Yeah, like they said Hillary was a shoe-in last time.
Money talk
$, bullshit walks.
Economic Models Show President Trump on Track for 2020 Landslide Win
By
Janita Kan
March 21, 2019 Updated: March 21, 2019
Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide victory. Their forecasts are based on economic models that have successfully predicted the right presidential victors in the past.
TrendMacrolytics, a research firm that predicted Trump’s 2016
election win, unveiled their model (
pdf) for the upcoming presidential election on March 15, that predicts
Trump will be re-elected by a margin of 294 electoral college votes if the election were held today. It also predicted that
if the Republican candidate was someone else, like Mike Pence, that person would win by 214 electoral college votes.
Donald Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, told
Politico that a booming U.S. economy is the main factor behind the prediction, coupled with the historic advantage for running again as the incumbent president.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” Luskin told the news website. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
According to a Gallup poll released on March 5, 56 percent of Americans approve of how the president is handling the economy, which marked a new high for Trump. Not far behind was Trump’s handling of unemployment, where he gained an approval rating of 54 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump’s overall job approval numbers were recorded at 43 percent, roughly the same numbers as Gallop’s previous February poll.
Similarly, Yale economist and election forecaster Ray Fair also predicted Trump would win re-election on the basis of a flourishing economy and the incumbency advantage. He also predicted Trump would win in 2016 but missed on the president’s share of the popular vote, according to the news website.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy—and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election—that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” Fair told Politico.
He predicted that Trump would receive 54 percent of the popular vote compared to 46 percent for Democrats.
On his
website, Fair wrote, “The current case is the best possible one for the Republicans according to the equation: President running again and no negative duration effect. In this case, it takes a weak economy to have the voting equation predict the Democrats getting close to 50 percent of the two-party vote.”
Luskin told Politico that “[the economy] would have to slow a lot to still be not pretty good,” but added that a sharp move in the wrong direction could change how voters would behave.
On March 18, a new CNN poll conducted by independent research firm SSRS, revealed that 71 percent of Americans think that the country’s economy is in good shape, which the highest number since February 2001 and the best rating Trump has received during his presidency—by two points. Meanwhile, 51 percent of Americans approved of the way Trump has handled the nation’s economy.
The Epoch Times Reporter Bowen Xiao contributed to this report
