How would you rank Oden as a starting C as of today?

[Further]

Some Centers are clearly better, like Howard, Duncan and Bynum, some are clearly worse like Dalembert or Krstic, and then there are a lot that should be in the conversation around Oden like Lopez, Noah, Gasol et al.

 

[magnifier661]

Some Centers are clearly better, like Howard, Duncan and Bynum, some are clearly worse like Dalembert or Krstic, and then there are a lot that should be in the conversation around Oden like Lopez, Noah, Gasol et al.

Well so far, Oden outplayed Duncan on their head to head match-up. Also, Oden has beat up on Okafor and Chandler too. I would say he is getting much better. I am still holding on to my prediction of 15 points/12.6 rebounds/2.1 blocks a game. By mid season, it should be around 12 points, 10 rebounds and 2.6 blocks a game, but as the season ends, I suspect his blocks to go down a bit, since he will be more of an offensive presence.

 

[Further]

Well so far, Oden outplayed Duncan on their head to head match-up. Also, Oden has beat up on Okafor and Chandler too. I would say he is getting much better. I am still holding on to my prediction of 15 points/12.6 rebounds/2.1 blocks a game. By mid season, it should be around 12 points, 10 rebounds and 2.6 blocks a game, but as the season ends, I suspect his blocks to go down a bit, since he will be more of an offensive presence.

I almost left Duncan off that list, but with all his history, and still putting up a 25+ PER, I thought that I would give him the nod as being better than Oden. In any single matchup, a lesser player can outplay the better one.

 

[magnifier661]

I almost left Duncan off that list, but with all his history, and still putting up a 25+ PER, I thought that I would give him the nod as being better than Oden. In any single matchup, a lesser player can outplay the better one.

True. I just figured since many in here will base a season off of one game, it would only be fair. You are right though. Duncan is clearly a better player statistically this season.

 

[andalusian]

Oden is probably a top-10 center in the league so far. As soon as he can stay on the court for 35 minutes, he will be top-5.

 

[magnifier661]

Oden is probably a top-10 center in the league so far. As soon as he can stay on the court for 35 minutes, he will be top-5.

Can't wait for his match-up with Howard, Shaq and Bynum. It will be nice to see him play against other power centers in the league and see what he has going for him. I just hope the refs let them play.

 

[PapaG]

If Oden can just play 30 minutes unsaddled from foul trouble, he'll be in the "elite" category as well by the end of next season. It's hard to put up numbers in 17 minutes of foul-plagued game-time, yet he manages to do it and to impact the game positively. On the rare occasions that he stays free of foul trouble, he is the most dominating figure on the floor, and he impacts the game as such.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Right now, Oden is putting up a nice PER in severely limited minutes. That makes him either a really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter.

Not playing = not contributing. Blame the refs, blame Nate, blame the guards...the equation doesn't change. He can't be compared to the best starting centers until he plays starters' minutes.

 

[andalusian]

Hollinger's player stats for Centers put Greg at #4 in the league for PER and #8 for Value Added/Estimated Wins Added.

Which matches my opinion, currently he is a top-10 Center in the league. As soon as he can stay on the court for 35 minutes, he will be top-5.

really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter is selling him short, even with the foul trouble. Otherwise, he would not be top-8 among centers in Value-Added/Estimated Wins Added.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&pos=c&seasonType=2

 

[blazerboy30]

Right now, Oden is putting up a nice PER in severely limited minutes. That makes him either a really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter.

Not playing = not contributing. Blame the refs, blame Nate, blame the guards...the equation doesn't change. He can't be compared to the best starting centers until he plays starters' minutes.

If not PER, then how do you want to compare the centers? A PER of 21.7 is not even close to a "good back-up" or "barely adequate starter". That puts him at 20th in the league overall and 4th for centers.

Please provide a better metric to use to compare the players.

 

[Idog1976]

Right now, Oden is putting up a nice PER in severely limited minutes. That makes him either a really good back-up, or a barely adequate starter.

Not playing = not contributing. Blame the refs, blame Nate, blame the guards...the equation doesn't change. He can't be compared to the best starting centers until he plays starters' minutes.

