OT If the Durant/Oden draft was now instead of 2007...

[Natebishop3]

With how the NBA has evolved in the past 10 years, and with the prevalence of small ball lineups and emphasis on three point shooting... do you think Durant would be the #1 pick if that draft happened today?

I was thinking about it, and one of the main reasons why Oden was so coveted was because he was a throwback to the great centers of the 80s and 90s, but that's not really how teams think these days.

Would Oden still be the hands down #1 pick if he was coming out of college in this draft, or would Durant usurp him? I was on the fence back then, and I was pretty torn because I thought Oden could be the next Shaq, but Durant is exactly the kind of player that you want in the modern NBA.

Thoughts?

 

[Minstrel]

With no knowledge of how each player actually did in the NBA, I think Oden would still be the pick, though certainly not "hands down." Oden was supposed to be a centerpiece on both ends of the court--in that sense, you could compare his projection to someone like Tim Duncan. I think a young Tim Duncan would still be a deeply sought-after franchise player today.

Durant has turned into a defensive force, but that's not what people projected for him at the time of the draft. He was compared more to a Carmelo Anthony or--to break the "same race" comparison laws--a Larry Bird. A tall forward who could move and shoot like a guard.

Even today, I think teams would take a guy who projected as a two-way anchor over a guy who projected as "merely" a great scorer. But I do think it would be closer today than it was back then (even then, though, Durant had his adherents).

 

[Natebishop3]

With no knowledge of how each player actually did in the NBA, I think Oden would still be the pick, though certainly not "hands down." Oden was supposed to be a centerpiece on both ends of the court--in that sense, you could compare his projection to someone like Tim Duncan. I think a young Tim Duncan would still be a deeply sought-after franchise player today.

Durant has turned into a defensive force, but that's not what people projected for him at the time of the draft. He was compared more to a Carmelo Anthony or--to break the "same race" comparison laws--a Larry Bird. A tall forward who could move and shoot like a guard.

Even today, I think teams would take a guy who projected as a two-way anchor over a guy who projected as "merely" a great scorer. But I do think it would be closer today than it was back then (even then, though, Durant had his adherents).

I was thinking that as well.... but I think it would be a lot closer than it was. Plus, with the emergence of the Greek Freak, I really think the decision might be a lot tougher if it was happening today.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

If Oden fulfilled his potential, he would have changed the game. Nothing Unique about KD, he had to join 73-9 team to win a ring. If a guy came out with Oden's potential vs KDs out of college, Oden would still be drafted #1 today.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I'm not sure if Durant was viewed as only an offensive force. He had over 11 rebounds a game in college! Almost 2 steals and two blocks a game. (and as Kevin Pritchard once said: "This guy is an assassin!")

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I mean you'd still draft Anthony Davis #1 versus an Andrew Wiggins.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Nifty question. I think Durant probably gets picked first

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

Same exact everything except the year it happened? Durant still can't bench 185 once?

Most teams pick Oden.

WE might not because everyone loves Nurkic.

 

[Chris Craig]

We have Nurkic. We'd pick Durant

 

[Denny Crane]

I never saw in Oden what many of you do/did. I thought he looked like Mutombo on offense (not very good), and his college injuries robbed him of some development at least.

I would have taken Durant and kept ZBo at PF, LMA at C, Roy at SG.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

I never saw in Oden what many of you do/did. I thought he looked like Mutombo on offense (not very good), and his college injuries robbed him of some development at least.

I would have taken Durant and kept ZBo at PF, LMA at C, Roy at SG.

When Oden played for us after his injuries he was awesome. Without them...yikes.

 

[Natebishop3]

I mean you'd still draft Anthony Davis #1 versus an Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins is nowhere near as good as Durant.

 

[Nate]

I remember reading that we had the best DefRtg in the league when Oden was on the floor.

 

[Natebishop3]

The league is quite a bit different now than when Oden actually played. Part of what made him so appealing is that there really haven't been a lot of players comparable to him. Is there anyone in the league right now with his size, strength, and defensive ability?

 

[Nate]

We would've won championships if Oden was healthy.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I never saw in Oden what many of you do/did. I thought he looked like Mutombo on offense (not very good), and his college injuries robbed him of some development at least.

His only college injury was an injured wrist. It forced him to miss the first nine games of his college career and shoot his FTs left handed (and he still shot 63%). He averaged 3.3 BLK/game in college and dominated during the NCAA tournament. In the title game, the defending champ Florida Gators were clearly the better team, but Oden was easily the best player in the floor - and that was going against older, more experienced big mean Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Marreese Speights - all who would also be 1st round draft picks. Oden finished with 25 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Oden's knee injuries did not start until after we drafted him. He never had a knee injury in high school or college that caused him to miss any games. He had his first of three microfracture surgeries at the age of 19 after the Blazers drafted him in 2007. Oden is a prime example of why microfracture surgery is no longer used on competitive athletes. It never had a high success rate and the knee is never 100% after microfracture surgery. The cartridge that grows back as a result of the surgery is harder and more brittle than the original cartilage and can't take the same level of pounding as the original cartridge it replaces. Oden had it done three times by the time he was 23. No wonder his knees turned to dust.

