IF Oden...

[The Sebastian Express]

Well another thing is that Nate freely admitted to telling Oden to not back away and track the player when he's switched on the pick and roll. He said that is "lazy defense like Shaq learned" and he wanted Greg to "learn how to defend the switch". So that didn't help in the foul department.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

I think most of that comes from taking a year off because of microfracture surgery, dealing with learning to trust his knee again, injuring his foot, and then injuring his other knee. His lower body is basically screwing him over at this point I think. Plus the added weight of the top of his body. It's like he's relearning to play the game with a different body which is why I am hoping the trainers have a new approach with him this off-season.

Mostly I figure if I can wait through four years of Travis, Sebastian to Ha, Viktor, Sergei, Charles Smith, Ratliff and Shareef then I can wait two years for Greg to recover from microfracture surgery. Especially while Brandon has decided during this time waiting for Greg he's going to turn himself into a superstar.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

To be honest, watching Ha, Telfair, Khryapa was a lot more tolerable than watching Oden struggling to run up and down the floor, much less play basketball.

 

[bigbailes]

If you are insinuating this is a problem only because Blazers fans had unrealistic expectation for him, then you are wrong. Just about EVERY basketball experts and their mothers projected Oden to be the next dominant big man. He wasn't projected as a project AT ALL. He was thought of as ready to contribute from the getgo.

his offensive game was never that good. he got by with being bigger/stronger and usually quicker than the guys guarding him in the college game. he was supposed to be a dominant defensive big man right away. i will give you that, and GO has been a disappointment so far. he even said it himself when he graded his season a C-. but the hand wringing and gnashing of teeth is just plain stupid. let the guy develop and see where he is two years from now instead of freaking out and calling him a bust after his rookie season.

 

[RW#30]

I don't think Oden fooled us. I think the injury pretty much turned Oden into a different (for the worse) kind of player. He is no longer the gazelle running the floor, no longer the freak athlete big man who can simply overwhelm his opponents with his sheer athleticism. He's now a slow, lumbering big man who has to use his strength to overpower his opponent.

He is no longer in college.

 

[azsun67]

I can't wait for all you doubters to jump on the Oden wagon when he starts playing better. All the reasons for his struggles have been listed about a million times so won't lis them. I am in the camp that Odne will not be a bust. I am a little surprised at the stats he is going to have to put up for some people to not call him a bust. With Roy, LMA and an upgrade at PG or SF there won't be that many points left for him to get. He will never be our first or second option on offense so much more then 12 points is not going to happen.

You peole just need to get off his back, let him develop as a player, and then sit back and enjoy what the Blazers are going to do for the next 5-10 years.

 

[Shooter]

I don't think Oden fooled us. I think the injury pretty much turned Oden into a different (for the worse) kind of player. He is no longer the gazelle running the floor, no longer the freak athlete big man who can simply overwhelm his opponents with his sheer athleticism. He's now a slow, lumbering big man who has to use his strength to overpower his opponent.

That wouldn't explain his bad hands, or his poor instincts. I get really tired of people defending Oden against all charges simply because of his surgery. The surgery didn't take away his entire game.

 

[blue32]

clean the chipped bone up and get some conditioning, and foot work in, and he'll be a new player next year, i hope.

 

[Stevenson]

Oden, in retrospect

I, like many here, gave him the benefit of the doubt all year.

But in reality, maybe he's not all that that, and maybe he's not going to be. He sure has a LONG way to go if he is.

 

[Pritchslap Madness]

Re: Oden, in retrospect

Oden still has the potential to be the guy we thought we were drafting. Next season is really going to tell us if he has it in him to reach that potential.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Re: Oden, in retrospect

He may never live up to the hype or be what we expected him to be. But him losing weight and gaining his freakish athleticism back and being a 16/12/2 player in his prime along with great D and a refined offensive game that helps the team greatly because he gets doubled a lot... I think that would be enough for us, and is what i'm hoping for.

Don't give up hope though, man. He will be alright... he had everything going against him this year and he himself rated himself low and said he can do much better. He will be much better next year.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

at what point would you consider him a bust? If by his 3rd and 4th seasons he's still averaging pedestrian numbers, would you then consider him a bust?

The "bust" label is largely associated with where you are picked in the draft. If Batum doesn't improve over where he is now, would he be considered a bust? Probably not because he was a very late pick and he is a serviceable role player.

