Guess who's leading the league in mid-range jumpers?

[Draco]

LaMonster had Camby and Andre Miller feeding him passes for easy looks. We don't have anyone with those passing abilities any more. I'd like to see Aldridge in the post but to do that he probably needs to play fewer minutes and have other big men assisting him on defense. The LaMonster year he was totally worn out before the playoffs even started. I suspect he realized he pushed himself too hard during that season.

 

[Pinwheel1]

LaMonster had Camby and Andre Miller feeding him passes for easy looks. We don't have anyone with those passing abilities any more. I'd like to see Aldridge in the post but to do that he probably needs to play fewer minutes and have other big men assisting him on defense. The LaMonster year he was totally worn out before the playoffs even started. I suspect he realized he pushed himself too hard during that season.

It was nice to see Batum feed LA last game for a monster jam. Can't remember if it was a fast break or in the half court, but you are right..... he needs more.

 

[magnifier661]

It was nice to see Batum feed LA last game for a monster jam. Can't remember if it was a fast break or in the half court, but you are right..... he needs more.

Are you talking about that alley oop? If yes, that was a sick play. I'm actually liking this point forward nic. I maybe wrong with how I responded to Nate's comment about nick averaging 10 points, 8 boards and 10 assists.

 

[magnifier661]

http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking...Field=EFG_PCT&sortOrder=DES&filters=MIN*GE*30

Seems like Aldridge is 11th in the entire league for players with +30 min per game at eFG%.

Most above him are other bigs, but most of them are scoring 0-10ft from the basket. I think if Aldridge works down low more, that number will increase. Hopefully that happens soon.

 

[blue9]

LOL at people arguing with BFW's fact-based assertion that LMA (a) take the highest number of inefficient shots in the league and (b) isn't as good at them as his reputation would suggest. We've both gone over this several times over the years, and yet people still would rather not believe facts.
I'm glad that he's currently playing well, but I expect that he'll regress to his averages as the season plays out. Currently he's averaging ~25ppg, but only ~5 points in the paint. That sort of play will never get us close to a championship.

 

[e_blazer]

So based on Brian's analysis, I think that the Blazers should just shoot layups. They can probably hit them at a better than 90% rate. Pretty damned efficient if you ask me.

Seems to me that an effective offense works well if it has a combination of points in the paint, 3-pointers, and mid-range shots. When you've got all three, a defense can't possibly cover all of them. LaMarcus is the Blazers best player in the mid-range game, so it make sense that he's the guy who fills that role. Do you think that Lopez scores 12 points or that Damian, Nic & Wes all get to the hoop as often if LA is camped under the basket because that's the most efficient shot for him? Right now, 3 games into the season, LA is hitting the mid-range shot better than at any point in his career. Could be because he's fresh at the start of the season and his legs aren't fatigued. Could be because he's just on a hot streak. Could also be because he's now got enough quality scorers around him at all points in the game that opposing teams pay a price if they try to double him. Whatever the reason, he's hitting them at better than a 50% clip and he shouldn't change a damned thing until he stops hitting at that pace.

Geez, the Blazers just beat the defending Western Conference champs and the Nuggets in Denver, where we never fricking win. Seems like we could leave a little bit of the carping until they lose a couple?

 

[magnifier661]

LMA also has 6.3 passes for scoring opportunities per game. The efficiency for this opportunity is over 50%, since he is averaging 3.3 assists per game. That means when he passes out of the double, he is usually finding the "wide open" man.

 

[magnifier661]

So based on Brian's analysis, I think that the Blazers should just shoot layups. They can probably hit them at a better than 90% rate. Pretty damned efficient if you ask me.

Seems to me that an effective offense works well if it has a combination of points in the paint, 3-pointers, and mid-range shots. When you've got all three, a defense can't possibly cover all of them. LaMarcus is the Blazers best player in the mid-range game, so it make sense that he's the guy who fills that role. Do you think that Lopez scores 12 points or that Damian, Nic & Wes all get to the hoop as often if LA is camped under the basket because that's the most efficient shot for him? Right now, 3 games into the season, LA is hitting the mid-range shot better than at any point in his career. Could be because he's fresh at the start of the season and his legs aren't fatigued. Could be because he's just on a hot streak. Could also be because he's now got enough quality scorers around him at all points in the game that opposing teams pay a price if they try to double him. Whatever the reason, he's hitting them at better than a 50% clip and he shouldn't change a damned thing until he stops hitting at that pace.

