Forum Game How much longer do you think Olshey deserves?

[OneLifeToLive]

Not me. After Nolan Smith & trading Miller away - no way would I want him back.

He at least proved that he could structure, broker and close a deal. He was able to sell it off. This General Manager really struggles.

If I'm going to replace him. I'm looking to upgrade. Chad isn't an upgrade, so it wouldn't be that direction.

 

[Cippy91]

His trade for Nurkic was the best in the NBA last year. And Nurkic is better than Milsap or Butler or even Paul George actually. And he's younger than all three.

Uhhhh hold up. Not better than Paul George. Chill. That trade was straight up luck on Neil's end. Nobody knew nurk would perform the way he did with minutes. We had ideas but it just worked out luckily. I don't give Neil much credit for that aside from getting another first rounder with him

 

[SIeepwalker]

You top that off with the lack of creativity he has shown in the last five years when it comes to the draft.

If getting drafting Dame, CJ and finding players like Crabbe or Barton in the 2nd round is lacking creativity, Then I'm all for not being creative

Id be willing to bring Chad Buchanan back. He atleast was able to broker a deal that netted the #6, Okur and Shawne Williams for Gerald Wallace. We all know what #6 brought.

We all know who made that pick

 

[42N8Bounce]

I'm not ready to panic just yet.

Here's a look at the average PERs for Starters (and Bench) from the end of last year (2017):
GSW 20.4 (bench=11.5)
LAC 19.1 (13.0)
CLE 18.9 (11.6)
UTH 18.6 (10.7)
TOR 18.5 (13.4)
WAS 17.9 (10.5)
SAS 17.9 (14.9)
POR 17.8 (11.5)
BOS 17.7 (12.1)
MIN 17.6 (10.2)
HOU 17.5 (16.1)
CHI 17.4 (13.6)
NOH 17.2 (13.0)
IND 16.5 (13.4)
DEN 16.5 (15.7)
ORL 16.4 (10.8)
CHA 16.4 (13.9)
NYK 15.9 (16.2)
MIL 15.9 (13.5)
PHO 15.9 (12.2)
ATL 15.6 (11.7)
MEM 15.6 (12.4)
DET 15.6 (12.3)
OKC 15.4 (12.5)
DAL 15.1 (13.3)
MIA 14.9 (11.4)
BRK 14.0 (11.4)
LAL 13.6 (11.9)
PHI 13.2 (11.8)
SAC 13.1 (14.5)

Portland had the 8th best group of starters according to PER (yes, not the perfect measurement, but good.). Lillard (24.1 PER), McCollum (19.9), Nurkic (21.1), Harkless (13.1), and Vonleh (10.8). Give that team a full year run (healthy), and I expect good things.

Just thru internal improvement with Nurk, Harkless and Vonleh, the Blazers should improve their Starter performance. Nurk is only 22, Harkless is 23, and Vonleh is 21. The peak age for PER is 26. Typically there's a 7.3% increase in PER from age 22 to 26.



Our primary contributors off the bench (25th in the league by the way, ugh.) were Aminu, Crabbe, Turner, and Leonard. I fully expect Davis to return to his pre-injury form and help that second unit out considerably. His PER last year was 11.5. For 2016 it was 18.7. Career 16.8. No reason not to expect Davis to step up. Turner was also injured, but not sure how much more he can realistically contribute. His PER last year was 11.4. Career 12.3. Although they're rookies, I expect Collins and/or Swanigan to significantly push Vonleh for that starting spot.

I'm excited. Yes, we haven't yet made a free-agent signing this off-season. But I don't think that was ever expected to be the Blazers biggest option for improvement. We have a young team with a solid starting lineup, with plenty of opportunity to improve internally. Hold this core together, with perhaps some strategic tweaks here and there, and let's see how high they can take us!

 

[SIeepwalker]

It's easy to say he fucked up on his bad moves but his good moves were luck.

