How do we win game 2?

[maxiep]

Something tells me Game 2 is going to remind me of the WWE, not a straight-up sporting contest.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Exactly

They can play Beverley hurt all they want. Lillard will just continue to abuse him and that knee.

Dame will jab step and jook left so much Bev's right knee might actually explode.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I'd also like to see more penetration and driving to the basket/sideline by Mo Williams to help disrupt the Houston defense. He needs a better second game, and I'm looking for him to do so.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Handily.

 

[illmatic99]

Dwight apparently said he's gonna guard LA a lot in game 2.

GO SMALL! Bring this fool out and get Dame to drive every play!

 

[Eastoff]

Dwight apparently said he's gonna guard LA a lot in game 2.

GO SMALL! Bring this fool out and get Dame to drive every play!

Hell yes! dame did so well without a true center in the middle!!!

 

[Draco]

It screams of Brandon Roy game 4 in the playoffs. He's going to wreck his knees.

It actually reminds me of Brandon Roy in the Phoenix series, playing when less than 100% weeks after an injury. It could damage him for years, and he doesn't have a guaranteed $80 million contract as Roy did. He'll be less effective this series, just as Roy couldn't do crap against Phoenix and was never the same player. People forget outside of the one magical game, and that game was special, but outside of that Roy was terrible in the Dallas playoff series.

Hopefully for Beverly he doesn't damage his knee long term from these playoffs. Roy was on his 5th surgery so Beverly doesn't have that troublesome history but I don't wish knee injuries on anyone no matter what kind of a dork they are on the court.

 

[Draco]

Dwight apparently said he's gonna guard LA a lot in game 2.

GO SMALL! Bring this fool out and get Dame to drive every play!

Going big gives us a huge advantage on the offensive glass with Lopez against Terrance Jones or Parsons.

I don't like going small too much because then Aldridge has to guard Dwight on defense, we don't want him doing that the whole game. Its fine to experiment with if LaMarcus has extra fouls in the second half. Aldridge defends Dwight as well as anyone on our team one-on-one. But we don't want him picking up any of those fouls in the first half.

 

[PDXFonz]

It screams of Brandon Roy game 4 in the playoffs. He's going to wreck his knees.

The big difference is thst broy was classy while bev is just a dirty scrub. I don't feel bad for him, I consider it karma.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Houston's biggest problem is their best offensive player is absolutely horrible on defense. He has to guard someone - and whoever that is, will wear him out and if you take away a shooter's legs, you take away his shot. Last night, Wesley wore him out by constantly posting him up. As a result, after halftime Harden shot 3/16 from the field and 0/5 from 3-point range.

I fully expect McHale to put Harden on the less aggressive Batum - which could work in the Blazers favor. Remember, Nic led the entire NBA in miles traveled during the regular season. If McHale tries to hide Harden's awful defense by putting him in Nic we need Nic to run him into the ground. Nic should be running off screens all night. If Harden doesn't fight through the screens (yeah, right), Nic needs knock down the open jumpers - he'll have plenty of opportunites. Nic also needs to constantly look to cut down the lane. Harden is lazy on defense, turns his head and loses his man. When he does, Nic needs to cut to the basket and make him pay. Again the method is different (constant motion vs. post up), but the goal is the same, tire out Harden so he has less energy on offense and no lift on his jumper.

For all the talk about what a great defender Beverley is, he's really not all that good. Look at his advanced stats at 82games.com:

Production:
Own = 13.3
Opp = 15.7
Net = -2.4

He's the only Rocket starter with a negative Net Production. He's the lowest scoring (10.2 ppg) PG on any team that made the playoffs in the Western Conference, and also dead last, by a large margin in assists (2.7 apg). He's a pest with a reputation, and nothing more. And last night, Lillard held him below his averages (9 points/2 assists). Assuming Beverley even plays, we need to continue to exploit this match-up. He's as pathetic on offense as Jeremy Lin is on defense.

Dwight on LaMarcus will also have added advantages. Of course, LaMarcus won't go for 46/18 with Dwight on him, but it will also get Dwight into foul trouble and also pull him out of the paint - where he is most effective. That leaves them with no rim protector down low. Lillard showed last night he can blow by Beverley, and I'm pretty sure I could beat James Harden off the dribble. So, drawing Howard out of the paint will let our guards attack the rim all night long.

I think McHale will make the obvious adjustments, but I don't think they will be effective. Anything he takes way, will create other advantages for the Blazers. And, unlike Nate McMillan before him, I am confident Terry Stotts will spot those advantages and know exactly how to exploit them.