Geez, the Blazers just beat the defending Western Conference champs and the Nuggets in Denver, where we never fricking win. Seems like we could leave a little bit of the carping until they lose a couple?

If Aldridge hits them at a 45% rate by season's end, it will be a dangerous weapon. He is passing very well out of the doubles too; which gives him the 3 point shooters and cutters to the basket for easy scores.

 

[Draco]

LOL at people arguing with BFW's fact-based assertion that LMA (a) take the highest number of inefficient shots in the league and (b) isn't as good at them as his reputation would suggest. We've both gone over this several times over the years, and yet people still would rather not believe facts.
I'm glad that he's currently playing well, but I expect that he'll regress to his averages as the season plays out. Currently he's averaging ~25ppg, but only ~5 points in the paint. That sort of play will never get us close to a championship.

LOL at a bunch of random fans on the internet thinking they have some blatantly simple solution to make LA more effective. The coach and player are paid millions of dollars a year and have a team of assistants plus video replay and statistical analysts working full time to find ways to improve the team. If all they had to do was have LaMarcus get closer to the hoop for the team to be vastly superior they’d do it.

Do you really think Stotts and LA are that stupid or incompetent?

 

[magnifier661]

LOL at a bunch of random fans on the internet thinking they have some blatantly simple solution to make LA more effective. The coach and player are paid millions of dollars a year and have a team of assistants plus video replay and statistical analysts working full time to find ways to improve the team. If all they had to do was have LaMarcus get closer to the hoop for the team to be vastly superior they’d do it.

Do you really think Stotts and LA are that stupid or incompetent?

If you haven't been paying attention, he has… blue9 has it out for Aldridge. He is basically the Roytoy (vs. Batum) of LMA.

 

[blue9]

LaMarcus is the Blazers best player in the mid-range game, so it make sense that he's the guy who fills that role.

Through the first three games, that's true. But historically it's not. Last season he was our 3rd best shooter from that range, behind Lillard and...wait for it...Hickson: http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=POR&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=0
He is an okay shooter from that range. But aside from it being an ineffective shot, it also hurts because he's not drawing fouls on the opposition. By not drawing fouls we as a team aren't shooting as many foul shots as we could be, and defenses can play tighter defense throughout the entire games because they're not in the penalty.

He shouldn't go away from the shot entirely - but he shouldn't be making his living out there either. Back in the summer I remember having this conversation and the consensus seemed to be that he should redistribute his shot selection so that 2 more were in the paint and 1-2 were one step back behind the 3-point line. This was based on him taking 7+ shots from that range the previous season. And now we're seeing the exact opposite of what many of us thought he should do - more than doubling his shot attempts from the least effective spot on the floor!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Aldridge needs to shoot less jumpers. History has shown his shooting % will go down significantly as the season goes on. it's great that he has the ability to make that shot, but going down low for a higher % shot that may also result in FTA's is much better for the team.

 

[blue9]

If you haven't been paying attention, he has… blue9 has it out for Aldridge. He is basically the Roytoy (vs. Batum) of LMA.

STFU, mags. There is reason and stats to back up my opinions, not pure emotion.

 

[magnifier661]

Aldridge needs to shoot less jumpers. History has shown his shooting % will go down significantly as the season goes on. it's great that he has the ability to make that shot, but going down low for a higher % shot that may also result in FTA's is much better for the team.

As much as I agree with you, I don't think we will see as much of a drop in production as the season progresses this year. He looks healthy (knock on wood), has a bench (less minutes), and Lillard is demanding even more attention (Not as much pressure on him to score). Regardless, I do believe he needs to be in the paint more. I would like him to demand that the refs give him respect and force them to call fouls. If he's only down there 1/4 of the time, the refs can't always see them. If he's down there 60% of the time, they will see more action and learn how teams are fouling him.

 

[magnifier661]

STFU, mags. There is reason and stats to back up my opinions, not pure emotion.

Well, we are using this season's stats. Try and follow along.

If you really want to jump on the "past season's stats" you should look at win/share. When Aldridge isn't in the game, they are a terrible team. That's a fact.

 

[Draco]

Aldridge needs to shoot less jumpers. History has shown his shooting % will go down significantly as the season goes on. it's great that he has the ability to make that shot, but going down low for a higher % shot that may also result in FTA's is much better for the team.

