Guys Neil Olshey passed on to draft Zach Collins

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I think one forgotten issue is, where exactly would Mitchel have gotten the minutes from? CJ and Damian were already starters at that point.

Utah didn't really have anyone on the depth chart ahead of Mitchel, let alone two already established starters.

I think the bigger fail is drafting Swanigan, but he was able to con the Kings into taking him for a serviceable big man and when that big man got hurt, he was able to con the kings into sending him back + Gabriel and Ariza (the jury is out on whether or not Ariza is worth keeping, esp due to the most recent allegations).

Maybe they should have taken Kuzma, but who's to say he'd be what he ended up being in LA? Granted, he's streaky, inconsistent and kind of overrated, but that's still 80 bajillion times better than Swanigan on his best days.
 
Stevenson said:
And we should have known that Oden would blow out his knee, and that MJ was going to be the greatest player ever.

I find this sort on Monday morning quarterbacking total B.S., designed to make you feel holier-than-thou. Woulda, shoulda, coulda. 14 GMs passed on Giannis. 5 passed on Dame.
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There is a vast difference between drafting a guy that was clearly top 1 or 2 on everyone's board and drafting a guy that didn't even start for his college team after you saw him play one game.
 
Here's the 2017 Draft sorted by Win-Share:
1. Jarrett Allen, 20.0 WS (22)
2. Bam Abedayo, 19.5 WS (14)
3. Jayson Tatum, 18.9 WS (3)
4. John Collins, 16.4 WS (19)
5. Donovan Mitchell, 15.7 WS (13)
6. OG Anunaby, 10.7 WS (23)
7. Monte Morris, 10.2 WS (51)
8. Thomas Bryant, 9.6 WS (42)
9. De'Aaron Fox, 9.1 WS (5)
10. Kyle Kuzma, 9.0 WS (27)
11. Lauri Markkanen, 8.7 WS (7)
12. Josh Hart, 8.6 WS (30)
13. Derrick White, 8.3 WS (29)
14. Luke Kennard, 7.0 WS (12)
15. Jonathan Issac, 6.7 WS (6)
16. Lonzo Ball, 6.0 WS (2)
17. Justin Jackson, 5.0 WS (15)
18. Jordan Bell, 4.9 WS (38)
19. Terrance Ferguson, 4.6 WS (21)
20. Wesley Iwundu, 4.2 WS (33)
21. Zach Collins, 3.9 WS (10)
25. Markelle Fultz, 3.2 WS (1)
51. Caleb Swanigan, -0.2 WS (26)
54. Frank Ntilikina, -0.8 WS (8)
55. Dennis Smith, -1.6 WS (9)
56. Josh Jackson, -1.8 WS (4)

Zach has a long ways to go before earning that 10th pick.
 
julius said:
I think one forgotten issue is, where exactly would Mitchel have gotten the minutes from? CJ and Damian were already starters at that point.

Utah didn't really have anyone on the depth chart ahead of Mitchel, let alone two already established starters.

I think the bigger fail is drafting Swanigan, but he was able to con the Kings into taking him for a serviceable big man and when that big man got hurt, he was able to con the kings into sending him back + Gabriel and Ariza (the jury is out on whether or not Ariza is worth keeping, esp due to the most recent allegations).

Maybe they should have taken Kuzma, but who's to say he'd be what he ended up being in LA? Granted, he's streaky, inconsistent and kind of overrated, but that's still 80 bajillion times better than Swanigan on his best days.
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FWIW, Dame wanted Mitchell: https://ripcityproject.com/2018/05/14/damian-lillard-draft-suggestions/

In fact, he hoped the Blazers would select Donovan Mitchell in last year’s NBA draft.

Lillard and Mitchell started communicating during the latter’s college seasons at Louisville. Dame spotted the youngster rocking his signature shoe and reached out.

Then, on draft night last summer, the Blazers traded pick No. 15 and 20 to the Kings for pick No. 10. Portland made the two-for-one swap in order to draft 19-year-old Zach Collins out of Gonzaga.

Three picks later, the Denver Nuggets selected Donovan Mitchell and traded him to the Utah Jazz for Trey Lyles and pick No. 24.

Mitchell said, “After I got drafted, (Damian Lillard) actually texted me and said that he was hoping I slipped to Portland. He texted me right after the draft and that was kind of crazy.”

Lillard confirmed the rookie’s words: “I thought he was going to come in and work out for us and we might’ve picked him. I just thought it might fall that way, but I really was a fan of what he was doing, how he carried himself and he found a good home here.”
 
illmatic99 said:
FWIW, Dame wanted Mitchell: https://ripcityproject.com/2018/05/14/damian-lillard-draft-suggestions/

In fact, he hoped the Blazers would select Donovan Mitchell in last year’s NBA draft.

Lillard and Mitchell started communicating during the latter’s college seasons at Louisville. Dame spotted the youngster rocking his signature shoe and reached out.

