IF Oden...

[Minstrel]

There is a difference between an "explanation" and an "excuse".

The knee injury may explain why he is a disappointment, but it doesn't make him any less of a disappointment.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "disappointment." If you mean he showed he was not worth the top pick, then yes, it has a lot of bearing on that. A temporary drop-off doesn't speak to his eventual value.

If you mean he didn't make as big an impact on this season as many expected, then yes, he was a disappointment.

Heck, you just don't want to man up and admit I was right - Rose is better than Oden!

Hmm? Again, if you mean this year, I've said several times this season that Rose was more valuable, because he played many more minutes. Long-term, I don't think Rose is a superior talent, but we'll have to wait and see.

It is interesting that in a season which led many people to label Oden a "bust," he still had a per-minute efficiency superior to Rose's, with better defense. While that doesn't make him more valuable this year (minutes played matter a lot), it's pretty impressive for a "lost season."

 

[LittleAlex]

Because you need an elite pivot man that can command double teams and still produce shots at a fifty+ percent rate, without a dominant paint presence you don't free up enough space for your guards and wings. It's not the number of points so much as the attention teams have to devote to covering him ... this isn't quite as important in the regular season as it is in successive playoff series where you grind out possessions and wear teamd down over a two month 'second season'

You are assuming I don't think Oden will get double teamed every time he touches the ball. I do in fact believe he will be doubled. That is part of why he won't average more then 15 a game. Also, that would be an average. He will probably have lows of 10 point and highs near 25 or so throughout the season.

Further still, getting 15 rebounds is HUGE. Other teams will have to dedicate multiple players to attempt and box him out.

All of the above will open up the floor for Roy and LMA which increase their scoring. More importantly, it will dramatically increase their winning.

If anyone in their right mind says that 15 and 15 is a bust, then they need to rethink their position.

 

[andalusian]

I also do not agree with per-minute production. Maybe for a little stretch, but for someone playing 20mpg to stretch it to 36mpg isn't doin' it for me. I think if its kept within a 5-7 minute range that would make more sense.... but i'm not going to compare Oden to Tim Duncan because their per-minute numbers were similar their rookie year. That just seems like a stretch to me, and something non-blazer fans would probably laugh at.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. Personally - what non-blazer fans would laugh at or not does not matter to me. I honestly believe that Greg's position is unique - and his lack of playing time was because of a unique situation - which leaves me unable to compare him to other franchise centers at their rookie year based on total production. At this point - you can either make up your mind and say - he did not meet their total production thus he has no chance of being as good as them - or you can ask - why did he not meet their total production. It is pretty clear why he did not get the minutes - and when you look at that - the next step is to decide if you want to judge him based on different criteria without any objective data or not. The only objective data we have is per minute. He is clearly up there in this criteria. I still think he is the real deal.

 

[Minstrel]

This is what the thread was all about. I asked whether having a relatively healthy year next season and STILL producing pedestrian numbers (because of foul troubles, not fitting in with the team, Nate doesn't go to him enough, whatever, etc.), would Oden then be considered a bust. The question was simple enough. No "early to fire up the bust train" about it.

My post wasn't just about you, but the general tenor of certain posters who seem to feel this season was a serious blow to Oden's prospect status.

If he produced a season like this one next year, I'd be worried. You can't label someone a bust until his career is done (or pretty well-defined) and he's proven not to live up to expectations. For example, if Oden in his fifth season (he'd still only be 25-26) broke out as a consistent 30/15 player, would he be a bust despite weak seasons prior to that? No. However, if next season is basically like this one, I'd consider him on the road to becoming a bust.

However, considering he'd be meeting even KingSpeed's statistical standards this year if he weren't foul-prone, and since I don't think fouls are likely to be career-long malady, I'm pretty confident that he'll be significantly better next year.

 

[MrJayremmie]

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. Personally - what non-blazer fans would laugh at or not does not matter to me. I honestly believe that Greg's position is unique - and his lack of playing time was because of a unique situation - which leaves me unable to compare him to other franchise centers at their rookie year based on total production. At this point - you can either make up your mind and say - he did not meet their total production thus he has no chance of being as good as them - or you can ask - why did he not meet their total production. It is pretty clear why he did not get the minutes - and when you look at that - the next step is to decide if you want to judge him based on different criteria without any objective data or not. The only objective data we have is per minute. He is clearly up there in this criteria. I still think he is the real deal.