I think it’s more important to reduce Aldridges minutes than worry about where he is taking shots right now. When any player gets fatigued they doesn’t shoot the jumper as well. When he conserves his energy his defense suffers, his rebounding suffers, and he can’t play as much in the low post. Getting a high percentage shot close to the hoop requires a lot more effort than taking a 20 foot jumper. I’m pretty concerned about TRob, he has not been an acceptable backup PF thus far and if we don’t find a decent options Stotts might not be able to get LA the rest that would keep him fresh.

 

[magnifier661]

I think it’s more important to reduce Aldridges minutes than worry about where he is taking shots right now. When any player gets fatigued they doesn’t shoot the jumper as well. When he conserves his energy his defense suffers, his rebounding suffers, and he can’t play as much in the low post. Getting a high percentage shot close to the hoop requires a lot more effort than taking a 20 foot jumper. I’m pretty concerned about TRob, he has not been an acceptable backup PF thus far and if we don’t find a decent options Stotts might not be able to get LA the rest that would keep him fresh.

I think T. Rob will come around. Remember in practice, he will be facing Aldridge. The more he keeps playing against one of the best PF's in the game, the more polished his game will become.

 

[Rhal]

Aldridge shoots to many jump shots this is true but an open shot is a good shot especially if it is coming in the bottom third of the shot clock. I don't like LA taking that mid range shot, that seems to be always open, at the beginning of the shot clock but when its getting to 8s and lower then the likelihood of finding someone else open drops significantly and at that time you want to just find a good look and as "inefficient" as that shot is its an open shot and if you pass up open shots late in the shot clock then your going to be taking contested jumpers which are a worse shot then an open mid-range jumper.
I'm wondering if someone can pull up LA's mid-range shot chart that is sorted by how much time was left on the shot clock when he took the shot. I'd like to see what % of his Mid-range shots came within the last 3 seconds of the shot clock the last two years. I'm thinking a decent percentage, 20% maybe, came from a desperate shot at the end of the clock.

 

[Draco]

I think T. Rob will come around. Remember in practice, he will be facing Aldridge. The more he keeps playing against one of the best PF's in the game, the more polished his game will become.

I might experiment giving Meyers Leonard time as LaMarcus’ backup. Let TRob and Freeland get time as Lopez backup. Meyers is the only big that has similar shooting skills to LaMarcus. The offense could be ran the same.

 

[magnifier661]

I might experiment giving Meyers Leonard time as LaMarcus’ backup. Let TRob and Freeland get time as Lopez backup. Meyers is the only big that has similar shooting skills to LaMarcus. The offense could be ran the same.

I wouldn't mind that either, but I really want Leonard to be a true center. I want him to strive to be that inside presence. Possibly sitting on the bench will drive him to work on that facet of his game.

 

[noknobs]

Through the first three games, that's true. But historically it's not. Last season he was our 3rd best shooter from that range, behind Lillard and...wait for it...Hickson: http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=POR&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=0
He is an okay shooter from that range. But aside from it being an ineffective shot, it also hurts because he's not drawing fouls on the opposition. By not drawing fouls we as a team aren't shooting as many foul shots as we could be, and defenses can play tighter defense throughout the entire games because they're not in the penalty.

He shouldn't go away from the shot entirely - but he shouldn't be making his living out there either. Back in the summer I remember having this conversation and the consensus seemed to be that he should redistribute his shot selection so that 2 more were in the paint and 1-2 were one step back behind the 3-point line. This was based on him taking 7+ shots from that range the previous season. And now we're seeing the exact opposite of what many of us thought he should do - more than doubling his shot attempts from the least effective spot on the floor!

I think simply looking at FG% from 16-23 feet and using that as your template for determining how good someone is, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Because if that's the only criteria, that would mean Babitt was our best finisher at the rim last year. Do you really believe that? It would also mean Claver and Pavlovic were the best on our team from 10-15 ft.

Anyone who watches knows that Aldridge is a better outside shooter than Hickson. Aldridge is often having to create his own shot, while Hickson's usually just shooting that shot when he's set up by a teammate and wide open and/or squared to the basket.

You make a valid point about not drawing fouls but the flipside is he draws their bigs outside which helps his teammates when they move the ball and space the floor. I'd love to see Aldridge go inside more because he's so good at it, but I think at this point he is what he is. And what he is is a two-time (and counting) all-star.

Yes it's a sample size of three this year, so I'm not sure why you think the fact he's doubled his shot attempts from that area will last over the whole year. Or do you only use that argument when it benefits you? Aldridge was hot, he knew it, so he kept going to that shot. I imagine, on a night he goes cold from outside, he'll make more of a concerted effort to go inside. Quit looking at a single raw statistic and WATCH THE GAME.

