Hollinger - Denver Claims Northwest Division

[Nate Dogg]

Northwest Favorites: Nuggets
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com

Let's not ignore Denver's win in New Orleans on Wednesday, even though it came against a depleted Hornets roster that was missing Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic. While the Nuggets still have a few difficult games remaining on their slate (including Thursday's tilt in Dallas and visits to Portland and the Lakers), they also have six games that shape up as virtually automatic wins (home against the Clippers, Oklahoma City, Golden State, New York and Sacramento; at Minnesota).

Even if the Nuggets win only those six games the rest of the way, they'll finish with 52 wins, which is why they still project as the most likely team to win the Northwest Division (52.6 percent) despite their uninspiring play of late. The only way the Nuggets won't win the division, basically, is if either Portland or Utah gets very hot, or if the Nuggets lose one of those six games that I've pegged as wins.

Unless Dallas wins at home against the Nuggets and we beat them at home. We have a one game lead over them. If this doesn't happen then I believe (with Hollinger) of Denver winning the division.

 

[Nate Dogg]

People don't like my analysis? (30 people have read this topic so far)

 

[MAS RipCity]

Denver will drop 1 or 2 unexpectedly like they did @ Sac a week ago. They are on the verge of blowing up.

 

[Minstrel]

I agree with Hollinger's analysis...Denver should be the odd's-on favourite for the division. But Portland still has a non-trivial chance.

 

[Sug]

Regardless of who wins it this year, I think we have several coming in the next five to ten years.

 

[bigbailes]

in other news....water is wet. yea, at this point with their schedule they should take the NW division. and what about their game right now says they are "on the verge of a blowup"? we could still win the division but it's out of our hands, need some help from the bottom feeders.

 

[maxiep]

in other news....water is wet. yea, at this point with their schedule they should take the NW division. and what about their game right now says they are "on the verge of a blowup"? we could still win the division but it's out of our hands, need some help from the bottom feeders.

It's not out of our hands at all. We can put tremendous pressure on them by continuing our high level of play. I live in Denver part of the year and unfortunately have to watch these punks more than I'd like. They've been playing like crap for the past few weeks and have had some very lucky wins (e.g., Memphis). Their chemistry is fragile and explosive. Force them to face adversity and they'll turn on each other. NO without Chander and Peja is a non-playoff team. Dallas will be hungry and the Nugs will miss Nene.

If we win the games we're supposed to, and win a few we wouldn't have earlier in the year, we'll be the favorites for the NWD Crown.

 

[Pinwheel1]

This is nothing I didn't say two weeks ago. Denver by far and away had the easiest remaining schedule.

 

[THE HCP]

Go dallas!!!!!!!!!

 

[Foulzilla]

I don't think it's an unreasonable position. Of course I hope he's wrong.

What I find interesting is his playoff odds have Denver more likely to win the division, but Portland (and Utah) more likely to make the finals/championship. I wonder what weighting he has that suggests Denver won't do well in the playoffs despite a better regular season. It would be interesting to hear the reason.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yep, Denver has the easiest remaining schedule of the teams fighting for the 2nd - 8th seeds in the West, but that doesn't mean they will automatically win the division. Even if they hold serve and win the 6 gimmes, they could still go 6 - 4. If the Blazers go 7 - 3, it would come down to the secondardy tie breaker (winning percentage within division), which the Nuggets currently hold, but could change if they lose to Utah and Portland and the Blazers beat Utah and Denver.

If the Nuggs slip up and go 5 - 5, they Blazers could catch and pass them. Or, if the Blazers play out of their minds (like last night) and go 8 - 2, they'd likely finish ahead of Denver.

So, there are still plenty of scenarios where the Blazers could win the division. They need to keep playing every game like they did last night. If so, it could come down to the final game of the season - which is in Portland. If we get to that point, I'll take my chances on the Blazers.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

What I find interesting is his playoff odds have Denver more likely to win the division, but Portland (and Utah) more likely to make the finals/championship. I wonder what weighting he has that suggests Denver won't do well in the playoffs despite a better regular season. It would be interesting to hear the reason.

Point differential, generally considered to be a better measure of "true ability" than just record.

 

[Ed O]

Hollinger has Denver at 50%, Portland at one in three and Utah at one in six to claim the division.

That seems about right.

Ed O.

 

[MrJayremmie]

We are tied in 5th place in the West with 10 games remaining. I never would have dreamed of this... and we are only 1 game back with 3 weeks to go in the season. All we have to do is play good bball and we will be fine.

All we have to do is be with 1/2 a game by the final game of the regular season (when we play denver IN PORTLAND)...

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Does Denver have the tiebreaker on us? If we're within 1 game, and beat Denver, we'd be tied, and it'd be up to stats...

 

[alex42083]

I would so love to have that last game of the season here at home decide the NW Division. THAT would be such a great game to prepare us for the playoffs. Dallas needs to take care of business tonight.

