Hollinger's Draft Rater released

[Nikolokolus]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100521

Insider only, but here are the tables and a couple of snippets of text.
Top 12 prospects

The Draft Rater has one other weak spot: It thrives on information and struggles when it lacks enough. As a result, players who leave school after just one season give it problems. Not only are they the youngest players, and thus the ones we're projecting farthest into the future, but what makes it even worse is that we have only one season of data to evaluate. That's the reason that one-and-done players have historically had the greatest error margin, which introduces an added level of uncertainty this season because three of the top five prospects are leaving school after one year.

One other note before we start: The Draft Rater produces a projection of a player's "peak" PER in Years 4-5, something that may not be apparent from looking at the rather underwhelming numbers next to each name. That's mostly a problem of the scarcity of NBA stars -- since the vast majority of players drafted will settle into the low teens in PER as NBA players, regardless of how good their college stats are, that's where the projections land for nearly all of them. In other words, there are very few sure things, even at the top of the draft.

The good news is that when it does spit out a "19.01" as it did for Kevin Durant in 2007, it's clear you have a sure thing.

There's no Durant in this year's crop, but there is one prospect who rates as an A-list talent, a freshman from the University of Kentucky named...

DeMarcus Cousins.

You were expecting somebody else?

Cousins has the fifth-highest rating in the Draft Rater's nine seasons evaluated. (The Draft Rater goes back to 2002, as college data from before that year is too spotty to use.)

Projected 1st rounders:


Projected late 1st, early 2nd rounders:


And the duds:

So we're all set here -- well, except for one thing.

Among those who haven't shown up on the list yet are several likely first-rounders, especially frontcourt players. There are several project-type big men in this draft that the Draft Rater isn't terribly excited about -- most fit the description of "long, athletic guys who blocked shots and got scouts excited but didn't do terribly much else." Some collegians of this type turn into players -- for instance, two years ago the Draft Rater hated Anthony Randolph, but he's become a legit starter in Golden State and still has upside to explore.

Nonetheless, history says scouts might be coloring in a few too many lines when they're projecting the future for Cole Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh, Hassan Whiteside and Ed Davis. It's possible that all four could go in the lottery, but the Draft Rater says their teams will regret it (see chart below). Three other possible first-round big men, Patrick Patterson, Craig Brackins and Solomon Alabi, don't engender warm feelings from Draft Rater either.

A couple of highly touted guards, Avery Bradley and Willie Warren, also failed to impress. Bradley can at least take solace in his one-and-done status -- the error rate has been higher for those players. And as a defensive specialist, his PER might not matter much anyway.

Something to think about anyway.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Trade the pick.

 

[hasoos]

Yep Cousins is one of the two guys I would really go after in this draft.

 

[Blaze01]

or Derrick Favors, both are appealing IMO....

 

[hasoos]

or Derrick Favors, both are appealing IMO....

And he was the 2nd! I am with you there.

 

[tlongII]

I'm not as sold on Favors. I think he will have some problems adjusting to the NBA. Moreso than Cousins, imo.