Then, on draft night last summer, the Blazers traded pick No. 15 and 20 to the Kings for pick No. 10. Portland made the two-for-one swap in order to draft 19-year-old Zach Collins out of Gonzaga.

Three picks later, the Denver Nuggets selected Donovan Mitchell and traded him to the Utah Jazz for Trey Lyles and pick No. 24.

Mitchell said, “After I got drafted, (Damian Lillard) actually texted me and said that he was hoping I slipped to Portland. He texted me right after the draft and that was kind of crazy.”

Lillard confirmed the rookie’s words: “I thought he was going to come in and work out for us and we might’ve picked him. I just thought it might fall that way, but I really was a fan of what he was doing, how he carried himself and he found a good home here.”
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True, but that doesn't mean he'd all the sudden get minutes.
 
Stevenson said:
And we should have known that Oden would blow out his knee, and that MJ was going to be the greatest player ever.

I find this sort on Monday morning quarterbacking total B.S., designed to make you feel holier-than-thou. Woulda, shoulda, coulda. 14 GMs passed on Giannis. 5 passed on Dame.
Click to expand...
Oden’s medicals had red flags all over them. It’s not that we SHOULD have known......WE DID KNOW

Also, MJ was player of the year, and people within our organization said he was a generational talent. They asked many in the industry who all said to draft Jordan. We knew, and didn’t

it’s not Monday morning anything. It was common knowledge our front office ignored.

same thing with Aldridge. He let the team know for almost 2 years he wanted out. Instead of getting something for a legit all star big, he left for nothing
 
THE HCP said:
It all evens itself out..... there was no way that we should of had Dame fall into our lap the way he did.
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Actually, I don't think it does. All GMs make 'mistakes', but some more than others.

I posted this in another thread, but it seems applicable here. Using Career Win-Share as a baseline, here's a look at how the Blazers have drafted over the past 50 years vs other GMs. 1.0 means they've gotten equal talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks/position. 0.5 means they only have gotten 50% of the talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks. 1.25 means they've gotten 25% more talent than other GMs....

upload_2020-9-4_10-0-56.png

Not a surprise. San Antonio has gotten 45% more production out of their draft picks than other GMs. Blazers are a respectable 5% better than the league average.

Breaking that down even further, here's a look at how the different Blazer GMs have performed -

upload_2020-9-4_10-9-52.png

Olshey's only at 83% of the talent that other GMs have gotten. His GM record may look better in a few years as his draft picks gain in WS, that is if guys like Collins can stay on the floor.
 
Everyone forgot that Zach almost lead Gonzaga to a National championship. He also help us to WCS finals with his play in the playoffs last year with his defense. How many those players you have mentioned made that so far. Zach had injury year it happens to any player and that includes starts. KD and LeBron last year and many more. Zach started out strong before he got injured he actually finishing the games at center not Whiteside. To me he is a key piece to this team to move forward. He gets high praise from the team leader in Dame. So don't count this kid out because of one year.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Actually, I don't think it does. All GMs make 'mistakes', but some more than others.

I posted this in another thread, but it seems applicable here. Using Career Win-Share as a baseline, here's a look at how the Blazers have drafted over the past 50 years vs other GMs. 1.0 means they've gotten equal talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks/position. 0.5 means they only have gotten 50% of the talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks. 1.25 means they've gotten 25% more talent than other GMs....

View attachment 33304

Not a surprise. San Antonio has gotten 45% more production out of their draft picks than other GMs. Blazers are a respectable 5% better than the league average.

Breaking that down even further, here's a look at how the different Blazer GMs have performed -

View attachment 33305

Olshey's only at 83% of the talent that other GMs have gotten. His GM record may look better in a few years as his draft picks gain in WS, that is if guys like Collins can stay on the floor.
Click to expand...
Honest question

Does SA win share look better because of Duncan? Like Parker and Ginobili were great players, but their win shares would be lower without Duncan.......right?
 


Meanwhile the weaker Collins might not even get extended whatsoever lmao
 
OneSport3 said:
because he saw him play one game and that was all he needed to see:

#13 Donovan Mitchell
#14 Bam Adebayo
#19 John Collins
#23 OG Anunoby

Thanks Neil
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Crazy thing is we had 3 picks around that range lmao
 
Labinot41 said:
Collins has zero offensiv game, and he's a vastly overrated defender by Blazers fans. He fouls like crazy. Swanigan will be out of the league after this season. The 2017 draft had potential and Neil fucked it up completely
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We had 3 1st round picks that year too crazy. How Zach Collins was a top 10 pick is beyond me
 
James lamphear said:
Everyone forgot that Zach almost lead Gonzaga to a National championship. He also help us to WCS finals with his play in the playoffs last year with his defense. How many those players you have mentioned made that so far. Zach had injury year it happens to any player and that includes starts. KD and LeBron last year and many more. Zach started out strong before he got injured he actually finishing the games at center not Whiteside. To me he is a key piece to this team to move forward. He gets high praise from the team leader in Dame. So don't count this kid out because of one year.
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he was their fourth leading scorer and averaged 9/6 in the tournament

And he didn't even start a single time in their 39 games while playing only 18 mpg.

