Honest question for Stotts supporters

[CupWizier]

I think the point is that while ISO ball is not optimal (and we certainly saw that last night), the offense is performing at a level that could/should be conducive to winning, if the team were able to perform acceptably on the other end. For all the kvetching about low assists and "ballhogging", the overall offensive efficiency is actually pretty good.

Last 4 games have been games that we could have won and would have likely won last year. For whatever reason this team is struggling to bring it home and is in a rut. Hopefully the new year will help turn it around as we can't keep losing games we should win or can win.

 

[Tince]

my answer is probably a combination of 'it's complicated' and it's a 'chicken-and-egg' thing

start with a couple of disclaimers:
* I don't like Olshey, at all
* I really don't like the Dame/CJ pairing; I think they are way too redundant in style, size, tendencies, and bad defense

yeah, that's bias, but it is the lens I look thru when analyzing Portland

let's hop in the way-back machine and jump 4 1/2 years into the past. My disdain for Olshey wasn't as strong back then, but it was there. I hated the way he cheap-screwed together his first two Portland benches. They were historically bad, and he had options he chose not to pursue. I also hated that he made max offers to Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe, and a max-MLE offer to Spenser Hawes. Ok, a GM can't be perfect, but still, those were poor moves in my view and at that time it was apparent what a weak pick Meyers was

anyway, it's 2015 and Matthews has ruptured his Achilles. Portland limps into the playoffs against Memphis. They get hammered 4-1 and their season ends in a whimper. Worse, is that Memphis sets the template for defending Dame and the Blazers by blanketing him with the defense of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, and Conley and always having Gasol or Green hedging or trapping Dame at every screen. That template becomes Portland's biggest weakness. But there's a report from the Blazer locker room after the elimination game...I think it was either Quick or Haynes reporting, about how Olshey was really, really excited about how CJ had performed. How Olshey was chortling to Stotts in an "I told you so" fashion about CJ...this minutes after the season ended. If I'm recalling things wrong, let me know

fast forward a little to the off-season; Batum has been traded and Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez all walk. Olshey has cleared the roster and one of the main things he's cleared is any competition CJ has for playing time. He is asked several times about the Blazers not having a backup PG and he keeps insisting that CJ can be a great backup PG.

and to this day, he's never added a decent backup PG, and my suspicion is he knows if Stotts had that option, he'd use it over CJ at times. For 4.4 seasons now, Dame has been the only PG on the roster, and I think that's always been a big weakness. And of course, the Dame-centric defensive template that Memphis set has killed Portland in the playoffs every damn year since, in no small part because Portland has nobody besides Dame who can consistently run an offense against strong defensive resistance. If an opponent can shut down Dame they take out Portland's best scorer and the only guy who runs the offense. That's always worth the effort

so when you ask if it's the coach, I think first that Stotts has not had good tools in his toolbox to adjust away from all the one-on-one possessions that CJ brings to the floor. But a tool he does have is he controls the offense and the schemes and the rotations, and he could have developed better off-ball action after more than 4 years than he has. And the thing is that while CJ is a very clever ball-handler, prone to over-dribbling, he's not efficient in one-on-one because he's terrible at getting to the foul line. His iso-ball is featured in the offense to the overall detriment of the offense....IMO, Stotts could easily throttle that back and implement more accountability for selfish play

so yeah, I blame Stotts for some of this. But I blame Olshey too. For instance, if Portland had a backup PG like Rondo (just an example), I don't believe we'd see all this one-on-one bullshit. But Rondo is an actual PG. Napier and Curry aren't, neither is Simons, and for damn sure, Turner, Hezonja, and Bazemore aren't. And of course, CJ isn't. But that's who Sotts has been stuck with

This is SO good. I agree with a vast majority of what you say and how you broke it down. Because I'm often challenging theories of people who are saying Stotts is a bad coach you (and others) probably assume I think Stotts is a great coach... I don't. I think the problems we are experiencing involve much of what you listed above. Based off of some of the posts, some think Stotts is 100% of the problem. You obviously are not one of those people. If we had to guess what percentage of the problem Stotts is, you might have a slightly higher percentage than me, and you might be right!

Again, great stuff, appreciate it!

 

[HailBlazers]

Last 4 games have been games that we could have won and would have likely won last year. For whatever reason this team is struggling to bring it home and is in a rut. Hopefully the new year will help turn it around as we can't keep losing games we should win or can win.

Because we can't get stops when we need too?

