OT Hurricane Irma

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
Mediocre Man said:
Irma has been downgraded to a cat 2. Likely pick up steam again, but just passing on info
Click to expand...
Dealing with dry air and moderate SSTs. 36 hours from now, neither of those will be a problem, and I think it will really start to intensify.
 
Chupacabra said:
Ductless? Window unit?
Click to expand...

Mediocre Man said:
I would assume he means a ductless mini split system. I have one in my garage. We thought about doing the house as well, but my wife wouldn't sign off on the bulky cooling unit on the walls. They are super efficient though.
Click to expand...
Yep. That is what I meant. It is very efficient and we got an energy credit on taxes too.
 
Mediocre Man said:
We know you do
Click to expand...

Mediocre Man said:
Yep. Projecting a massive hurricane
Click to expand...
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic about this... it seems like a subtle shot because I have an educated belief that this storm will be horrible. Models keep trending South and West, and support stronger ridging to the north.

Maybe devastation is more common to talk for people than about that the meteorological patterns that determine if that devastation occurs, I'm different. Do you truly not think this will hit? Or is it just your way of poking fun?
 
BonesJones said:
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic about this... it seems like a subtle shot because I have an educated belief that this storm will be horrible. Models keep trending South and West, and support stronger ridging to the north.

Maybe devastation is more common to talk for people than about that the meteorological patterns that determine if that devastation occurs, I'm different. Do you truly not think this will hit? Or is it just your way of poking fun?
Click to expand...
I do not think it will hit because if the high fronts pushing it east, and I'm poking fun. And I just cant deal with another one. They suck. They are terrifying, nerve racking, costly. So part of me too, just doesn't wanna talk about it.

BUT, our meteorologists here think there is a good chance it won't hit the US. That can obviously change. The track for Harvey reentering the gulf and coming back through Houston changed daily
 
Last edited:
Mediocre Man said:
I do not think it will hit because if the high fronts pushing it east, and I'm poking fun. And I just cant deal with another one. They suck. They are terrifying, nerve racking, costly. So part of me too, just doesn't wanna talk about it.

BUT, our meteorologists here think there is a good chance it won't hit the US. That can obviously change. The track for Harvey reentering the gulf and coming back through Houston changed daily
Click to expand...
I understand what you're saying. It would definitely suck.

But I gotta face the present reality. Every weather/hurricane model is forecasting an east coast landfall. There is a trough, but it's going to left to the north, allowing the Bermuda High to build more westward (underneath it), and delay Irmas northward turn.

Harvey was a combination of so many bad things other than it's show track. It was unexpected, rapidly intensified right before landfall, and made landfall south of a major city.

Irma should have none of those, so hopefully nobody is caught off guard and out impacts a remote place. It just has a 500 mile wide target to hit, while Harvey's forecasting differences were a 50 mile different.

Just have to focus on bringing relief to Texas 1st. Hopefully improve that situation as quickly as possible in order to be ready for anything that could come from this. But thank god these storms didn't happen at the same time.
 
Mediocre Man said:
I do not think it will hit because if the high fronts pushing it east, and I'm poking fun. And I just cant deal with another one. They suck. They are terrifying, nerve racking, costly. So part of me too, just doesn't wanna talk about it.

BUT, our meteorologists here think there is a good chance it won't hit the US. That can obviously change. The track for Harvey reentering the gulf and coming back through Houston changed daily
Click to expand...
In case you're interested, this is the site I use to track: www.wunderground.com/tropical

The articles have huge comment sections that I believe is very helpful to anyone in the potential path of a hurricane. I find it very insightful.
 
at201711_ensmodel (1).gif Uh oh, not good.

This thing is definitely going to hit the U.S. The Bermuda High is building stronger than anyone could've predicted.

Anyone who says it'll likely go out to sea is lying.
 
BonesJones said:
I understand what you're saying. It would definitely suck.