Not sure about your idea of "almost led to a National Championship."

:smiley-hmm:
 
Mediocre Man said:
Honest question

Does SA win share look better because of Duncan? Like Parker and Ginobili were great players, but their win shares would be lower without Duncan.......right?
Click to expand...
Very good question. How Win-Share is calculated is addressed at this link.

In short, yes. If a player is surrounded by other great players, they have more of an opportunity to split those wins. But on the flip side, if they aren't contributing significantly to the win, they get a very small slice. One reason I like this stat is because if gives some weight to teams/players that are winning, and discounts a bit those player that are amazing big individual stats, but their teams are always loosing.

Also keep in mind that the metric I have show above does not distinguish between what team the player gained that Win-Share. A GM might draft a great player, only to quickly cut or trade that player away. Anthony Mason for example got most of his WS with NYK and CHH, although Portland/Buckwalter technically was the the GM that got credit for that spectacular late draft find.
 
All that said, I don't hate Zach. Neil whiffed on that draft big time, but if healthy Collins can be a very serviceable big. Not much you can do about his rock hands but he can be really good defensively once the refs stop giving him the absolute worst whistle. The problem I see is that he clearly fits better as a straight Center. He can't shoot well enough to space as a PF, nor can he keep up with the wing players defensively who are all playing a spot up. He needs to take over that backup 5 position full time next season and I'd think he'd be a lot more useful.

aka, we better not bring back whiteside unless it's for a S&T.
 
the 2017 draft was one of Olshey's worst days as GM. It could have really altered Portland's trajectory

Olshey is great at 2nd round picks, but he doesn't value them very highly. His 1st round performance hasn't been very good though (I'm crediting previous management for Dame). But that's par for the course for Olshey. He's a master at the bargain bin when there's little to no competition for available assets. When the stakes get higher, his rate of fuck-ups go way up. Doesn't matter if it's drafting or if it's trades or if it's offering & signing free agents using cap-space. When the competition is more intense and the stake are higher, he's a chump
 
For that year his offense rating was 125.3 his defense rating was 79.5 per 100. I think that pretty damn good.
 
illmatic99 said:
he was their fourth leading scorer and averaged 9/6 in the tournament

And he didn't even start a single time in their 39 games while playing only 18 mpg.

Not sure about your idea of "almost led to a National Championship."

:smiley-hmm:
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In the semi in that tournament against south Carolina he had 14 points 13 rebounds and 6 blocks for Gonzaga to get to the finals. I believe that he help them to get to the finals.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Oden’s medicals had red flags all over them. It’s not that we SHOULD have known......WE DID KNOW

Also, MJ was player of the year, and people within our organization said he was a generational talent. They asked many in the industry who all said to draft Jordan. We knew, and didn’t

it’s not Monday morning anything. It was common knowledge our front office ignored.

same thing with Aldridge. He let the team know for almost 2 years he wanted out. Instead of getting something for a legit all star big, he left for nothing
Click to expand...

Oden was the consensus #1 pick over Durant. I think Orlando GM or such was the only one who in informal inteviews ranked Durant higher because they had Dwight at the time.
 
Natebishop3 said:
That's the whole problem. It's way too soon BECAUSE HE'S A MASSIVE PROJECT.

We didn't need a project. We needed a rotation player.
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Now, now, let's be fair. We got a rotation player who at the same time is a massive project.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Actually, I don't think it does. All GMs make 'mistakes', but some more than others.

I posted this in another thread, but it seems applicable here. Using Career Win-Share as a baseline, here's a look at how the Blazers have drafted over the past 50 years vs other GMs. 1.0 means they've gotten equal talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks/position. 0.5 means they only have gotten 50% of the talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks. 1.25 means they've gotten 25% more talent than other GMs....

View attachment 33304

Not a surprise. San Antonio has gotten 45% more production out of their draft picks than other GMs. Blazers are a respectable 5% better than the league average.

Breaking that down even further, here's a look at how the different Blazer GMs have performed -

View attachment 33305

Olshey's only at 83% of the talent that other GMs have gotten. His GM record may look better in a few years as his draft picks gain in WS, that is if guys like Collins can stay on the floor.
Click to expand...
So obviously "Win Share' means absolutely nothing....
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Oden was the consensus #1 pick over Durant. I think Orlando GM or such was the only one who in informal inteviews ranked Durant higher because they had Dwight at the time.
Click to expand...
I know first hand, not via anyone, that Oden’s knees were a mess. It has also been documented since that KP knew the risks of Oden........and Roy, for that matter
 
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