 

[CupWizier]

Because we can't get stops when we need too?

That's definitely an issue but I thought last night we had some good defense but there were some breakdowns at times.

 

[TBpup]

my answer is probably a combination of 'it's complicated' and it's a 'chicken-and-egg' thing

start with a couple of disclaimers:
* I don't like Olshey, at all
* I really don't like the Dame/CJ pairing; I think they are way too redundant in style, size, tendencies, and bad defense

yeah, that's bias, but it is the lens I look thru when analyzing Portland

let's hop in the way-back machine and jump 4 1/2 years into the past. My disdain for Olshey wasn't as strong back then, but it was there. I hated the way he cheap-screwed together his first two Portland benches. They were historically bad, and he had options he chose not to pursue. I also hated that he made max offers to Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe, and a max-MLE offer to Spenser Hawes. Ok, a GM can't be perfect, but still, those were poor moves in my view and at that time it was apparent what a weak pick Meyers was

anyway, it's 2015 and Matthews has ruptured his Achilles. Portland limps into the playoffs against Memphis. They get hammered 4-1 and their season ends in a whimper. Worse, is that Memphis sets the template for defending Dame and the Blazers by blanketing him with the defense of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, and Conley and always having Gasol or Green hedging or trapping Dame at every screen. That template becomes Portland's biggest weakness. But there's a report from the Blazer locker room after the elimination game...I think it was either Quick or Haynes reporting, about how Olshey was really, really excited about how CJ had performed. How Olshey was chortling to Stotts in an "I told you so" fashion about CJ...this minutes after the season ended. If I'm recalling things wrong, let me know

fast forward a little to the off-season; Batum has been traded and Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez all walk. Olshey has cleared the roster and one of the main things he's cleared is any competition CJ has for playing time. He is asked several times about the Blazers not having a backup PG and he keeps insisting that CJ can be a great backup PG.

and to this day, he's never added a decent backup PG, and my suspicion is he knows if Stotts had that option, he'd use it over CJ at times. For 4.4 seasons now, Dame has been the only PG on the roster, and I think that's always been a big weakness. And of course, the Dame-centric defensive template that Memphis set has killed Portland in the playoffs every damn year since, in no small part because Portland has nobody besides Dame who can consistently run an offense against strong defensive resistance. If an opponent can shut down Dame they take out Portland's best scorer and the only guy who runs the offense. That's always worth the effort

so when you ask if it's the coach, I think first that Stotts has not had good tools in his toolbox to adjust away from all the one-on-one possessions that CJ brings to the floor. But a tool he does have is he controls the offense and the schemes and the rotations, and he could have developed better off-ball action after more than 4 years than he has. And the thing is that while CJ is a very clever ball-handler, prone to over-dribbling, he's not efficient in one-on-one because he's terrible at getting to the foul line. His iso-ball is featured in the offense to the overall detriment of the offense....IMO, Stotts could easily throttle that back and implement more accountability for selfish play

so yeah, I blame Stotts for some of this. But I blame Olshey too. For instance, if Portland had a backup PG like Rondo (just an example), I don't believe we'd see all this one-on-one bullshit. But Rondo is an actual PG. Napier and Curry aren't, neither is Simons, and for damn sure, Turner, Hezonja, and Bazemore aren't. And of course, CJ isn't. But that's who Sotts has been stuck with

This....this...this....so much this! To the point that, @wizenheimer , have you been sneaking over and reading my journal?

 

[Tince]

This....this...this....so much this! To the point that, @wizenheimer , have you been sneaking over and reading my journal?

This can't possibly the best stuff from your journal, can it?

 

[Strenuus]

Last 4 games have been games that we could have won and would have likely won last year. For whatever reason this team is struggling to bring it home and is in a rut. Hopefully the new year will help turn it around as we can't keep losing games we should win or can win.

If by new year you mean the 2020-2021 season then I agree with you.

