History of the mid-1st round pick

[Strenuus]

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/14th-overall/140509/

This is going back to 1980. This can also give you any selection in the first round. I chose the 14th because that seems to be the arbitrary number

noteable 14th picks: Drexler, Stojkavoic, Brewer, Thornton, Henson.

15th: Greek Freak, Harkless, Robin Lopez, Jefferson, Nash.

16th: Vucevic, Babbitt, Turkey Glue

17th: Hibbert, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal, Kemp


I could go on and on. And remember, this is the last 35 years. I'm sure "notable" will mean different to other people, so I tried to go most known to us as well as just recognizable names.

So, at most, 5 or 6 in every slot... runs about a 1/25 (at most) chance of landing something that would help us immediately (or in some of these cases I mentioned, not at all, and I just mentioned them since they were blazers).

 

[Boob-No-More]

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/14th-overall/140509/

This is going back to 1980. This can also give you any selection in the first round. I chose the 14th because that seems to be the arbitrary number

noteable 14th picks: Drexler, Stojkavoic, Brewer, Thornton, Henson.

15th: Greek Freak, Harkless, Robin Lopez, Jefferson, Nash.

16th: Vucevic, Babbitt, Turkey Glue

17th: Hibbert, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal, Kemp


I could go on and on. And remember, this is the last 35 years. I'm sure "notable" will mean different to other people, so I tried to go most known to us as well as just recognizable names.

So, at most, 5 or 6 in every slot... runs about a 1/25 (at most) chance of landing something that would help us immediately (or in some of these cases I mentioned, not at all, and I just mentioned them since they were blazers).

Good summary, I noted in the unmitigated disaster thread that picks in this range are a total crap shoot, there's only about a 5% - 10% chance (depending on the depth of the draft - this tears draft is NOT deep) of landing a player that will actually be a solid contributor in his first 2 or 3 years. The balance is split about equally between guys that never amount to shit and guys that eventually become decent rotation players (often after being traded once or twice).

Tanking to get the 13th or 14th pick in this draft never made sense to me. Let DEN have it. We already have young players (Harklesss and Vonleh) that are better than anyone we'd likely get with that pick. Those guys are still VERY young and need minutes to develop. There aren't enough minutes to go around to add another youngster to the mix. I'd rather have Neil focus his efforts on finding another Maurice Harkless type player who is still young, but cut his teeth burning up minutes on someone else's roster. Olshey stole Harkless for a top 55 protected pick, he's still only 22 and will contribute WAY more next season than anyone we would have drafted at 13 or 14. Let someone else take the risks and then pluck the under-appreciated gems once you've seen what they can actual do on an NBA court.

BNM

 

[oldmangrouch]

As I said at the beginning of the season - 8th is better than 9th, but 15th is also better than 9th. The ass-end of the lotto is the worst place to be. Once it was clear the Blazers weren't in the running for a top 5 pick, making a run for the play-offs made sense.

 

[SIeepwalker]

I was happy with the tanking at first because I didn't really see the point in barely entering the playoff with a losing record. Now that we're the 5th seed win 6 more wins than losses, it obviously changes everything
Plus the fact that the pick would be lost eventually, it's really not a big deal

 

[SlyPokerDog]

We gave up the next Drexler?!?

:MARIS61:

 

[Strenuus]

Aside from all this... NO has shown a penchant for the FA and under-the-radar signings... so I trust him there.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

We gave up the next Drexler?!?

:MARIS61:

Yes, his name was Luke Babbitt.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Here is the list of #14's since 1990

year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA Utah
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries Minnesota Fr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit
1999 William Avery Duke So. Minnesota
1998 Michael Dickerson Arizona Houston
1997 Maurice Taylor Michigan LA Clippers
1996 Predrag Stojakovic Greece Sacramento
1995 Eric Williams Providence Boston
1994 Yinka Dare George Washington New Jersey
1993 Scott Haskin Oregon State Indiana
1992 Malik Sealy St. John's Indiana
1991 Rich King Nebraska Seattle
1990 Travis Mays Texas Sacramento

 

[Strenuus]

Here is the list of #14's since 1990

year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA Utah
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries Minnesota Fr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit
1999 William Avery Duke So. Minnesota
1998 Michael Dickerson Arizona Houston
1997 Maurice Taylor Michigan LA Clippers
1996 Predrag Stojakovic Greece Sacramento
1995 Eric Williams Providence Boston
1994 Yinka Dare George Washington New Jersey
1993 Scott Haskin Oregon State Indiana
1992 Malik Sealy St. John's Indiana
1991 Rich King Nebraska Seattle
1990 Travis Mays Texas Sacramento

Or they could click on the link and have it go back to 1980.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here is the list of #14's since 1990

year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA Utah
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries Minnesota Fr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit
1999 William Avery Duke So. Minnesota
1998 Michael Dickerson Arizona Houston
1997 Maurice Taylor Michigan LA Clippers
1996 Predrag Stojakovic Greece Sacramento
1995 Eric Williams Providence Boston
1994 Yinka Dare George Washington New Jersey
1993 Scott Haskin Oregon State Indiana
1992 Malik Sealy St. John's Indiana
1991 Rich King Nebraska Seattle
1990 Travis Mays Texas Sacramento

So, one all-star (Peja) in the last 25 drafts and he didn't become a starter until his 3rd season. Yeah, missing out on the next Mateen Cleaves isn't going to cause me to miss any sleep.