For all i'm concerned he can stay as long as he wants to

 

[OneLifeToLive]

If getting drafting Dame, CJ and finding players like Crabbe or Barton in the 2nd round is lacking creativity, Then I'm all for not being creative



We all know who made that pick

That pick was made before he signed on the dotted line.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

Uhhhh hold up. Not better than Paul George. Chill. That trade was straight up luck on Neil's end. Nobody knew nurk would perform the way he did with minutes. We had ideas but it just worked out luckily. I don't give Neil much credit for that aside from getting another first rounder with him

I know a lot of you are high on him. But we still don't know what we have with Nurk. I'm not ready to pin my hopes on him just yet.

 

[kjironman1]

Things really have gone wrong that are not his fault. First LMA was leaving but if he traded the guy before he knew for sure he would have been crucified. Everyone here whether you liked Aldridge or not knows this base would have turned real quick. Remember Aldridge said he was staying right up to the last game of the season. I'm gonna break all Clyde's records he said. Mathews got hurt. Batum played hurt for pretty much the entire season.
Then he had to try to rebuild. A team that was supposed to be in the lottery made the second round instead of giving Olshey a solid draft prospect. No pick and no real assets. But because they performed so well he was again forced to pay a few guys and hope they progressed so he could move who he wanted and keep who had become good. I personally would not have paid Crabbe but if AC would have performed it could have worked well. Leonard played last season hurt and did not improve. Pretty much came into camp right out of shoulder surgery and then never got it going. Crabbe didn't excel the way most hoped he would. Turner got hurt and he dropped off pretty bad as soon as he was starting to make an impact. He did get Nurkic for Plumlee and he also drafted both Dame and CJ. But even Nurkic broke a leg. What's a GM to do?

As i understand he made a solid play for Paul George. But KP would have none of it. Boston got the same cold shoulder. Olshey used a couple picks and the fan base is pretty hopeful on both of them. If one turns out to be a solid role player this year he has done excellent.

Fact is Neil Olshey has done as well as any GM in his position could have done IMO. Yes some people have ideas that he might have done differently but in the end he is in a position to continue to improve from last year, injuries permitting. I say Neil Olshey has as many years left as he wants to continue to try to bring a solid club to the NBA conference finals. If you get that far anything can happen. It takes some solid players and a bunch of luck to win a championship. Look at Golden States first championship. They won that with a bunch of luck. Every team they faced had a pretty major injury. They they lost and added a MVP. They win again. Portland needs to win some games and continue to progress.
Neil will be here at least two more years.....

 

[Cippy91]

I know a lot of you are high on him. But we still don't know what we have with Nurk. I'm not ready to pin my hopes on him just yet.

Im high on him but don't think he's the second coming like a lot on this forum. Has potential to be a star but I wanna see him play a whole season. Have concerns about his injury also. Big guy.

 

[Minstrel]

Look at Golden States first championship. They won that with a bunch of luck.

Actually, they won it with the #1 defense and tied for the #1 offense. Trying to boil this down to luck of the draw and why not Portland next is a really bad way to rationalize away the fact that Portland simply isn't anywhere close to good enough to contend right now. When Portland has a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense (or even top-10 in each), then we can start wondering if maybe things will go their way.

 

[kjironman1]

Actually, they won it with the #1 defense and tied for the #1 offense. Trying to boil this down to luck of the draw and why not Portland next is a really bad way to rationalize away the fact that Portland simply isn't anywhere close to good enough to contend right now. When Portland has a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense (or even top-10 in each), then we can start wondering if maybe things will go their way.

I simply disagree with your choice for the quote. GS did breeze through the playoffs in the 14-15 season getting a bunch of luck when teams were injured. That is the point. Not what you are extrapolating. The statement was "getting to the conference finals and anything can happen."
Don't cherry pick and make your own conclusion about what was said.
What was said is if you "get some solid players and a bunch of luck."