Oden, on the other hand, was a #1 pick and especially when you factor in the opportunity cost (the forgoing of Kevin Durant), having a serviceable role-playing Oden would in most respects be considered a bust.

However, such judgments are often easy to make two or three years down the road.

If we had Durant, we'd probably love his offensive prowess but complain about his defense, etc. Perhaps we'd look at him as an upgraded Outlaw (but knowing us, we'd still question many aspects of his game).

Sometimes the opportunity costs (for example, Martell over Paul) result in better payoffs down the road (we got Roy & Aldridge); sometimes they are just sunk costs and you look back in hindsight (great to have) and say "Well, sounded good at the time".

I think any judgment of Oden at this point is suspect. One of the things that made him so highly regarded coming out of college was his athleticism. This year, coming off surgery, he didn't have that athleticism and without it, he is a serviceable, but not great center. If he'd had the MF in college and then had to wait to recover and played as he did this year, he would probably have been a mid-first round pick - not a high lottery pick.

We've seen other players recover from MF surgery and it has almost always required them at least a year (of playing) to get back to where they were before. Let's see what happens with GO over the summer and how he looks next year. At that point, the apologists/give the benefit of a doubt people won't have an excuse (hey, I'm one of them) and, I think, we'll have a better picture of who GO is and what we can expect from him in regard to long-term plans for the Blazers.

Gramps...

 

[Wizard Mentor]

That wouldn't explain his bad hands, or his poor instincts. I get really tired of people defending Oden against all charges simply because of his surgery. The surgery didn't take away his entire game.

Look, guys, relax, really..... Take a chill pill.

Oden's "entire game" wasn't "taken away".

Oden basically finished 7th in the league in rebounds/48, and he clearly is not nearly as nimble as he will be.
Yes, he was probably 1st in the league in fouls/48, but I really think that is fixable.

Even with his difficulties, he helped the blazers to be #1 in the league in rebounding %... NUMBER FREAKING ONE.

So, to the haters, the real question is...
are you just frustrated,
do you think Oden will have foul trouble for the rest of his career, or
do you think Oden will get healthier and somehow just forget how to rebound?

Regardless of how you answer, the real answer is the first. Hey, I understand. It's a frustrating time. But relax, Oden will be better than fine, he'll be great (if you have any doubts ask Eric/Kingspeed! )

 

[Minstrel]

Little early to fire up the bust train. Let's give him ONE season healthy before writing him off. Just one, single season fully recovered from the microfracture surgery.

I know: excuses, excuses.

 

[RW#30]

I recall some people were on the "Joel is over paid" wagon or "get rid of Joel" two years ago. It takes time. Duckworth sucked in San Antonio. Joel took like 5 years. This is Yao's first year out of the first round in 6 years?

We need to chill and give him sometime. I am with most of you and very disappointed with his play especially in the playoff. I hope Maurice is well soon but we need to hire Hakeem or David Robinson to work and mentor Greg. Mo was never an offensive juggernaut and the league is going away from the grind out, physical plays. Before we cut him loose give him all the help we can.

 

[rocketeer]

ok. for everyone talking about oden averaging 15/10/2 or 16/12/2 or something like that is his prime, those would be his numbers if he produces at the same rate he did this season but stayed out of foul trouble enough to play 36 minutes per game. his per 36 numbers were 14/11/2. now per 36 numbers don't necessarily mean anything, but it's not like oden was playing 10 minutes a game in mostly garbage time so his projected numbers will be way off. he basically put up 9 and 7 in 20 minutes a game. those are good numbers, he just needs to get the minutes up.

 

[LittleAlex]

I pretty much agree with you here.

To those who doesn't think Oden would be a bust considering the hypothetical stats for him: at what point would you consider him a bust? If by his 3rd and 4th seasons he's still averaging pedestrian numbers, would you then consider him a bust?

I think this off-season is HUGE for GO. If he doesn't show significant improvement, I just think chances are his ceiling won't be nearly as high as it was hyped up to be. I think the main reason will be because GO never regains close to his pre-mf surgery athleticism.

If he is still the same player in 4 years as he is now then he will be an absolute bust. Probably one of the biggest in NBA history. Certainly drafting him will haunt KP for years and years if he doesn't pan out.

