Hoopsworld on Andre Miller to Portland

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One possible destination for the best pump fake in basketball could be Portland. As a matter of fact, those two fit about as nicely Quincy Jones tutoring an artistic prodigy. The Trailblazers only flaw right now is their point guard, and they were the youngest team in this years post-season. They really could have used a calming floor general that knows when to defer, when to hold up, when to run, and when to briefly take over. Miller sets the tempo like a metronome. He did it in Philadelphia and he’d do it in Portland.

In the past nine seasons, you won’t find a more complete point guard who never really played for a contender. Throughout his career Miller has been remarkably consistent, coming into the league as a 23-year-old man, he’s never laced them up for less than 80 games in each season. If Miller doesn’t end up in Portland, nearly half the teams in the league looking to get to the next level should think about inking Andre Miller. For the short term, they won’t be sorry.

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2...ller-be-wearing-a-blazers-jersey-next-season/
 
There is a difference between being a good 3-point shooting team, and being dependent on the 3 point shot.

Hollinger's 3rd point trumps the other 2 - can the team win when the trey isn't falling? For the Magic, the answer seems to be "yes". That doesn't make it a universal truth.
 
oldmangrouch said:
There is a difference between being a good 3-point shooting team, and being dependent on the 3 point shot.

Hollinger's 3rd point trumps the other 2 - can the team win when the trey isn't falling? For the Magic, the answer seems to be "yes". That doesn't make it a universal truth.
Click to expand...

I don't think point 3 trumps the other two. I think Hollinger's main argument is that a three-pointer-heavy offense is actually a pretty efficient form of offense, in contradiction to the idea that it's gimmicky and unreliable. He points out that most of the best teams recently have shot a high number of three-pointers.

You obviously have to do other things well, no team wins a championship just by doing one thing well. Orlando had the best defense this season, so it's possible for them to win games even when they're not shooting well. But that goes for any style of offense...if you play great defense, you can win even if you're not scoring well out of the post or your mid-range shots aren't falling.

Portland rebounds extremely well and has a very efficient, three-point-heavy offense. I think the take-away from what Hollinger wrote is that Portland's heavy use of the three-pointer isn't really a concern. In my opinion, Portland's main problem is consistent defense. Their offense is perfectly good and championship-caliber, as is their rebounding. Their defense isn't. That's what has to change, not how they play offense.
 
Minstrel said:
I don't think point 3 trumps the other two. I think Hollinger's main argument is that a three-pointer-heavy offense is actually a pretty efficient form of offense, in contradiction to the idea that it's gimmicky and unreliable. He points out that most of the best teams recently have shot a high number of three-pointers.

You obviously have to do other things well, no team wins a championship just by doing one thing well. Orlando had the best defense this season, so it's possible for them to win games even when they're not shooting well. But that goes for any style of offense...if you play great defense, you can win even if you're not scoring well out of the post or your mid-range shots aren't falling.

Portland rebounds extremely well and has a very efficient, three-point-heavy offense. I think the take-away from what Hollinger wrote is that Portland's heavy use of the three-pointer isn't really a concern. In my opinion, Portland's main problem is consistent defense. Their offense is perfectly good and championship-caliber, as is their rebounding. Their defense isn't. That's what has to change, not how they play offense.
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I agree with your point about the defense needing to improve. OTOH, I think Houston did a pretty good job of disproving that we have a "championship-caliber" offense. Roy and LMA spent way too much time being forced to play 2-on-5. It was predictable that we would have trouble with low-post scoring against the Rockets, but they also snuffed out our 3-point specialists (Blake, Rudy, Outlaw) with disdainful ease.
 
Could it be that the statistics are coincidental rather causal? It may be that the teams that were successful not only took a large percentage of 3 point shots but also took more free throws then their opponents. I will have to check on this, but my feeling is that the team that goes to the line more wins a huge amount of the time.

This would mean that although 3 point shots won't cause you to fail, the real way to win is to attack the rim and create fouls. Which is the conventional wisdom.
 
