If KCP/Otto Porter get max deals..

[PtldPlatypus]

FWIW

Bulls are shopping Rondo. He has a ~$13M team option so trading for him gets you potentially $13M cap relieve.

I'll state the obvious. If NO doesn't do a salary dump, we're paying the LT for this and likely next seasons.

On the other hand, doing the Quarterman for cash trade is one of several salary saving moves that are obvious ones to make (and NO did).

Rondo for Leonard? I could deal with that.

 

[Sarni]

Ed Davis is better than Meyers Leonard. Doesn't mean you pay Ed Davis 18 million a year.

Porter + KCP are 6-9 million PER year better than ET/Crabbe?

Saw a report of Andre Roberson getting 15/mill year, also.

Roberson at $15M is mad but it's still the effect of the cap growing too much over the last two years. Porter and Caldwell-Pope I would probably be fine paying $15M - $17M a season.

 

[Sarni]

Rondo for Leonard? I could deal with that.

Leonard would be great for tanking. If their short and mid term plan is to tank, putting Leonard at starting center would be a brilliant move.

 

[Denny Crane]

Rondo for Leonard? I could deal with that.

Leonard played his college ball at University of Illinois. He's be a good fit there, too, playing HoiBall.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Leonard played his college ball at University of Illinois. He's be a good fit there, too, playing HoiBall.

Honestly not familiar with Hoiberg's style. What types of players are particularly suited for it?

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

It's not a mistake. It's the market and thats what it says they're worth. One day some of you will accept it.

It was half-truth, half-sarcasm. Not that I'd expect you to understand that.

 

[Boob-No-More]

It's hard for me to come to that same conclusion that they are overpaid when we see the money that will be given out going forward, especially if players like Andre Roberson get 15 million - and he isn't even a restricted free agent. That's insane. ET at 18 is a bargain.

Why is that insane? Roberson is 3 years younger than Turner and has not yet reached his peak. He was just named 2nd team all defense and was a full time starter on a 47-win team. Turner was a bench player on a 41-win team.

He's not a great shooter, but neither is Turner. Roberson's TS% is actually higher (.510 vs. 491). The only reason Turner scores more is because he has a MUCH higher USG% (18.5 vs. 10.1). Unfortunately, Turner uses up way too many possessions (with turnovers and missed shots) for the offense he generates.

The big difference is in the advanced stats, where Roberson absolutely kills Turner.

Offensive Rating:
Roberson = 108
Turner = 100

Defensive Rating:
Roberson = 106
Turner = 111

Net Rating:
Roberson = +2
Turner = -11

Offensive Win Shares:
Roberson = 1.1
Turner = 0.0

Defensive Wins Shares:
Roberson = 3.1
Turner = 1.2

Total Wins Shares:
Roberson = 4.2
Turner = 1.2

Win Shares per 48:
Roberson = .085
Turner = .035

Offensive Box +/-
Roberson = -2.1
Turner = -2.5

Defensive Box +/-
Roberson = 2.1
Turner = -0.1

Box +/-
Roberson = 0.0
Turner = -2.6

Value over Replacement Player:
Roberson = 1.2
Turner = -0.3

Both are below average offensively. Roberson is an elite defender. Turner is an average defender. Roberson is an above average player overall, because he is one of the top 4 defensive wings in the league. Turner is a below average player overall because he does nothing at an elite level and several things below average (shooting, turnovers, etc.). Roberson is three years younger and apparently, will be making about $3 million a year less than Turner - and you called that insane.

So yes, Evan Turner is overpaid. So is Allen Crabbe and so is Meyer Leonard. Sure, after last summer's spending spree, you can point out a couple specific examples (Chandler Parsons and Timofey Mosgov) of players who are even more overpaid, but that doesn't change the fact that, based on their production, Turner, Crabbe and Leonard are all overpaid.

BNM

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

And there are also people on this forum that don't give a fuck about Paul Allen's bank account balance, as long as it doesn't hinder the teams' ability to get better.