That said, big men can take longer to get it going under the best of circumstances. Greg coming off of micro-fracture surgery is a tough situation to be in. I would say the next two years are going to be very important for him. Next year he needs to learn to stop committing the stupid ass foul he commits twice every single game (The one where he tries to ride the point guard/shooting guard to the baseline. That had to have happened 100 times this season). The year after he will learn to slow down and will develop a couple of go to moves in the post.

I have never felt for one second he would average more then 15 points a game. I do think he will average more then 10 rebounds a game and more then 1 block a game. I would put his absolute ceiling at 15/15/2.5. This makes him a clone of Nate Thurmond, the player I believe Oden is most like. Since Nate is in the HOF, I wouldn't complain much if I was correct in my assessment and Oden maximized his potential.

I really don't understand why Portland would need more then 15ppg from him. Roy and LaMarcus are going to be the main scorers on this team for the next ten years. Oden's contributions on the boards and on defense are going to be FAR more valuable to the team then his scoring ever could be.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If he is still the same player in 4 years as he is now then he will be an absolute bust. Probably one of the biggest in NBA history. Certainly drafting him will haunt KP for years and years if he doesn't pan out.

That said, big men can take longer to get it going under the best of circumstances. Greg coming off of micro-fracture surgery is a tough situation to be in. I would say the next two years are going to be very important for him. Next year he needs to learn to stop committing the stupid ass foul he commits twice every single game (The one where he tries to ride the point guard/shooting guard to the baseline. That had to have happened 100 times this season). The year after he will learn to slow down and will develop a couple of go to moves in the post.

I have never felt for one second he would average more then 15 points a game. I do think he will average more then 10 rebounds a game and more then 1 block a game. I would put his absolute ceiling at 15/15/2.5. This makes him a clone of Nate Thurmond, the player I believe Oden is most like. Since Nate is in the HOF, I wouldn't complain much if I was correct in my assessment and Oden maximized his potential.

I really don't understand why Portland would need more then 15ppg from him. Roy and LaMarcus are going to be the main scorers on this team for the next ten years. Oden's contributions on the boards and on defense are going to be FAR more valuable to the team then his scoring ever could be.

Because you need an elite pivot man that can command double teams and still produce shots at a fifty+ percent rate, without a dominant paint presence you don't free up enough space for your guards and wings. It's not the number of points so much as the attention teams have to devote to covering him ... this isn't quite as important in the regular season as it is in successive playoff series where you grind out possessions and wear teamd down over a two month 'second season'

 

[KingSpeed]

lots of people called yao a bust.

Yao averaged 13 & 8. Same as Amare. Neither were busts. If Oden averaged 13 & 8 this season, we all would have been ecstatic.

 

[KingSpeed]

i think most had way to have of expectations to start with. his offensive game was extremely raw coming into the league but most seemed to ignore this when we drafted him and made him out to be the next duncan/shaq/russell. it takes time for the big guys to get acclimated to the game. .

Name a single big man who only averaged 8 & 6 in his rookie year but went on to be a Hall of Fame center. Hall of Fame centers don't take time to get acclimate to the game. Most of them dominate right away or at least give numbers like 14 & 10 in their rookie year.

 

[KingSpeed]

Also- lots of critical comments about Oden in this thread, but they don't get as attacked as I do when I say the same things.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Name a single big man who only averaged 8 & 6 in his rookie year but went on to be a Hall of Fame center. Hall of Fame centers don't take time to get acclimate to the game. Most of them dominate right away or at least give numbers like 14 & 10 in their rookie year.

Greg IS in a unique position. Name me one other highly touted pick that had to have a season ending surgery with a year and half recovery time before he ever played a single minute in the NBA?

The trouble is, we are in uncharted waters with Oden, we don't know what a healthy Greg coming straight in from college would have looked like (a helluva lot more explosive I'm guessing).

 

[KingSpeed]

Greg IS in a unique position. .

Yes, Oden was/is unique. But that is not what was said. What was said that, in general, centers take time to develop. Not "centers who had surgery" but centers in general and that is flat out not true.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Little early to fire up the bust train. Let's give him ONE season healthy before writing him off. Just one, single season fully recovered from the microfracture surgery.

I know: excuses, excuses.

There is a difference between an "explanation" and an "excuse".

The knee injury may explain why he is a disappointment, but it doesn't make him any less of a disappointment.