BNM

 

[tester551]

Dwight apparently said he's gonna guard LA a lot in game 2.

GO SMALL! Bring this fool out and get Dame to drive every play!

Pull LMA out to the angle area & run a Batum/Lopez pick & roll on the opposite side.... Especially if Harden is trying to guard Batum.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Pull LMA out to the angle area & run a Batum/Lopez pick & roll on the opposite side.

That Batman & Robin pick and roll is so sweet. Imagine how much sweeter it would be with Terrence Jones trying to guard Lopez.

Of course, that may force Houston to play Asik and Dwight together more. The whole twin towers thing sounds good on paper, but they don't really seem to coexist well together. Asik really had a down season, and last night he had 5 fouls and 2 turnovers in just 12 minutes.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The question I have is how will LMA adapt to Jone's defense after his team mates teach him the "Harden-Flop".

 

[H.C.]

The question I have is how will LMA adapt to Jone's defense after his team mates teach him the "Harden-Flop".

People used to flop all the time on Aldridge. Aldridge has got better and using his rear and not his shoulders to back people in. So I doubt flopping is jones' go to move.
Don't see Huston doubling him either.

What we should do as an adjustment is throw "Nards the Enforcer" out there just to knock lin/bev around. Maybe pick up a Flagrant 2.

 

[crandc]

If the Blazers had a chip on their shoulder in game 1, the Rockets will have a frigging boulder in game 2, pretending the win was "stolen" from them. They will flop and draw phatom fouls all over the place. Blazers have to keep their composure and not be pulled out of their game plan. Don't be overconfident, it won't be a cakewalk.

Then just win.

 

[blue9]

They better play really clean defense for the 1st quarter - no reaching, arms straight up. Don't give the refs any opportunity to call BS fouls early in the game. If HOU scores, so be it. Let them be "hot" early, stay out of foul trouble, then clamp down in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, on offense run Harden ragged at attack the paint with LMA pulling Howard away from the hoop.

 

[mook]

Portland is 7th in the league in not committing fouls per game. When you factor in that we have the 5th highest pace (lots of possessions = more opportunities to foul), we're probably the league leaders in not fouling (at least among good teams).

It makes it much harder to draw fouls on flops. In this regard, Portland is a pretty tough matchup for Houston. That final possession where Harden is stuck with the ball, desperately casting around for somebody to flop into, is emblematic of this dynamic.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Go ahead and call me crazy, but I think we win game 2 going away.

It's going to rain 3s in Houston.

 

[blue9]

Go ahead and call me crazy, but I think we win game 2 going away.

It's going to rain 3s in Houston.

Crazy...like a fox!

 

[Eastoff]

I think McHale will make the obvious adjustments, but I don't think they will be effective. Anything he takes way, will create other advantages for the Blazers. And, unlike Nate McMillan before him, I am confident Terry Stotts will spot those advantages and know exactly how to exploit them.

I hope the McNugget brothers are both so simple.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I expect Harden to put up 40 and Howard with a 30/20 for Game Two. However, if we can limit Parsons, then we may have a chance.

40 points on 5 shots.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Portland is 7th in the league in not committing fouls per game. When you factor in that we have the 5th highest pace (lots of possessions = more opportunities to foul), we're probably the league leaders in not fouling (at least among good teams).

It makes it much harder to draw fouls on flops. In this regard, Portland is a pretty tough matchup for Houston. That final possession where Harden is stuck with the ball, desperately casting around for somebody to flop into, is emblematic of this dynamic.

Houston's Opponent FT Rate (.193) is almost identical to Portland's (.194). But, Houston, leads the league in Own FT Rate (.386, or exactly TWICE their opponent's rate). So, two things:

1. Houston's fans expect to shoot twice as many FT's as their opponent (in general)
2. Houston uses "shooting more FT's than your opponent" (i.e., flopping) as a major offensive pillar

So, if the refs even call the game even, that's putting Houston at a disadvantage. Expect Houston to shoot a FUCKTON of free throws the rest of the series.

 

[maxiep]

40 points on 5 shots.

Pretty much. I think there will be a red carpet for him to the FT line.