Unfortunately, overpaying guys who are underperforming does just that. One of the major features of the current CBA is that the luxury tax is no longer just a financial penalty. It also has additional penalties that make it more difficult to make roster moves to improve your team. And, that's why some of us care.

As Denny has correctly pointed out, we are already missing out on getting the full MLE this summer because we are over the tax apron. That limits the quality of any role player we could get that would help improve our bench.

Unless we can dump one of Crabbe or Turner, we will eventually (after extending Nurk) be in repeater tax territory, which severely limits out ability to complete trades.

There are implications and ramifications to overpaying underperfoming players that reach beyond Paul Allen's checking account balance. That's why bad contracts matter.

BNM

You can't afford much with the full MLE, even if it comes in at 8 mill a season, if reported salaries figures are correct. Who would you target?

We also have plenty of role players, and pretty decent ones at that, I'd say.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Economics and law of scarcity suggests that this is how market value is determined; if everyone is overpaying, it's not overpaying, it's paying market value. A great example of this would be gas. Technically *everyone* is overpaying for gas, but the market has driven prices up. Same with housing.

ET & Crabbe are not mediocre talent, imo. Evan Turner, I saw, is one of the most underrated players in the NBA according to Thibs and others. And Crabbe is a top shelf shooter. Aminu is a mediocre talent, in my opinion.

Thanks for the lesson in market value. I should have skipped college.

If everyone is trying to sign a guy for $10-12 million, and you decide to offer him for $17 million, you technically set his market value. A market of one. That's not good business practices.

Many of these contracts are the result of a change to the cap structure which significantly increased the cap. Guys who happen to be FA's during these years got abnormally-large contract offers. GENERALLY speaking, if everyone were a free agent and teams had to work with the current cap (or say $15 million above to account for the fact many teams are over the cap), guys like Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner would not be paid $17+ million per season.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

Why is that insane? Roberson is 3 years younger than Turner and has not yet reached his peak. He was just named 2nd team all defense and was a full time starter on a 47-win team. Turner was a bench player on a 41-win team.

He's not a great shooter, but neither is Turner. Roberson's TS% is actually higher (.510 vs. 491). The only reason Turner scores more is because he has a MUCH higher USG% (18.5 vs. 10.1). Unfortunately, Turner uses up way too many possessions (with turnovers and missed shots) for the offense he generates.

The big difference is in the advanced stats, where Roberson absolutely kills Turner.

Offensive Rating:
Roberson = 108
Turner = 100

Defensive Rating:
Roberson = 106
Turner = 111

Net Rating:
Roberson = +2
Turner = -11

Offensive Win Shares:
Roberson = 1.1
Turner = 0.0

Defensive Wins Shares:
Roberson = 3.1
Turner = 1.2

Total Wins Shares:
Roberson = 4.2
Turner = 1.2

Win Shares per 48:
Roberson = .085
Turner = .035

Offensive Box +/-
Roberson = -2.1
Turner = -2.5

Defensive Box +/-
Roberson = 2.1
Turner = -0.1

Box +/-
Roberson = 0.0
Turner = -2.6

Value over Replacement Player:
Roberson = 1.2
Turner = -0.3

Both are below average offensively. Roberson is an elite defender. Turner is an average defender. Roberson is an above average player overall, because he is one of the top 4 defensive wings in the league. Turner is a below average player overall because he does nothing at an elite level and several things below average (shooting, turnovers, etc.). Roberson is three years younger and apparently, will be making about $3 million a year less than Turner - and you called that insane.

So yes, Evan Turner is overpaid. So is Allen Crabbe and so is Meyer Leonard. Sure, after last summer's spending spree, you can point out a couple specific examples (Chandler Parsons and Timofey Mosgov) of players who are even more overpaid, but that doesn't change the fact that, based on their production, Turner, Crabbe and Leonard are all overpaid.