Heck, you just don't want to man up and admit I was right - Rose is better than Oden!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Yes, Oden was/is unique. But that is not what was said. What was said that, in general, centers take time to develop. Not "centers who had surgery" but centers in general and that is flat out not true.

OK, maybe I missed something, but who said centers take time to develop and why is that not true? Or have you set the bar at Hakeem, Robinson, Chamberlain, Shaq, Russell level or it's 'bust-ville' for Oden?

 

[bigbailes]

Greg IS in a unique position. Name me one other highly touted pick that had to have a season ending surgery with a year and half recovery time before he ever played a single minute in the NBA?

The trouble is, we are in uncharted waters with Oden, we don't know what a healthy Greg coming straight in from college would have looked like (a helluva lot more explosive I'm guessing).

also most centers go very early in the draft and most of those teams are looking to rebuild. greg came into a situation where he didn't have to be the man, like shaq and others did.

 

[bigbailes]

Who's calling him a bust in this thread?

no one has out and out called him that in this thread but they have beat around the bush. and there have been plenty of threads and posts calling him a bust over the last couple months.

 

[andalusian]

Greg is unique - and he comes back from a long inactivity period and is not yet as explosive as he will be next year.

Add the fact that Greg came to a team that was playing to get into the playoffs and get HCA and he did not come as a savior as other great centers that came before him like Yao (his team went 43-39 in his rookie year) or Howard (his team won 36 games in his rookie year) or even Shaq (his team won 41 games). Those teams also did not have a good center playing the best basketball of his career in front of him. The Blazers did have Joel playing out of his mind, did have a team fighting for HCA - and the need to get the HCA has limited Greg's minutes even more than usual - because it was important to keep Joel in long minutes and Nate trusted him more - remember - Joel played all 82 games for the first time in his career this year.


With this in mind - the only thing that makes sense is to judge him on his per-minute production - he did not get long minutes because of foul trouble, his athletic ability that was not there - making it a hard adjustment for his mind - because his body could not get to the position his basketball-iq tells him he needs to be - and the team's need to secure HCA with a good center playing. If you look at Greg's per-minute production - it is off the charts.

When you do that - Greg Oden, recovering, playing a lot less minutes than either of these guys - is on the same production per minute as anyone not named Shaq. That is some scary stuff - especially when you notice that the raw, unskilled Greg Oden scored more efficiently as a rookie than either of these guys including Shaq (his TS% is the highest). Think about that for a second - and adjust your thinking.

Greg is a special special talent - and if you can not see that - you should really consider learning the game before you post...

 

[MrJayremmie]

Name a single big man who only averaged 8 & 6 in his rookie year but went on to be a Hall of Fame center. Hall of Fame centers don't take time to get acclimate to the game. Most of them dominate right away or at least give numbers like 14 & 10 in their rookie year.

You are right. Greg probably won't be a HOF center. And yes, that was what he was hyped to be but it turns out it was wrong. I still wonder how it would be like right now if he played last year, didn't put on that weight and stayed in shape with his athleticism. Getting his body back to his HS/College years (with that same athleticism) will almost automatically equal a double double in my mind. Probably 11/10 at least, even with his current skill set. That is what I think.

I also do not agree with per-minute production. Maybe for a little stretch, but for someone playing 20mpg to stretch it to 36mpg isn't doin' it for me. I think if its kept within a 5-7 minute range that would make more sense.... but i'm not going to compare Oden to Tim Duncan because their per-minute numbers were similar their rookie year. That just seems like a stretch to me, and something non-blazer fans would probably laugh at. Especially if you are comparing a 20mpg player to someone who played near 36mpg in the first place.

OK, maybe I missed something, but who said centers take time to develop and why is that not true? Or have you set the bar at Hakeem, Robinson, Chamberlain, Shaq, Russell level or it's 'bust-ville' for Oden?

Yeah, KS always puts out that arguement and when you say it will take him time he points out that the great, HOF centers didn't take time. Then he says "I thought that was what we were getting when we drafted him"...

 

[MrJayremmie]

This is what the thread was all about. I asked whether having a relatively healthy year next season and STILL producing pedestrian numbers (because of foul troubles, not fitting in with the team, Nate doesn't go to him enough, whatever, etc.), would Oden then be considered a bust. The question was simple enough. No "early to fire up the bust train" about it.

I wouldn't consider him a bust, but I would say he didn't live up to the hype.