But I gotta face the present reality. Every weather/hurricane model is forecasting an east coast landfall. There is a trough, but it's going to left to the north, allowing the Bermuda High to build more westward (underneath it), and delay Irmas northward turn.

Harvey was a combination of so many bad things other than it's show track. It was unexpected, rapidly intensified right before landfall, and made landfall south of a major city.

Irma should have none of those, so hopefully nobody is caught off guard and out impacts a remote place. It just has a 500 mile wide target to hit, while Harvey's forecasting differences were a 50 mile different.

Just have to focus on bringing relief to Texas 1st. Hopefully improve that situation as quickly as possible in order to be ready for anything that could come from this. But thank god these storms didn't happen at the same time.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's a hobby or a job for you, but our meteorologists still think the high pressure system will push this out to the Atlantic, or has a good chance to anyway.

Edit: it shifted south. Yes, it will hit the US. Selfishly, this thing needs to stay away from Texas
 
Last edited:
Mediocre Man said:
I don't know if it's a hobby or a job for you, but our meteorologists still think the high pressure system will push this out to the Atlantic, or has a good chance to anyway.

Edit: it shifted south. Yes, it will hit the US. Selfishly, this thing needs to stay away from Texas
Click to expand...
It's a hobby, but I'm getting my info straight from the NHC. I wouldn't trust local meteorology on the matter, that's why I posted that link. Especially local meteorology in a place that just got rocked by one.

It's not selfish that you don't want it to go to Texas. Two major hurricane hitting there in less than two weeks would compound devastation exponentially.

The only problem is it could hit anywhere in Florida. Evacuations would be extremely tough already due to the shape of the state, but theyll probably have no idea where it will hit until a couple days before.
 
BonesJones said:
It's a hobby, but I'm getting my info straight from the NHC. I wouldn't trust local meteorology on the matter, that's why I posted that link. Especially local meteorology in a place that just got rocked by one.

It's not selfish that you don't want it to go to Texas. Two major hurricane hitting there in less than two weeks would compound devastation exponentially.

The only problem is it could hit anywhere in Florida. Evacuations would be extremely tough already due to the shape of the state, but theyll probably have no idea where it will hit until a couple days before.
Click to expand...
Our meteorologists get their info straight from the NHC also. I trust them they do tbis everyday from June through November
 
Mediocre Man said:
Our meteorologists get their info straight from the NHC also. I trust them they do tbis everyday from June through November
Click to expand...
They just seem a day or two behind on this thing.
 
So glad I don't live on the gulf or the east coast. That said, the big one is going to happen here sooner or later.
 
Mediocre Man said:
They aren't here
Click to expand...
I don't understand what you mean.

So far, I've been right about everything. Irma moved out of the dry air and toward warmer SSTs, and strengthened, as I predicted. She's now a Cat 4. There will be almost certainly a US landfall, which I've been saying the whole time.

Thing is, with the model runs and way the ridge is setting up, this was obvious a couple days ago, and wasn't that hard to predict. This is what made it weird for me, that these meteorologists kept saying it was likely to go out to sea. I trust that they know what they're talking about and could be good at their job, they've just been off on this whole thing.
 
Three scenarios right now: (For anyone interested)
#1. Furthest SW Track
- Would take the storm over P.R., D.R., Haiti, and Cuba in order. This would be devastating but would likely weaken the storm to a category 1 hurricane. Problem is, if it takes this track it'll end up to the west of Florida when it turns due north, and will have some time to restrengthen before a potentially catastrophic landfall in Tampa or the panhandle.
#2. Middle Track
- Would take the storm just north of the islands, still bringing heavy impacts to the islands but also being offshore, which would allow it to maintain or strengthen intensity. This is the current forecast. Would then hit turn north at the southern tip of Florida, potentially hitting Miami as a Cat 5.
#3. Eastern Track
- Would be further north of the islands, turning north sooner, ending up in the Georgia/Carolina coast area.
 
