Hollingers power rankings has us 4th

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Jeff Sagarin's ratings also ranks the Blazers 4th.

:smiley-jumping:
 
Wow. He has us higher than the Magic, who are 12-4. That's just crazy, ain't it?
 
Not really. Seeing as the Magic have had a home-heavy schedule with an SOS (strength of schedule) of .407 while Portland has had a road heavy schedule with a SOS of .543, it seems logical that they are ranked higher in Hollinger's ranks.
 
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And we did beat Orlando in Orlando if that is factored in at this early stage.
 
Shooter said:
Wow. He has us higher than the Magic, who are 12-4. That's just crazy, ain't it?
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We've played the leagues toughest schedule so far and done pretty well. After this five game road trip is where it gets interesting, because 8 out of the next 11 games will be at home, where we are so far unbeaten.
 
8 out of 11 at home sounds good. As much as I would like to remain perfect at home, the chances of that are pretty remote. laws of nature would say that we have to lose at home sometime. But we should be able to come out of the home stand easily 6-2 or even 7-1. Granted if we got 8-0 I wouldn't complain about it at all!
 
what's even more amazing is that we've been 4th for 6 days now and this is at least the 3rd thread pointing it out.
 
crowTrobot said:
what's even more amazing is that we've been 4th for 6 days now and this is at least the 3rd thread pointing it out.
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What's even more crazy is DaRizzle PM'd me and claimed that the clock doesn't stop when a foul is called.
 
^oh WTF!!!! Im just reading some thread and then out of the blue...
 
drexlersdad said:
HOLY SHIT WE MOVED ABOVE THE CELTICS TO #3!!!!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking
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To bad we don't catch the knick on the second night of a back to back like Cleveland does. On Wednesday the Cavs should mop them up after we're through with them on Tuesday. Keep winning and good things happen, a loss and we fall a couple of spaces. Crazy thought that we're though so highly off huh? :crazy:
 
drexlersdad said:
HOLY SHIT WE MOVED ABOVE THE CELTICS TO #3!!!!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking
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It's all well and good I suppose, but it's a well documented fact that playoff quality teams don't start playing their best basketball until the second half of the season, so I take this ranking with a fat grain of salt.

I didn't put a whole lot of stock in Hollinger's rankings when the Blazers were habitually underestimated last year, and I won't put a whole lot of faith in it now that the Blazers are overrated.
 
Geez, you people insult Hollinger when his ratings don't favor us, but now that they do, you flaunt it. What's up with that?
 
drexlersdad said:
HOLY SHIT WE MOVED ABOVE THE CELTICS TO #3!!!!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking
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This is why you need to look at more than just stats when making these rankings. As great as the Blazers are playing, there is no way any sane person puts them ahead of the Celtics right now.

Record:
Celtics 16 - 2
Blazers 12 -6

Margin:
Celtics +8.11
Blazers +5.39

Record Last 10:
Celtics 9-1
Blazers 7-3

SOS Last 10
Celtics 0.490
Blazers 0.457

Streak:
Celtics Won 8
Blazers Won 4

The Blazers have played a tougher overall schedule (SOS = 0.533 vs. 0.502), and thanks to a couple recent blow outs, have a better margin in the last 10 games (11.30 vs. 9.30), but they have lost 4 more games than the Celtics and have lost more times in the last 10 games than the Celtics have all season.

And, it's not just about who has been hot lately. The Celtics have played a tougher schedule over the last 10 games, and have a better record over that span. So, the Celtics are better for the season, and better over the last 10 games. Yet, Hollinger's system has the Blazers ranked higher.

Any system that places a 12-6 team that's 7-3 in their last 10 games above a 16-2 team that's 9-1 over the last 10 games, is highly flawed.

BNM
 
Hollinger also has the 8 - 8 Mavericks (Last 10 games: 6 - 4) ranked two spots higher than the 12-6 Nuggets (Last 10 games: 8 - 2) even though SOS and Margin are very similar for both teams.

BNM
 
Shooter said:
Wow. He has us higher than the Magic, who are 12-4. That's just crazy, ain't it?
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Did we beat the Magic on their home court? Did the Magic have the horrible schedule Portland had so far? Easy pick.
 