 

[magnifier661]

I think simply looking at FG% from 16-23 feet and using that as your template for determining how good someone is, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Because if that's the only criteria, that would mean Babitt was our best finisher at the rim last year. Do you really believe that? It would also mean Claver and Pavlovic were the best on our team from 10-15 ft.

Anyone who watches knows that Aldridge is a better outside shooter than Hickson. Aldridge is often having to create his own shot, while Hickson's usually just shooting that shot when he's set up by a teammate and wide open and/or squared to the basket.

You make a valid point about not drawing fouls but the flipside is he draws their bigs outside which helps his teammates when they move the ball and space the floor. I'd love to see Aldridge go inside more because he's so good at it, but I think at this point he is what he is. And what he is is a two-time (and counting) all-star.

Yes it's a sample size of three this year, so I'm not sure why you think the fact he's doubled his shot attempts from that area will last over the whole year. Or do you only use that argument when it benefits you? Aldridge was hot, he knew it, so he kept going to that shot. I imagine, on a night he goes cold from outside, he'll make more of a concerted effort to go inside. Quit looking at a single raw statistic and WATCH THE GAME.

Great points…. Aldridge's "catch and shoot" % is pretty high at 61.9%. He is scoring 8.7 of his total PPG from this scenario. Aldridge is averaging 25.7 PPG, so your argument is much more valid. That means creating his own shot, he scores 17 of his total 25.7 points. The haters don't go into this detail because they don't understand how Aldridge is scoring. This stats explains, he scores without help. And scores most of his points without help.

 

[blue9]

I think simply looking at FG% from 16-23 feet and using that as your template for determining how good someone is, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Because if that's the only criteria, that would mean Babitt was our best finisher at the rim last year. Do you really believe that? It would also mean Claver and Pavlovic were the best on our team from 10-15 ft.

Well if you don't weed out the noise, then yes. But when I run the #s I generally only pull data on players who play >20mpg so that we don't get that sort of noise.

Anyone who watches knows that Aldridge is a better outside shooter than Hickson. Aldridge is often having to create his own shot, while Hickson's usually just shooting that shot when he's set up by a teammate and wide open and/or squared to the basket.

That's not true, on either count. The #s show that Hickson was the better shooter. And LMA never "creates" out there - he's always passed the ball by a teammate. The only time he ever creates is in the post.

Yes it's a sample size of three this year, so I'm not sure why you think the fact he's doubled his shot attempts from that area will last over the whole year.

I don't think it'll last. I was merely commenting on the topic at hand - that he's shooting far-and-away the most long jumpers of anyone in the league, and more than he's ever shot in his career. We had all been hoping for the opposite of what's happened so far. It can't/won't last, but I do think he'll once again lead the league, or be near the top, for those long-range 2-pointers and that's not good basketball (unless he keeps shooting 10% above his career average).

 

[Pinwheel1]

I might experiment giving Meyers Leonard time as LaMarcus’ backup. Let TRob and Freeland get time as Lopez backup. Meyers is the only big that has similar shooting skills to LaMarcus. The offense could be ran the same.

I am not sure it is important what they call him, (PF or C) when Meyers is on the floor offensively he can play away from the basket. Robinson really can't. So if they are out there together it should be ok. But defensively Meyers does not have the lateral quickness to guard most PF's these days.

One thing they both can do is run. TRob looks like a deer out there. He really gets down the floor.
Meyers can also run the floor, just not as agile.

 

[noknobs]

That's not true, on either count. The #s show that Hickson was the better shooter. And LMA never "creates" out there - he's always passed the ball by a teammate. The only time he ever creates is in the post.

You can't be serious. Aldridge gets the ball out there all the time with his back to the basket and has to create his own shot, often a step-back jumper over the defender or a turnaround jump shot. Did you watch the end of the Denver game?

3:30 to go: Aldridge gets the ball free-throw line extended. Isolation play with his back to the basket. Takes two dribbles, then a turn-around from 16.

2:48 to go: See above. Same thing, same result.

2:05 to go: He gets the ball 15-ft from the basket, backs Faried in a few dribbles, then a turn-around jumper.

1:39 to go: Same things as at 3:30 to go, same result.

None of those four shots were assisted. He created all four of them.

