Science How many minutes will Hansen get in his rookie season?

[Wizard Mentor]

Hansen minutes?

DC: 60 games, 28 mpg => 1680 minutes
RW3: 50 games (I'm being generous), 28 mpg => 1400 minutes
Total center minutes: 82 games, 48 mpg => 3936 minutes available

Total non-DC, non-RW center minutes available: 3936 - 1400 - 1680 = 856.

Hansen gets 856/82 = 10.4 bonafide, game on the line, mpg.

Assumptions:

• Hansen gets all C minutes not taken by RW and DC. (H likely to get LESS minutes due to this)
• RW can actually play 50 games. (H likely to get MORE minutes due to this)
• Hansen gets zero "mop up" minutes. (H likely to get MORE minutes due to this)

Notes:

• RW is unlikely play in back 2 backs.
• For reference, 2nd round pick Jabari Walker got 12.5 mpg his rookie year. If 10 of those were mop-up minutes, then H could conceivably play up to 20 mpg. However, the current Blazers are better than JW's rookie team. Taking that into account, it is still very possible that H plays....

15 minutes/game

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Looks like Rob Will won't be there to start the season. So, DC 30, H 18 is my early guess. DC has indeed slimmed down.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Looks like Rob Will won't be there to start the season. So, DC 30, H 18 is my early guess. DC has indeed slimmed down.

Hard to know for sure, but the way I interpreted what Joe said was that Rob has not been cleared for contact yet, but would be real soon. I think they are just being cautious. He could be ready for the start of the season.

But to your point, I can't see him playing every game. Besides Yang getting those minutes, I would expect some small ball at times with Jrue, Shae, Tou, Deni, and Grant all playing together. As long as they can rebound. But it's not like Yang is a good rebounder either...... not yet.

 

[kjironman1]

1000 his rookie year is what I consider the least he should get. Less than that he needs to play G league and get playing time.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

There, I think I've covered all possibilities.

 

[THE HCP]

Hansen minutes?

DC: 60 games, 28 mpg => 1680 minutes
RW3: 50 games (I'm being generous), 28 mpg => 1400 minutes
Total center minutes: 82 games, 48 mpg => 3936 minutes available

Total non-DC, non-RW center minutes available: 3936 - 1400 - 1680 = 856.

Hansen gets 856/82 = 10.4 bonafide, game on the line, mpg.

Assumptions:

• Hansen gets all C minutes not taken by RW and DC. (H likely to get LESS minutes due to this)
• RW can actually play 50 games. (H likely to get MORE minutes due to this)
• Hansen gets zero "mop up" minutes. (H likely to get MORE minutes due to this)

Notes:

• RW is unlikely play in back 2 backs.
• For reference, 2nd round pick Jabari Walker got 12.5 mpg his rookie year. If 10 of those were mop-up minutes, then H could conceivably play up to 20 mpg. However, the current Blazers are better than JW's rookie team. Taking that into account, it is still very possible that H plays....

15 minutes/game

Does it matter what kind of minutes they are? Either EARNED or simply because of injuries, NEEDED?

 

[Cugel]

Too early to say. Could be 0 or 15.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Initially plays as a backup about 15mpg.

Around Christmas switches to even center split at 24 mpg.

Starts full time around all-star break

Leads the Blazers in minutes during March

Plays over 40mpg ever game in April

Starts in the playoffs but we only make the conference finals his rookie year. I try to be realistic with my projections.

 

[BassPlaya]

There, I think I've covered all possibilities.

Did you stay at the Double Tree last night?

 

[PDXFonz]

Very interesting storyline. Talks and statistics of the Chinese viewership market spiking because of him, new ownership and the possible financial implications. He’ll have a chance… One has to be honest and say that the hype is pretty high. Only he can say if he lives up to it. Really it’s anybodies guess how it unfolds. You can expect him to have to earn his minutes; however I think a fairly even split between him and Clingan is a fair guess. So I’d say that I think he will play 18+ minutes per game.

Best case scenario is he proves that the hype is real and he finds himself getting 25 minutes avg this season. That market is here to watch Blazer games, not Remix games. So as long as he’s not showing that he’s a liability, I think he should easily be good for 15 minutes a game this season, which I would expect to fluctuate on a game by game basis. The minutes consistency is going to depend on what he can do in those games where he gets majority minutes.

I’m personally seeing the potential and wanting the hype to explode, but I’m also preparing for him to have a mediocre rookie season. It’s definitely going to be fun, and I’m sure there will be some great highlights. Imagine what it means for our future if he has a ROY season.

 

[Domihatin]

Hansen doesn't deserve to be playing G-League minutes, that's for sure. The man is already a pro. It's obvious watching him play. He has the footwork and agility and smarts to adjust defensively to the NBA. If you LISTEN to the other players and coaching staff, he's improved vastly since Summer League and that means he's going to be even more jaw-droppingly good out there. He dominated the court and headlines in SL. If he can do that with lower tier players against lower tier players, just imagine when you surround him with the upper tier players. He's going to shine like the Sun! DC, look out! He's also got more stamina by far than DC.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

Hansen doesn't deserve to be playing G-League minutes, that's for sure. The man is already a pro. It's obvious watching him play. He has the footwork and agility and smarts to adjust defensively to the NBA. If you LISTEN to the other players and coaching staff, he's improved vastly since Summer League and that means he's going to be even more jaw-droppingly good out there. He dominated the court and headlines in SL. If he can do that with lower tier players against lower tier players, just imagine when you surround him with the upper tier players. He's going to shine like the Sun! DC, look out! He's also got more stamina by far than DC.