 

[tester551]

my answer is probably a combination of 'it's complicated' and it's a 'chicken-and-egg' thing

start with a couple of disclaimers:
* I don't like Olshey, at all
* I really don't like the Dame/CJ pairing; I think they are way too redundant in style, size, tendencies, and bad defense

yeah, that's bias, but it is the lens I look thru when analyzing Portland

let's hop in the way-back machine and jump 4 1/2 years into the past. My disdain for Olshey wasn't as strong back then, but it was there. I hated the way he cheap-screwed together his first two Portland benches. They were historically bad, and he had options he chose not to pursue. I also hated that he made max offers to Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe, and a max-MLE offer to Spenser Hawes. Ok, a GM can't be perfect, but still, those were poor moves in my view and at that time it was apparent what a weak pick Meyers was

anyway, it's 2015 and Matthews has ruptured his Achilles. Portland limps into the playoffs against Memphis. They get hammered 4-1 and their season ends in a whimper. Worse, is that Memphis sets the template for defending Dame and the Blazers by blanketing him with the defense of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, and Conley and always having Gasol or Green hedging or trapping Dame at every screen. That template becomes Portland's biggest weakness. But there's a report from the Blazer locker room after the elimination game...I think it was either Quick or Haynes reporting, about how Olshey was really, really excited about how CJ had performed. How Olshey was chortling to Stotts in an "I told you so" fashion about CJ...this minutes after the season ended. If I'm recalling things wrong, let me know

fast forward a little to the off-season; Batum has been traded and Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez all walk. Olshey has cleared the roster and one of the main things he's cleared is any competition CJ has for playing time. He is asked several times about the Blazers not having a backup PG and he keeps insisting that CJ can be a great backup PG.

and to this day, he's never added a decent backup PG, and my suspicion is he knows if Stotts had that option, he'd use it over CJ at times. For 4.4 seasons now, Dame has been the only PG on the roster, and I think that's always been a big weakness. And of course, the Dame-centric defensive template that Memphis set has killed Portland in the playoffs every damn year since, in no small part because Portland has nobody besides Dame who can consistently run an offense against strong defensive resistance. If an opponent can shut down Dame they take out Portland's best scorer and the only guy who runs the offense. That's always worth the effort

so when you ask if it's the coach, I think first that Stotts has not had good tools in his toolbox to adjust away from all the one-on-one possessions that CJ brings to the floor. But a tool he does have is he controls the offense and the schemes and the rotations, and he could have developed better off-ball action after more than 4 years than he has. And the thing is that while CJ is a very clever ball-handler, prone to over-dribbling, he's not efficient in one-on-one because he's terrible at getting to the foul line. His iso-ball is featured in the offense to the overall detriment of the offense....IMO, Stotts could easily throttle that back and implement more accountability for selfish play

so yeah, I blame Stotts for some of this. But I blame Olshey too. For instance, if Portland had a backup PG like Rondo (just an example), I don't believe we'd see all this one-on-one bullshit. But Rondo is an actual PG. Napier and Curry aren't, neither is Simons, and for damn sure, Turner, Hezonja, and Bazemore aren't. And of course, CJ isn't. But that's who Sotts has been stuck with

I nominate this for post of the year!

Agree 100%

 

[tester551]

That's definitely an issue but I thought last night we had some good defense but there were some breakdowns at times.

You must have missed the entire 4th quarter. There were some major breakdowns more often than 'at times'.

In fact, we probably ought to phrase it as, 'there was decent defense at times'. The majority of the 4th was eye gouging bad

 

[tester551]

firestotts.com is available $11.99 for the first year

The first step would be fireolshey.com
But someone already has that one taken

 

[CupWizier]

If by new year you mean the 2020-2021 season then I agree with you.

I don't. I actually root every game for the team to succeed. As a fan why wouldn't anyone do the same?

 

[CupWizier]

You must have missed the entire 4th quarter. There were some major breakdowns more often than 'at times'.

In fact, we probably ought to phrase it as, 'there was decent defense at times'. The majority of the 4th was eye gouging bad

Nope. Saw the whole game.

 

[TBpup]

It has to end.

Not that a new coach is going to come in an miraculously turn this club around, but instead to at least try to instill growth and accountability for the younger players. As of now, I see none.

Ant is turning in to CJ 2.0. Little came in last night and thought a jab-step 20'er early in the shot clock was a good decision. GTJ is a black hole either because that is just his nature or he fears if the ball goes back to Simons, he will never ever ever ever ever see it again. When Skal was playing, he rarely would take the one type of shot that he is actually pretty good at...the wide open mid-range jumper.

And now worst of all, Dame is starting to sound like Stotts. The 'we just got outplayed' quote last night sounded way to much like, 'we just have to make shots' drivel from Stotts. THAT they were outplayed was obvious to Stevie Wonder. What about the 'how'? HOW the heck do you lose by 24 to the more than hapless Knicks? HOW does their back up center shoot 11-11 with not a single damn adjustment the entire game? HOW do you continue to have so little ball movement?