BonesJones said:
Three scenarios right now: (For anyone interested)
#1. Furthest SW Track
- Would take the storm over P.R., D.R., Haiti, and Cuba in order. This would be devastating but would likely weaken the storm to a category 1 hurricane. Problem is, if it takes this track it'll end up to the west of Florida when it turns due north, and will have some time to restrengthen before a potentially catastrophic landfall in Tampa or the panhandle.
#2. Middle Track
- Would take the storm just north of the islands, still bringing heavy impacts to the islands but also being offshore, which would allow it to maintain or strengthen intensity. This is the current forecast. Would then hit turn north at the southern tip of Florida, potentially hitting Miami as a Cat 5.
#3. Eastern Track
- Would be further north of the islands, turning north sooner, ending up in the Georgia/Carolina coast area.
Click to expand...
Even if #1 occurs, it's possible the storm could stay north of the islands.
euro-highprob-sep4.png


The red track would be an absolute worst case scenario. Stays north of the big islands, bringing heavy impacts. Would hit the Turks and southern Bahamas directly, then would basically make skirt the entire Miami coastline as potentially a Cat 4/5, then would get away from the coast (possibly not weakening at all), then would make landfall in the Daytona Beach/Jacksonville area.
 
BonesJones said:
I don't understand what you mean.

So far, I've been right about everything. Irma moved out of the dry air and toward warmer SSTs, and strengthened, as I predicted. She's now a Cat 4. There will be almost certainly a US landfall, which I've been saying the whole time.

Thing is, with the model runs and way the ridge is setting up, this was obvious a couple days ago, and wasn't that hard to predict. This is what made it weird for me, that these meteorologists kept saying it was likely to go out to sea. I trust that they know what they're talking about and could be good at their job, they've just been off on this whole thing.
Click to expand...
Projections go out 5 days. Anything after that is a pure guess
 
Mediocre Man said:
Projections go out 5 days. Anything after that is a pure guess
Click to expand...
In terms of exact locality, yes.

In terms of general locality, it depends on the situation. If the models show a building ridge to the north and a lifting trough, it should end up staying west/northwestward getting it close enough to the coast by day 5 that any potential northward turn still has it making landfall by day 10, and if it doesn't turn north, then Florida gets messed up. That's the best I can explain it. The US is big, so the location of the storm and the weather patterns at day 5 influence what happens afterwards.
 
BonesJones said:
Three scenarios right now: (For anyone interested)
#1. Furthest SW Track
- Would take the storm over P.R., D.R., Haiti, and Cuba in order. This would be devastating but would likely weaken the storm to a category 1 hurricane. Problem is, if it takes this track it'll end up to the west of Florida when it turns due north, and will have some time to restrengthen before a potentially catastrophic landfall in Tampa or the panhandle.
#2. Middle Track
- Would take the storm just north of the islands, still bringing heavy impacts to the islands but also being offshore, which would allow it to maintain or strengthen intensity. This is the current forecast. Would then hit turn north at the southern tip of Florida, potentially hitting Miami as a Cat 5.
#3. Eastern Track
- Would be further north of the islands, turning north sooner, ending up in the Georgia/Carolina coast area.
Click to expand...

Damn Cat 5....so potentially the biggest hurricane to hit the united states.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

SlyPokerDog
OT Hurricane Laura
Replies
12
Views
584
Lanny
Lanny
truebluefan
Extreme Hurricane Irma closing in on Florida, posing dire threat
Replies
1
Views
605
truebluefan
truebluefan
truebluefan
Two new tropical threats are taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean
Replies
0
Views
342
truebluefan
truebluefan
PtldPlatypus
Exclusive 2018 hurricane season
Replies
1
Views
149
PtldPlatypus
PtldPlatypus
SlyPokerDog
'A hurricane of this size has never struck Florida before': Category 4 Matthew bears down
2
Replies
33
Views
4K
Denny Crane
Denny Crane

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top