Teams that take a lot of 3s and do it rather successfully require the other team to guard the perimeter and open the driving lanes to attack the rim. The two are not mutually exclusive...
 
oldmangrouch said:
I agree with your point about the defense needing to improve. OTOH, I think Houston did a pretty good job of disproving that we have a "championship-caliber" offense.
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I don't think that's true. Portland struggled a bit, but they were up against a tough defensive team. Outside of game 1, when they basically lost their poise, I'd say that they were extremely competitive with Houston. Had they played better defense, they could certainly have won that series. A "championship-caliber offense" doesn't mean they'll score 100 against anyone. It means that it's sufficient for Portland to beat any team. Of course, any offense will be insufficient if the defense is poor. I think Portland's offense is sufficient against any team in the league, but their defense isn't.
 
Minstrel said:
I don't think that's true. Portland struggled a bit, but they were up against a tough defensive team. Outside of game 1, when they basically lost their poise, I'd say that they were extremely competitive with Houston. Had they played better defense, they could certainly have won that series. A "championship-caliber offense" doesn't mean they'll score 100 against anyone. It means that it's sufficient for Portland to beat any team. Of course, any offense will be insufficient if the defense is poor. I think Portland's offense is sufficient against any team in the league, but their defense isn't.
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If anything, Houston is a prime example of what you say as well. Look at them. They do struggle some offensivly. But the facts are they are in every game because their defense is so good. It doesn't matter who they play, they are in the game because their defense gives them a chance. You look at teams that are superior offensivly, and often they are out of games because they can't stop the other team from scoring, and they often run up tempo offenses which are not comfortable in the half court. That usually doesn't work too well when it is the last 5 minutes of a playoff game, the game is getting stopped every so many seconds, teams are using every time out, teams are intentionally fouling to stop layups, and you need a shot from the half court offense in order to stay in the game. You are right on the money. The problem is we couldn't get stops consistently. They could.
 
Does Andre have any interest in us, does KP target him? I sure hope so..this seems like an obvious fit. Then S&T for Hedo and we are set.
 
MAS RipCity said:
Does Andre have any interest in us, does KP target him? I sure hope so..this seems like an obvious fit. Then S&T for Hedo and we are set.
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Not sure if he has any interest in us, but according to Antonio Harvey on the MSP this morning, Miller has a grandmother that lives around this area, so he does have a connection to Portland. I'm not sure how accurate this info is, though.
 
Darkwebs said:
Not sure if he has any interest in us, but according to Antonio Harvey on the MSP this morning, Miller has a grandmother that lives around this area, so he does have a connection to Portland. I'm not sure how accurate this info is, though.
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Yeah I heard that snippet too ... it really perked my ears up.
 
Andre Miller= 6.5 apg, 2.4 tpg
Blake= 5.0 apg, 1.5 tpg, shoots three better
 
KingSpeed said:
Andre Miller= 6.5 apg, 2.4 tpg
Blake= 5.0 apg, 1.5 tpg, shoots three better
Click to expand...

Andre Miller: PER = 18.7, FTA/G = 5.0, AST% = 30.2, TRB/G = 4.5, WS = 8.6
Steve Blake: PER = 14.5, FTA/G = 1.1, AST% = 25.1, TRB/G = 2.5, WS = 5.5

Yes, Blake shoots the 3 better, but Miller penetrates MUCH better and gets to the FT line almost 5x as much as Blake. Miller's ability to penetrate creates opportunities for himself and his teammates.

The more I think about Miller, the more I think he'd be a great fit in Portland. He played very well in Philly paired with Andre Iguodala - who is is a sort of Brandon Roy lite. Like Portland with Roy, the 76ers run a lot of their offense through Iguodala (5.3 APG vs. 5.1 APG for Roy). Yet, Miller still managed to average 16.3 PPG and 6.5 APG (compared to 11.0 PPG and 5.0 APG for Bake).

I also think Miller's style of play makes him a better mentor for Jerryd Bayless. Miller and Bayless are both guys who can penetrate and draw fouls. Miller is also very good at penetrating, reading the defense and finding his open teammate - something Bayless needs to improve. Blake is more of a stand around on the perimeter and knock down the open 3 kind of guy. He does that well, but I don't see Bayless being effective in that type of role.