BNM

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Here is the list of #14's since 1990

year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA Utah
2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee
2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston
2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston
2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix
2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden
2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers
2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah
2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota
2004 Kris Humphries Minnesota Fr. Utah
2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle
2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana
2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State
2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit
1999 William Avery Duke So. Minnesota
1998 Michael Dickerson Arizona Houston
1997 Maurice Taylor Michigan LA Clippers
1996 Predrag Stojakovic Greece Sacramento
1995 Eric Williams Providence Boston
1994 Yinka Dare George Washington New Jersey
1993 Scott Haskin Oregon State Indiana
1992 Malik Sealy St. John's Indiana
1991 Rich King Nebraska Seattle
1990 Travis Mays Texas Sacramento

What happened to Ronnie Brewer??

 

[theprunetang]

I was excited to add a top pick, but then or team was better than we expected. Awesome. Now I'm excited about that instead. And now we get the pick next year. I can't wait to see where this team can go! At least we didnt go all Hinkie and suck on purpose.

 

[theprunetang]

What happened to Ronnie Brewer??

I'm pretty sure he was on one of those d league teams that Cliff and Montero played against.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I'm pretty sure he was on one of those d league teams that Cliff and Montero played against.

Wow... He was a really good defender for a few years

 

[Pinwheel1]

Or they could click on the link and have it go back to 1980.

True. But I thought 1990 was more relevant since it was around the time time they went to two only 2 rounds. But actually the more I think about it, it was after 2006 when things started to change when the first one and dones started. Regardless the draft has changed over the years. It is not the same. I think there is a bigger need for player development with so many underclassmen entering the draft before they are ready. A lot more patience is needed too by fans and management.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I was happy with the tanking at first because I didn't really see the point in barely entering the playoff with a losing record. Now that we're the 5th seed win 6 more wins than losses, it obviously changes everything
Plus the fact that the pick would be lost eventually, it's really not a big deal

This is what I don't get though. There is only a 7 game difference currently. Those 7 wins make that drastic of a change?
Not in my mind. Yeah, being an 8th seed with a losing record would not be as good, but still better than half the conference even if it is a weaker year.

Those 7 additional wins didn't change my view though. With a young core like this that has had very little actual Playoff "On The Court" experience, a 1-4 first round exit still seems to be a bigger asset than another young project. Let these guys get a taste of the post season. IF they lose, let them get angry over it and see what it takes to make that next step for next year. To me any type of playoff scenario is a better asset than a 14th pick. Yes the 14th pick, we MIGHT find a diamond in the rough, but history shows its rare. Id much rather give these guys the experience and let them grow into next year.

 

[tester551]

One more thing to remember about this draft... There are a few teams that have multiple first round picks this year (Philly-3 or 4, Boston-3 including 5 seconds, Denver-somewhere between 2&4).

Since this is a "weak" draft, I would anticipate that some of these draft picks in the late 1st or second round be available for CASH or possibly a future pick (see the pick we are owed from Cleveland). IF Portland finds a prospect they really want (after pick 20 or so), there is a decent chance they can go get him.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

One more thing to remember about this draft... There are a few teams that have multiple first round picks this year (Philly-3 or 4, Boston-3 including 5 seconds, Denver-somewhere between 2&4).

Since this is a "weak" draft, I would anticipate that some of these draft picks in the late 1st or second round be available for CASH or possibly a future pick (see the pick we are owed from Cleveland). IF Portland finds a prospect they really want (after pick 20 or so), there is a decent chance they can go get him.

Bingo! Although I think it will take cash plus a 2nd rounder this year. And in some ways (for some teams) early 2nd rounders are more valuable than late 1st's. So just depends on who drops and how far we think they will slide.

 

[Pinwheel1]

This is what I don't get though. There is only a 7 game difference currently. Those 7 wins make that drastic of a change?
Not in my mind. Yeah, being an 8th seed with a losing record would not be as good, but still better than half the conference even if it is a weaker year.

Those 7 additional wins didn't change my view though. With a young core like this that has had very little actual Playoff "On The Court" experience, a 1-4 first round exit still seems to be a bigger asset than another young project. Let these guys get a taste of the post season. IF they lose, let them get angry over it and see what it takes to make that next step for next year. To me any type of playoff scenario is a better asset than a 14th pick. Yes the 14th pick, we MIGHT find a diamond in the rough, but history shows its rare. Id much rather give these guys the experience and let them grow into next year.

I have thinking this as well, especially since January when they started to play better. This might be an extreme example but what if a team started off 0-20 and ended up 40-42 and making the playoffs, would that team be less deserving than a team who started 20-0 and ended 50-32? From a fan's perspective I would view them about the same.

 

[Draco]

One more thing to remember about this draft... There are a few teams that have multiple first round picks this year (Philly-3 or 4, Boston-3 including 5 seconds, Denver-somewhere between 2&4).