Stotts has enabled the veterans to pretty much do whatever they want on offense and have zero accountability on defense but now it is seeping over into the next generation and that just can't be. At this point, this is a development year. Ant, Little, Trent and Skal (if he returns) need a lot of run to see what you actually have on your roster...but with discipline.

It's not about winning games right now as that ship has sailed. But it is about HOW a team plays and more and more, this is becoming an apathetic free-for-all that is embarrassing due to lack of effort. Lose? Fine....but don't turn in the performances we have seen lately. Losing to the Lakers in a somewhat competitive manner has no shame....they just have more talent. But the regurgatated stomach bile that has been the last two efforts is unexceptable........period!

 

[tester551]

It has to end.

Not that a new coach is going to come in an miraculously turn this club around, but instead to at least try to instill growth and accountability for the younger players. As of now, I see none.

Ant is turning in to CJ 2.0. Little came in last night and thought a jab-step 20'er early in the shot clock was a good decision. GTJ is a black hole either because that is just his nature or he fears if the ball goes back to Simons, he will never ever ever ever ever see it again. When Skal was playing, he rarely would take the one type of shot that he is actually pretty good at...the wide open mid-range jumper.

And now worst of all, Dame is starting to sound like Stotts. The 'we just got outplayed' quote last night sounded way to much like, 'we just have to make shots' drivel from Stotts. THAT they were outplayed was obvious to Stevie Wonder. What about the 'how'? HOW the heck do you lose by 24 to the more than hapless Knicks? HOW does their back up center shoot 11-11 with not a single damn adjustment the entire game? HOW do you continue to have so little ball movement?

Stotts has enabled the veterans to pretty much do whatever they want on offense and have zero accountability on defense but now it is seeping over into the next generation and that just can't be. At this point, this is a development year. Ant, Little, Trent and Skal (if he returns) need a lot of run to see what you actually have on your roster...but with discipline.

It's not about winning games right now as that ship has sailed. But it is about HOW a team plays and more and more, this is becoming an apathetic free-for-all that is embarrassing due to lack of effort. Lose? Fine....but don't turn in the performances we have seen lately. Losing to the Lakers in a somewhat competitive manner has no shame....they just have more talent. But the regurgatated stomach bile that has been the last two efforts is unexceptable........period!

Agreed. But I think it needs to start at the top with Neil.

 

[illmatic99]

It has to end.

Not that a new coach is going to come in an miraculously turn this club around, but instead to at least try to instill growth and accountability for the younger players. As of now, I see none.

Ant is turning in to CJ 2.0. Little came in last night and thought a jab-step 20'er early in the shot clock was a good decision. GTJ is a black hole either because that is just his nature or he fears if the ball goes back to Simons, he will never ever ever ever ever see it again. When Skal was playing, he rarely would take the one type of shot that he is actually pretty good at...the wide open mid-range jumper.

And now worst of all, Dame is starting to sound like Stotts. The 'we just got outplayed' quote last night sounded way to much like, 'we just have to make shots' drivel from Stotts. THAT they were outplayed was obvious to Stevie Wonder. What about the 'how'? HOW the heck do you lose by 24 to the more than hapless Knicks? HOW does their back up center shoot 11-11 with not a single damn adjustment the entire game? HOW do you continue to have so little ball movement?

Stotts has enabled the veterans to pretty much do whatever they want on offense and have zero accountability on defense but now it is seeping over into the next generation and that just can't be. At this point, this is a development year. Ant, Little, Trent and Skal (if he returns) need a lot of run to see what you actually have on your roster...but with discipline.

It's not about winning games right now as that ship has sailed. But it is about HOW a team plays and more and more, this is becoming an apathetic free-for-all that is embarrassing due to lack of effort. Lose? Fine....but don't turn in the performances we have seen lately. Losing to the Lakers in a somewhat competitive manner has no shame....they just have more talent. But the regurgatated stomach bile that has been the last two efforts is unexceptable........period!

Seeing the Knicks and their new coach run more sets on offense while playing an engaging, aggressive defense while we played iso ball and let guys have wide open lanes to the basket was a startling contrast. It's the first time I've thought that Terry has actually lost this team. Injuries be damned but losses to GS/CLE/NY where we get thoroughly outclassed on either end just shouldn't happen.

 

[illmatic99]

Agreed. But I think it needs to start at the top with Neil.

