Have Blazers gone off the rails?

[Shooter]

Anybody else out there feeling that this "Blazer Express" has gone off the rails? It wasn't so long ago that everybody in the NBA was saying, "Wow, look at those exciting young Blazers! They're going to win a championship one of these days, and perhaps several."

Today, it's a far different story. Brandon Roy has come back to earth after three exceptional seasons, and is now missing free-throws, missing shots, and playing very little defense. On a lot of nights, he just looks like a good NBA player, not a great one. Has he been injured? Yes. But I can now see his limitations, and he has more flaws than I thought.

LaMarcus Aldridge has apparently settled into what he is going to be for the rest of his career: Rasheed Wallace "light." He can shoot pretty well, but he's not really a battler, and he seems to coast a lot of the time. As far as I can tell, he's never going to be a prime time player you can count on in the clutch. He doesn't seem to have the fire in his belly.

And need I mention Greg Oden? Twice injured in his young career, and very serious injuries both times. He may never be able to put together an injury-free season, much less attain any semblance of greatness. I suspect he is going to "tease" us with his potential for years, and never fully deliver on it.

Those are the three "superstars" we were all counting on to take us to the mountaintop, and yet I have very little faith that they can get us there. I hate to be pessimistic, but the optimism and excitement I felt about this team over the last three seasons is starting to fade. We now know what we have in Roy, Aldridge, and Oden, and it aint' quite as great as we thought . . .

 

[MIXUM]

the thunder are the new blazers.

if they get a center... look out, as for the blazers... i think its safe to say they are a borderline playoff team with very little chance of a 2nd round appearance now or in future.

this has been a very sobering season imo.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This year is hard to hold up as an example of a team "going off the rails" It's certainly been a let down in terms of buzz and building momentum (like we saw last year) but considering that they are still in the drivers' seat for the last playoff spot in spite of everything they've endured I can't quite buy this argument.

That said, I think the "expectations" bubble has been burst a little, and there seems to be a gnawing doubt growing in the minds of many that this squad might be destined for being a merely decent to good team that could be great if only its key pieces could ever get healthy -- which looks more and more tenuous.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Yes. We did not maximize our pieces, traded players too fast just to "get rid of them" and wasted our much lauded and overhyped cap space. Roy is still great, but after that....not THAT MUCH to set us as an elite team.

basically we busted our nut before we should have.


That being said, whether we are contenders or not all depends on Greg Oden's health. If he's healthy, we are going to be a top 4 team in the league as long as we have Roy next to him.

 

[MIXUM]

yep

 

[e_blazer]

Whether this team can contend for a title is dependant upon Greg Oden. As is, the Blazers will make the playoffs for the foreseeable future, but lack enough punch to do much more than that. In order to do more than that, the Blazers need Oden to both be healthy and to build on where his game was at when he got injured. Until we see if he can do that, nobody can say if the Blazers have gone "off the rails".

The era of rebuilding through the draft is over...the Blazers won't have a lottery pick for who knows how long. KP has plenty of assets to make moves with so he can tinker with the chemistry a bit if he wants to, but this team is built around a core of Roy, Aldridge and Oden. Roy and Aldridge are what they are...a consistent second tier All-Star in Roy's case and a solid, but not All-Star caliber PF in Aldridge's case. The Blazers need Oden to be a force in the middle if they want to rise to the next level.

 

[andalusian]

The era of rebuilding through the draft is over...the Blazers won't have a lottery pick for who knows how long.

True, to a point, but there is a bit more than that to it, imho.

The Euro-stash thing could still work - and give the team lottery level talent - if he manages to persuade them to come over. Between Freeland, Kopo and Claver - there is at least one if not more lottery level talent, so maybe - the team still can become better via the draft after all.

KP has plenty of assets to make moves with so he can tinker with the chemistry a bit if he wants to, but this team is built around a core of Roy, Aldridge and Oden.

I would add Batum to the list. Sure, he is young and inconsistent - but there are flashes of greatness there.