BNM

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Wiggins is nowhere near as good as Durant.

Pre-draft comparisons and potential were similar.

 

[Denny Crane]

His only college injury was an injured wrist. It forced him to miss the first nine games of his college career and shoot his FTs left handed (and he still shot 63%). He averaged 3.3 BLK/game in college and dominated during the NCAA tournament. In the title game, the defending champ Florida Gators were clearly the better team, but Oden was easily the best player in the floor - and that was going against older, more experienced big mean Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Marreese Speights - all who would also be 1st round draft picks. Oden finished with 25 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Oden's knee injuries did not start until after we drafted him. He never had a knee injury in high school or college that caused him to miss any games. He had his first of three microfracture surgeries at the age of 19 after the Blazers drafted him in 2007. Oden is a prime example of why microfracture surgery is no longer used on competitive athletes. It never had a high success rate and the knee is never 100% after microfracture surgery. The cartridge that grows back as a result of the surgery is harder and more brittle than the original cartilage and can't take the same level of pounding as the original cartridge it replaces. Oden had it done three times by the time he was 23. No wonder his knees turned to dust.

BNM

He looked like a man among children in college. He looked like a child among men in the pros. It looked like it was going to be that way to me.

Like I said, I don't see the appeal of the guy as #1 pick and next greatest thing. I knew Durant was can't miss - "the next Kobe" is how I phrased it when talking with gambitnut back then.

 

[Boob-No-More]

He looked like a man among children in college. He looked like a child among men in the pros. It looked like it was going to be that way to me.

Like I said, I don't see the appeal of the guy as #1 pick and next greatest thing. I knew Durant was can't miss - "the next Kobe" is how I phrased it when talking with gambitnut back then.

So, he looked like a man against players like Noah and Horford in college, who were both lottery picks that became all stars, but looked like a child against men in the NBA. Bullshit. He certainly didn't look like a boy among men when he totally dominated Noah two weeks before his knee cap exploded and ended his NBA career in Portland.

It wasn't a lack of talent of the wrist injury he suffered before we drafted him that ruined his career, it was the knee injuries he incurred after we drafted him that did.

BTW, I know it was just a 21-game sample size, but at the time of Oden's final injury in POR he was leading the league in FG%, TRB% and BLK%. What more could you want from a big man, in any era, than elite rebounding, elite defense and efficient scoring? The league may have changed, but none of those things ever go out of style.

BNM

 

[Nate]

He looked like a man among children in college. He looked like a child among men in the pros. It looked like it was going to be that way to me.

Like I said, I don't see the appeal of the guy as #1 pick and next greatest thing. I knew Durant was can't miss - "the next Kobe" is how I phrased it when talking with gambitnut back then.

He looked like he would've destroyed Dwight Howard in the 2009 finals.

 

[ripcityboy]

I honestly don't know, folks. I don't follow the daft closely enough or know the draft tendencies of what teams are looking for nowadays. Now the MLB Draft is going on, you want to talk the why the Braves build around young HS position players or the Yankees go for college pitchers 9 out of ten picks, I can tell you their reasoning. But how the game of basketball has evolved sine we took Oden, I got a vague understanding of organizational strategies and that it.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Pre-draft comparisons for Durant was a thin T-Mac. Oden was Bill Russell/David Robinson/Mutumbo.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/greg-oden

NBA Comparison: David Robinson/Bill Russell

Strengths: One of those dominant centers that surfaces in the high school ranks every 10 or so years Has the size and NBA ready body that few his age possess Great athlete who runs the court with ease and excellent leaping ability Gets great position in the post and most importantly gets his body wide to give guards a good target to pass into Wherever the ball goes, Oden works the lane constantly working to get open Does a great job of keeping the ball high away from opposing guards Finishes well around the lane with authority via dunk, lay-up or put back Defensively he is a top notch shot blocker Possesses the lateral quickness to be an excellent help defender Owns pro timing as he doesnt bite on pump fakes easily Plays the game with a calm and mature demeanor Hands have a rare quality in that they are both soft and strong Rarely do passes get bobbled nor do balls get stripped from his hands Excellent rebounder who is not only a good rebounder in his area but is also terrific out of position Post game has already shown good improvement since high school Potentially Oden has few peers and has yet to scratch the surface of his potential Underrated passer who has shown decent court vision Does a great job of recognizing double teams and reacting to them Great character guy. Despite all the publicity Oden has received from an early age, he has remained humble and hungry to improve as a player

Weaknesses: Offensively Oden isnt very polished with his back to the basket Nor does he possess a big assortment of moves Needs to expand his shooting range, as of right now Oden is very uncomfortable facing the basket Has struggled when playing against strong aggressive players Although this is to be expected when you consider his age Still learning what he's capable of, especially against big and strong opponents, he can go through periods when he doesnt dominate and often he will defer to his teammates Post footwork could stand to refinement From a fundamental stand point, he is still behind in development. As of right now he is often relying on pure athleticism and size Doesnt always finish after contact Can get into foul trouble when faced with physically aggressive players