 

[Minstrel]

Does Denver have the tiebreaker on us? If we're within 1 game, and beat Denver, we'd be tied, and it'd be up to stats...

It goes to conference records. If Portland wins the final meeting, the teams will tie in head-to-head, so the tie-breaker goes to whichever team has the best record in Western Conference games. Denver has the edge there.

 

[alex42083]

It goes to conference records. If Portland wins the final meeting, the teams will tie in head-to-head, so the tie-breaker goes to whichever team has the best record in Western Conference games. Denver has the edge there.

I think it goes to division records first before conference records. If it were us and say New Orleans tied, then it would go to conference records.
Regardless, Denver owns the tiebreaker with division records.

 

[Nate Dogg]

Just what I thought. Denver swept Dallas 4-0. There goes our chances for lock #4. We will either be the 6th or 7th seed at this point. Thats what I'm speculating.

 

[JDC]

Just what I thought. Denver swept Dallas 4-0. There goes our chances for lock #4. We will either be the 6th or 7th seed at this point. Thats what I'm speculating.[/QUOTE

Right now when you look at the remaining schedules, it looks more like we will be fighting with Houston for the 4 seed, while NO, Utah and Dallas fight it out for the last three. I think it ends up looking like this....

1) Lakers
2) Spurs
3) Nuggets
4) Rockets
5) Blazers
6) Jazz
7) Mavericks
8) Hornets (they're depleted right now, have lost 2 winnable games in a row and their last 8 games are brutal)

 

[anonymous gambler]

I'd be pretty happy playing Houston in the first round- we'd have a good chance of beating them- though I don't remember our record against them this season...

 

[Sinobas]

Just imagine, if Blake had hit his free throws in the Clipper game and we didn't fall to Philly at home, we'd be #3, only 1 game behind San Antonio for 2nd place. All these little mess-ups have come back to bite us in the butt.

But I have to agree that Denver has a firm control over the division. Utah has an extremely tough schedule, and ours is tough because of all the road games we have left to play.

To win the division we'll have to win the rest of hour home games, and beat the Clippers, Grizz and Thunder on the road. That would give us 53 wins. It's do able, but that loss at Philly really hurt.

 

[hasoos]

Just imagine, if Blake had hit his free throws in the Clipper game and we didn't fall to Philly at home, we'd be #3, only 1 game behind San Antonio for 2nd place. All these little mess-ups have come back to bite us in the butt.

But I have to agree that Denver has a firm control over the division. Utah has an extremely tough schedule, and ours is tough because of all the road games we have left to play.

To win the division we'll have to win the rest of hour home games, and beat the Clippers, Grizz and Thunder on the road. That would give us 53 wins. It's do able, but that loss at Philly really hurt.

I like to think that you always win some you shouldn't have won, and lose some you shouldn't have lost. The better you are, the fewer of both happen.

 

[bigbailes]

exactly, every team wins some they shouldn't and lose some they shouldn't, you just hope it evens out in the end. i don't think it's out of the relm of possibility for us to win the division but denver should have the higher odds at this point. i hope they do self destruct down the stretch but that is why they have billups, he won't let that happen. i think the fact that we've (basically) locked up a playoff spot and are talking about 3-7 is a sign that this season is a positive one, whatever happens in the playoffs aside. to me what happens in the postseason is what gauges our expectations for next season. patenice is a virtue and in this league it is steps that make up a champion, we all want to "win now" but just sit back and enjoy the ride of the next month.

 

[Natebishop3]

I like to think that you always win some you shouldn't have won, and lose some you shouldn't have lost. The better you are, the fewer of both happen.

You mean like Roy's shot against Houston? Or the comeback against New Orleans?

 

[hasoos]

You mean like Roy's shot against Houston? Or the comeback against New Orleans?

Yep. At least for one side of my argument. Losses to teams like the Clipps being the other side. The better you get, the fewer of those "sneak up on ya" losses happen, because you just put the wood to those low end teams.

 

[bigbailes]

the lakers lost to; Indy, sacto, miami, charlotte, and philly.
the celtics have lost to; indy, gs, knicks, charlotte, clippers, miami, milwaukie, and chicago.
the cavs have lost to; miami, chicago, washington, and indy.

these are the three elite teams in the league and they drop games they are "supposed" to win. i don't understand the rationale that we have to beat these teams every time or our world collapses.

 

[PapaG]

Hollinger also predicted roughly 41 wins prior to the season by his model, which at the time most rational posters knew was a junk prediction based on what the team was adding.

That said, predicting Denver at this point is hardly a longshot.

 

[KingSpeed]

It's not out of our hands at all. .

At the moment, it absolutely is out of our hands. If Denver wins the rest of their games except the one we have control over, Denver will win the division. If Denver loses a game before that, then it is back in our hands. But right now, it's not.