BNM

Not too interested in advanced stats when you're comparing someone who had to integrate their game with a brand new team, got hurt, then made a major trade (Nurk) and had to adjust again. I stated the same thing when someone said Danny Green was 'far' superior. Especially when that person is ball dominant and plays with ball dominant guards. I'll be more interested in how Turner plays after this year. Roberson has been with the same team and same backcourt partner for years now.

Roberson is an elite defender - can't dribble, drive, shoot or pass - and when he does it's because he is literally WIDE open because teams DO NOT guard him and he has the advantage of playing with the league MVP (which also impacts why he doesn't have a high usg% or turnover%) because when Westbrook passes to him, it's for him to shoot the wide open shot that coaches have schemed to allow. I recall him being benched in the playoffs for this reason and failure to make free throws. If his shot (which sucks) isn't falling, he doesn't have the ability to put it on the floor and get to the rim or mid range and makes it easier to zero in on Westbrook, as he provides no ball handling or passing relief. Tony Allen at least could get to the rim and attack to make up for his lackluster shot.



Turner, on the other hand, is pretty much the opposite. Except he doesn't have the greatest 3pt shot. Neither did Gerald Henderson, but teams wouldn't give him 10 ft of room to shoot wide open shots.

 

[tester551]

It's really a simple question. Are the Blazers better without Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner?

Not, are they more flexible financially?

Not, do they get made fun of less by people on reddit?

Not, can unrealistic sign and trades happen?

I don't think they are. Those guys might not live up to their contracts as far as the analysts at ESPN are concerned, but I think they can both help the team win games. Which, thank goodness, our rich as fuck owner cares about most.

This question is a false dichotomy.
If Blazers did not have Crabbe or Turner, they would have been replaced with other players. Now I'm not saying the other players would be any better, but the right players could have produced enough to match the contribution of these two at much less cost.

 

[Denny Crane]

Honestly not familiar with Hoiberg's style. What types of players are particularly suited for it?

3pt shooting.

Odd because the GM duo there (Gar Foreman/Paxson) enabled Hoiberg with a starting backcourt of Wade and Rondo (awful 3pt shooters).

 

[PtldPlatypus]

3pt shooting.

Odd because the GM duo there (Gar Foreman/Paxson) enabled Hoiberg with a starting backcourt of Wade and Rondo (awful 3pt shooters).

So, clearly they need Crabbe along with Leonard.

 

[Denny Crane]

So, clearly they need Crabbe along with Leonard.

With Butler gone, they have Wade and LaVine at SG (I guess LaVine will play SF or something). I bet they'd love to have Crabbe anyway. As would a lot of teams.

There's been talk the Bulls might buy out Wade, though Wade isn't going to let them be cheap about it. Wade would then likely join LeBron in Cleveland.

Without Wade, Crabbe would be even more desirable for them. He'd likely start there.

They not only have Rondo's expiring deal (ETO), they have some cap space, too. At least before the Butler deal.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

Thanks for the lesson in market value. I should have skipped college.

If everyone is trying to sign a guy for $10-12 million, and you decide to offer him for $17 million, you technically set his market value. A market of one. That's not good business practices.

Many of these contracts are the result of a change to the cap structure which significantly increased the cap. Guys who happen to be FA's during these years got abnormally-large contract offers. GENERALLY speaking, if everyone were a free agent and teams had to work with the current cap (or say $15 million above to account for the fact many teams are over the cap), guys like Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner would not be paid $17+ million per season.

I agree, college is a waste of time for business and economics. You learn a lot more building and running your own company in the real world. You can find the information they teach on the web. Glad you agree!

That's great business practice if you're trying to take top talent from another firm and bring them to your firm. Usually, that's the only way to recruit proven skilled work from another top firm. At least, that's how I do it. 'Hey, do you want to uproot your life and come work for me for the same wage you're currently working for?' is not a great recruitment pitch. 'Hey will you relocate for a 15% raise and relocation expenses?' is a much better sales pitch; and a VERY good business practice, in fact, that's how I've hired most of my employees and built my brand. Some were offered to the same package by their employer to stay (restricted free agency if you will) and chose to stay, some chose not to give them the same package, and some were unrestricted if you will and just wanted a new start. Technically I set the market by being a market of one. You know how I got that business model? Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nike

And it works because if I didn't think that person was worth it, I wouldn't have offered them a job at that rate. It was 'overpaying' relative to their current wage and position, but it was underpaying for what future value they would bring me and how I perceived their value to my company and its future. Players are the same.

