Halfway through the Season

[TBpup]

Okay, almost. The Blazers have played 40 games and a few other teams are at 38-39 but it's close enough to take a mid-season look especially at the West.

1. Denver Nuggets - Who had them at #1? If you raised your hand you are either lying or misunderstood the question. Team International is getting a monster year out of Jokic and a different supporting co-star(s) on almost a nightly basis. Michael Malone should get CoY votes for what he has done there so far.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - After an 0-4 start, they are 25-9 and still without their best defender Andre Roberson. Getting him back will be like acquiring a solid trade piece. Westbrook has been terribly inefficient but PG13 has more than made up for it on most nights.

3. Golden State Warriors - This is what happens when you have injuries and lose a whole lot of size up front. Only Durant and Thompson have started more than 30 games. Gone are Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee and Damian Jones. As they get healthy and when Cousins joins the fray, they are still the team to beat.

4. LA Clippers - As much as I can't stand his antics, if the Clips end up with HCA, Doc will get CoY votes as well. They are doing it with a very balanced attack and no real stars even though Tobias Harris is playing very well. Their bench is a nightmare for opponents most nights with Harrell, Williams and Beverly more than capable of making a nightly impact in some manner.

5. Houston Rockets - Despite the loss to the Blazers, this has been one of the NBA's hottest teams and they have been missing 2 huge pieces in CP3 and Eric Gordon on many nights. They lost a lot of defense from last years squad but when healthy, the Rockets can still put a lot of points on the board and be a dangerous matchup to almost anyone.

6. San Antonio Spurs - I bet on the 'Over' with the Blazers to start the year and made the same bet on the Spurs. After a slow start, they are 12-3 in their last 15 and Pop seems to be working his magic despite his lack of usual talent.

7. Portland Trail Blazers - perhaps the most mercurial team in the West. Can beat the Buck, Raptors, Warriors on one night and then lose to the Wizards, Mavs and get pummeled by the Jazz and the aforementioned Bucks the next. The don't get easy buckets, don't create turnovers, don't fast break but have two guards who can at times hit very difficult, contested shots. Their defense is better for the most part but after a hot start, their offense sank back to middle of the pack. It doesn't help that CJ McCollum is having a bit of a down year despite still getting 20+ points a night. Dame is the leader....but Nurkic might be the difference.

8. LA Lakers - This one is simple. If LeBron plays, they are a Top-3 team in the West. If he is out, they are Lottery bound despite some nice young pieces.

9. Utah Jazz - They should be better but Donavan Mitchell is experiencing one of the worst Sophomore slumps in recent memory. His eFG% is an abysmal .466 and what makes that bad for the Jazz is Ricky Rubio is even worse. They can play stifling defense but still need to hit some shots. If those two break out of their slumps, watch out.

10. Sacramento Kings - I wouldn't put them in this list because they won't make the Playoffs but the fact that they are even this close bears mentioning. They have some exciting young talent and are shooting '3's at a Warrior/Rocket-like pace if not with the same efficiency. They are fun to watch which is nice for a solid fan base.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Nice thread, but I have a few minor criticisms.
The numbers should be 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 8 9 10

The poll is crazy impossible to predict, but....

I'm going with the Lakers (boo!). Young players should be getting a little better each game. LBJ's learning of his teammates tendencies should be increasing as we go along. LBJ's message that his job is not to do everything will sink in at some point.

 

[TBpup]

Nice thread, but I have a few minor criticisms.
The numbers should be 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 8 9 10

I went in order of current standings. Since Playoff positioning can not end in a tie, it seemed reasonable.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I went in order of current standings. Since Playoff positioning can not end in a tie, it seemed reasonable.

It's not unreasonable, it just gives the impression that the #7 team is way behind the #4 team, when in fact, they are tied.

Obviously, the Warriors are a candidate to make a leap with Boogie in the wings.

Denver, OKC, and the Clips are all candidates to make a big fall...

 

[TBpup]

It's not unreasonable, it just gives the impression that the #7 team is way behind the #4 team, when in fact, they are tied.

No impression of gap whatsoever....just the standings of Playoff rank if the Playoffs were to start today. Just like last year when #3 and #10 were separated by something like 2 games. It's very tight.