 

[e_blazer]

I have no problem with the moves Olshey has made as GM other than re-signing Leonard. That one was bad, unless he's able to use some Jedi mind tricks to get another GM give him something of value for Meyers.

 

[kjironman1]

I have no problem with the moves Olshey has made as GM other than re-signing Leonard. That one was bad, unless he's able to use some Jedi mind tricks to get another GM give him something of value for Meyers.

I agree. Not sure i would have matched Crabbe either but that is just me.

 

[Schilly]

Honestly I think this is kind of a lame question to ask. I know people have binders for complaining about the contracts of Turner and Crabbe but if you look at the bigger picture as inthe roster as a whole and the history as a GM, what exactly has he done that merits a hot seat at this point? Over pay? Overall the collective work has been pretty good. To the point that when his name came up in another teams GM search the last few months he was regarded as an "elite" NBA GM, yet in here we think he's trash.

 

[HailBlazers]

The funny thing is the only great move the guy has made was almost by accident. When he picked up Nurkic, the press conference was all about the value of the pick included in the deal; he definitely did not think that Jusuf was prize. Then there's all of the stuff he does on purpose that has me worried: Parsons, Turner, Crabbe, MyLe, et al.

The Jusuf 'happy accident' bought him some time, but without that deal would there be any great reason for him to still have a job?

Calln BS on this accident narrative. Sure Nurk blew up bigger / faster than anyone thought but he was most certainly a target. Olshey's crew is big on advanced stats and Nurk fit the mold of a diamond in the ruff. The whole PR thing was simply Neil trying his best to not make the Nuggets crew look bad, imho.

 

[dviss1]

Even Denver got Milsap.... Denver. Is this place like Norther Exposure or something?!

Denver is going to be paying a 35 year old 30 million per to NOT make the playoffs!! That deal wreaks of desperation.

 

[Voodoo]

You top that off with the lack of creativity he has shown in the last five years when it comes to the draft. Absolutely getting nothing with our assets in 2015 and then over paying a bunch players in 2016 to salaries they weren't worth. It's like BG said, he's full of hot air. He has 80% of you and Mr. Allen buffaloed.

Neil's got me on a buffalo! BUFFFFFFALLOOOOooohhh

 

[kjironman1]

Honestly I think this is kind of a lame question to ask. I know people have binders for complaining about the contracts of Turner and Crabbe but if you look at the bigger picture as inthe roster as a whole and the history as a GM, what exactly has he done that merits a hot seat at this point? Over pay? Overall the collective work has been pretty good. To the point that when his name came up in another teams GM search the last few months he was regarded as an "elite" NBA GM, yet in here we think he's trash.

Well from most of the responses "We" don't think he is trash. I totally agree with you on that. Olshey is not and should not be on the hot seat at all.

 

[TBpup]

I don't think Olshey is trash but do think it is completely reasonable to question some of his moves....as it is reasonable to praise him for some solid to very good Draft picks.

 

[craigehlo]

If this team isn't competing at the trade deadline for playoff seed of 6 or higher, it's time to let him go and give another GM a crack at fixing last summers' debacle.

 

[Sinobas]

His drafting has saved him. Draft skill is the most important thing in a GM IMO. I think this year's draft class will be a big success as well. He's ahead of par on his trading as well. The Nurkic trade more than made up for the Afflalo fiasco, and he's made some good moves to get in decent players like Harkless, Lopez and Plumlee.

The black mark on his record is free agency. He's been horrendous, with some of his worst ambitions thankfully not materializing (going after Hawes, Hibbert, Parsons). And of course, his 2016 FA pertiod was was by far the worst $$ to value ratio in Blazer history.

I wouldn't can him just for that though. Portland is not even going to have money to spend in free agency for a long time anyway. If he starts wiffing year after year in the draft though, and fails to improve the team in other ways, I'd want to start looking for a new gm.

 

[GDiama]

His trade for Nurkic was the best in the NBA last year. And Nurkic is better than Milsap or Butler or even Paul George actually. And he's younger than all three.

