from 16-23, only shoots about 38.5%. But if you include 3's his efficiency dwarfs Aldridge's, at an eFG% of 54.2% and 49.6% the last 2 years he was healthy on everything beyond 16ft, he's producing way more pts on jumpers.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm pretty sure I won that one also.
Here's LMA 16-23 feet. Last year was 41.8%.

link to last year's league-wide 16-23'. LMA was #49, behind (among others):
Kaman, Bosh, Dirk, Gasol, Speights, West, Ibaka, KG, Anderson, Arthur, Scola, Nicholson, Bass, LeBron, Jared Dudley, Boozer, Durant, Duncan, Melo, Millsap, Vucevic, Horford and Lee.

Love is a career 39%, but since he has some 3's from that range his eFG% is higher. (I don't know how to pull out 3's from the corner, which are inside 23', from the stats. If someone else does, let me know).

Last season was definitely an anomaly and you know it. He was injured the good first quarter of the season, stotts wanted a dirk and we had no bench. Would you mind showing me the year before when we actually had a bench? Maybe post career numbers?

 

[BrianFromWA]

But seriously you can't see with your own eyes that LMA is a good mid range shooter? When everyone else in the NBA thinks differently you are going to disagree because of moneyball? I respect your opinion a lot. Just not when it comes to LMA. Which is fine, I don't need to agree with everyone.

I once sat at courtside and watched Sergio Rodriguez go 23-for-25 in his pre-game warmups, right after the media had made a big deal that he worked with a shooting coach. But in the games, the results didn't bear that out.

I'm not relying on eyeballs (as I've already said, I haven't been able to watch a game for a year). I'm looking at results. And the results of LMA shooting 16-23' shots is the exact same result as DeAndre Jordan shooting FTs or Josh Smith shooting 3's. Now, I'm not saying he shouldn't take one ever again. I'm not even saying that if he can get his percentages up like Dirk's/Gasol's/Bosh's that it wouldn't be a really nice tool to use. Right now, whether he has the purest form, the most unblockable shot, the vision to see over defenders--whatever--the results are that, since he's shooting like Dirk, it's a good deal. If he ever starts shooting like LaMarcus Aldridge, then it's a detriment to the team.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Last season was definitely an anomaly and you know it. He was injured the good first quarter of the season, stotts wanted a dirk and we had no bench. Would you mind showing me the year before when we actually had a bench? Maybe post career numbers?

The first link had every year in his career. Post 22 spelled it out in number form.

 

[magnifier661]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/ibakase01/shooting/2013/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01/shooting/2013/

Here's Ibaka and Aldridge from last year, 44.7% for Ibaka, 3% better than Aldridge.

Love on the other hand is not as good as Aldridge from 16-23, only shoots about 38.5%. But if you include 3's his efficiency dwarfs Aldridge's, at an eFG% of 54.2% and 49.6% the last 2 years he was healthy on everything beyond 16ft, he's producing way more pts on jumpers.

Like I said, last year was the anomaly. There were more variables to discount. So far this year, he isn't taking them at the rate he was last season.

 

[magnifier661]

When I click the link it only says 2012-13

 

[Natebishop3]

I once sat at courtside and watched Sergio Rodriguez go 23-for-25 in his pre-game warmups, right after the media had made a big deal that he worked with a shooting coach. But in the games, the results didn't bear that out.

I'm not relying on eyeballs (as I've already said, I haven't been able to watch a game for a year). I'm looking at results. And the results of LMA shooting 16-23' shots is the exact same result as DeAndre Jordan shooting FTs or Josh Smith shooting 3's. Now, I'm not saying he shouldn't take one ever again. I'm not even saying that if he can get his percentages up like Dirk's/Gasol's/Bosh's that it wouldn't be a really nice tool to use. Right now, whether he has the purest form, the most unblockable shot, the vision to see over defenders--whatever--the results are that, since he's shooting like Dirk, it's a good deal. If he ever starts shooting like LaMarcus Aldridge, then it's a detriment to the team.

I used to watch Telfair do the same thing. It's amazing what they can do in practice, and yet never see it manifest on the floor. Personally, I attribute it to confidence. I remember watching Telfair brick threes, but he'd take one step inside the line and suddenly he could make the shot. Never understood that.