 

[Hobbesarable]

No impression of gap whatsoever....just the standings of Playoff rank if the Playoffs were to start today. Just like last year when #3 and #10 were separated by something like 2 games. It's very tight.

Or simply post the current record for each next to the team name.

 

[TBpup]

This is amusing. Records only dictate Playoff positioning....which is what is currently shown.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I voted for houston, but I dont think any of them will make a huge leap. A few I think will fall off a bit.

 

[e_blazer]

You have to factor in strength of schedule in looking at team records at mid-season. Denver and OKC have had relatively easy schedules to date. Utah, Portland, and Houston have had the toughest schedules. I’d look for one of those three teams to make the biggest move as their schedules lighten up. I’m homer enough to go for the Blazers based on what they have done in the second halves of the past two seasons.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

You have to factor in strength of schedule in looking at team records at mid-season. Denver and OKC have had relatively easy schedules to date. Utah, Portland, and Houston have had the toughest schedules. I’d look for one of those three teams to make the biggest move as their schedules lighten up. I’m homer enough to go for the Blazers based on what they have done in the second halves of the past two seasons.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

I was thinking about it more from a health standpoint, this is a good point.

 

[stampedehero]

Okay, almost. The Blazers have played 40 games and a few other teams are at 38-39 but it's close enough to take a mid-season look especially at the West.

1. Denver Nuggets - Who had them at #1? If you raised your hand you are either lying or misunderstood the question. Team International is getting a monster year out of Jokic and a different supporting co-star(s) on almost a nightly basis. Michael Malone should get CoY votes for what he has done there so far.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - After an 0-4 start, they are 25-9 and still without their best defender Andre Roberson. Getting him back will be like acquiring a solid trade piece. Westbrook has been terribly inefficient but PG13 has more than made up for it on most nights.

3. Golden State Warriors - This is what happens when you have injuries and lose a whole lot of size up front. Only Durant and Thompson have started more than 30 games. Gone are Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee and Damian Jones. As they get healthy and when Cousins joins the fray, they are still the team to beat.

4. LA Clippers - As much as I can't stand his antics, if the Clips end up with HCA, Doc will get CoY votes as well. They are doing it with a very balanced attack and no real stars even though Tobias Harris is playing very well. Their bench is a nightmare for opponents most nights with Harrell, Williams and Beverly more than capable of making a nightly impact in some manner.

5. Houston Rockets - Despite the loss to the Blazers, this has been one of the NBA's hottest teams and they have been missing 2 huge pieces in CP3 and Eric Gordon on many nights. They lost a lot of defense from last years squad but when healthy, the Rockets can still put a lot of points on the board and be a dangerous matchup to almost anyone.

6. San Antonio Spurs - I bet on the 'Over' with the Blazers to start the year and made the same bet on the Spurs. After a slow start, they are 12-3 in their last 15 and Pop seems to be working his magic despite his lack of usual talent.

7. Portland Trail Blazers - perhaps the most mercurial team in the West. Can beat the Buck, Raptors, Warriors on one night and then lose to the Wizards, Mavs and get pummeled by the Jazz and the aforementioned Bucks the next. The don't get easy buckets, don't create turnovers, don't fast break but have two guards who can at times hit very difficult, contested shots. Their defense is better for the most part but after a hot start, their offense sank back to middle of the pack. It doesn't help that CJ McCollum is having a bit of a down year despite still getting 20+ points a night. Dame is the leader....but Nurkic might be the difference.

8. LA Lakers - This one is simple. If LeBron plays, they are a Top-3 team in the West. If he is out, they are Lottery bound despite some nice young pieces.

9. Utah Jazz - They should be better but Donavan Mitchell is experiencing one of the worst Sophomore slumps in recent memory. His eFG% is an abysmal .466 and what makes that bad for the Jazz is Ricky Rubio is even worse. They can play stifling defense but still need to hit some shots. If those two break out of their slumps, watch out.

10. Sacramento Kings - I wouldn't put them in this list because they won't make the Playoffs but the fact that they are even this close bears mentioning. They have some exciting young talent and are shooting '3's at a Warrior/Rocket-like pace if not with the same efficiency. They are fun to watch which is nice for a solid fan base.