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/kevin-durant

NBA Comparison: Dirk Nowitzki/Tracy McGrady
Strengths: A dynamic wing player with freakish length and agility and a scorers mentality ... Has the ability to essentially score at will on the college level … A special player offensively, who has fully developed post skills to go along with an NBA-range jumper … His ability to pull up off the dribble is absolutely illegal for a 6-10 player … Simply dominates even elite NCAA competition and top defenders, as his combination of height, length, athleticism, and skill is completely unrivaled on this level … Despite a laid-back nature, he has developed leadership and demands the ball in crunch time … He's skilled and instinctual enough to have an offense run through him … Already a great rebounder who understands the importance of boxing out and can simply leap over players who try to push him out of the lane … Has the potential to become a great defender with his 7-5 wing span and great leaping ability … The best NCAA freshman to play in some time … Born in September, he's a year young for his grade, further adding to his intrigue!

Weaknesses: Hasn't been fully tested in terms of competition. Does he have the fire inside to maximize his abilities and develop a killer instinct? He has a laid back demeanor; will he continue to work hard after he starts cashing 7 figure checks? … Defensively, he's very lax. Tends to be too upright, and should focus more on his defensive fundamentals, getting low in his defensive stance, especially on the perimeter … Has all the potential to be a lock down defender, but doesn't put the effort in on that side of the ball … Still needs to bulk up, although he has bulked up significantly since high school. May always be skinny and adding too much weight could slow his foot speed some … Adding weight will make him more aggressive inside, as he tends to shy away from contact and can be pushed around and affected when played physical … Ball handling could still use refinement, as he is a little too high in his dribble … Shows flashes of great passing but is inconsistent … Should block more shots with his length and athleticism … Can improve upon the nuances of the game, moving without the ball, understanding where to be in help defense situations, giving equal effort on both ends of the floor etc.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

Sad to say, had we drafted Durant instead of Oden in 2007 we'd still likely have watched Durant win a ring with GS yesterday...........

 

[BlazerWookee]

Sad to say, had we drafted Durant instead of Oden in 2007 we'd still likely have watched Durant win a ring with GS yesterday...........

Not to mention we wouldn't have been able to shit-can Randolph to make room for LaMarcus at the 4...

 

[ripcityboy]

Not to mention we wouldn't have been able to shit-can Randolph to make room for LaMarcus at the 4...

Wow. Good point. Hadn't thought of that. Kind of like if we hadn't drafted Bowie we wouldn't gotten Buck. I realize it's of small consolation but it does exist.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Sure the game has changed and hindsight is always 20:20, but at the time of the draft, 29 of 30 GMs said they would have taken Oden over Durant. He was going to be the best center since Shaq and his defense was being compared to Bill Russell, David Robinson and Hakeem.

Of course, if you gave that survey now, most (all) GMs would say Durant, but they have seen how this movie ends. Not only do they know how the game has changed, but they know all about Oden's injuries and that Durant just won a ring and Finals MVP.

But ask yourself this, even knowing how the game has changed, if Shaq was in this draft, would he not be the consensus No. 1 pick? What about Bill Russell? Tim Duncan? David Robinson? Hakeem?

Other than maybe the 2003 draft, when LeBron went No. 1, any of those guys would have been the No. 1 pick in the draft this year, last year, next year, every year in the last 40 and likely every draft in the next 40.

If healthy, Oden could have been a once a generation, game changing player at both ends of the floor. Even though his offense wasn't highly polished, he was physically overpowering and had a nice touch around the basket with both hands (ironically, the wrist injury forced him to learn to use his left hand). On the other end, his defense was game changing. His rebounding was elite on both ends.

A healthy Oden, combined with a healthy Roy and Aldridge would have made us contenders for a decade. Injuries robbed us of Oden and Roy. It happens. At least in Roy's case, the red flags were there. He'd already had multiple knee surgeries. Not so, in Oden's case.

Too bad it didn't work out...

BNM

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Who is this Odon person you guys are talking about?

 

[BlazerWookee]

Who is this Odon person you guys are talking about?

You know. Yaki. Has a brother named Niko. Small hands. Smells like cabbage.

 

[Dougnsalem]

Who is this Odon person you guys are talking about?

 

[Minstrel]

In his first two seasons, these were his Defensive Ratings: 104 and 100. So he was good defensively as a rookie (after coming back from an injury) and great as a second-year player. His Rebound Rate was 18 as a rookie and 19.5 as a second-year player.

But no one really disputes his defensive and rebounding potential. It's his offensive potential that a certain someone thinks was lacking. So how productive was he in the NBA?

First Year: 116 Offensive Rating / 18.1 PER / .599 TS%
Second Year: 118 Offensive Rating / 23.1 PER / .647 TS%

Clearly, an offense-killer in his first experience with the NBA.

Oden had no clear flaws as a player (aside from, unfortunately, health). He had the potential to be a defensive anchor and offensive centerpiece. The only issues he had in those 82 games he played his first two years was with fouling and turnovers. In other words, the two things you'd expect a very young player to struggle with in his first NBA experience. Both highly correctable and not at all uncommon in young players.

There's little question in my mind that, given his scouting pedigree, college dominance and NBA productivity, he would have been an NBA superstar had he remained healthy.