Hollinger's draft rater for 2009

[Nikolokolus]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-090618

A pretty interesting article by John Hollinger from ESPN insider and his draft rater tool that he's used for the past seven years. Looking at past years this tool has made some surprisingly accurate predictions about player value (Rondo, and Boozer being very highly rated for instance).

This year's list really surprised me, especially the number one guy.

1. Ty Lawson	      North Carolina	16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma               16.21
3. Tyreke Evans	      Memphis	        15.02
4. Austin Daye	     Gonzaga	        14.24
5. Stephen Curry	Davidson        14.18
6. Nick Calathes	Florida	        13.66
7. DeJuan Blair	Pittsburgh	        13.56
8. Danny Green	      North Carolina	13.28
9. Jonny Flynn	Syracuse	        12.99
10. James Harden	Arizona State	12.97
11. H. Thabeet	Connecticut	        12.90
12. Earl Clark	Louisville	        12.88

Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)

With Lawson projected to go anywhere from 19th to 23rd (depending on mock) and the bit I heard on the radio that the Blazers are trying to get him in for a workout what would you guys think of taking Lawson if he fell to us, or if we moved up a few spots to take him? I've been pretty luke warm on him, but the more I think about it, the more I wonder if he could end up being one helluva steal in this draft.

Thoughts?

 

[Nate4Prez]

I can't see the article cause I'm not an insider but was Rubio on this list? Was he not included due to his European stats?

 

[Crimson the Cat]

You know. Im with you. Although i thought quite highly of him after the tournament, the shine wore off. His size started weighing on me and his predraft measurements were not as good as his peers. When the team didnt bring him in And when i didnt hear any rumors about interest on our side i thought the team went cold on hime due to the trouble he got into last year. I hope they take a strong look at him. Ill add him to my list in the other thread.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

How did Bayless do in these rankings last year?

 

[Ed O]

Lawson is a shock, of course, but Daye might be even a bigger one.

PGs have been pretty weakly predicted by Hollinger's system (which had a ROUGH year last year) and so Lawson might just be a systematic variance issue.

This is the first good thing I've heard about Daye, though, in months.

Ed O.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

How did Bayless do in these rankings last year?

I believe he did ok. I remember Conley scored super high the year he was drafted.

 

[Sinobas]

I wonder why Hansbrough didn't rank high on that chart, he put up great numbers.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I can't see the article cause I'm not an insider but was Rubio on this list? Was he not included due to his European stats?

Hollinger said he'd discuss Rubio in an article next week; he has separate metrics for measuring Euro league stats

How did Bayless do in these rankings last year?

This comes from another insider article dated June 23rd last year: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-080622

Solid first-rounders

D.J. Augustin, Texas (14.88); Derrick Rose, Memphis (14.69); Mario Chalmers, Kansas (14.03); Jerryd Bayless, Arizona (14.03).

Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.

Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.

The bigger question is whether a team can justify taking Rose ahead of Michael Beasley, whose 19.19 is the best mark by anyone in the six years for which I have data. Yes, Beasley appears to be a space cadet and that's troubling, but what these numbers say to me is that the talent disparity is simply too big. That is, unless Beasley is such a train wreck off the court that he sabotages his own career, he's probably going to have much better results than Rose. In fact, you can make a strong case that Kevin Love should rank ahead of Rose on draft boards, as well.

Here's another interesting fact: Rose rated slightly higher as a wing (15.34) than as a point guard. That seems crazy, but he has the size to play the 2 if he has to. Just humor me and store that in the recesses of your brain in case you need to access it in a few years.

Finally, it's notable that Chalmers, though widely presumed to be a fringe first-rounder, rates even with Bayless and pretty close to Rose and Augustin.

Lawson is a shock, of course, but Daye might be even a bigger one.

PGs have been pretty weakly predicted by Hollinger's system (which had a ROUGH year last year) and so Lawson might just be a systematic variance issue.

This is the first good thing I've heard about Daye, though, in months.

Ed O.

Lawson is an enigma for me, but I guess you do have to look at his whole body of work as a college player, he's got more to go on than a typical one and done guy ... I'm still scratching my head on what he's going to do in the league, but hell if a midget like Jameer Nelson or DJ Augstin can make it I guess Lawson can too; I mean I always used to think of him as Ray Felton 2.0 because of the system they come from, but Lawson can shoot the rock, something Felton has never been able to do efficiently.

As for Daye, he's got great skill and length, if he ever packs on some muscle he might actually end up a decent player too (though I wouldn't bank on it).

 

[Nikolokolus]

I wonder why Hansbrough didn't rank high on that chart, he put up great numbers.

pure point rating (assists and turnover metric) is a pretty big part of his measurement, I'm guessing that despite Hansbrough's scoring and rebounding numbers there are some built-in knocks on him due to some other deficiencies.

 

[Cake]

I love Lawson. I've been very high on him since his Freshman year. When all is said and done, he'll be a top 5 player from this draft class...if not higher. I'm hoping he's a target for us.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

For full disclosure, I'd like a complete list of totally wrong predictions that that rater has made. One of them would be Batum (which, granted, is his seperate "Euro-rater") who he said "couldn't play".

I wonder how Raymond Felton looked through this system...

 

[RickyRubio]

I love Lawson. I've been very high on him since his Freshman year. When all is said and done, he'll be a top 5 player from this draft class...if not higher. I'm hoping he's a target for us.

I agree with you. I was really hoping we would draft Lawson last year. Then he went back to college... and won a championship.

I say if he falls, we should get him.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I agree with you. I was really hoping we would draft Lawson last year. Then he went back to college... and won a championship.

I say if he falls, we should get him.

I like Lawson, too. However, KP doesn't just see "if he falls". If he wants Lawson, he'll move up a couple spots to get him. Remember that to cash strapped teams, a high 2nd rounder is more valuable than a 1st rounder, and we have a high 2nd rounder to trade - that's what he did to get Batum.

 

[Nikolokolus]

For full disclosure, I'd like a complete list of totally wrong predictions that that rater has made. One of them would be Batum (which, granted, is his seperate "Euro-rater") who he said "couldn't play".

I wonder how Raymond Felton looked through this system...

The rater for college and euro players are based on different algorithms. But lets be real, Batum looked awfully passive in euroleague play and his stats were pretty underwhelming. Hollinger acknowledges that his tool is subject to error with one and done guys and very young prospects -- it's not perfect, it's just a way to help in making a prediction that he acknowledges should take a back seat to conventional wisdom.

As for Felton it had him rated so-so (a projected third year PER of 13.6 which is almost exactly the PER he produced). http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...umnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-History but it's not like Felton is a complete scrub, he did manage to put up 14 points and 7 assists in 37 minutes the past 3 years