 

[BrianFromWA]

here ya go, mags. Copy-paste fail on my part.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...e&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg

 

[magnifier661]

So it seems he could become a solid 43%, with the exception of last season when it was an anomaly. I suspect that increasing this season as well. That is Duncan's range. Right now he's over 50%. If that stays at that rate, will you change your tune?

 

[Pinwheel1]

I'm looking at results. And the results of LMA shooting 16-23' shots is the exact same result as DeAndre Jordan shooting FTs or Josh Smith shooting 3's. Now, I'm not saying he shouldn't take one ever again. I'm not even saying that if he can get his percentages up like Dirk's/Gasol's/Bosh's that it wouldn't be a really nice tool to use. Right now, whether he has the purest form, the most unblockable shot, the vision to see over defenders--whatever--the results are that, since he's shooting like Dirk, it's a good deal. If he ever starts shooting like LaMarcus Aldridge, then it's a detriment to the team.

Is 16'-23' really what is considered mid range? I would consider a mid range to be closer 12-18. Rarely does LA shoot over 20'. Maybe 1 per game.

As far as a detriment to the team.....in past years I don't think he had much choice. Just like I don't think Lillard had much choice last year when he was launching from everywhere. The offensive strategy was much to be desired. LA is not selfish. If there are better opportunities for the team to score, then IMO he is the type of player who will defer. (Like he did with Roy)

 

[BrianFromWA]

So it seems he could become a solid 43%, with the exception of last season when it was an anomaly. I suspect that increasing this season as well. That is Duncan's range. Right now he's over 50%. If that stays at that rate, will you change your tune?

Read posts 22 and 36 again. He's never shot 43%, but if you want to project that, sure, I'll buy. That's still very, very low efficiency. So now you're talking about Shaq shooting FTs instead of DeAndre Jordan. (You're actually still talking about Josh Smith shooting 3's).

If he can maintain 53%, that's a quality shot. I still don't know that you should shoot 8 a game, with the quality shooters we have, but it's not nearly as disastrous as shooting 42% (as he has the rest of his career).

 

[Strenuus]

So it seems he could become a solid 43%, with the exception of last season when it was an anomaly. I suspect that increasing this season as well. That is Duncan's range. Right now he's over 50%. If that stays at that rate, will you change your tune?

Damn. over 50% for an entire season? That's asking a lot to jump up 7% from his average. I hope he can... but damn. lol.

 

[Jayps15]

So it seems he could become a solid 43%, with the exception of last season when it was an anomaly. I suspect that increasing this season as well. That is Duncan's range. Right now he's over 50%. If that stays at that rate, will you change your tune?

His career average is 41.5%, if he can keep shooting 10% above that like has the first 3 games then yea that obviously changes the whole conversation. But that's a massive leap, and using a 3 game sample to predict it is pretty suspect.

 

[Jayps15]

Is 16'-23' really what is considered mid range? I would consider a mid range to be closer 12-18. Rarely does LA shoot over 20'. Maybe 1 per game.

As far as a detriment to the team.....in past years I don't think he had much choice. Just like I don't think Lillard had much choice last year when he was launching from everywhere. The offensive strategy was much to be desired. LA is not selfish. If there are better opportunities for the team to score, then IMO he is the type of player who will defer. (Like he did with Roy)

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg#stats::none

Aldridge 12-18ft= 41.2% for his overall career, 43% last season

Not much better than 16-23ft

 

[Pinwheel1]

His career average is 41.5%, if he can keep shooting 10% above that like has the first 3 games then yea that obviously changes the whole conversation. But that's a massive leap, and using a 3 game sample to predict it is pretty suspect.

You know there will be some games where the offense is just not working. And LMA and Damian will be forced to shoot some desperation jumpers because there are no other options. These games will hurt their stats. But being the "man" they have no choice. (Unlike Bosh)

 

[Draco]

You are assuming that his teammates or himself can always get a better shot. That is a big IF.
In the past our offense was so pathetic and predictable that getting a quality shot was few and far between.

Yeah I agree with this. Brian said he doesn't watch any games so he needs a disclaimer on his stat analysis. LaMarcus has shot a lot of midrange shots over the years because there is no better option. I mean if a guy is shooting 85% on dunks that is great but you can't have him just run down and attempt a dunk every possession at that rate.