I don't think he's to blame for all this. The Whiteside move was a gamble worth taking-- we have even seen how useful he can be while engaged. But I get why he isn't. From the moment he's gotten here, the talk has been about how Dame/CJ will get him in line, and while that's good in theory, it is reliant on him conforming to them, rather than vice versa. How many lobs have our guards thrown him this season? I think the Knicks threw more to Robinson in one night last game than Dame has thrown to HW all season. And he's on the last year of a deal with his replacement on a fast tracked rehab which will result in his benching. I don't think I'd have much motivation either to change my style of play all for half a season.

Neil also managed to get rid of ET's contract without giving up an asset. And he got a legit player in Hood for a bargain. Also expected Pau to at least play a few minutes every night, but that didn't work out either (his contract was great, btw). The Mario and Tolliver additions were inexcusable, but in reality they were third string players. The whole plan unfortunately was heavily reliant on Zach and Ant actually becoming starting level contributors. Always thought Neil's moves would bite us in the ass in the playoffs because of the lack of forward depth, but I figured we'd make moves at the deadline to address that.

I think our problem moreso has been the lack of cohesion with the pieces we have left after all the injuries. Yes this is an excuse, but I put it more on Terry.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't think he's to blame for all this. The Whiteside move was a gamble worth taking-- we have even seen how useful he can be while engaged. But I get why he isn't. From the moment he's gotten here, the talk has been about how Dame/CJ will get him in line, and while that's good in theory, it is reliant on him conforming to them, rather than vice versa. How many lobs have our guards thrown him this season? I think the Knicks threw more to Robinson in one night last game than Dame has thrown to HW all season. And he's on the last year of a deal with his replacement on a fast tracked rehab which will result in his benching. I don't think I'd have much motivation either to change my style of play all for half a season.

Neil also managed to get rid of ET's contract without giving up an asset. And he got a legit player in Hood for a bargain. Also expected Pau to at least play a few minutes every night, but that didn't work out either (his contract was great, btw). The Mario and Tolliver additions were inexcusable, but in reality they were third string players. The whole plan unfortunately was heavily reliant on Zach and Ant actually becoming starting level contributors. Always thought Neil's moves would bite us in the ass in the playoffs because of the lack of forward depth, but I figured we'd make moves at the deadline to address that.

I think our problem moreso has been the lack of cohesion with the pieces we have left after all the injuries. Yes this is an excuse, but I put it more on Terry.

Olshey has been in charge since May, 2012. We're approaching 8 years. And in that time, whenever things are going well for Portland, Olshey supporters will give Olshey all kinds of credit. And, when things are going badly, the same Olshey supporters will trot out excuse after excuse after excuse for why Olshey wasn't responsible...

I mean, who can forget the classic: "Paul Allen made Olshey spend all that money on bad players in 2016". That's how it went for years...when a move turned out good it was Olshey; when a move turned out bad it was Paul Allen

now, you're saying that Olshey got rid of Turner's contract, but the reality is he just traded a bad Turner expiring for a bad Bazemore expiring. It's still the 2016 albatross contract on Portland's books. Olshey had the Ezeli situation as a template to apply in the Pau situation. Just like Ezeli, Pau had off-season surgery (on a stress fracture which is even more risky), but Pau was 10 years older. Stupid risk. As far as Hezonja being 3rd string...no, that's not at all what Olshey claimed when he signed him and it was obvious that Olshey wanted Hezonja to fill Turner's role and run the 2nd unit offense....even though nothing in Hezonja's career really indicated he could. And nobody was compelling Olshey to put so much responsibility on Simons and Collins, leaving nothing behind either player. That was all Olshey forcing Stotts to play them, and it's turned out to be a bad bet this year

I'll stipulate that in many ways Olshey's hands were tied last summer, but Olshey supplied the rope and tied his hands himself. It sure looks like Portland is on a treadmill. It might be a little higher level treadmill than the standard, but still a treadmill. The architect is the GM

 

[illmatic99]

Olshey has been in charge since May, 2012. We're approaching 8 years. And in that time, whenever things are going well for Portland, Olshey supporters will give Olshey all kinds of credit. And, when things are going badly, the same Olshey supporters will trot out excuse after excuse after excuse for why Olshey wasn't responsible...

