Hollinger: Using Computers To Determine Playoff Outcomes

[MAS RipCity]

Portland (64.3%) vs. Houston (34.7%): In many ways this is the most interesting first-round series. First of all, if somebody is going to beat the Lakers in the West, it will be one of these two teams. Second, things look fairly even on paper, especially after we account for the Rockets' improved play since Tracy McGrady went out: They went 22-8 minus the hobbled T-Mac.

But most of all I like this series because it will help us with a big question: What matters more, head-to-head matchups or overall regular-season performance? The Blazers undoubtedly have the edge in the latter category, winning 54 games with the league's fifth-best scoring margin and coming on like gangbusters down the stretch. Not only did the Blazers match Houston's 22-8 mark in their final 30 games, they did it without a loss to a single sub-.500 team.

However, Houston won two of the three head-to-head meetings, and the only one they lost came courtesy of a miraculous last-second shot by Portland's Brandon Roy. That has to give the Rockets confidence that they can end their string of first-round defeats, and if you believe experience matters, the fact that this is the Blazers' first rodeo also works to Houston's advantage.

That said, I like Portland here. The young Blazers' increasingly steady play over the second half of the season bodes well for their postseason, as does their playing style: The league's slowest-paced regular-season team isn't going to be thrown off by a slower postseason pace. My prediction: Blazers in 6

Los Angeles (54.9%) vs. Portland (45.1%): Plenty of people, I'm sure, don't expect the Lakers to have any problem with the youthful Trail Blazers, if Portland can handle Houston.

So let me throw out these numbers (with the scoring margin adjusted for home and road games):

Team A: 22-8, +7.9 adjusted scoring margin
Team B: 23-7, +6.9 adjusted scoring margin

Team A, as you might have guessed, is Portland since the All-Star break, and Team B is the Lakers. Over the past two months the Blazers have played at least as well as L.A., including beating them twice by a combined 25 points. That comes with a 7-foot asterisk since Andrew Bynum missed much of that time with an injury, but it shows the margin between the teams isn't nearly as large as people might think.

Or try these: 20, 20, 21, 35, 3, 12, 8, 15, 30 and 28. Those were the Blazers' margins of victory while taking 10 of their final 11 games. They weren't just beating teams, folks, they were beating the holy hell out of them. And their road woes ceased late in the year; the Blazers won seven of their final nine road games, and one of the losses was at Cleveland in overtime.

I expect the Lakers to advance, thanks to their home-court advantage and the return of Bynum, but this is going to be a much, much tougher series than people think, and I think I might be the only person outside Portland who wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers ended up prevailing.

My prediction: Lakers in 7

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playo...?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090417John Hollinger's PER Diem: April 17

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Conspiracy Theorists, read up:

Let's just say there are going to be some deflated-looking people at the TV networks if we get Portland-Orlando instead.

That's why it will never happen.

 

[Boob-No-More]

"the Blazers won seven of their final nine road games, and one of the losses was at Cleveland in overtime"

And that was without TWO starters on the second night of a back-to-back at the end of a 4-game-in-5-nights road trip.

BNM

 

[dpc]

They weren't just beating teams, folks, they were beating the holy hell out of them.

love that quote

 

[chris_in_pdx]

From an SI article about the 77-78 Blazers that went 50-10:

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1093313/index.htm

Before the All-Star Game, Portland won its last five games by margins of 23, 35, 35, 20 and 20 points. Last Friday night, after the Blazers had crushed Golden State 112-92, Rick Barry was approached warily by an interviewer. Barry had scored three baskets in the game, which was an improvement over the last time he played against Portland, when he scored, uh, one. Barry was asked were the Blazers good, better, or best?

"This team deserves any comparison anybody wants to make," Barry said. "The old Celtics, the Knicks, Philly with Wilt, L.A. with Wilt, anybody. It's a clinic whenever you play them. They get the ball out and ram it down your throat. Walton is a great center who does everything, and all the rest complement each other. The Blazers may be the most ideal team ever put together."

A few nights earlier, Milwaukee Coach Don Nelson had been equally adulatory. His talented young Bucks had exploded for 39 points in the first quarter, had shot 60% in the first half—and were trailing Portland 71-69. After the Blazers pulled ahead to win another laugher, 136-116, Nelson, who played on five championship Celtic teams, spoke of "situation basketball. Portland reacts to situations," he said. "Ninety percent of what they do is automatic, everyone picks it up. The Celtics had role-playing, defensive and offensive specialists. Here the attack is more general. Everybody on the Blazers can beat you at either end. They are a team for all time."

Seem familiar?