YES…..Nurk IS THE Difference. Someone must have informed Terry.

 

[wizenheimer]

You have to factor in strength of schedule in looking at team records at mid-season. Denver and OKC have had relatively easy schedules to date. Utah, Portland, and Houston have had the toughest schedules. I’d look for one of those three teams to make the biggest move as their schedules lighten up. I’m homer enough to go for the Blazers based on what they have done in the second halves of the past two seasons.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

SOS has some value, but IMO, people tend to overrate it...or at least perceive it to mean more than it really does

for instance, right now Portland is 2nd or 3rd in SOS, depending on what ranking you're looking at; Denver is 15th right at the median. Portland's opponents have a 54% winning percentage; Denver's opponents have a 50%. Using the halfway point, 41 games, it means that Portland's opponents have an average record of 22-19. Denver's have either a 21 or 20 game win total, whether you round up or down. For a better perspective this would mean Portland's opponents finished with 44 wins, Denver's with 41. That's really not some giant gulf and it could be nearly equalized by a missed shot or a turnover in a single game

the same is true for the remaining SOS. Denver's opponents will average 21 more wins, Portland's will average 20

and of course, these SOS rankings don't factor home/road games. Denver has had 1 more road game than home games; Portland has had 4 more home games than road games. In fact, after this home stand, Portland will have 16 remaining games at home but 23 on the road. Further, over Portland's last 28 games, they have 10 at home and 18 on the road. I wouldn't be counting on some automatic bump due to SOS

 

[Blazers Roy]

If Denver finishes as the #1 seed, i'll bet they'll lose to the #8 seed (unless it's the Kings or the Clippers).

 

[e_blazer]

SOS has some value, but IMO, people tend to overrate it...or at least perceive it to mean more than it really does

for instance, right now Portland is 2nd or 3rd in SOS, depending on what ranking you're looking at; Denver is 15th right at the median. Portland's opponents have a 54% winning percentage; Denver's opponents have a 50%. Using the halfway point, 41 games, it means that Portland's opponents have an average record of 22-19. Denver's have either a 21 or 20 game win total, whether you round up or down. For a better perspective this would mean Portland's opponents finished with 44 wins, Denver's with 41. That's really not some giant gulf and it could be nearly equalized by a missed shot or a turnover in a single game

the same is true for the remaining SOS. Denver's opponents will average 21 more wins, Portland's will average 20

and of course, these SOS rankings don't factor home/road games. Denver has had 1 more road game than home games; Portland has had 4 more home games than road games. In fact, after this home stand, Portland will have 16 remaining games at home but 23 on the road. Further, over Portland's last 28 games, they have 10 at home and 18 on the road. I wouldn't be counting on some automatic bump due to SOS

I’m more counting on an automatic bump due to Damian Lillard.

 

[wizenheimer]

I’m more counting on an automatic bump due to Damian Lillard.

now that is something to hang hopes on. Over the previous 3 seasons, whenever Portland has gone on their runs it's been when Dame is blasting out superstar vibes

 

[BonesJones]

SOS has some value, but IMO, people tend to overrate it...or at least perceive it to mean more than it really does

for instance, right now Portland is 2nd or 3rd in SOS, depending on what ranking you're looking at; Denver is 15th right at the median. Portland's opponents have a 54% winning percentage; Denver's opponents have a 50%. Using the halfway point, 41 games, it means that Portland's opponents have an average record of 22-19. Denver's have either a 21 or 20 game win total, whether you round up or down. For a better perspective this would mean Portland's opponents finished with 44 wins, Denver's with 41. That's really not some giant gulf and it could be nearly equalized by a missed shot or a turnover in a single game

the same is true for the remaining SOS. Denver's opponents will average 21 more wins, Portland's will average 20

and of course, these SOS rankings don't factor home/road games. Denver has had 1 more road game than home games; Portland has had 4 more home games than road games. In fact, after this home stand, Portland will have 16 remaining games at home but 23 on the road. Further, over Portland's last 28 games, they have 10 at home and 18 on the road. I wouldn't be counting on some automatic bump due to SOS

The swings in the chance to win respective games due to opponent strength are bigger than the swings in average opponent record are able to reflect.