I mean, who can forget the classic: "Paul Allen made Olshey spend all that money on bad players in 2016". That's how it went for years...when a move turned out good it was Olshey; when a move turned out bad it was Paul Allen

now, you're saying that Olshey got rid of Turner's contract, but the reality is he just traded a bad Turner expiring for a bad Bazemore expiring. It's still the 2016 albatross contract on Portland's books. Olshey had the Ezeli situation as a template to apply in the Pau situation. Just like Ezeli, Pau had off-season surgery (on a stress fracture which is even more risky), but Pau was 10 years older. Stupid risk. As far as Hezonja being 3rd string...no, that's not at all what Olshey claimed when he signed him and it was obvious that Olshey wanted Hezonja to fill Turner's role and run the 2nd unit offense....even though nothing in Hezonja's career really indicated he could. And nobody was compelling Olshey to put so much responsibility on Simons and Collins, leaving nothing behind either player. That was all Olshey forcing Stotts to play them, and it's turned out to be a bad bet this year

I'll stipulate that in many ways Olshey's hands were tied last summer, but Olshey supplied the rope and tied his hands himself. It sure looks like Portland is on a treadmill. It might be a little higher level treadmill than the standard, but still a treadmill. The architect is the GM

As I have repeatedly said here over the past three years, Neil deserves a ton of the blame for 2016. I have never once said PA is all to blame for that summer -- maybe others have, but not me. But getting out of that hell with all our future assets intact is much better than what other teams have to show for their 2016.

I thought his moves in the summer of 2019 were perfectly fine as I've outlined today.

 

[James lamphear]

I don't mind us firing Stotts at all but my question can Dame and CJ adjust there game to fit with the new coach. I think Dame can but I am not sure about CJ though just the way he plays now with Stotts.

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

I don't mind us firing Stotts at all but my question can Dame and CJ adjust there game to fit with the new coach. I think Dame can but I am not sure about CJ though just the way he plays now with Stotts.

CJ will be 29 next season... he is not changing. Every off season he says he will work on passing and nothing changes. ISO ball is in his DNA... it is what it is. Good player, but not a fit next to Dame.

 

[royo]

CJ will be 29 next season... he is not changing. Every off season he says he will work on passing and nothing changes. ISO ball is in his DNA... it is what it is. Good player, but not a fit next to Dame.

CJ can play better basketball and he does, when Lillard is out.

 

[wizenheimer]

As I have repeatedly said here over the past three years, Neil deserves a ton of the blame for 2016. I have never once said PA is all to blame for that summer -- maybe others have, but not me. But getting out of that hell with all our future assets intact is much better than what other teams have to show for their 2016.

I thought his moves in the summer of 2019 were perfectly fine as I've outlined today.

don't get me wrong illmatic, I wasn't going after your post as much as I was using it as an excuse to climb up on a soap box. I'm seeing lots of blame being passed around for the mess right now: Stotts and schemes, Stotts and accountability, hero-ball, Dame's leadership, Whiteside and hollow stats, crappy bench. None of this stuff just fell out of the sky, it all loops back to the front office

 

[illmatic99]

don't get me wrong illmatic, I wasn't going after your post as much as I was using it as an excuse to climb up on a soap box. I'm seeing lots of blame being passed around for the mess right now: Stotts and schemes, Stotts and accountability, hero-ball, Dame's leadership, Whiteside and hollow stats, crappy bench. None of this stuff just fell out of the sky, it all loops back to the front office

The good thing is, it's mostly fixable with better health. We aren't hurt long term with anything that was done in 2019.

 

[wizenheimer]

The good thing is, it's mostly fixable with better health. We aren't hurt long term with anything that was done in 2019.

CJ's extension looks awful bloated right now and hurts his trade value, IMO. Of course, he won't be traded as long as Olshey is here. I think locking up the Dame/CJ duo for 5 more years will be a long term obstacle

 

[illmatic99]

CJ's extension looks awful bloated right now and hurts his trade value, IMO. Of course, he won't be traded as long as Olshey is here. I think locking up the Dame/CJ duo for 5 more years will be a long term obstacle

It isn't. I mentioned in the other thread.

In 21-22, CJ will be the 28th highest paid player in the league, and will only keep dropping in the list after extensions kick in this upcoming summer and the one after. 31 million is not a death sentence, nor an obstacle. He's still a productive player in the middle of his prime. That contract is tradeable to the right team.

Also, fwiw. Dame is currently on track to be the highest paid player in the league in 22/23/and 24.