Teams are working with the current cap and they are still going to give out ridiculous (perceived) values for players. They know how it impacts them today, tomorrow, 5 years from now. The cap will continue to rise and they will continue to pay more and inflate salaries. If everyone were a free agent you are correct, they would not make 15+ mill per season because the rule of scarcity wouldn't be in effect (oh there I go on economics again, my bad). You would have 30 players perceived to be stars making the most, then the next wave, until you create a massive gulf between upper echelon players making a majority of the cap and mid level to role players and bench players making almost nothing. Free agency dictates that those mid level and below guys still get paid, because, well there isn't 30 stars in free agency every year and teams have to spend money somehow. Might as well try and accumulate assets (or not let them go for nothing).

 

[tester551]

With Butler gone, they have Wade and LaVine at SG (I guess LaVine will play SF or something). I bet they'd love to have Crabbe anyway. As would a lot of teams.

There's been talk the Bulls might buy out Wade, though Wade isn't going to let them be cheap about it. Wade would then likely join LeBron in Cleveland.

Without Wade, Crabbe would be even more desirable for them. He'd likely start there.

They not only have Rondo's expiring deal (ETO), they have some cap space, too. At least before the Butler deal.

Incorrect. Rondo's contract is partially guaranteed for $3M. It becomes fully guaranteed tonight, if not cut before hand. His contract does NOT have an option on it.

 

[Denny Crane]

Incorrect. Rondo's contract is partially guaranteed for $3M. It becomes fully guaranteed tonight, if not cut before hand. His contract does NOT have an option on it.

Fine. It's still got $10M in cap relief if traded by today. He'd have to be waived today, too.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Not too interested in advanced stats when you're comparing someone who had to integrate their game with a brand new team, got hurt, then made a major trade (Nurk) and had to adjust again. I stated the same thing when someone said Danny Green was 'far' superior. Especially when that person is ball dominant and plays with ball dominant guards. I'll be more interested in how Turner plays after this year. Roberson has been with the same team and same backcourt partner for years now.

Fine, completely ignore the shit season Turner just had and cherry pick the best season of his entire seven year NBA career - his last year in BOS. The advanced stats are much closer, but the edge still goes to Roberson. Roberson is better, younger and at $15 million a year would be cheaper, and you called that insane. What does that make Turner's contract?

I actually like Evan Turner, and hope he can somehow carve out a role on this team. But, that's the problem, guys making $17+ million a year should not need to carve out a role for themselves. They should have a clearly defined role and be reasonably good at it.

BNM

 

[Scalma]

It was half-truth, half-sarcasm. Not that I'd expect you to understand that.

So which part was sarcasm then?

 

[Scalma]

Rondo for Leonard? I could deal with that.

I still think Leonard is worth more than a salary dump. I find it hard to believe that Miles Plumlee has more value than Meyers Leonard.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

So which part was sarcasm then?

The whole thing - like I said, half-sarcasm, half-truth. Most people here understand what market value is. As far as Evan Turner, that was a market of one at the price we paid. Just because we established his "market value" does not make it a good decision. I wouldn't pay $500k for a house nobody else would even pay $360k for.

I thought it was pretty obvious I was poking fun at the concept that Crabbe and ET aren't overpaid and that teams are willing to overpay. We had to overpay to get a free agent to come here.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

Fine, completely ignore the shit season Turner just had and cherry pick the best season of his entire seven year NBA career - his last year in BOS. The advanced stats are much closer, but the edge still goes to Roberson. Roberson is better, younger and at $15 million a year would be cheaper, and you called that insane. What does that make Turner's contract?