I mean… by that same measure, he’s going to be going up against upper tier players instead of summer leaguers, too.

 

[Domihatin]

I mean… by that same measure, he’s going to be going up against upper tier players instead of summer leaguers, too.

True, I'm not saying he's not going to have challenges, but I still think what he's shown in his whole career thus far and his recent showings and apparently from the talk through his time on the team this summer in practices and workouts and then now in training camp, I think we are going to see something truly special on the court. Imagine Jockitch, but taller, faster, possibly even higher IQ? He lacks the experience of Jockitch, but I think has more offensive abilities I think it's going to be a spectacle. Jockitch, is autocorrect disaster, but I like it. I'm sure players get it frequently.

 

[Pinwheel1]

.

If you LISTEN to the other players and coaching staff, he's improved vastly since Summer League and that means he's going to be even more jaw-droppingly good out there. He dominated the court and headlines in SL. If he can do that with lower tier players against lower tier players, just imagine when you surround him with the upper tier players. He's going to shine like the Sun! DC, look out! He's also got more stamina by far than DC.

I could be wrong, but for the most part, when they rave about him, they always include the word "offensively."
Defense and rebounding will need to improve before his minutes get close to 20. Unless, of course, there are injuries.

I expect him to start out getting around 10-12 minutes per game.

 

[wizenheimer]

wait a minute...this is a 'science' thread?

 

[HailBlazers]

wait a minute...this is a 'science' thread?

Your favorite type...no?

 

[julius]

I just hope he doesn't start off getting minutes where he's just out there and doing nothing.

I hope he's so good that he makes an instant positive impression.

 

[BassPlaya]

I wonder if....

this board will argue over the correctness of his playing minutes this season....
this board will argue over the effectiveness of his playing ability this season....
this board will argue over the validity of his high draft selection this season....
this board will argue over the lineups he is asked to play with this season....

 

[Pinwheel1]

I just hope he doesn't start off getting minutes where he's just out there and doing nothing.

I hope he's so good that he makes an instant positive impression.

He is probably going to rack up some turnovers and fouls at first. Partly because he will need to get used to NBA players in a real game setting, and partly because the refs will pick on him like they do with most rookies. Limiting the fouls and turnovers is what I want to see. This is going to be a steep learning curve.

He is going to get crucified by some fans at first. But let's face it, fans can be idiots, so that is inevitable. So I doubt there will be an instant positive impression at first, but I hope he will at least learn and get better without hurting the team while doing so. I hope that Williams is healthy enough so they can ease Hansen into the rotation slowly. I don't want to see him get embarrassed early on and ruin his confidence.

 

[riverman]

A lot of this will depend upon whether Rob can play back to back games this season. I could see games where we use both guys behind DC and if healthy....Rob is going to play more.I think as a rookie Hansen will play 12 -18 minutes a game unless Rob is out.

 

[BassPlaya]

I can't wait to see how he adjusts to the tighter windows he has to pass through. I have no doubt he will narrow his focus and accomplish this.

His passing is something else.

 

[HailBlazers]

A lot of this will depend upon whether Rob can play back to back games this season. I could see games where we use both guys behind DC and if healthy....Rob is going to play more.I think as a rookie Hansen will play 12 -18 minutes a game unless Rob is out.

I'm sure Rob can....until he can't. That being said he shouldn't play back to back games.

 

[kjironman1]

True, I'm not saying he's not going to have challenges, but I still think what he's shown in his whole career thus far and his recent showings and apparently from the talk through his time on the team this summer in practices and workouts and then now in training camp, I think we are going to see something truly special on the court. Imagine Jockitch, but taller, faster, possibly even higher IQ? He lacks the experience of Jockitch, but I think has more offensive abilities I think it's going to be a spectacle. Jockitch, is autocorrect disaster, but I like it. I'm sure players get it frequently.

Dude? He's going to get smoked out there. At least this year for sure. He will be playing G league at some point is my guess. He's nowhere near fast enough yet. I did say yet.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I wonder if....

this board will argue over the correctness of his playing minutes this season....
this board will argue over the effectiveness of his playing ability this season....
this board will argue over the validity of his high draft selection this season....
this board will argue over the lineups he is asked to play with this season....

Sure. It would be boring if we agreed about everything.

 

[BassPlaya]

Sure. It would be boring if we agreed about everything.

Of course. I guess I find differences of opinion expressed to be quite different from the need to argue over said differences.

In all....my comment was probably a poorly revealed pile of low hanging fruit.

After all....I am here...am I not?

 

[wizenheimer]

After all....I am here...am I not?

is this a trick question?

 

[julius]

He is probably going to rack up some turnovers and fouls at first. Partly because he will need to get used to NBA players in a real game setting, and partly because the refs will pick on him like they do with most rookies. Limiting the fouls and turnovers is what I want to see. This is going to be a steep learning curve.

He is going to get crucified by some fans at first. But let's face it, fans can be idiots, so that is inevitable. So I doubt there will be an instant positive impression at first, but I hope he will at least learn and get better without hurting the team while doing so. I hope that Williams is healthy enough so they can ease Hansen into the rotation slowly. I don't want to see him get embarrassed early on and ruin his confidence.

Very true. I just meant (and I know you didn't really contend my comment) that I hope we see things instead of just see him.

Passes, defense, looking like he knows what he's doing. Kinda like how DC almost instantly looked like you could trust him on the court.