In aggregate, I think this is OK because we got such a steal with Nurk. In 2021, the three of them combined will make 85 mil, which is pretty decent compared to the other contracts around the league. As a reference, the combo of Dame/CJ/Whiteside make the same right now.

 

[wizenheimer]

It isn't. I mentioned in the other thread.

In 21-22, CJ will be the 28th highest paid player in the league, .

ok then, 26th this year, 28th two seasons from now

currently, CJ ranks (among players with 300 minutes or more):

96th in PER
193rd in TS% (tied with Pat Connaughton)
159th in eFG%
304th in FT rate
107th in assist rate (tied with Andrew Wiggins)
204th in winshares/48
147th in box plus/minus
96th in value over replacement (a stat influenced by possessions used, minutes, and opportunity)

CJ is/will be top-30 in salary; it would be helpful if he was top-30 in just one meaningful statistical category, but he can't even crack top-90. The only way you can get him into a top ranking is by narrowing the criteria to a really small definition like 'mid-range-shooting-percentage-after-37-dribbles'

something else...you mentioned how he'd be dropping lower as more extensions and contracts are signed, and that's true. But, just in the last 4 games, it's been apparent that Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker have passed CJ. And in the next 2-3 years, it's probably the case that some players like Ja Morant, Trae Young, Malcolm Brogdon, Jalen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Fred Van Vleet, Brandon Ingram, Kelly Oubre, Pascal Siakam (already passed), Jayson Tatum, Jaren Jackson, Domantas Sabonis, and Bam Adebayo will pass CJ, if they haven't already. Sure, some aging stars will fade but there are a lot of good young players lined up, and the more of those that pass CJ, the worse his contract is

finally, it's not all just on CJ. It's on the pairing of Dame & CJ as well. Their synergy is mostly just 'my-turn-your-turn-my-turn-again'. They are simply too redundant in size, style, tendencies, bad habits, and weak defense.

 

[illmatic99]

ok then, 26th this year, 28th two seasons from now

currently, CJ ranks (among players with 300 minutes or more):

96th in PER
193rd in TS% (tied with Pat Connaughton)
159th in eFG%
304th in FT rate
107th in assist rate (tied with Andrew Wiggins)
204th in winshares/48
147th in box plus/minus
96th in value over replacement (a stat influenced by possessions used, minutes, and opportunity)

CJ is/will be top-30 in salary; it would be helpful if he was top-30 in just one meaningful statistical category, but he can't even crack top-90. The only way you can get him into a top ranking is by narrowing the criteria to a really small definition like 'mid-range-shooting-percentage-after-37-dribbles'

something else...you mentioned how he'd be dropping lower as more extensions and contracts are signed, and that's true. But, just in the last 4 games, it's been apparent that Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker have passed CJ. And in the next 2-3 years, it's probably the case that some players like Ja Morant, Trae Young, Malcolm Brogdon, Jalen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Fred Van Vleet, Brandon Ingram, Kelly Oubre, Pascal Siakam (already passed), Jayson Tatum, Jaren Jackson, Domantas Sabonis, and Bam Adebayo will pass CJ, if they haven't already. Sure, some aging stars will fade but there are a lot of good young players lined up, and the more of those that pass CJ, the worse his contract is

finally, it's not all just on CJ. It's on the pairing of Dame & CJ as well. Their synergy is mostly just 'my-turn-your-turn-my-turn-again'. They are simply too redundant in size, style, tendencies, bad habits, and weak defense.

We all know the advanced stats look at CJ poorly. This isn't anything new. The lack of synergy is my only concern and has always been. But we aren't replacing him with a player of his caliber if he were to leave in FA.

 

[wizenheimer]

We all know the advanced stats look at CJ poorly. This isn't anything new. The lack of synergy is my only concern and has always been. But we aren't replacing him with a player of his caliber if he were to leave in FA.

probably not, but it's not a case of just letting him walk. He could be traded, and trading him with that extension is going to be a lot harder than without it

 

[illmatic99]

trading him with that extension is going to be a lot harder than without it

Disagree. Players on the last year of their contracts have very little value for that very fear that they would walk. For a player in his prime without a sign of declining anytime over the tenure of his new deal, i think this extension makes him easier to trade.

 

[tester551]

Disagree. Players on the last year of their contracts have very little value for that very fear that they would walk. For a player in his prime without a sign of declining anytime over the tenure of his new deal, i think this extension makes him easier to trade.

But CJ was NOT on the last year of his contract. He was still under contract for the '20-'21 season.