I asked this question a year ago....

[MIXUM]

Now this thread has nothing to do with ragging on anyone. This thread is a legit question that you really have to ponder. Last year at seasons end, I asked which path if any are the blazers likely to follow for this season. When I though about it, I came to the conclusion that the blazers would most likely follow in 1 of these 2 im about to detail.

2009-2010 Hornets.

They were the darlings of the NBA in 2007-2008. Chris Paul was just taking off. They surprised many. Just like the blazers did in 2008-2009. Brandon roy became a star like Paul. The following season the hornets made the playoffs but only as a 7th seed which was way below expectations. They had brought in vets that didn't pan out. Injuries to Paul limited them but they still got in the playoffs. However last season they missed out on playoffs all together and seem to be falling apart. What once was suppose to be an elite team for years to come has now become trade assets at the deadline. The blazers could also be this team. The blazers were darlinGs going into last season but had injuries, made the playoffs but never reached up to expectations. They also have health concerns about roy. But the hornets never reached the ground many thought. The hornets also fired their coach early in the year after a bad start, Nate is on the hot seat as well.


2009-2010 Jazz

This team finally lived up to the hype because they were FINALLY HEALTHY. Dominant at times. Reached 2nd round. This team underachieved for years before that esp the previous season. Just like the jazz, if healthy the Blazers could take this path but already major concerns up front are making me wonder. The Jazz also boast an elite guard but Willaims is better then Roy.


SO.... i have to wonder which team the blazers will be, the team who cannot over come major injuries and misses the playoffs or the team that finally lives up to the hype. I dont think the bLazers will have a middle ground here, to me its either they are gonna be a top 5 seed or will miss the playoffs because of injuries and chemistry. So which is it in your opinion?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Both

If Oden, Roy stay down for a significant part of the season, then it's New Orleans. If Oden and Roy stay healthy, it's Utah

 

[Wheels]

I dont think they miss the playoffs... so given that I only have two options.. top 5 seed?

 

[blazerboy30]

How do you get so many random capitalized letters showing up in the middle of words in your post? "darlinGs"? "bLazers"? It is odd.

 

[MIXUM]

oden is already down for a significant chunk so.....?

like i said wheels... i think its one or other

 

[mook]

I don't really know that the Jazz are some kind of "team of the future" I really care to emulate.

They got rid of a great young perimeter defender (Matthews) and replaced him with a creaky old guy who played only a couple of games last year.

Their center is 31 and is not a dominant shot blocker or defender or rebounder. (On the plus side, he's at least healthy for reasonable stretches, unlike our centers.)

Al Jefferson is kind of a mystery. I think he'll do great in Utah, but it's hard to be sure.

On the other hand, I'm not sure I even agree with your premise that Utah had some kind of "breakthrough" season last year. They've made it out of the first round 3 of the last 4 years. 4 years ago they made it to the conference finals, and haven't missed the playoffs since 2005-06. They were good last year, just as they have been generally good for several years now.

Overall, their win/loss record over the past 2 seasons has been .615. The Blazers has been .634. Obviously, they've done better in the playoffs, but it's not like either team is that much better or worse than the other recently.

 

[MIXUM]

http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/play/nba

eagle seems to think more hornets/who knows

 

[hasoos]

One thing you don't mention about the Hornets problems though is the injury bug hit them really hard as well, and that is important. Because I see a lot of parallel themes between this team and that one. Paul was main star. Roy is our main star. David West is an outside shooting PF who can't carry a team. Lamarcus is an outside shooting PF who can't carry a team. Both have rebounding issues. Both teams have lots of injuries. Both teams had coaches who were ex players. Where Peja got hurt for the Hornet, Rudy got hurt for the Blazers. Both had back injuries. Both teams are 1 deep at center, and get in trouble once that one center is out of the lineup.

 

[mook]

Anyway, I think a better comparison for ultimate upside might be the 1998 Spurs. Young long-hyped interior defender/rebounder/scorer (Duncan/Oden) joins a pretty nice mixture of defensive stalwarts, and the team superstar (Robinson/Roy) returns to full health. They win 56 games the first year, and a championship a year later. Then have a decade of always being at least a contender.

That may sound pie-in-the-sky now, but the idea probably sounded pie-in-the-sky to a lot of NBA fans back in 1997 when the Spurs won 20 games.

I don't know that we'll be that good, but that seems a much better description than the current Jazz of potential upside. Last year with one extra healthy knee our team was as good as the Jazz.