Imagine what would happen if he had played more than 65 games a season. He would have developed even more and would be up there with LeBron right now.

 

[Sinobas]

Again Olshey got lucky. He made that trade for the pick.

I tend to agree. Was he the only GM in the league that knew how good Nurkic was? If we could go back in time, teams would probably be offering Denver guys like Jimmy Butler and Paul George for Nurkic. But he made the deal so I give him credit.

 

[RR7]

I don't think Olshey is trash but do think it is completely reasonable to question some of his moves....as it is reasonable to praise him for some solid to very good Draft picks.

I agree it's fair to question bad moves. Shouldn't all be praise.

What bothers me some is saying he didn't know what he was getting in nurkic, because then people can spin anything to fit their negative view of him. And also, using free agents that didn't sign here against him. We have no idea what they would have done had they come here. If we use moves that didn't materialize in his negative column, should we then also praise him for pursuing Whiteside, for making an offer on paul George, for trying to trade up for porzingas? It would seem silly to, no?

 

[Sinobas]

I thought you guys wanted to build through the draft? If Collins and Swanigan turn out to be studs then Neil will be here for a while.

Right, we could well have 4/5ths of a very good lineup right now.

 

[Sinobas]

I don't believe. And haven't for a few years. I don't believe this market is as bad as he tries to shoulder it off as. I don't believe he buys into it and hasn't since day one. If you don't believe in something. You can't sell it. He's a large market guy that took this job because Paul Allen gave him an offer he couldn't refuse at the time. The market problem and the inability to attract free agent is a Neil Olshey problem. Not a Portland problem and has been since day one.

You top that off with the lack of creativity he has shown in the last five years when it comes to the draft. Absolutely getting nothing with our assets in 2015 and then over paying a bunch players in 2016 to salaries they weren't worth. It's like BG said, he's full of hot air. He has 80% of you and Mr. Allen buffaloed. Bottom line, he can't sell it. To the Free Agent. To the opposing General Manger. To anyone important that could play a key role to getting this team to where I think this organization wants to get to.

It's way, way, wayyyy time for him to go. He's had five years. Wasted resources. Lots excuses and nothing to show for it.

How many teams attract free agents due to their market location alone? I think the Lakers, Knicks are the only ones really. The others attract FAs due to their success. When Portland was good back in the late 90s guys wanted to come here.

 

[Mediocre Man]

His trade for Nurkic was the best in the NBA last year. And Nurkic is better than Milsap or Butler or even Paul George actually. And he's younger than all three.

Cmon, man. Nurk is a great addition, but Butler and George are on a completely higher level. Milsap arguably is as well.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think Olshey should get tgrough the season. If he can make some changes at the deadline, we can revisit it

 

[Minstrel]

I simply disagree with your choice for the quote. GS did breeze through the playoffs in the 14-15 season getting a bunch of luck when teams were injured. That is the point. Not what you are extrapolating. The statement was "getting to the conference finals and anything can happen."
Don't cherry pick and make your own conclusion about what was said.
What was said is if you "get some solid players and a bunch of luck."

Yeah, but that's wrong, IMO. You need more than "some solid players" and luck. The Warriors had the most talented team in basketball. That was the most important thing. That they also had luck with injuries was not the important thing. In my opinion, you're ignoring that the Warriors were tremendously talented (by implying that all they had was "some solid players" and what really won them the title was luck). The Blazers aren't anywhere near that talented and no amount of "luck" will overcome that.

 

[Denny Crane]

He's in year 3 of a rebuilding plan. I say he gets at least 5 years. I am not at all unhappy with the progress so far.

This draft looks good, the team looks really good when Nurk is healthy. NO deserves the credit for getting Nurk, no?

I've been impressed with him all along. This might be because he's SOOOO much better than the clowns in Chicago, or it might be because he's as good as I think he is.

The cash for Quarterman deal was just brilliant. It shows he's on top of the financials and CBA issues.