I actually like Evan Turner, and hope he can somehow carve out a role on this team. But, that's the problem, guys making $17+ million a year should not need to carve out a role for themselves. They should have a clearly defined role and be reasonably good at it.

BNM

Once again, not doing that, because that doesn't reflect his new teammates, system, or chemistry with them. I'm curious how he does with PDX moving forward, nothing else.

I'm not sure if you are in this camp - but I know a lot of people wanted to avoid DeAndre because he can't shoot FTs. Same with Dwight. 'Can't play him in the 4th Q' they said...

It's insane because he can't play in playoff games. He CANNOT be on the floor despite his amazing defense. And he really can't be in 4th quarters. He is ZBo without the ball. He is a blackhole on offense without having the ball.

Don't take it from me though,

http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/04/28...g-free-agency-after-impactful-playoff-series/

I'd rather be paying the guy who can play in any given situation and not be sitting on the bench because he can't make 4/10 free throws. Andre Roberson is a situation player. Evan Turner is not.

 

[chzbrgr]

Here's the thing. We had cap room that wouldn't roll into this summer. So we gave the cap room to the best player we could get. Turner. Then Crabbe was merely matching an offer. But why on earth would anyone give JJ Reddick $20 million?!?

Ask yourself who would you rather have at 20m Crabbe or Reddick? Everyone with any BBIQ picks Reddick and thats all you have to know really about Crabbe's contract. He's getting paid like a high quality starter and he plays like a low quality bench role player.

Here's a hot take for you I would rather have Meyers Lenoard's contract on the books rather than Crabbes everything else being equal. For the simple reason that Meyers actually could (not that he will) play to the level he's getting paid at Crabbe cannot.

 

[Scalma]

Ask yourself who would you rather have at 20m Crabbe or Reddick? Everyone with any BBIQ picks Reddick and thats all you have to know really about Crabbe's contract. He's getting paid like a high quality starter and he plays like a low quality bench role player.

Guess my BBIQ is low then. 25 year old Crabbe > 33 year old Redick. Unless we're only talking about a one year contract, which were obviously not.

 

[Scalma]

Give Crabbe Redicks shots and he'll produce about the same. Redick puts up 6 threes a game, Crabbe less than 4. Redick 11.8 FGA, Crabbe 8.2.

But again, my BBIQ is low.

 

[Sweetriverphil]

This question is a false dichotomy.
If Blazers did not have Crabbe or Turner, they would have been replaced with other players. Now I'm not saying the other players would be any better, but the right players could have produced enough to match the contribution of these two at much less cost.

If the other hypothetical players aren't any better then what does it matter?

Our ability to improve the roster is more restricted, but I think the only realistic way we improve the team is through trades anyway.

 

[chzbrgr]

Give Crabbe Redicks shots and he'll produce about the same. Redick puts up 6 threes a game, Crabbe less than 4. Redick 11.8 FGA, Crabbe 8.2.

But again, my BBIQ is low.

Cause that market for Crabbe is so hot right now

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Give Crabbe Redicks shots and he'll produce about the same. Redick puts up 6 threes a game, Crabbe less than 4. Redick 11.8 FGA, Crabbe 8.2.

How much of that is due to differences in their mentalities, though? I've never seen anything in game to suggest that Crabbe doesn't have plenty of opportunity to shoot--he simply doesn't take a lot of the opportunity afforded to him. If he truly is the elite shooter his supporters claim him to be, he should be willing to take significantly more than 8.2 shots per game.

 

[Sweetriverphil]

Cause that market for Crabbe is so hot right now

Crabbe isn't a free agent.

Remember the last time he was a free agent?

 

[Scalma]

Cause that market for Crabbe is so hot right now

If Crabbe was an UFA I'd put good money on him getting the same contract he got last year.

And how do we know what Crabbes market is or isn't? Just because you don't value him doesn't mean GMs feel the same way. Lately Olshey has mentioned Crabbe with Dame, CJ, and Nurk among the core. Didn't mention Harkless, Turner, or anybody else.