Or it's like the end of the San Antonio game, in which the Spurs had to double-team Aldridge 18 feet from the basket, he finds the open guy, Lillard, who drives in and scores. You think teams double Hickson that far from the basket, since according to you he's a better shooter out there... No, because teams don't look at a single obscure stat, they actually scout their oponent.

 

[magnifier661]

That's not true, on either count. The #s show that Hickson was the better shooter. And LMA never "creates" out there - he's always passed the ball by a teammate. The only time he ever creates is in the post.

This season, only 8.7 out of the 25.7 points were from a "catch and shoot" like you keep trying to sell us. 17 of his 25.7 points are created by shots he created for himself.

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingShooting.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=50&sortField=PTS&sortOrder=DES

Try better next time.

 

[Draco]

I am not sure it is important what they call him, (PF or C) when Meyers is on the floor offensively he can play away from the basket. Robinson really can't. So if they are out there together it should be ok. But defensively Meyers does not have the lateral quickness to guard most PF's these days.

Meyers doesn’t have the interior skills to guard centers either. But against another teams backup PF he should be acceptable out there. Right now its really picking the least worst of two bad options. Robinson does not look good at all on offense in LaMarcus’ spot. I expected him to be a garbage player but that is not the roll he is substituting in for. The team is used to the PF being in the mid range area. Our center is already staying in the interior next to the hoop. Having our PF outside opens up the middle of the floor for guard penetration. If our PF and center are both inside it will clog up the offensive spacing.

Meyers has a lot of faults and as a fan he is frustrating to many of us, but one thing he can do really well is shoot. He might be a better jump shooter than LaMarcus one day. I think we need to accept Meyers strengths instead of dwelling on his faults. He is what he is and he can still turn that skill into a productive roll as a rotational player in this league.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Our center is already staying in the interior next to the hoop. Having our PF outside opens up the middle of the floor for guard penetration. If our PF and center are both inside it will clog up the offensive spacing.

Meyers has a lot of faults and as a fan he is frustrating to many of us, but one thing he can do really well is shoot. He might be a better jump shooter than LaMarcus one day. I think we need to accept Meyers strengths instead of dwelling on his faults. He is what he is and he can still turn that skill into a productive roll as a rotational player in this league.

Yes it is a problem having Robinson with the ball 12-15 feet from the basket. I don't know if moving him to center will eliminate that problem, but if it does, then I agree with you. I would think that they could fix that issue in other ways.

As far as Meyers guarding back up PF's, aren't alot of the back ups....stretch 4's? How is he going to cover them outside? Robinson is much better suited to cover a variety of PF's. (as is Claver)

Offensively Meyers is a PF. Defensively though I think his best chance is still against back up centers.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I still think Aldridge will end up on one of the Texas teams and if I had to bet it would be Houston.

 

[e_blazer]

Through the first three games, that's true. But historically it's not. Last season he was our 3rd best shooter from that range, behind Lillard and...wait for it...Hickson: http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=POR&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=0
He is an okay shooter from that range. But aside from it being an ineffective shot, it also hurts because he's not drawing fouls on the opposition. By not drawing fouls we as a team aren't shooting as many foul shots as we could be, and defenses can play tighter defense throughout the entire games because they're not in the penalty.

Okay, this is just a dumb use of stats. JJ played in 79 games and averaged 1.3 shots per game from 16-23 feet. That's a grand total of 103 shot attempts of which he made 47 shots. LA played in 73 games, averaged 7.3 shot attempts per game from that range (533 shots) and made 34.4% (183) of the shots. The low number of shots by JJ tells us that his attempts were not a major part of the offense, they were those happy times when he found himself on the receiving end of a pass and was wide open. LA's shots from that range were a main staple of last year's offense and he generally had 2 defenders on him. If you're willing to take JJ in a shooting contest against LA from that distance, I'll be happy to take your money.

He shouldn't go away from the shot entirely - but he shouldn't be making his living out there either. Back in the summer I remember having this conversation and the consensus seemed to be that he should redistribute his shot selection so that 2 more were in the paint and 1-2 were one step back behind the 3-point line. This was based on him taking 7+ shots from that range the previous season. And now we're seeing the exact opposite of what many of us thought he should do - more than doubling his shot attempts from the least effective spot on the floor!

I don't disagree that LA should go into the paint more than he has in the first three games, but I think that will come as the season goes along and Stotts fine tunes his offense. It's pretty tough to make any accurate assessment based on a sample size of 3 games.