Blake is also younger, but Miller has been insanely healthy and injury free (he's averaged 81.5 Games per year over his 10-year NBA career). He obviously keeps himself in top condition. So, I can easily see him remaining productive for another 2 - 3 years. If the Blazers could get Miller AND pick-up Blake's option, it would allow Bayless to gradually transition from 3rd string PG to back-up to starter over a 3 - 4 year period.

2009-10: Miller/Blake/Bayless
2010-11: Miller/Bayless
2011-12: Bayless/Miller

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Andre Miller: PER = 18.7, FTA/G = 5.0, AST% = 30.2, TRB/G = 4.5, WS = 8.6
Steve Blake: PER = 14.5, FTA/G = 1.1, AST% = 25.1, TRB/G = 2.5, WS = 5.5

Yes, Blake shoots the 3 better, but Miller penetrates MUCH better and gets to the FT line almost 5x as much as Blake. Miller's ability to penetrate creates opportunities for himself and his teammates.

The more I think about Miller, the more I think he'd be a great fit in Portland. He played very well in Philly paired with Andre Iguodala - who is is a sort of Brandon Roy lite. Like Portland with Roy, the 76ers run a lot of their offense through Iguodala (5.3 APG vs. 5.1 APG for Roy). Yet, Miller still managed to average 16.3 PPG and 6.5 APG (compared to 11.0 PPG and 5.0 APG for Bake).

I also think Miller's style of play makes him a better mentor for Jerryd Bayless. Miller and Bayless are both guys who can penetrate and draw fouls. Miller is also very good at penetrating, reading the defense and finding his open teammate - something Bayless needs to improve. Blake is more of a stand around on the perimeter and knock down the open 3 kind of guy. He does that well, but I don't see Bayless being effective in that type of role.

Blake is also younger, but Miller has been insanely healthy and injury free (he's averaged 81.5 Games per year over his 10-year NBA career). He obviously keeps himself in top condition. So, I can easily see him remaining productive for another 2 - 3 years. If the Blazers could get Miller AND pick-up Blake's option, it would allow Bayless to gradually transition from 3rd string PG to back-up to starter over a 3 - 4 year period.

2009-10: Miller/Blake/Bayless
2010-11: Miller/Bayless
2011-12: Bayless/Miller

BNM
Click to expand...

^^^ This.
 
I'm not really sure why Kingspeed is using those statistics because I'd rather have 1.5 more assists and only .9 more turnovers. Especially when you consider Andre's ability to penetrate and post up in addition to his defense.
 
The Sebastian Express said:
I'm not really sure why Kingspeed is using those statistics because I'd rather have 1.5 more assists and only .9 more turnovers. Especially when you consider Andre's ability to penetrate and post up in addition to his defense.
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And his significantly better defense, which is not encapsulated by stats like steals.
 
KingSpeed said:
Andre Miller= 6.5 apg, 2.4 tpg
Blake= 5.0 apg, 1.5 tpg, shoots three better
Click to expand...

Point guards who take 88% of their shots on jumpers shouldn't turn the ball over -- it's hard to turn the ball over if you aren't penetrating. A/TO ratio is a useful stat when talking about guys who are handling the ball in a lot of traffic, but in Steve's case I think it speaks more to his low risk, low reward style of shot creation. I'll take the guy with a draw-foul-rate similar to Brandon's, a FG% similar to Brandon's and the ability to create offense for himself and others off the bounce over a spot up shooting "point guard" every day of the week.
 
A more interesting thing to note - which adjusts for pace/minutes and the like is to look at assist%, usage% and tov%

Blake: 25.1%, 16.9%, 13.6%
Miller: 30.2%, 21.8%, 14%

What we see is that Miller protects the ball just as much as Blake does - he is used more and creates more - but Iggy does not handle or initiate the offense as much as Roy.

Honestly - if the offense improves with Miller - it is because Roy will be fresher and will not need to create as much and the bigs do well in the post - but I would not be surprised if the offense is not any better - we had a historic level offense - efficiency wise, this year. The defense is where we will see an improvement from Miller over Blake. Blake's offensive rating is a little higher than Miller's - 118 vs 115 points per 100 possessions...

I have ot tell you that I would not mind Miller if we knew what we get from JB or if he or Blake were also around to play backup - but I am not sold on his advantage on the offensive end of the court.
 
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