WTF? Adequate starter = PER 15.00 Oden is higher then Roy right now...does that make you higher then Jesus (To use a Onionized version of a Lennon quote)?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

If I had to look at his body of work this season so far, I'd grade it a D+ or C-.

He is a starting center that can't seem to stay on the floor most of the time. As such, he's failing there.

That said, when he can manage to stay on the floor he does a good job. Not great, but good.

 

[PapaG]

If not PER, then how do you want to compare the centers? A PER of 21.7 is not even close to a "good back-up" or "barely adequate starter". That puts him at 20th in the league overall and 4th for centers.

Please provide a better metric to use to compare the players.

Not my post, but on-court minutes did impact my ranking of Oden behind the "elite" centers. Until he can consistently be depended upon to stay in the game, his positive contributions to the team are not being maximized. He does have a fantastic PER, and he had one last year as well. So, as his minutes go up, his numbers and impact on the game will as well, and he'll be on the same level as "elite" players now who have a similar PER.

 

[blazerboy30]

If I had to look at his body of work this season so far, I'd grade it a D+ or C-.

He is a starting center that can't seem to stay on the floor most of the time. As such, he's failing there.

That said, when he can manage to stay on the floor he does a good job. Not great, but good.

What should a "starting center" be producing?

 

[oldmangrouch]

If not PER, then how do you want to compare the centers? A PER of 21.7 is not even close to a "good back-up" or "barely adequate starter". That puts him at 20th in the league overall and 4th for centers.

Please provide a better metric to use to compare the players.

PER is a perfectly fine metric, as long as you keep in mind what it is, and isn't.

PER is playing time neutral. IMHO, that is OK....as long as you keep it clearly in mind when comparing 2 players. Last I looked, Speights (of Philly) was in the top 5 in the league for PER. Is he a top 5 player? Is he even a top 5 PF? No, and Hollinger himself would be the first to admit it. All his PER proves, is that he is very efficient in the limited minutes he actually plays.

Put it this way - would you prefer a player who has an 18 PER in 36 MPG, or a player who has a 21 PER in 18 MPG?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't know where to find this, but I imagine that "Total Wins Added" is a pretty good metric. If he's doing well in that, it doesn't matter if he's on the court for 18 or 36 minutes.

 

[andalusian]

Put it this way - would you prefer a player who has an 18 PER in 36 MPG, or a player who has a 21 PER in 18 MPG?

That's where VA (Value Added) comes in. It measures contribution and includes playing time (PER is efficiency).

Again, in VA - Oden is the #8 center in the league this year. That's your answer, right there. Top-10.

Since Greg averages 22 MPG - I am not sure where the 18 MPG comes from.

But, Greg, at 21+ PER for 22 MPG is ranked higher, in VA than Nene - with 18 PER at 34 MPG

 

[PapaG]

I don't know where to find this, but I imagine that "Total Wins Added" is a pretty good metric. If he's doing well in that, it doesn't matter if he's on the court for 18 or 36 minutes.

TWA, for me, isn't an important measurement for players on limited minutes who are also on good teams.

 

[PapaG]

That's where VA (Value Added) comes in. It measures contribution and includes playing time (PER is efficiency).

Again, in VA - Oden is the #8 center in the league this year. That's your answer, right there. Top-10.

Correct, and it's safe to assume that Oden's VA will increase as he stays on the floor for more minutes. So, it seems oldmangrouch and I share the opinion that Oden won't be "elite" until he plays more than 23 mpg. It appears we differ on how good Oden is now, however. Even at this limited minutes, Oden is a very good starting center.

 

[andalusian]

I don't know where to find this, but I imagine that "Total Wins Added" is a pretty good metric. If he's doing well in that, it doesn't matter if he's on the court for 18 or 36 minutes.

That would be EPA in the link I provided above. Again - #8 in the league.

 

[hasoos]

Well this question is easy. If the Blazers win tonight, he ranks #1. If they lose, he ends up somewhere near the bottom!

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't know the basis of TWA, but my impression of it was that it's individualized (not like, say, +/-).