Boob-No-More said:
Any system that places a 12-6 team that's 7-3 in their last 10 games above a 16-2 team that's 9-1 over the last 10 games, is highly flawed.
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I don't agree. Boston's played an easy schedule, and Portland has not.

Why are your simple numbers more convincing than Hollinger's more complicated formula?

Ed O.
 
Ed O said:
I don't agree. Boston's played an easy schedule, and Portland has not.

Why are your simple numbers more convincing than Hollinger's more complicated formula?

Ed O.
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Because his more complicated formula overcompensates for win margin?
 
Ed O said:
I don't agree. Boston's played an easy schedule, and Portland has not.
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Boston has not played an easy schedule. They have played a very slighty tougher than average schedule (0.502) . The Blazers schedule has been tougher (0.533), but not enough to justify putting the 12 - 6 team ahead of the 16 - 2 team. Especially, when Boston's schedle over the last 10 games has been tougher than Portland's (0.490 vs. 0.457). While their schedule has been a little tougher, the Blazers have lost 3x as many games as the Celtics.

Yes, the Blazers have played 3 more road games than the Celtics, but they've also lost 5 more road games. The Celtics are 7 - 1 on the road, the Blazers are 5 - 6 on the road.

Ed O said:
Why are your simple numbers more convincing than Hollinger's more complicated formula?
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They're not my simple numbers, they're his. I just choose to interpret them differently. To me, the team with the 16 - 2 record should be ranked higher than the 12 - 6 team - given that the SOS difference isn't extreme (like Orlando's), and Boston has a higher margin of victory and has played a tougher schedule over the last 10 games with superior (9 - 1 vs. 7 - 3) results.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Hollinger also has the 8 - 8 Mavericks (Last 10 games: 6 - 4) ranked two spots higher than the 12-6 Nuggets (Last 10 games: 8 - 2) even though SOS and Margin are very similar for both teams.

BNM
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Hollinger equates recent performance and home and road into his formula also.

HOLLINGER'S FORMULA
RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

SOS = Season win/loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

SOSL10 = Season win/loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

MARG = Team's average scoring margin

MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games

HOME = Team's home games

HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games

ROAD = Team's road games

ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games

GAMES = Team's total games

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Rankings-Intro
 
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Boob-No-More said:
This is why you need to look at more than just stats when making these rankings. As great as the Blazers are playing, there is no way any sane person puts them ahead of the Celtics right now.

Record:
Celtics 16 - 2
Blazers 12 -6

Margin:
Celtics +8.11
Blazers +5.39

Record Last 10:
Celtics 9-1
Blazers 7-3

SOS Last 10
Celtics 0.490
Blazers 0.457

Streak:
Celtics Won 8
Blazers Won 4

The Blazers have played a tougher overall schedule (SOS = 0.533 vs. 0.502), and thanks to a couple recent blow outs, have a better margin in the last 10 games (11.30 vs. 9.30), but they have lost 4 more games than the Celtics and have lost more times in the last 10 games than the Celtics have all season.

And, it's not just about who has been hot lately. The Celtics have played a tougher schedule over the last 10 games, and have a better record over that span. So, the Celtics are better for the season, and better over the last 10 games. Yet, Hollinger's system has the Blazers ranked higher.

Any system that places a 12-6 team that's 7-3 in their last 10 games above a 16-2 team that's 9-1 over the last 10 games, is highly flawed.

BNM
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Does Hollinger factor in that the Celts are a well oiled veteran team, and we're in fact the youngest team in the NBA? (Raef doesn't count, he hasn't played a game, and is just a contract.) AND that we're still sputtering and popping like a high performance engine that's out of tune?

By the way Boobs, I'm a big fan or yours, keep up the good work.
 
Does Hollinger factor in that the Celts are a well oiled veteran team, and we're in fact the youngest team in the NBA?
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No...there is no emotion in Holligers rankings
It is a mathematical equation everybody
 
DaRizzle said:
No...there is no emotion in Holligers rankings
It is a mathematical equation everybody
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Which is kind of mind blowing, because this blazer team is not even close to firing on all cylinders yet.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Because his more complicated formula overcompensates for win margin?
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That's conclusory.

In fact, his equation is a better indicator of success than simple win-loss percentage.

If it were not, he wouldn't waste his time and nobody at ESPN.com would pay him for what he does.

Ed O.
 
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