I could see using per36 with 2 players playing minutes close to each other... but lets say Duncan's rookie year he played 35mpg. To compare Greg's 20mpg stats and inflate them to the per36 stats and then inflate Duncan's by 1 minute just doesn't seem fair to Duncan... simply because we have no idea if Oden would get those stats if he played 36 minutes, which is why i'd only do it if either Greg were closer to the 36 minute mark or if him and Timmy were close to each other (lets say Duncan was at 24mpg or so).

 

[andalusian]

As I said - you are entitled to your opinion. Personally - I think this is the only way we can really semi-objectively evaluate Oden given his disappointing year. Giving up hope on him because of his unique situation is just as "unfair" as using per-36 numbers - more so in my opinion.

 

[Minstrel]

I get tired of hearing the per36 argument for GO. True, it is a good sign ... but there are the likes of Ike Diogu who always has fantastic per36 stats that doesn't do a damn thing in the league.

It shows that minutes are the problem for Oden, not his level of play when on the court.

And his minutes were held down by fouls, not by poor play causing McMillan to sit him down for long stretches.

Per-minute efficiency doesn't prove that he'll pan out, but it illustrates that he's playing well.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I get tired of hearing the per36 argument for GO. True, it is a good sign ... but there are the likes of Ike Diogu who always has fantastic per36 stats that doesn't do a damn thing in the league.

I agree that per36 isn't always a great measure for extrapolating production if given the minutes, but when a guy like Greg plays 22 minutes it's probably more highly correlated than with a guy like Diogu who has averaged 5-10 minutes per game for his career.

 

[Minstrel]

That's a fair answer. I suppose the word "bust" are defined differently by each person. I always go with the percentage. I think history has shown that the odds are very slim that a player significantly improves after his third and fourth season.

Actually, when I was looking at players who jumped straight from high school a few years ago, most of them showed their big jump in year 3. I don't know whether Oden, someone who went to college for just one year but also missed an entire year rehabbing, should be compared to prep-to-pro players.

My thinking is that if he doesn't show significant improvement next year, I'll be extremely worried and year 3 will be a make-or-break year for him. If he hasn't become an above-average player by year 3, I'll lose faith in his ever being anything special.

In fact, even this season I would be quite worried if he weren't productive when on the floor. But he has been, despite not having his explosiveness back, so I'm not at all worried. But he does need to have significantly more impact next season.

For example, I'd think it is safe to label Kwame Brown and Darko busts, even if their careers are far from being over. Brown and/or Darko could break out and average 20/10 for the next 5 seasons or so, but what are the chances of that hapenning?

I agree, but you'll note I said "until their careers are over (or well-defined)." I consider Kwame Brown's and Darko Milicic's careers to be quite defined by this point.

 

[andalusian]

I get tired of hearing the per36 argument for GO. True, it is a good sign ... but there are the likes of Ike Diogu who always has fantastic per36 stats that doesn't do a damn thing in the league.

If you are tired of hearing about - do not discuss it on a public forum of Blazers fans when we are trying to have a serious discussion about our expectations for him. There is, unfortunately, a series of mishaps that have prevented Greg from getting more minutes this year. Like it or not - at this point - this is the only reasonable measure to his effectiveness as a player.

Ike is in his 6th year in the league playing for his 6th year and has never averaged as many minutes per game as Greg, the rookie has. This should tell you right there that there is a big difference between them.

If Greg's career continues like this year - there is definitely a place to make the comparison - but I really doubt there is a place for it given where Greg is/was this year and what his role is.

 

[andalusian]

Huh? This is the first time I have even discussed the per36 stats, but I have seen it often used to defend GO. I think that stats is weak, and I have already explained why.

For the record, I'll state my opinions and participate in whatever discussion in any manner (as long as I don't break forum rules, of course) that I like. Thank you for your concerns.

I did not mean it as a slam on you - it was just a way to explain that if you are going to participate in these discussions - expect to hear it more - because some of us do believe it makes sense in this case. That's all I wanted to say. I am sorry if it came as a slam - because it was not my intent - I just wanted to address the "I am tired of hearing about" portion of your post.