Roy and Aldridge are what they are...a consistent second tier All-Star in Roy's case and a solid, but not All-Star caliber PF in Aldridge's case. The Blazers need Oden to be a force in the middle if they want to rise to the next level.

While I disagree with some of the details mentioned above - I agree 100% with this assessment. If Oden can stay healthy, or at least, healthier - this team is a contender year after year.

I mentioned it in one of the game threads - but it might have been lost there - so it is worth repeating.

The last decade showed us that the teams that make the finals usually have a combined offensive/defensive efficiency around the 10 mark. The combination is very easy to calculate - you take their position in offensive efficiency, add the position in defensive efficiency and see where it comes. This year's Blazers team is at around 20, last year was at 14 (much better). But, before Oden went down - this team's combined offensive/defensive efficiency position was at 12 - this is contender territory.

The offense is fine with or without Oden - but where Oden really leaves his mark is by making this team an elite defensive team. When this happens - they are contenders. Simple as that.

 

[mook]

2003 through 2006 was "off the rails." Fuck, we didn't even have rails then. It was more like a push cart with one granite wheel.

The current Blazers isn't the bullet train I want it to be, but it's sturdy, reliable transportation. If Oden and Roy return to full health, I haven't seen anything this year that tells me the long-term plan is failing. In fact, with the progress of Batum and Bayless, I'd say it's doing pretty well.

The 21 win season is still firmly etched in my mind. I'll need another season or two of first-round-and-outs before I start getting really fed up.

 

[HailBlazers]

Brandon Roy has come back to earth after three exceptional seasons, and is now missing free-throws, missing shots, and playing very little defense.

LaMarcus Aldridge, As far as I can tell, he's never going to be a prime time player you can count on in the clutch.

And need I mention Greg Oden? Twice injured in his young career, and very serious injuries both times.

I think the Blazers fans have gone off the rails. Building a great team takes work and timing. People were disillusioned to think once we got the players we were going straight to the top.

Roy: Not 100%

LMA: Not being utilized properly. Should Pick and Roll with Roy every-time or only give it to him deep in the post.

Oden: Injured twice? No. Organizational decision to give him MF surgery. He could have easily played the first season. We chose the surgery for the long term.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The ideal rebuilding plan would not be built around guys who are injury prone, head cases, or both. How a guy plays after he gets his first big contract tells you a lot. So far, Roy and LMA have flunked the test.

 

[Shooter]

How a guy plays after he gets his first big contract tells you a lot. So far, Roy and LMA have flunked the test.

I'd have to agree. Roy and Aldridge have been disappointments this year, especially Aldridge. In Roy's absence, Aldridge could have stepped up big time, but he didn't. He's a nice piece if you have other aggressive players around him, but he's never going to be a leader on his own.

 

[Ed O]

I don't think the team is off the rails at all.

Am I disappointed in this year? Sure.

But did I expect them to be REAL contenders this year? No. They're too young and there were too many things that could go wrong.

Next year they should be back to where they were last year. The year after THAT is when I'd expect them to be real contenders.

Ed O.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't think the team is off the rails at all.

Am I disappointed in this year? Sure.

But did I expect them to be REAL contenders this year? No. They're too young and there were too many things that could go wrong.

Next year they should be back to where they were last year. The year after THAT is when I'd expect them to be real contenders.

Ed O.

During the impending lockout then?

 

[STOMP]

The ideal rebuilding plan would not be built around guys who are injury prone, head cases, or both. How a guy plays after he gets his first big contract tells you a lot. So far, Roy and LMA have flunked the test.

good grief dude, both have been playing through injury so their performance not being better then the previous healthy year is to be expected. Flunky head cases shut it down

STOMP

 

[mook]

If you want an example of a team going off the rails, look at Golden State. It wasn't just that they blew a massive lead in the fourth quarter. It was that when the lead was dwindling to only 6 or 7, you could hear it in the announcers, you could hear it in the arena, and most importantly you could see it in the body language of the Golden State players. "Here we go again. We're going to lose. Fuck." They were still winning the game, and yet just about everybody knew they were circling the drain.

No matter how bad it gets for Portland, it's so nice to have that mindset a distant memory.