Since this is a "weak" draft, I would anticipate that some of these draft picks in the late 1st or second round be available for CASH or possibly a future pick (see the pick we are owed from Cleveland). IF Portland finds a prospect they really want (after pick 20 or so), there is a decent chance they can go get him.

Yeah they say ideally a team doesn't want more than two first round picks in one year. After that you have diminishing returns. The days of buying picks of any value for cash are long gone; when franchises are worth $2 billion and teams can only pay $3 million, it's just not happening. But yes we most definitely could package a future pick for a selection this year.

I don't expect us to trade for a first round pick though; we will be very close to having a max free agent cap spot available if we renounce Hendo but keep our restricted free agents. I think Neil wants to keep that option available. The cap hold of a first round selection reduces that flexibility when we're right on the very edge of having enough room.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think a lot has to do with how N.O views Alexander, Montero, and PC. Have any of them developed over the year?
If he likes them there may not be room for rookies.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The biggest importance of the draft pick, though, is that it makes draft night (and everything leading up to it) fun!

Do we have a second round pick this year?

 

[crandc]

Blazers got Roy and Lillard in "weak" draft years.

Just think, if it was not for #14 picks, who would have been Kim Kardashian's first husband? (OK, I'll duck, don't throw anything too nasty at me.)

 

[illmatic99]

You guys are missing the point. You can't look at these picks in a vaccuum. #14 pick has more value than just the player picked at that position.

We got our starting center (on possibly the 5th best team in the conference) for the #23 pick last year.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You guys are missing the point. You can't look at these picks in a vaccuum. #14 pick has more value than just the player picked at that position.

We got our starting center (on possibly the 5th best team in the conference) for the #23 pick last year.

We also got our starting SF for a top 55 protected pick. We either had to give Denver our first round pick this year, or next, or two future second round picks. The way Olshey turns 2nd round picks into gold, maybe we're better off giving them one first round pick rather than missing the playoffs two years in a row and giving up 2 second round picks.

BNM

 

[Draco]

You guys are missing the point. You can't look at these picks in a vaccuum. #14 pick has more value than just the player picked at that position.

We got our starting center (on possibly the 5th best team in the conference) for the #23 pick last year.

Yeah the Denver trade was horrible.

But once it's was done; that's a sunk cost.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah the Denver trade was horrible.

But once it's was done; that's a sunk cost.

Yep, the trade was made when we were in win now mode - giving up future assets to fill an immediate need. Wes' injury changed all that in an instant. You could just see how deflated the team was entering the playoffs last year, and it showed in their performance. Remember how dominant Aldridge was in Games 1 and 2 in HOU two years ago? Compare that to how he sleepwalked through the playoffs last year. In his mind, he was already gone before the playoffs even started. We went from win now to retool in a heartbeat. Nobody could have predicted that at the time of the trade.

BTW, if you go back and look at the various online trade grades at the deadline last year, most of the "experts" gave us a A- or B+ for that trade - AT THE TIME. And, we weren't the only ones who got nothing in return for our trade deadline move. MEM got Jeff Green, HOU got Josh Smith and the DAL got Rajon Rondo. Technically, Josh Smith left the Rockets for nothing, but they also got him back for nothing (again), but I''d day the Rondo trade was an even bigger "unmitigated" disaster than our Afflalo trade.

BNM

 

[Pinwheel1]

You guys are missing the point. You can't look at these picks in a vaccuum. #14 pick has more value than just the player picked at that position.

We got our starting center (on possibly the 5th best team in the conference) for the #23 pick last year.

We also got our starting PF and our starting SF for nothing. Maybe Neil is a witch.......

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

We also got our starting PF and our starting SF for nothing. Maybe Neil is a witch.......

Warlock

 

[Draco]

Yep, the trade was made when we were in win now mode - giving up future assets to fill an immediate need. Wes' injury changed all that in an instant. You could just see how deflated the team was entering the playoffs last year, and it showed in their performance. Remember how dominant Aldridge was in Games 1 and 2 in HOU two years ago? Compare that to how he sleepwalked through the playoffs last year. In his mind, he was already gone before the playoffs even started. We went from win now to retool in a heartbeat. Nobody could have predicted that at the time of the trade.

BTW, if you go back and look at the various online trade grades at the deadline last year, most of the "experts" gave us a A- or B+ for that trade - AT THE TIME. And, we weren't the only ones who got nothing in return for our trade deadline move. MEM got Jeff Green, HOU got Josh Smith and the DAL got Rajon Rondo. Technically, Josh Smith left the Rockets for nothing, but they also got him back for nothing (again), but I''d day the Rondo trade was an even bigger "unmitigated" disaster than our Afflalo trade.

BNM

The trade was horrible. You can use a bunch of points to show Greg Oden was a great pick at the time; similarly turns out taking him was horrible.

Good points on other deadline deals not working; they almost never work out. If anything we should use this as evidence to do all roster moves during the offseason. Well unless some dumb team gives up a draft pick that becomes Lillard. That really just reinforces the point; don't trade for players during the season.