 

[mook]

Houston's Opponent FT Rate (.193) is almost identical to Portland's (.194). But, Houston, leads the league in Own FT Rate (.386, or exactly TWICE their opponent's rate). So, two things:

1. Houston's fans expect to shoot twice as many FT's as their opponent (in general)
2. Houston uses "shooting more FT's than your opponent" (i.e., flopping) as a major offensive pillar

So, if the refs even call the game even, that's putting Houston at a disadvantage. Expect Houston to shoot a FUCKTON of free throws the rest of the series.

Good point. Although it's something of an irresistible force/immovable object thing. They shoot a ridiculous number of free throws. We commit very few fouls. It's not a certainty at all that the axiom for the Rockets is always true and the one for the Blazers disappears at the first good shake.

I do think the NBA is corrupt, and that certain teams get superstar treatment. What I'm not so sure of, at this point, is that the Rockets benefit more from this fact than we do.

Why the NBA would favor the Rockets:
The Chinese fanbase that still lingers post-Yao
Houston is a big market

Why the NBA might favor the Blazers:
The NBA and addidas have already invested heavily in Lillard's stardom. Lillard seems to be filling some of the holes Derrick Rose left.
Lillard and LMA are as vanilla good-guy type characters as you get. Howard and Harden are whiners, and they forced their way out of other franchises.
Lillard and LMA are fresh faces to sell with interesting stories.

You add it up and I don't really see much reason for the NBA to want to fix this series either way. Lillard's style of play is just more exciting than Harden's. LMA's style is boring, but also frankly more likable, or at least sympathetic, than Howard.

I don't think it's a give at all that the Rockets get drastically more FTA's from here on out. Of all the first round series, this seems like one that ought to get called reasonably fairly.

 

[blue9]

The NBA and addidas have already invested heavily in Lillard's stardom. Lillard seems to be filling some of the holes Derrick Rose left.
Lillard and LMA are as vanilla good-guy type characters as you get. Howard and Harden are whiners, and they forced their way out of other franchises.

I agree that this is a very good reason for the NBA to want POR to come out on top of HOU. It comes down to "story" vs "market size". What's more important to the NBA? Hopefully the story!
Nobody in any other city will be upset if Harden or Howard are ousted from the Playoffs - everybody hates whiny floppers.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Good point. Although it's something of an irresistible force/immovable object thing. They shoot a ridiculous number of free throws. We commit very few fouls. It's not a certainty at all that the axiom for the Rockets is always true and the one for the Blazers disappears at the first good shake.

I do think the NBA is corrupt, and that certain teams get superstar treatment. What I'm not so sure of, at this point, is that the Rockets benefit more from this fact than we do.

Why the NBA would favor the Rockets:
The Chinese fanbase that still lingers post-Yao
Houston is a big market

Why the NBA might favor the Blazers:
The NBA and addidas have already invested heavily in Lillard's stardom. Lillard seems to be filling some of the holes Derrick Rose left.
Lillard and LMA are as vanilla good-guy type characters as you get. Howard and Harden are whiners, and they forced their way out of other franchises.
Lillard and LMA are fresh faces to sell with interesting stories.

You add it up and I don't really see much reason for the NBA to want to fix this series either way. Lillard's style of play is just more exciting than Harden's. LMA's style is boring, but also frankly more likable, or at least sympathetic, than Howard.

I don't think it's a give at all that the Rockets get drastically more FTA's from here on out. Of all the first round series, this seems like one that ought to get called reasonably fairly.

Also it should be noted that if the Rockets win, they're in another all-Texas series in round two. Portland provides a more expanded regional appeal.

Come on Silver--see the benefit to allowing the game to be called fairly!!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Pretty much. I think there will be a red carpet for him to the FT line.

I hope Stotts uses the bench accordingly, all the way from Mo and Barton to Watson and CJ if possible. Let no blazer guard pick up more than 3 fouls as a fuck you to the refs.

 

[Mediocre Man]

As a former gambler, and utilizing the knowledge I have gained over time, here is a theory. Whatever happened the game before in a series, reverse it. So for example....whatever the Rockets were favored in game one is what they will win by...plus what they are favored tonight. If they were are favored by 5 tonight and 5 in game one, they will win by 12 tonight....follow?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I follow. Sounds about right. We can only hope we get incredibly hot from three.

 

[Blazinaway]

As a former gambler, and utilizing the knowledge I have gained over time, here is a theory. Whatever happened the game before in a series, reverse it. So for example....whatever the Rockets were favored in game one is what they will win by...plus what they are favored tonight. If they were are favored by 5 tonight and 5 in game one, they will win by 12 tonight....follow?

Hi MM, haven't seen you posting much, hope you are well. Did you enjoy game 1?