LaMarcus has taken many long 2 point shots, these are not all in identical situations. Sometimes they are late in the shot clock, or at the end of a period, when the offense is struggling or the team has no better options, the defense is playing very tight coverage. Alternatively sometimes LaMarcus is wide open, he is more rested, he has time to get properly set. So its not some concrete situation that at all times he always shoots 40% from this distance. Those attempts all appear identical in advanced stats but they are composed of a collection of varying quality attempts. The poorest attempts he might hit only 25% of the time. The best attempts from the inner edge of this range he might hit 65% of the time.

So what are the alternatives to LaMarcus' attempt? If it is with 3 second on the clock there may not be a better option than his poor look, so he should take that 25% shot. It will lower his advanced stats but it was the best shot the team had left. 0.5 points per possesion is higher than 0.0. Earlier in the clock he should be more selective with the shot, and see if they can get a more efficient play first. But if the team is half way through the shot clock and LaMarcus has an open look he should most definitely consider taking it.

 

[Pinwheel1]

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg#stats::none

Aldridge 12-18ft= 41.2% for his overall career, 43% last season

Not much better than 16-23ft

43% is not that bad considering his minutes, the bench, and the offense last year. I would be fine with 45% this year. You have to remember that he and Lillard will often get stuck with the ball at the end of the shot clock and forced to shoot....lowering their numbers.

But it still comes down to what is the alternative? Where are the "better" shots going to come from?

 

[BrianFromWA]

(Edit: I'm just going to re-do this whole post...jayps15 pointed out that I was using the wrong numbers. I am sometimes a large idiot)

 

[BrianFromWA]

For those that think I'm making all this up, or just want to hear someone explain it better than I've been, here's a decent read. I don't ascribe greatness and genius to random bloggers, generally, but this guy quotes a lot of coaches, stats, and analysts.

http://www.krossover.com/blog/2012/10/death-of-the-mid-range-jumper-statistically-speaking/

 

[Draco]

I've said I think he should reduce some of them, but the thing is whats the alternative? Last year it was more shots for guys like Babbitt. This year can Stotts create superior looks in the flow of the offense?

But I have a hard time respecting any analyst who watches 0% of the games. Its just as bad as someone who says all stats are meaningless. How can you have over 13k posts about a team but never watch them?

People who watch the games have seen LaMarcus drilling open midrange shots like they are layups. When he is getting those types of looks they are a very high quality shot.

 

[BrianFromWA]

But I have a hard time respecting any analyst who watches 0% of the games. Its just as bad as someone who says all stats are meaningless. How can you have over 13k posts about a team but never watch them?

I haven't been able to watch them since I've been deployed to a place that doesn't get TV. Before that, I'd watched just about every minute of LMA's career, and many games multiple times.

 

[Pinwheel1]

"St. Louis Coach Rick Majerus said “the midrange game is not part of college basketball anymore. It’s the long ball, the layup and then there’s very little in between.”

I do think the 3 pt shot is a better shot for those players whose feet are set. Lots of times they just run to a spot and wait for the pass.

Where as mid range shots are more likely to be off the dribble, which most players today suck at compared to the past. (Remember how bad Rudy was at that shot?)

But big guys like LA are not shooting off the dribble. (Well maybe one dribble) So it should be easier for them to make. You need someone shooting them. You have to spread the floor. Someone will be out there in no mans land. (15-18') It seems like for us, that man is our PF. LA can make it well enough, Robinson can not.

 

[BrianFromWA]

"St. Louis Coach Rick Majerus said “the midrange game is not part of college basketball anymore. It’s the long ball, the layup and then there’s very little in between.”

I do think the 3 pt shot is a better shot for those players whose feet are set. Lots of times they just run to a spot and wait for the pass.

Where as mid range shots are more likely to be off the dribble, which most players today suck at compared to the past. (Remember how bad Rudy was at that shot?)

But big guys like LA are not shooting off the dribble. (Well maybe one dribble) So it should be easier for them to make. You need someone shooting them. You have to spread the floor. Someone will be out there in no mans land. (15-18') It seems like for us, that man is our PF. LA can make it well enough, Robinson can not.