 

[MIXUM]

the blazers and hornets are almost a mirror image.

thats why i wonder if we become them this year and fall out of the playoffs in west

 

[mook]

One thing you don't mention about the Hornets problems though is the injury bug hit them really hard as well, and that is important. Because I see a lot of parallel themes between this team and that one. Paul was main star. Roy is our main star. David West is an outside shooting PF who can't carry a team. Lamarcus is an outside shooting PF who can't carry a team. Both have rebounding issues. Both teams have lots of injuries. Both teams had coaches who were ex players. Where Peja got hurt for the Hornet, Rudy got hurt for the Blazers. Both had back injuries. Both teams are 1 deep at center, and get in trouble once that one center is out of the lineup.

That's an interesting comparison. I think our ace-in-the-hole is that we've got more secondary players who could turn into something special. Oden and Batum each have more upside than anybody on the Hornets' roster outside of Paul.

 

[MIXUM]

you cannot count oden at this point with him being out till xmas. i have learned not to count on him

lets stay on topic though please.

 

[HailBlazers]

you sir are the...





Thought I'd add some BS to this thread, mirror image haha

 

[mook]

you cannot count oden at this point with him being out till xmas. i have learned not to count on him

lets stay on topic though please.

So we're supposed to discuss potential upside and downside of the team, but aren't allowed to discuss upside and downside of a player on the team? Uh, ok. Guess I'm checking out of this thread.

 

[Minstrel]

you cannot count oden at this point with him being out till xmas. i have learned not to count on him

lets stay on topic though please.

Admonishing yourself to stay on topic. Good one.

 

[Minstrel]

So we're supposed to discuss potential upside and downside of the team, but aren't allowed to discuss upside and downside of a player on the team? Uh, ok. Guess I'm checking out of this thread.

I think he was saying "Oden's a dud, but don't argue with me about that because that would be off-topic."

 

[MIXUM]

what im saying is... we know oden is out almost half the season NOW

 

[HailBlazers]

we know no such thing, and neither do you

 

[Minstrel]

what im saying is... we know oden is out almost half the season NOW

Please keep this on topic, thanks.

 

[MIXUM]

anyone involved with the nba says oden is a bust/major question mark this year health wise.

blazer fans here say hes gonna be back soon and will dominate

hmmm

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I would just like to comment that this is one of the most intelligent, rational, well-reasoned MIXUM threads I've ever seen. It is an excellent question.

That said, the basic premise is nothing different than anything we've been saying for a while. Healthy, this team will be very good, possibly dominant. If injury woes continue, things will not go well. I'm going to be optimistic and hope for the former, but not be too devastated if we see the latter. Que sera sera.

 

[HailBlazers]

wow another Re-hash of the same question, no way! I don't believe it!

 

[MIXUM]

we are fairly healthy now (roy wise) and getting owned the entire pre season

roy is more like the 2nd or 3rd tier star.... and that seems like a stretch

 

[Minstrel]

we are fairly healthy now (roy wise) and getting owned the entire pre season

It's just pre-season.

roy is more like the 2nd or 3rd tier star.... and that seems like a stretch

A major stretch. He's may a fourth-tier star and maybe a fifth-tier star. I think, honestly, he's no worse than a sixth-tier star.

 

[mook]

Minstrel's posts on this thread are perfect examples of why nobody should ever block MIXUM. Too fun to miss.

 

[hasoos]

we are fairly healthy now (roy wise) and getting owned the entire pre season

roy is more like the 2nd or 3rd tier star.... and that seems like a stretch

Roy has always been a 2nd tier star, so I am wondering why you think that he slipped. Roy has also performed badly in pre season every year that I can remember as well. In some seasons, he even took 5 or 6 games to get going. If you don't expect out of him what is unrealistic, you don't end up dissappointed.

 

[RoyToy]

If the Blazers were going to be the Hornets it would have started last year...but it didn't. Despite all the injuries the Blazers still made the playoffs and won 2 games without their best two players(Roy/Oden) against a team that went to the WCF. People can worry all they want but this team has shown it's resilient and won't give up. It also helped KP saved the season by trading scraps for Camby. That move is already saving the Blazers' ass this season.

Why was he fired again? That move will be a black mark on the franchise moving forward.

 

[Natebishop3]

The Blazers can't be the Hornets because Chris Paul is better than Brandon Roy and David West is a two-time All-Star, while LMA has a goose egg in that department

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The Blazers can't be the Hornets because Chris Paul is better than Brandon Roy and David West is a two-time All-Star, while LMA has a goose egg in that department

Not to mention that Peja Stojakovic won 5 more playoff series before arriving in NO than Miller has.

 

[Natebishop3]

Not to mention that Peja Stojakovic won 5 more playoff series before arriving in NO than Miller has.

You know it's funny... you don't usually see a shooter deteriorate as quickly as Peja did. Dude just disappeared... poof.... gone. I remember Dale Ellis held on forever. So did Steve Kerr. What happened to Peja?