Oden's impact on the floor is more and more consistently dominant. I'll grant that he's not all-star status, yet, due in large part to minutes played. But I don't see that one can say Oden isn't among the Top 5-10 C's in the league b/c of his usage. Which other C in the league is benched for the half when he gets two fouls?

 

[andalusian]

Looking at other measures, BBR has Win-Score - which is a bit like EPA - based on their formula, Greg Oden's Win-Score so far this year is 2nd/3rd/4th among centers with Bynum and Horford at 1.3 behind D-12 at 1.7

 

[magnifier661]

Greg is God. Forget all the hoopla over the "PER" numbers. Just embrace that once his fouls become controlled, he will help control the game. FUCK THE NBA AND THEIR REFS that give Oden no love!

 

[PapaG]

Looking at other measures, BBR has Win-Score - which is a bit like EPA - based on their formula, Greg Oden's Win-Score so far this year is 2nd/3rd/4th among centers with Bynum and Horford at 1.3 behind D-12 at 1.7

My problem with win-score and the like are the bias toward players on good teams. While an "individualized" stat, it is dependent on teammates, as there is no true statistic to extract an individual player's impact on winning games. I like the stat, but honestly, I like PER more as a comparative tool.

 

[oldmangrouch]

That's where VA (Value Added) comes in. It measures contribution and includes playing time (PER is efficiency).

Again, in VA - Oden is the #8 center in the league this year. That's your answer, right there. Top-10.

Since Greg averages 22 MPG - I am not sure where the 18 MPG comes from.

But, Greg, at 21+ PER for 22 MPG is ranked higher, in VA than Nene - with 18 PER at 34 MPG

This is an area where I suspect stat-rats and coaches are *not* on the same page. I have no doubt that most coaches would prefer having Nene on the court, to having Oden on the bench. If nothing else, having a guy you can rely on for big minutes every night gives the team more consistency and continuity.

The Blazers are very lucky to have Joel around to step in! Otherwise, people wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the issue.

 

[Further]

Looking at other measures, BBR has Win-Score - which is a bit like EPA - based on their formula, Greg Oden's Win-Score so far this year is 2nd/3rd/4th among centers with Bynum and Horford at 1.3 behind D-12 at 1.7

I am not sure how VA is calculated, but win score will benefit teams with better records just as PER does not take into account minutes played. Lopez is on the terrible Net's, so my guess is that his win score would be low, but he is a very good C.

 

[andalusian]

My problem with win-score and the like are the bias toward players on good teams. While an "individualized" stat, it is dependent on teammates, as there is no true statistic to extract an individual player's impact on winning games. I like the stat, but honestly, I like PER more as a comparative tool.

Me too. And VA is the answer to what OMG wanted to know about production. But, what WS gives you that PER (and VA) does not - is the defensive component. PER/VA for offensive production and DWS for defensive production.

I think what we see here is that when you look at Greg's offensive contribution he is top-5 by efficiency, top-10 by value (limited by minutes) - but when you add the defensive portion (which DWS measures) - his value jumps to top-5 even with his limited minutes.

I find it hard to argue with these conclusions - Greg won us some games defensively by himself pretty single-handily. He is a game changer on the defensive end - even if he does it in limited minutes.

Again - if we could have a better tool for defensive contributions - I would leave WS out - but since we do not, we should use it as another data point. It's the best we might have for this side of the court.

 

[andalusian]

I am not sure how VA is calculated, but win score will benefit teams with better records just as PER does not take into account minutes played. Lopez is on the terrible Net's, so my guess is that his win score would be low, but he is a very good C.

VA has nothing to do with wins, and I agree that win-score is problematic, but for the defensive side of the game - PER and VA are very limited.

 

[Further]

This is an area where I suspect stat-rats and coaches are *not* on the same page. I have no doubt that most coaches would prefer having Nene on the court, to having Oden on the bench. If nothing else, having a guy you can rely on for big minutes every night gives the team more consistency and continuity.

The Blazers are very lucky to have Joel around to step in! Otherwise, people wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the issue.

I disagree, especially when you have a great BU like Joel. It's not like when Oden is out, there are no other options.