Who's doing that for OKC? (I won't bring up MIA, b/c LeBron is LeBron, with all apologies to Deron Williams). For SAS? Duncan takes about 1/3 as many of those shots as LMA, and they do pretty well. GSW? MEM does, but Gasol takes about half as many as LMA and shoots about 10% better. KG shoots about half as many as LMA, for a better %. Even K*be and Pau don't shoot as many as LMA.

What are you basing the "need for the mid-range" off of?

Edit: 68% of LMA's makes from 12-23' are assisted, which means that 1/3 of the time his feet aren't "set", or is "off the dribble."

 

[Pinwheel1]

Who's doing that for OKC? (I won't bring up MIA, b/c LeBron is LeBron, with all apologies to Deron Williams). For SAS? Duncan takes about 1/3 as many of those shots as LMA, and they do pretty well. GSW? MEM does, but Gasol takes about half as many as LMA and shoots about 10% better. KG shoots about half as many as LMA, for a better %. Even K*be and Pau don't shoot as many as LMA.

What are you basing the "need for the mid-range" off of?

Are you saying Durant doesn't take long jumpers? That would surprise me.

I am basing the "need" on the fact that most teams have two guys at the 3 pt line, one guy down low, and one in the high post. (Plus the PG) The high post player positioned 15 -18 feet from the basket setting screens is often left wide open after setting the pick for the PG.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm saying that Durant took 3.6 16-23' jumpers per game. LMA took 6.9.

I don't have stats at my fingertips for "needs", but in my experience/watching our team is one of the few in the league that relies almost exclusively on the -and-pop instead of the -and-roll. Even the ones who do (DAL with Dirk, MEM with Z-bo and Gasol, BOS w/KG, MIA w/Bosh) run less than half as many long jumpers-after-picks than we do, and with players who shoot a much higher percentage doing so.

 

[Draco]

Sucks you cant watch the games.

We had an efficient offense last year and it was centered on LaMarcus with a large part of his game being midrange shots. One thing is lots of those players you list that get higher % shots have far more turnovers. LaMarcus has very few for his usage rate. So when he shoots a lower % the possession results in points just as often.

It all really comes down to if LaMarcus is not taking these shots what is the alternative? I've seen Wesley try to force drives and those do not work well. Batum struggles crating his own shot. Its one thing to take a wide open jumper that Ibaka is taking at a low usage rate because Durant is double teamed. Its an entirely different shot when LaMarcus has to create it on his own. With more talented teammates and an improved Lillard I'm hoping the team can find more efficient shots for everybody this season. Some of these will be 3's or dunks, but some will be long two's if LaMarcus is open.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You're kind of getting to the crux of the argument. I'm not one who's saying LMA is lazy or cowardly or whatever pejorative someone wants to use. And I'm not saying that he sux and needs to be traded. What I'm saying is that the success he's had so far shooting the 16-23' shot over the last 3 games seems (based upon the other 488 games in his career) to be unsustainable. If he's shooting 53%, then it's a good and efficient shot for the offense and helps the team win. If he's shooting his career average of 41.5% on those same shots, then it's a hindrance and I'd rather have Wes/Batum/Lillard shoot contested 3's, because even at 28% make they're doing more for the offense than LMA is.

However, if he's on the low block, then he's enough of a force (as seen during the all-NBA LaMonster season of 2010-11) to either dominate whoever's guarding him one-on-one or to open the floor for our great 3pt shooters. When LMA plays PF, he has a PER advantage of about 3. At center, he destroyed his opponents with a PER advantage of 15. I know that it's not apples-to-apples, but there is ample evidence that good things happen when LMA plays closer to the basket. There is also ample evidence that being the league leader (by far) in 10-23' shots that are only going in at a 42% rate is inefficient and doesn't help the offense.

For whatever it might have been since Nate was fired, the best option on offense is no longer LMA shooting jumpers with lots of time on the clock. Whether it's a pick-and-roll, or a double-screen, or Wes or Nic coming off of curls, or cutters to the basket fed from the high post, or corner 3's set up by big men getting double-teamed--there's more than enough talent on offense to not rely on LMA taking 70% of his shots from 16-23'.